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tlance
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2017 was a very interesting year. Typically the MVP goes to the best player on the best team, but the video game numbers from Harden and Westbrook coupled with the pairing of KD and Steph made them impossible to deny. With star players arriving in both Houston and OKC, however, I think 2018 plays out much differently.
Here are my favorites, the percentage chance I give each player to win and what they need to happen to get there.
1: Kevin Durant- 35%: he wasn't going to win last year, no matter what. Now, he has firmly established himself as the Warriors' best player and greatly improved his defense. For KD to win, he needs to repeat last year's stats, play at least 70 games and the Warriors must again flirt with 70 wins.
2: Kawhi Leonard- 30%: Kawhi needs to continue to do Kawhi things and lead the Spurs to a 2 or 3 seed in the West, while hoping Curry plays well enough to cast some doubt on who the Warrior's MVP really is.
3: LeBron James- 25%: LeBron is still the best, but the gap is as narrow as it has ever Been. Cleveland's normal regular season malaise has prevented him from being a serious MVP candidate the last couple years, but the Kyrie drama might actually help him on this front. Cleveland is considered to be in such a bad spot currently that if LeBron can lead them to 57+ wins and a number 1 seed with his usual numbers, the trophy could return to The Land.
4: Russell Westbrook- 5%: for a player to win back to back MVPs, he generally has to produce on at least the same level that he did the prior year. Westbrook' numbers are going to decline with the addition of Paul George. If he is able to post 25-7-10 while leading the Thunder to 55+ wins though, he will be in the conversation.
5: Steph Curry- 2%: Steph won't be a realistic candidate unless he somehow comes close to his numbers from 2016. That isn't likely unless KD misses a significant number of games.
6: James Harden- 1%: his numbers are going to fall with CP3 in town. I don't see him doing enough. For him to have any chance, he needs to contend for the scoring title and the Rockets need to finish 2nd in the West.
7: John Wall- 1%: outside of Leonard and James, nobody is more important to their team's success. If the Wizards have a magical season, win 55 + and finish first in the East, Wall just might find himself in the top 3. This is a regular season award after all.
Rest of the Field- 1%: Giannis, KAT, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, Nikola Jokic and Blake Griffin are others I could see putting themselves in the discussion.
Clearly I think 1 of the big 3 wins this year. What do you all think? Discuss.
Here are my favorites, the percentage chance I give each player to win and what they need to happen to get there.
1: Kevin Durant- 35%: he wasn't going to win last year, no matter what. Now, he has firmly established himself as the Warriors' best player and greatly improved his defense. For KD to win, he needs to repeat last year's stats, play at least 70 games and the Warriors must again flirt with 70 wins.
2: Kawhi Leonard- 30%: Kawhi needs to continue to do Kawhi things and lead the Spurs to a 2 or 3 seed in the West, while hoping Curry plays well enough to cast some doubt on who the Warrior's MVP really is.
3: LeBron James- 25%: LeBron is still the best, but the gap is as narrow as it has ever Been. Cleveland's normal regular season malaise has prevented him from being a serious MVP candidate the last couple years, but the Kyrie drama might actually help him on this front. Cleveland is considered to be in such a bad spot currently that if LeBron can lead them to 57+ wins and a number 1 seed with his usual numbers, the trophy could return to The Land.
4: Russell Westbrook- 5%: for a player to win back to back MVPs, he generally has to produce on at least the same level that he did the prior year. Westbrook' numbers are going to decline with the addition of Paul George. If he is able to post 25-7-10 while leading the Thunder to 55+ wins though, he will be in the conversation.
5: Steph Curry- 2%: Steph won't be a realistic candidate unless he somehow comes close to his numbers from 2016. That isn't likely unless KD misses a significant number of games.
6: James Harden- 1%: his numbers are going to fall with CP3 in town. I don't see him doing enough. For him to have any chance, he needs to contend for the scoring title and the Rockets need to finish 2nd in the West.
7: John Wall- 1%: outside of Leonard and James, nobody is more important to their team's success. If the Wizards have a magical season, win 55 + and finish first in the East, Wall just might find himself in the top 3. This is a regular season award after all.
Rest of the Field- 1%: Giannis, KAT, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, Nikola Jokic and Blake Griffin are others I could see putting themselves in the discussion.
Clearly I think 1 of the big 3 wins this year. What do you all think? Discuss.
