Who wins NL MVP??

[redseat]

Let's not forget that a 1B fields the ball more than a CF so one could argue that a 1B is more important than a CF. I understand it doesn't neccessarily make you an excellent player if you play 1b since we all know a lot of them aren't anything special and are there for their bats but what about 90-95% of the time the 1B is fielding the ball somehow, whether it be a throw from another position player or the ball hit to them. Not to mention they have to have "decent" reaction time on pick off attempts.

 

[Darkstone42]

It's between McCutchen and Goldschmidt, as far as I'm concerned. As has been pointed out, they were actually pretty similar as hitters overall, with slight edges to Goldschmidt in wOBA (.404 to 0.393) and wRC+ (156 to 155). Goldschmidt had a lot more home runs and RBIs, and six more runs than McCutchen, but McCutchen had 27 SB to Goldschmidt's 15, as well, a small indication of what is actually a very large baserunning advantage in McCutchen's favor.

For the hitting part, keep in mind that, while Chase Field is pretty neutral, PNC Park is very pitcher friendly, and is in particular power-zapping for right-handed hitters. And I don't just mean home runs. PNC doesn't give up doubles, either. Only AT&T Park is worse in that regard.

McCutchen wasn't the best defensive centerfielder in the NL, but he wasn't far off it, and no matter what you try to tell me, I will always hold center field as a more important defensive position. Why? The majority of plays at first base are catching a ball thrown right into your chest, or very close to it. You occasionally have to make a pick, but you don't have to move to do it. Sometimes you field grounders or line drives. Overall, though, you don't need especially impressive range. A centerfielder covers the most ground in the outfield, and therefore has more responsibility in preventing hits and run-scoring opportunities by chasing down shallow flares and deep fly balls alike.

Overall, I have Goldschmidt with a slight edge in hitting, McCutchen with a large edge in baserunning, and McCutchen with a slight edge in defense, and McCutchen winning the award as a result.

 

[steveringo]

It's between McCutchen and Goldschmidt, as far as I'm concerned. As has been pointed out, they were actually pretty similar as hitters overall, with slight edges to Goldschmidt in wOBA (.404 to 0.393) and wRC+ (156 to 155). Goldschmidt had a lot more home runs and RBIs, and six more runs than McCutchen, but McCutchen had 27 SB to Goldschmidt's 15, as well, a small indication of what is actually a very large baserunning advantage in McCutchen's favor.

For the hitting part, keep in mind that, while Chase Field is pretty neutral, PNC Park is very pitcher friendly, and is in particular power-zapping for right-handed hitters. And I don't just mean home runs. PNC doesn't give up doubles, either. Only AT&T Park is worse in that regard.

McCutchen wasn't the best defensive centerfielder in the NL, but he wasn't far off it, and no matter what you try to tell me, I will always hold center field as a more important defensive position. Why? The majority of plays at first base are catching a ball thrown right into your chest, or very close to it. You occasionally have to make a pick, but you don't have to move to do it. Sometimes you field grounders or line drives. Overall, though, you don't need especially impressive range. A centerfielder covers the most ground in the outfield, and therefore has more responsibility in preventing hits and run-scoring opportunities by chasing down shallow flares and deep fly balls alike.

Overall, I have Goldschmidt with a slight edge in hitting, McCutchen with a large edge in baserunning, and McCutchen with a slight edge in defense, and McCutchen winning the award as a result.

Very well thought out and presented analysis.

 

[steveringo]

It makes me sad that this thread has gone four pages with very little devoted to what the award actually means - "Value". This award should go the the player that provided the most value to his team.

Pure statistics are very important to review, but we also need to look at teammates and standings. (Is one guy 'carrying' his team?) (Is one guy creating more wins for his team?) (Was the team in contention til the end?) (etc.)

 

[broncosmitty]

It started that way, then veered off pretty quickly. MVP talk always does that. Usually Mike Trout is involved when that happens, but not this time.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

It's between McCutchen and Goldschmidt, as far as I'm concerned. As has been pointed out, they were actually pretty similar as hitters overall, with slight edges to Goldschmidt in wOBA (.404 to 0.393) and wRC+ (156 to 155). Goldschmidt had a lot more home runs and RBIs, and six more runs than McCutchen, but McCutchen had 27 SB to Goldschmidt's 15, as well, a small indication of what is actually a very large baserunning advantage in McCutchen's favor.

For the hitting part, keep in mind that, while Chase Field is pretty neutral, PNC Park is very pitcher friendly, and is in particular power-zapping for right-handed hitters. And I don't just mean home runs. PNC doesn't give up doubles, either. Only AT&T Park is worse in that regard.

McCutchen wasn't the best defensive centerfielder in the NL, but he wasn't far off it, and no matter what you try to tell me, I will always hold center field as a more important defensive position. Why? The majority of plays at first base are catching a ball thrown right into your chest, or very close to it. You occasionally have to make a pick, but you don't have to move to do it. Sometimes you field grounders or line drives. Overall, though, you don't need especially impressive range. A centerfielder covers the most ground in the outfield, and therefore has more responsibility in preventing hits and run-scoring opportunities by chasing down shallow flares and deep fly balls alike.

Overall, I have Goldschmidt with a slight edge in hitting, McCutchen with a large edge in baserunning, and McCutchen with a slight edge in defense, and McCutchen winning the award as a result.

Under my calculations the top 4 candidates are very close to eachother... Less than 2 points seperating first and fourth... So i would certainly not be upset to see mccutchen win... He probably will win because as someone has mentioned pittsburgh became the media darlings this season... But i do see votto to be the most deserving out of them... Votto's 2 most impressive stats were 162 games and 137 walks...

Like i said what hurts Goldshmidt is the 25 GIDP and 7 Caught stealing... that is 32 extra outs that he gave... that can not be overlooked... And of course the fact he did not make the playoffs, that hurts his value...

 

[DragonfromTO]

Let's not forget that a 1B fields the ball more than a CF so one could argue that a 1B is more important than a CF. I understand it doesn't neccessarily make you an excellent player if you play 1b since we all know a lot of them aren't anything special and are there for their bats but what about 90-95% of the time the 1B is fielding the ball somehow, whether it be a throw from another position player or the ball hit to them. Not to mention they have to have "decent" reaction time on pick off attempts.

The catcher handles the ball every single pitch, is his defensive value compared to the shortstop therefore directly proportional to the number of times each handles the ball or should the context be taken into account?

 

[jdwills126]

Kershaw gets it.

IMO when you play for a large market you get a bump you may not otherwise deserve.

Goldy would and should get it but the fact the Diamondbacks missed the playoffs and Arizona does not draw a lot of outside media I see it going to CK.

 

[Darkstone42]

Under my calculations the top 4 candidates are very close to eachother... Less than 2 points seperating first and fourth... So i would certainly not be upset to see mccutchen win... He probably will win because as someone has mentioned pittsburgh became the media darlings this season... But i do see votto to be the most deserving out of them... Votto's 2 most impressive stats were 162 games and 137 walks...

Like i said what hurts Goldshmidt is the 25 GIDP and 7 Caught stealing... that is 32 extra outs that he gave... that can not be overlooked... And of course the fact he did not make the playoffs, that hurts his value...

I think Votto is the best pure hitter in the National League, and very close to the level of Miguel Cabrera, but Goldschmidt and McCutchen were essentially as good as him at the plate all-told this season, largely because of their power production, especially in Goldschmidt's case. Both were also better base runners this year, and they were both better than him defensively. Overall, I say Votto is fifth, coming in behind those two, Kershaw, and Molina.

The catcher handles the ball every single pitch, is his defensive value compared to the shortstop therefore directly proportional to the number of times each handles the ball or should the context be taken into account?

Catcher is, in fact, the most important defensive position. Controlling the running game, blocking balls in the dirt (and the effect that has on the pitcher's confidence), and pitch framing collectively contribute more to the team's defensive than any other position. An elite defensive catcher expands his pitcher's strike zone, let's the pitcher turn loose more strikeout pitches in two-strike counts, and prevents runners from taking extra bases, and they have to do these things all game long.

 

[StanMarsh51]

I think Votto is the best pure hitter in the National League, and very close to the level of Miguel Cabrera, but Goldschmidt and McCutchen were essentially as good as him at the plate all-told this season, largely because of their power production, especially in Goldschmidt's case. Both were also better base runners this year, and they were both better than him defensively. Overall, I say Votto is fifth, coming in behind those two, Kershaw, and Molina.



Catcher is, in fact, the most important defensive position. Controlling the running game, blocking balls in the dirt (and the effect that has on the pitcher's confidence), and pitch framing collectively contribute more to the team's defensive than any other position. An elite defensive catcher expands his pitcher's strike zone, let's the pitcher turn loose more strikeout pitches in two-strike counts, and prevents runners from taking extra bases, and they have to do these things all game long.

I don't think he's arguing that catcher's not the most important defensive position, but by how much....I mean, a catcher may be a part of 10x more plays or at bats (just making up a number) than a shortstop, but is his position 10x more important/valuable than a shortstop? Probably not.

 

[LALakersboy24.7]

Kershaw gets it.

IMO when you play for a large market you get a bump you may not otherwise deserve.

Goldy would and should get it but the fact the Diamondbacks missed the playoffs and Arizona does not draw a lot of outside media I see it going to CK.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I have no clue how to compare a pitcher to an offensive player for MVP, so i did not even include kershaw as a possibility to win... But he certainly could win... the only problem is was he as good as verlander the year he won???

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I have no clue how to compare a pitcher to an offensive player for MVP, so i did not even include kershaw as a possibility to win... But he certainly could win... the only problem is was he as good as verlander the year he won???

16 wins is just not good enough to win MVP!!! for a pitcher to win MVP, all his stats need to be outstanding even "team" stats....

 

[jdwills126]

Would the Dodgers have made the playoffs without Kershaw?

Would the Tigers have made the playoffs without Miggy or Verlander last season?

Davis, Trout, Goldy, all great players but in context they didn't help their team win. Thats the argument you will hear if Kershaw gets it. Not saying I agree 100% but it's a pretty effective argument.

 

[BrockForBroglio]

"I think Votto is the best pure hitter in the National League, and very close to the level of Miguel Cabrera"

That is a bold statement. I, personally, don't consider Votto even up to 75% of Cabrera's talent. Maybe 80%.

 

[Darkstone42]

"I think Votto is the best pure hitter in the National League, and very close to the level of Miguel Cabrera"

That is a bold statement. I, personally, don't consider Votto even up to 75% of Cabrera's talent. Maybe 80%.

Cabrera has more power, but there is not much difference in the quality of their contact looking over their batted ball profiles (with a slight edge, actually, to Votto), Votto's got a higher walk rate, but also a higher K-rate. Power really is the big thing that sets Cabrera ahead of Votto.

Votto also seems to have been adversely affected by his injury from last year. We'll see if he gets some of his power back next year. We'll also see how Cabrera's injury affects him next year.

 

[BigDDude]

Cabrera has more power, but there is not much difference in the quality of their contact looking over their batted ball profiles (with a slight edge, actually, to Votto), Votto's got a higher walk rate, but also a higher K-rate. Power really is the big thing that sets Cabrera ahead of Votto.

Votto also seems to have been adversely affected by his injury from last year. We'll see if he gets some of his power back next year. We'll also see how Cabrera's injury affects him next year.

More power = more better.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Catcher is, in fact, the most important defensive position. Controlling the running game, blocking balls in the dirt (and the effect that has on the pitcher's confidence), and pitch framing collectively contribute more to the team's defensive than any other position. An elite defensive catcher expands his pitcher's strike zone, let's the pitcher turn loose more strikeout pitches in two-strike counts, and prevents runners from taking extra bases, and they have to do these things all game long.

Doesn't really address my question though. I wasn't saying that catchers aren't valuable defensively, I was asking if that value was proportional to how often they handle the ball.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Doesn't really address my question though. I wasn't saying that catchers aren't valuable defensively, I was asking if that value was proportional to how often they handle the ball.

... and I see now that Stan already clarified this point. Thanks, next time I'll read the whole thread first.

 

[da55bums]

ok, Tigers fans say "the MVP should get you to the postseason".....now I see Goldschmidt being called MVP...by the same fans...lol.....so Chris Davis should get AL MVP then, by that logic...

McCutch carried the Pirates to the post season for the first time in over 20 years....if Andrew McCutchen doesn't get MVP...then they may as well add the MVP honors with the Gold Glove awards...and just throw darts at a few names on a board.

Kershaw and Votto, 2 and 3..