POLL Top 10 poll #15: #15 player in history - Runoff

[calsnowskier]

I want to go back to the pitcher debates. Maybe this should be for the next round (if necessary, I'll repost it then). Below are the ERA+ buckets for the main pitchers that have been discussed in previous threads whom have not been enshrined yet in a ranking.

Name	200+	190-199	180-189	170-179	160-169	150-159	140-149	130-139	120-129
Grover Alexander	1​	0​	0​	1​	4​	1​	0​	1​	8​
Roger Clemens	3​	1​	0​	3​	2​	1​	2​	4​	1​
Lefty Grove	1​	0​	3​	1​	3​	2​	1​	2​	0​
Randy Johnson	0​	3​	3​	1​	0​	2​	0​	3​	1​
Greg Maddux	2​	0​	2​	1​	2​	2​	1​	0​	2​
Pedro Martinez	5​	0​	1​	0​	3​	0​	2​	0​	3​
Christy Matthewson	2​	0​	0​	0​	3​	3​	0​	3​	1​
Kid Nichols	0​	0​	0​	2​	2​	1​	1​	4​	2​
Tom Seaver	0​	1​	0​	1​	1​	0​	4​	2​	4​
Cy Young	1​	1​	0​	1​	1​	2​	4​	3​	3​

Awesome post. And mainly due to the formatting…

One of the reasons I am such a Maddux wonk is because of his WHIP, and more specifically, his lack of BBs. But at the end of the day, that’s more of a predictive stat than a resume stat. The best resume stats for pitchers are ERA and W-L (and their derivatives).

And seeing as W-L has been completely abandoned (I think it is a pendulum swing that is currently WAY over correcting for decades of over-factoring), I think that leaves with ERA. So ERA+ is probably the best gauge for a pitcher.

Given that, it looks like the best from that dataset is Clemens and Martinez with Maddux and Johnson in a solid second tier.

Placing Martinez at #2 goes against the stance I have held for a while, but I am willing to be convinced. I will need to digest this for a while.

But I still have Clemens at #1.

 

[calsnowskier]

I'd rather have Rickey hit a double. 0 outs, 1 or 2. He's already at second before any pitches. Hell, he might even get to 3rd by himself.

But having Rickey on 1st increases the likelihood that the pitcher will groove one for a quick 2-0 lead in the top of the first.

 

[eaglesnut]

But having Rickey on 1st increases the likelihood that the pitcher will groove one for a quick 2-0 lead in the top of the first.

I wonder if any of Rickey's managers ever told him to just stop at first.

 

[calsnowskier]

I wonder if any of Rickey's managers ever told him to just stop at first.

I very well could be misremembering, but I do vaguely remember Rickey saying he did it on his own from time to time.

I can’t defend that “memory” in the slightest, though.

 

[LHG]

Awesome post. And mainly due to the formatting…

One of the reasons I am such a Maddux wonk is because of his WHIP, and more specifically, his lack of BBs. But at the end of the day, that’s more of a predictive stat than a resume stat. The best resume stats for pitchers are ERA and W-L (and their derivatives).

And seeing as W-L has been completely abandoned (I think it is a pendulum swing that is currently WAY over correcting for decades of over-factoring), I think that leaves with ERA. So ERA+ is probably the best gauge for a pitcher.

Given that, it looks like the best from that dataset is Clemens and Martinez with Maddux and Johnson in a solid second tier.

Placing Martinez at #2 goes against the stance I have held for a while, but I am willing to be convinced. I will need to digest this for a while.

But I still have Clemens at #1.

It is amazing what a quick work in Excel can do.

This may make things either easier or more difficult, but here is the same data in percentages (with peak seasons, total career and percentage of career ranked):

Name

200+

190-199

180-189

170-179

160-169

150-159

140-149

130-139

120-129

Seasons Ranked

Career

Ranked %

Grover Alexander

6%​

0​

0​

6%​

25%​

6%​

0​

6%​

50%​

16​

20​

80%​

Roger Clemens

18%​

6%​

0​

18%​

12%​

6%​

12%​

24%​

6%​

17​

24​

71%​

Lefty Grove

8%​

0​

23%​

8%​

23%​

15%​

8%​

15%​

0​

13​

17​

76%​

Randy Johnson

0​

23%​

23%​

8%​

0​

15%​

0​

23%​

8%​

13​

22​

59%​

Greg Maddux

17%​

0​

17%​

8%​

17%​

17%​

8%​

0​

17%​

12​

23​

52%​

Pedro Martinez

36%​

0​

7%​

0​

21%​

0​

14%​

0​

21%​

14​

18​

78%​

Christy Matthewson

17%​

0​

0​

0​

25%​

25%​

0​

25%​

8%​

12​

17​

71%​

Kid Nichols

0​

0​

0​

17%​

17%​

8%​

8%​

33%​

17%​

12​

15​

80%​

Tom Seaver

0​

8%​

0​

8%​

8%​

0​

31%​

15%​

31%​

13​

20​

65%​

Cy Young

6%​

6%​

0​

6%​

6%​

13%​

25%​

19%​

19%​

16​

22​

73%​

 

[chappee11]

Granted we are only about 1/3 of the way there with the votes, but this result is really surprising me so far. I think Griffey is a legit person for CONSIDERATION at this point, but I would put him well down the list here. But I am thinking we need a pitcher run at this point so….

I wasn’t thinking Griffey here at all and I’m surprised to see him doing so well. That said, I would have voted Griffey above Rickey and since Rickey is already off the board, Griffey can go at any time.

 

[chappee11]

I agree. Pujols was the #2 hitter of his era, and belongs here over Griffey.

I say this before doing my analysis, but I strongly believe that to be true.

I’ve been voting for Pujols for the last 2-3 rounds. He isn’t getting much support beyond me, though. Every other member of the 700HR club came off the board long ago.

 

[calsnowskier]

I wasn’t thinking Griffey here at all and I’m surprised to see him doing so well. That said, I would have voted Griffey above Rickey and since Rickey is already off the board, Griffey can go at any time.

Rickey is a unicorn, and unicorns are VERY hard to rank. I am OK with the fact that people dont support the Rickey placement. Hell, I may be the biggest Rickey wonk here, and even I agree he was ranked too high.

But Griffey is not a unicorn in any fashion outside of him being such a “swell guy”. Hell, he was my dad’s favorite player because of that. But when you look at him objectively, there are multitudes of players who at least arguably deserve to be ranked ahead of him.

Meanwhile, there are at least 4 or 5 ELITE pitchers that are getting bypassed just because we can’t settle on which to advance first, and voters are probably factoring in personal issues rather than performance issues (I will not sugar coat that any longer until the silent votes speak up and start stumping).

 

[MilkSpiller22]

It is amazing what a quick work in Excel can do.

This may make things either easier or more difficult, but here is the same data in percentages (with peak seasons, total career and percentage of career ranked):

Name

200+

190-199

180-189

170-179

160-169

150-159

140-149

130-139

120-129

Seasons Ranked

Career

Ranked %

Grover Alexander

6%​

0​

0​

6%​

25%​

6%​

0​

6%​

50%​

16​

20​

80%​

Roger Clemens

18%​

6%​

0​

18%​

12%​

6%​

12%​

24%​

6%​

17​

24​

71%​

Lefty Grove

8%​

0​

23%​

8%​

23%​

15%​

8%​

15%​

0​

13​

17​

76%​

Randy Johnson

0​

23%​

23%​

8%​

0​

15%​

0​

23%​

8%​

13​

22​

59%​

Greg Maddux

17%​

0​

17%​

8%​

17%​

17%​

8%​

0​

17%​

12​

23​

52%​

Pedro Martinez

36%​

0​

7%​

0​

21%​

0​

14%​

0​

21%​

14​

18​

78%​

Christy Matthewson

17%​

0​

0​

0​

25%​

25%​

0​

25%​

8%​

12​

17​

71%​

Kid Nichols

0​

0​

0​

17%​

17%​

8%​

8%​

33%​

17%​

12​

15​

80%​

Tom Seaver

0​

8%​

0​

8%​

8%​

0​

31%​

15%​

31%​

13​

20​

65%​

Cy Young

6%​

6%​

0​

6%​

6%​

13%​

25%​

19%​

19%​

16​

22​

73%​

if you want to add a few more columns, but it will be a little more work... but very telling...

do a # of best, top 5, top 10 per season...


for example Clemens had 8 seasons at top, 6 more seasons at top 5, and 1 more season in the top 10... total of 15 seasons in top 10....

 

[calsnowskier]

I’ve been voting for Pujols for the last 2-3 rounds. He isn’t getting much support beyond me, though. Every other member of the 700HR club came off the board long ago.

He isn’t in my clear top 3 just yet, but I absolutely am with you that he should be progressing past the nom stage at this point.

 

[calsnowskier]

And IP is an important stat for pitchers as well. Though that is a VERY era-specific stat.

But end of the day, the pitcher’s job is to record outs. And how many outs they record should not be ignored or belittled.

 

[chappee11]

It is amazing what a quick work in Excel can do.

This may make things either easier or more difficult, but here is the same data in percentages (with peak seasons, total career and percentage of career ranked):

Name

200+

190-199

180-189

170-179

160-169

150-159

140-149

130-139

120-129

Seasons Ranked

Career

Ranked %

Grover Alexander

6%​

0​

0​

6%​

25%​

6%​

0​

6%​

50%​

16​

20​

80%​

Roger Clemens

18%​

6%​

0​

18%​

12%​

6%​

12%​

24%​

6%​

17​

24​

71%​

Lefty Grove

8%​

0​

23%​

8%​

23%​

15%​

8%​

15%​

0​

13​

17​

76%​

Randy Johnson

0​

23%​

23%​

8%​

0​

15%​

0​

23%​

8%​

13​

22​

59%​

Greg Maddux

17%​

0​

17%​

8%​

17%​

17%​

8%​

0​

17%​

12​

23​

52%​

Pedro Martinez

36%​

0​

7%​

0​

21%​

0​

14%​

0​

21%​

14​

18​

78%​

Christy Matthewson

17%​

0​

0​

0​

25%​

25%​

0​

25%​

8%​

12​

17​

71%​

Kid Nichols

0​

0​

0​

17%​

17%​

8%​

8%​

33%​

17%​

12​

15​

80%​

Tom Seaver

0​

8%​

0​

8%​

8%​

0​

31%​

15%​

31%​

13​

20​

65%​

Cy Young

6%​

6%​

0​

6%​

6%​

13%​

25%​

19%​

19%​

16​

22​

73%​

Yup! Pedro is the best that any of us ever saw. I guess he didn’t do it long enough for some. But he’s a good example of the “candle that burns twice as bright, burns half as long”

 

[calsnowskier]

Yup! Pedro is the best that any of us ever saw. I guess he didn’t do it long enough for some. But he’s a good example of the “candle that burns twice as bright, burns half as long”

But he wasn’t a Timmeh, King, Santana or Koufax explosion. He just wasn’t a Walter, Clemens, Randy, Maddux or Young slow burn.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

And IP is an important stat for pitchers as well. Though that is a VERY era-specific stat.

But end of the day, the pitcher’s job is to record outs. And how many outs they record should not be ignored or belittled.

it is but it is also built in to every ratio stat already.. also built into ERA+ and WAR... although it negatively affects ERA+...

 

[chappee11]

ARod is pretty clearly >>> Griffey, right? But ARod has the “asshole” label attached to him while everyone loves Griffey.

 

[calsnowskier]

it is but it is also built in to every ratio stat already.. also built into ERA+ and WAR... although it negatively affects ERA+...

Yes and no. Today, almost with no clarification needed, a 200 IP pitcher is better than a 140 IP pitcher. Recording 60 additional innings is doing soooo much for the team’s staff in general, that the effectiveness of those 60 innings is trivial. But you could also make the argument that those 60 innings wouldn’t be there is they WEREN'T effective…

 

[calsnowskier]

ARod is pretty clearly >>> Griffey, right? But ARod has the “asshole” label attached to him while everyone loves Griffey.

ARod has the “not a baseball player” label.

 

[Cedrique]

But he wasn’t a Timmeh, King, Santana or Koufax explosion. He just wasn’t a Walter, Clemens, Randy, Maddux or Young slow burn.

You don't think Pedro's best seasons were better than Felix, Johan or Lincecum? His 1999 and 2000 seasons beat those guys easily IMO.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

ARod is pretty clearly >>> Griffey, right? But ARod has the “asshole” label attached to him while everyone loves Griffey.

i agree... but if clemens is having this much trouble getting voted in... just imagine how much trouble AROD will have when we start throwing him in every vote...

 

[calsnowskier]

You don't think Pedro's best seasons were better than Felix, Johan or Lincecum? His 1999 and 2000 seasons beat those guys easily IMO.

Not what I MEANT to say. Just saying that he had much better longevity than those guys.