Top 10 Coaches Most Likely to Win Their First Title

[Thiefery]

1. Ryan Day- It's Ohio State, you have to royally fuck up to not be a title contender year in, year out.
2. Lincoln Riley- I don't think Oklahoma currently poses any real threat to the true top dogs, but Oklahoma is basically in the same spot as Clemson, guaranteed conference title, and great odds to make the final 4 every year.

Those are the two most likely.

Kirby and Mullen are gonna have to beat Saban before I can believe it can happen and James Franklin is arguably more overrated than Harbaugh.

I think Ryan/tosu is in the same boat.. in fact I think Day pretty much mirrored what Lincoln did year one at ou. Only difference was that tosu went undefeated through season play and Baker won the heisman. But both teams lost in heartbreakers in the semi playoffs.. one in OT and the other at the end. Granted, tosu defense was much better than the 2016 ou defense.

But who really should push tosu in the B16? The talent gap is something else between them.. and pedo

 

[Across The Field]

Yeah we haven't but we've been close. And our defense has been much improved with the hires of Elko and then Lea. We are more balanced as a program, which is a good thing. We've been running the same offense since 2015, so it's not about adjusting, it's about getting a guy like a Fuller to commit, who's a 1st round talent at WR. We've had good WR's, just not elite like that. That's what stalls us in the bigger games.

And we'll just disagree about Arkansas then. They were definitely an elite offensive team despite you picking out there 2 worst performances.

I feel like ND is in the same boat as michigan. Pretty good team, going to win some nice games, but they're just spinning their tires in regards to becoming an elite team. The gap between teams like Bama, Clemson, OSU and teams like michigan, ND, Texas, etc. is getting wider it seems, and I think a good amount of it has to do with coaching.

Those were their two worst performances, but they were also against two teams that any elite offense would have 0 problem scoring on. I mean, TT wasn't even top 100 in defensive efficiency that year. You can't just use efficiency as the end all be all; Arkansas was outside of the top 25 both in YPG and PPG. The only way you can win a title with an offense like that is to have an ultra-elite defense. 2015 Bama, for example, didn't have a great offense either, but they were head and shoulders above everyone in the nation on the defensive side of the ball. ND hasn't come close to having that type of defense under BK.

 

[Across The Field]

I think Ryan/tosu is in the same boat.. in fact I think Day pretty much mirrored what Lincoln did year one at ou. Only difference was that tosu went undefeated through season play and Baker won the heisman. But both teams lost in heartbreakers in the semi playoffs.. one in OT and the other at the end. Granted, tosu defense was much better than the 2016 ou defense.

But who really should push tosu in the B16? The talent gap is something else between them.. and pedo

The B1G has been the 2nd best overall conference in the nation for several years now, so Day isn't close to being in the same boat. In any given year, Riley might face 1 other top 10 team, and maybe 2-3 ranked teams overall, as has been the case in the Big 12 for the last 5 years. Meanwhile, the B1G sports no less than 5-6 ranked teams overall every year, and has had 2-3 top 10 teams other than OSU multiple times over the last 5 years. Riley and Dabo are much closer to being in the same boat.

 

[RubinRock]

No Luke Fickell at Cincinnati?!

 

[osubuckeye89]

Where's Harbaugh?

Wasnt he supposed to be hand picking any top recruits he wanted and winning a couple of titles by now?

 

[Wamu]

Where's Harbaugh?

Wasnt he supposed to be hand picking any top recruits he wanted and winning a couple of titles by now?

He's busy trying to figure out how to have a social distancing recruiting sleepover? And let me remind you that Coach Harbaugh's the only coach in the country that's gone undefeated in his spring game the last 5 years.

 

[ericd7633]

I feel like ND is in the same boat as michigan. Pretty good team, going to win some nice games, but they're just spinning their tires in regards to becoming an elite team. The gap between teams like Bama, Clemson, OSU and teams like michigan, ND, Texas, etc. is getting wider it seems, and I think a good amount of it has to do with coaching.

Those were their two worst performances, but they were also against two teams that any elite offense would have 0 problem scoring on. I mean, TT wasn't even top 100 in defensive efficiency that year. You can't just use efficiency as the end all be all; Arkansas was outside of the top 25 both in YPG and PPG. The only way you can win a title with an offense like that is to have an ultra-elite defense. 2015 Bama, for example, didn't have a great offense either, but they were head and shoulders above everyone in the nation on the defensive side of the ball. ND hasn't come close to having that type of defense under BK.

Yeah, we pretty much are Michigan. Two tiers below Bama, OSU, Clemson. A tier below UGA, LSU. I don't think it has to do with coaching more so recruiting. We'll recruit somewhere between 8-15ish and that's generally where we've finished the last 5 years outside 2016. We're a top 10 program the last 5 years, which is a hell of alot better where we were the previous 15 years at the tail end of Holtz, and with Davie, Willingham and fatass. We've gotta have everything come together to actually WIN a title. An offense like 2015, coupled with the defense from 2012 or last year, and we are right there.

The reason using efficiency is better than PPG or YPG is because it takes pace into account. Those Arkansas teams simply didn't play at the pace you need to to finish that high up in either of those categories. But like I said they did have the #1 offensive efficiency, were top 5 in passing efficiency, and top 10 in yards per play. They had an offense good enough to win a title but their defense was simply atrocious.

And yeah we haven't had a defense like Bama 2015, but like 2 have? Bama later on and two Clemson teams. And we aren't that.

 

[Across The Field]

Yeah, we pretty much are Michigan. Two tiers below Bama, OSU, Clemson. A tier below UGA, LSU. I don't think it has to do with coaching more so recruiting. We'll recruit somewhere between 8-15ish and that's generally where we've finished the last 5 years outside 2016. We're a top 10 program the last 5 years, which is a hell of alot better where we were the previous 15 years at the tail end of Holtz, and with Davie, Willingham and fatass. We've gotta have everything come together to actually WIN a title. An offense like 2015, coupled with the defense from 2012 or last year, and we are right there.

The reason using efficiency is better than PPG or YPG is because it takes pace into account. Those Arkansas teams simply didn't play at the pace you need to to finish that high up in either of those categories. But like I said they did have the #1 offensive efficiency, were top 5 in passing efficiency, and top 10 in yards per play. They had an offense good enough to win a title but their defense was simply atrocious.

And yeah we haven't had a defense like Bama 2015, but like 2 have? Bama later on and two Clemson teams. And we aren't that.

Don't take this the wrong way, but it just sounds like you're making excuses for BK at this point. He's been at ND for a decade now. If he was going to win a title, I feel like he would have by now. The closest he's come is the one year he made the CFP and got absolutely murdered. If you're happy being a ~top 10 program, then stick with him. But I think that's all you're going to be with him. Not being able to develop a legit championship-level offense/defense is on him. He's had some years where he's had a pretty good offense or pretty good defense, but they have never been championship-caliber, and it's been 10 years.

Using efficiency doesn't mean anything when it comes to on-the-field play though, and that's the problem. Pace is important when it comes to actually winning games. It's the reason they lost to a Texas Tech team that had a dramatically worse defense than even Arkansas did that year. It's the reason they could only score 21 on an Aggie team even though they had 7 other opponents score more on them that year. It's the reason they lost to a mediocre defense like Toledo despite Toledo only scoring 16 points. Arkansas couldn't even crack the top 25 in PPG despite playing 6 OT periods that year as well. That's 6 additional periods of getting the ball at the opponents' 25 yard line. That is not an offense that is going to win a NC unless you also have an extremely good, if not elite, defense.

 

[Deep Creek]

Also, 2015 Arkansas was not even close to being championship caliber.

You just don't get it. If a team is in the SEC, they ARE championship caliber. End of discussion.

 

[gobigred]

How did they leave off the "Red Missah" Scott Frost?

List is invalid.

 

[ericd7633]

Don't take this the wrong way, but it just sounds like you're making excuses for BK at this point. He's been at ND for a decade now. If he was going to win a title, I feel like he would have by now. The closest he's come is the one year he made the CFP and got absolutely murdered. If you're happy being a ~top 10 program, then stick with him. But I think that's all you're going to be with him. Not being able to develop a legit championship-level offense/defense is on him. He's had some years where he's had a pretty good offense or pretty good defense, but they have never been championship-caliber, and it's been 10 years.

Using efficiency doesn't mean anything when it comes to on-the-field play though, and that's the problem. Pace is important when it comes to actually winning games. It's the reason they lost to a Texas Tech team that had a dramatically worse defense than even Arkansas did that year. It's the reason they could only score 21 on an Aggie team even though they had 7 other opponents score more on them that year. It's the reason they lost to a mediocre defense like Toledo despite Toledo only scoring 16 points. Arkansas couldn't even crack the top 25 in PPG despite playing 6 OT periods that year as well. That's 6 additional periods of getting the ball at the opponents' 25 yard line. That is not an offense that is going to win a NC unless you also have an extremely good, if not elite, defense.

I'm not making excuses. It's inherently more difficult for a program like ND to win at an elite level than it is at a place like OSU or pick a school down south. He's developed a championship caliber defense and offense just not in the same year, which is the problem, and is tough to do given where we stand in recruiting. Like I said if you pair our 2015 offense with the 2012 or 2019 defense, that's a complete team.

And we'll just have to disagree on Arkansas. Their offense was good enough to win a championship in that season.

 

[Rolltide94]

A lot of what you said doesn't even make sense. First off, 5 seasons? Smart has been there for 4. I realize Alabama fan's really don't know football outside of Alabama, but many teams don't keep coaches for 4+ seasons.

Smart is at 3-1 vs the Gators over the last 4 seasons. I believe he is the only one. Ed Orgeron is at 2-2.


But perhaps I am wrong. Please name the other coaches.

Well, if we are only talking coaches, I know one that is 6-1 that hasn't lost to Florida in more than a decade, something I don't see changing anytime soon.


There is a reason that coaches don't last 4+ seasons in the SEC, his name is Nick Saban.

 

[Thiefery]

The B1G has been the 2nd best overall conference in the nation for several years now, so Day isn't close to being in the same boat. In any given year, Riley might face 1 other top 10 team, and maybe 2-3 ranked teams overall, as has been the case in the Big 12 for the last 5 years. Meanwhile, the B1G sports no less than 5-6 ranked teams overall every year, and has had 2-3 top 10 teams other than OSU multiple times over the last 5 years. Riley and Dabo are much closer to being in the same boat.

I think the Big 12 is better just because of the QB play that has existed in the conference over the past decade. It's easier to gameplan week after week for schools who tend to run the ball more or pass without great QB play. Would love to see how those other Rust belt teams would do week after week vs the QBs that typically are in the Big 12.

 

[Rolltide94]

But it'll probably be somebody nobody expects. I doubt Coach O made anyone's list before last season.

You can 100% put me in that camp. I thought they had promoted a good D-line coach two positions above his ability.

Happy to admit I was wrong.

 

[Rolltide94]

I think the Big 12 is better just because of the QB play that has existed in the conference over the past decade. It's easier to gameplan week after week for schools who tend to run the ball more or pass without great QB play. Would love to see how those other Rust belt teams would do week after week vs the QBs that typically are in the Big 12.

Wouldn't the reverse argument also be true. Since these "elite" QB's are so much harder to gameplan against shouldn't the B12 be dominating games against other conference? The numbers don't seem to bear that out...You are 81-75 against other P5's in the last decade and 10-13, and it isn't getting better, in the last five you are 39-39 and 4-7 vs the B1G. If you look at ranked vs ranked it's even worse.

 

[Thiefery]

Wouldn't the reverse argument also be true. Since these "elite" QB's are so much harder to gameplan against shouldn't the B12 be dominating games against other conference? The numbers don't seem to bear that out...You are 81-75 against other P5's in the last decade and 10-13, and it isn't getting better, in the last five you are 39-39 and 4-7 vs the B1G. If you look at ranked vs ranked it's even worse.

you talking about bowl games where there is 4 weeks of game planning? Or early games in the season? Even Saban realized he had to change once Big 12 roster aggy rolled him at home

 

[Thiefery]

Wouldn't the reverse argument also be true. Since these "elite" QB's are so much harder to gameplan against shouldn't the B12 be dominating games against other conference? The numbers don't seem to bear that out...You are 81-75 against other P5's in the last decade and 10-13, and it isn't getting better, in the last five you are 39-39 and 4-7 vs the B1G. If you look at ranked vs ranked it's even worse.

Also with the new coaching adds in the SEC West, I'm ready to see how tough it's gonna be once Leach, Kiffin and baby Briles have their QBs locked

 

[Rolltide94]

you talking about bowl games where there is 4 weeks of game planning? Or early games in the season? Even Saban realized he had to change once Big 12 roster aggy rolled him at home

It's all games, but obviously ranked on ranked trend toward bowl games. Again though, isn't the reverse also true, these elite qb's and there high powered offenses also have 4 weeks to prepare?

LOL, I'm pretty sure the Aggies had very little to do with Saban adapting. The heisman trophy winner scored 29 in a win and 42 in a loss, A&M has only scored more than 23 once since, last year when they lost 47-28. Manziel also hung 59 on their fellow B12 refugee Missouri that year and beat B12 Co-Champ 41-13 in the Cotton Bowl.

 

[Gatorchip]

Well, if we are only talking coaches, I know one that is 6-1 that hasn't lost to Florida in more than a decade, something I don't see changing anytime soon.

6-1 in 4 seasons? 4 seasons lasting a decade?

Thank you for the display of Alabama intellect. Gumps never let me down.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Wouldn't the reverse argument also be true. Since these "elite" QB's are so much harder to gameplan against shouldn't the B12 be dominating games against other conference? The numbers don't seem to bear that out...You are 81-75 against other P5's in the last decade and 10-13, and it isn't getting better, in the last five you are 39-39 and 4-7 vs the B1G. If you look at ranked vs ranked it's even worse.

Please don’t feed the retarded B12 homers.

Thank you