Top 10 Coaches Most Likely to Win Their First Title

[Gatorchip]

That's not a real exclusive list, you've played 10 P5 teams more than once in the last 5 years and you have a winning record against 5 of them, and those 5 are Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, South Carolina and Missouri...not exactly exclusive company.

A lot of what you said doesn't even make sense. First off, 5 seasons? Smart has been there for 4. I realize Alabama fan's really don't know football outside of Alabama, but many teams don't keep coaches for 4+ seasons.

Smart is at 3-1 vs the Gators over the last 4 seasons. I believe he is the only one. Ed Orgeron is at 2-2.


But perhaps I am wrong. Please name the other coaches.

 

[ericd7633]

Take a look at the average recruit ranking over that 4 year period. OSU's is 93.14 while UGA's is 93.01. It's not only about recruiting stars though. It's the ability to develop them. In the last 2 years, OSU has put almost as many players in the NFL as UGA has in the last 4.

Yeah OSU does a great job at that. I wasn't questioning that aspect of it. No better example than Fields. UGA had no clue how to utilize him. I was just strictly looking at what was being recruited.

 

[Across The Field]

We were 3rd in offensive efficiency that season. Had future 1st rounders with Fuller(WR), Stanley(OT), Nelson(OG), McGlinchey(OT) starting. Kizer was a 2nd rounder. Martin(C) a 2nd rounder. Prosise was a 3rd rounder. Durham Smythe a 4th rounder. The only starters not drafted were our two other senior WR and our other OG because he retired to start his career in another field.

And you weren't even top 25 in YPG or PPG. You had a decent offense but it was far from being "championship caliber". Also, I very much question those numbers if you're also going to say Arkansas was a "championship caiber" offense that year since they were #1 in efficiency.

 

[Across The Field]

Yeah OSU does a great job at that. I wasn't questioning that aspect of it. No better example than Fields. UGA had no clue how to utilize him. I was just strictly looking at what was being recruited.

Sure, they are very close in talent. I think it's just foolish to say one is clearly ahead of the other.

 

[ericd7633]

I was wondering if you by chance meant 2016 (Kizer's second season), but the same thing is true then.

No, 2015. 2016 we sucked at everything.

 

[Thiefery]

Take a look at the average recruit ranking over that 4 year period. OSU's is 93.14 while UGA's is 93.01. It's not only about recruiting stars though. It's the ability to develop them. In the last 2 years, OSU has put almost as many players in the NFL as UGA has in the last 4.

and yet over the past 5 seasons GA just made the CFP once, but made it to the championship game. And tosu has been in it twice and lost to Clemson in the semifinals. Crazy how loaded those teams were and it wasn't enough.

 

[Across The Field]

No, 2015. 2016 we sucked at everything.

Ah yes, you were better in 2015.

 

[Across The Field]

and yet over the past 5 seasons GA just made the CFP once, but made it to the championship game. And tosu has been in it twice and lost to Clemson in the semifinals. Crazy how loaded those teams were and it wasn't enough.

Ok?

 

[Chewbaccer]

1. Ryan Day- It's Ohio State, you have to royally fuck up to not be a title contender year in, year out.
2. Lincoln Riley- I don't think Oklahoma currently poses any real threat to the true top dogs, but Oklahoma is basically in the same spot as Clemson, guaranteed conference title, and great odds to make the final 4 every year.

Those are the two most likely.

Kirby and Mullen are gonna have to beat Saban before I can believe it can happen and James Franklin is arguably more overrated than Harbaugh.

 

[Gatorchip]

Ok?

He wants you to ask him about Texas.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

Day is pretty easily #1 on this list.

The SEC coaches have more competition which hurts their ability to win a NC.

Riley seems like a good pick at #2

 

[Gatorchip]

1. Ryan Day- It's Ohio State, you have to royally fuck up to not be a title contender year in, year out.
2. Lincoln Riley- I don't think Oklahoma currently poses any real threat to the true top dogs, but Oklahoma is basically in the same spot as Clemson, guaranteed conference title, and great odds to make the final 4 every year.

Those are the two most likely.

Kirby and Mullen are gonna have to beat Saban before I can believe it can happen and James Franklin is arguably more overrated than Harbaugh.

I tend to agree with you here.

And both Kirby and Mullen get their chance this coming season vs Saban.

 

[ericd7633]

And you weren't even top 25 in YPG or PPG. You had a decent offense but it was far from being "championship caliber". Also, I very much question those numbers if you're also going to say Arkansas was a "championship caiber" offense that year since they were #1 in efficiency.

I don't know what else to tell you then. We had great talent, and we're good from an efficiency standpoint. And yes, I'll tell you Arkansas has a championship caliber offense for that year. My guess is they go better than 8-5 if they don't have the 81st ranked defense. Plus, you have to take into account the year as well. Even though it was just 5 years ago. Offenses have gotten much better/efficient the last 3 years with all these offenses going to more spread. Programs like OU, Bama and even a program like LSU have completely changed who they are. That efficiency ranking wouldn't have even cracked the top 5 last year for Arkansas.

 

[ericd7633]

Sure, they are very close in talent. I think it's just foolish to say one is clearly ahead of the other.

I'd agree with that.

 

[Chewbaccer]

But it'll probably be somebody nobody expects. I doubt Coach O made anyone's list before last season.

 

[Hitman Hart]

i just can't imagine #2, #6-#9 ever winning nattys

 

[Hitman Hart]

But it'll probably be somebody nobody expects. I doubt Coach O made anyone's list before last season.

lol, i just posted that i can't imagine #2, #6-#9 ever winning nattys

but i damn sure never thought in a million years that Coach O would ever be a natty-winning HC

good point, chewy

 

[Across The Field]

I don't know what else to tell you then. We had great talent, and we're good from an efficiency standpoint. And yes, I'll tell you Arkansas has a championship caliber offense for that year. My guess is they go better than 8-5 if they don't have the 81st ranked defense. Plus, you have to take into account the year as well. Even though it was just 5 years ago. Offenses have gotten much better/efficient the last 3 years with all these offenses going to more spread. Programs like OU, Bama and even a program like LSU have completely changed who they are. That efficiency ranking wouldn't have even cracked the top 5 last year for Arkansas.

Well if you're going this route, then Kelly belongs even lower on this list, as you guys haven't even cracked the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency since then. That tells me that Kelly isn't adjusting like other coaches are.

Also, 2015 Arkansas was not even close to being championship caliber. Any offense that scores a combined 36 points against Toledo and Texas Tech is not winning you a title.

 

[Thiefery]

SO looking back at the rosters, the talent is pretty even with tosu and jawja, so I have been corrected. I wasn't taking a shot at either (i'm a Texas fan afterall) with my comment about how loaded they were without a title. If I had more time I would like to see how often the highest 4 year cycles produce championships in CFP.

 

[ericd7633]

Well if you're going this route, then Kelly belongs even lower on this list, as you guys haven't even cracked the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency since then. That tells me that Kelly isn't adjusting like other coaches are.

Also, 2015 Arkansas was not even close to being championship caliber. Any offense that scores a combined 36 points against Toledo and Texas Tech is not winning you a title.

Yeah we haven't but we've been close. And our defense has been much improved with the hires of Elko and then Lea. We are more balanced as a program, which is a good thing. We've been running the same offense since 2015, so it's not about adjusting, it's about getting a guy like a Fuller to commit, who's a 1st round talent at WR. We've had good WR's, just not elite like that. That's what stalls us in the bigger games.

And we'll just disagree about Arkansas then. They were definitely an elite offensive team despite you picking out there 2 worst performances.