The Seahawks want to short Wilson on a new contract

[night]

The key issues in Wilson's contract negotiation with the Seahawks - Seattle Seahawks | 710 ESPN Seattle

Russell Wilson's contract extension was supposed to be a paint-by-numbers deal.

After all, Seattle has made a habit of extending the contracts of its best young players before they become free agents. From Max Unger in 2012 to Kam Chancellor in 2013 to Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Doug Baldwin, (pause for a breath), K.J. Wright and Cliff Avril last year.

Now, it's Wilson's turn. The quarterback who has won more games than anyone at his position in his first three years is eligible to negotiate a new contract. Some speculated a $120 million total was possible, with Wilson guaranteed to receive half that total. Others wondered if the Seahawks would fully guarantee the sum of a contract, an idea as unprecedented as it was unrealistic.

Over the past few weeks, it has become possible to sketch the general shape of some of the negotiations, not to provide hard-and-fast negotiating points but to show some of the issues the two sides will need to work out in order to bridge a gap that right now can be counted in the millions. Actually, it's closer to 10s of millions.

What follows is an attempt to answer some very basic questions based on discussions and information from various league sources familiar with the negotiations. The numbers mentioned here should be thought of as rough estimates more than exact negotiating points. The goal is not to define to the cent the monetary demands from Wilson or the offer from Seattle, but to show the bigger issues that are being discussed.

Q: Is Wilson going to be the NFL's highest-paid quarterback?

A: Not based on the Seahawks' opening offer. They're willing to pay him more per year than contemporaries like Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick, but they have not taken the dramatic step of vaulting him into the top tier of veteran quarterbacks in overall compensation.

Q: So what about this $120 million deal with half of that guaranteed that some were discussing?

A: Yeah, that's not happening judging by the opening tenor of negotiations. In fact, the Seahawks haven't put $100 million on the table right now. The offer of a four-year extension is believed to be worth closer to $80 million.

Q: That sounds like a $20-million-a-year raise.

A: Depends on how you count it. It would be $20 million a year in the four years being added to the deal. But what about the final year of Wilson's rookie deal, in which he's scheduled to make $1.5 million? If that's still there, you're talking about a five-year deal that will pay just over $80 million.

Q: Well, where would Wilson's deal rank against those of other quarterbacks?

A: Right now, the gold standard for contracts at the position is Aaron Rodgers' five-year, $110 million deal, which was signed in 2013. Ben Roethlisberger's five-year, $99 million contract from earlier this year is also instructive. What complicates things is that neither guy is coming off a rookie contract.

Q: Why in the world would that matter?

A: Because Wilson is scheduled to make $1.5 million next season. NFL teams aren't in the habit of giving raises out of the goodness of their hearts. In exchange for providing a significant raise down the road – and more importantly providing a huge signing bonus at the time of the extension – the team can leave that salary from the final year of the rookie deal in place. Sherman is a good example. He signed an extension last year and received a signing bonus of $11 million. His salary for last season – which would have been the final year of his rookie deal – was $1.4 million. He'll make $10 million in salary this year as the extension kicks in.

Q: Is that the way it worked for other quarterbacks coming off rookie contracts?

A: Well, there's not many quarterbacks with Wilson's pedigree. Not any, in fact, when you consider he has two Super Bowl appearances in three seasons as a starter and has won more games than any other quarterback to start a career.

The two biggest extensions for quarterbacks under the new collective-bargaining agreement have been Dalton's and Kaepernick's. Both signed six-year extensions that were glued on to the final year of their respective rookie deals.

In Dalton's case, it was a six-year, $96 million extension that he signed last year. For an apples-to-apples comparison to what is being discussed with Wilson, Dalton's deal is scheduled to pay about $52 million from the time he signed it through the first four years of the extension.

Kaepernick's is bigger, a six-year, $114 million deal that was signed last year. It will pay $72.8 million through those first four years of the extension, though more of that is tied to roster bonuses that won't be paid if he's not on the team.

It's worth noting that a shorter-term extension – such as the four-year arrangements Seattle has used – gives the player more earning opportunity (i.e. Wilson would get back to the bargaining table two years before Kaepernick if he were to receive a four-year extension).

Q: So who's right in this case?

A: Well, both sides have a point, which is why this negotiation isn't as straightforward as most people expected it to be. On the one hand, Wilson can argue that he deserves to be paid a total over the next five years that puts him alongside top veteran quarterbacks. On the other, the Seahawks have a point that they're using the same formula they've used with other elite players at their positions.

Q: What's the worst-case scenario?

A: There's no new deal, Wilson plays out the final year of his rookie contract with the expectation that he will be designated as Seattle's franchise player next offseason. Seattle can keep him by using that tag each year through the 2018 season, at which point Wilson could become a free agent as he's turning 30. No one wants that on either side, but you asked for worst-case.

Q: Does a deal get done?

A: I think so. There's still plenty of time, and the most common window for extensions across the league is in July before training camp starts. But there's no certainty.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Smart IMO. Start low.

 

[HammerDown]

Oh this shouldn't get much attention from "the 12th man" on SportsHoopla.

 

[HammerDown]

I'd have to say that Wilson deserves Dalton money but not Kaepernick money.

(Don't tell @Doublejive where I live please!)

 

[SonnyCID]

What were they supposed to do? Come out the gate in April with a realistic offer? Not the way it works... Especially when the player is still under contract.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Pun intended?

 

[night]

What were they supposed to do? Come out the gate in April with a realistic offer? Not the way it works... Especially when the player is still under contract.

I'd consider it slightly insulting if I were in Russ' shoes. Both Wilson and the Seahawks should have a good idea of what his market value is and this isn't it.

 

[HammerDown]

Pun intended?

Would you say he deserves Bob Saget money?

 

[SonnyCID]

I'd consider it slightly insulting if I were in Russ' shoes. Both Wilson and the Seahawks should have a good idea of what his market value is and this isn't it.

That true value is found through negotiations. And both sides have leverage. This isn't a Joe Flacco-UFA-holy shit better get it done in the spring kind of deal.

If they hardline this offer, yeah that's insulting. But that won't happen.

 

[tducey]

Yes he does.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Would you say he deserves Bob Saget money?

Depends on what you mean by Bob Saget money. Saget has a net worth of $100 million but he's also been known to perform oral sex on strangers for next to nothing. My friend's cousin did a show with him once and Saget showed up bragging about how he had made $50.05 sucking off homeless men the night before. When someone asked him "Who paid you 5 cents?" he responded "They all did".

 

[Uhsplit]

Russell's agent needs to listen to more of you Hooplans that feel that Seattle could win a SB with half of the QB's in the NFL.
With that in mind, pay him between what #16 and #17 highest paid QB's receive.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I'd consider it slightly insulting if I were in Russ' shoes. Both Wilson and the Seahawks should have a good idea of what his market value is and this isn't it.

They should have a ballpark idea because he is somewhat of unique animal in this regard...he's been successful, but he hasn't been a dominant reason as to why SEA has gone to b-t-b SBs...he's been a big part and should be paid as such...again the key will be G$...if they can work that part out and keep some cap flexibility this will get done soon.

RW would be smart to take a little less than market value, $65 mil over 6 yrs...all guaranteed...sounds like good middle ground.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

IMO paying Wilson top 5 or even top 10 money is insane. He isn't asked to do as much with that offense. It's not that he can't go somewhere else and maybe carry a team, it's just that Seattle's system is built to accommodate QBs, not build around one. That team is built around stout defense and ground pound. In addition, the pressure is taken off the QB because Pete's philosophy is don't force passes, just throw it away. Don't turn it over.

Wilson does bring one thing and that's his legs, but more and more QBs coming out of college these days have the ability to run/scramble. That even concerns me more with Wilson because injuries can sometimes happen to those QBs (although Wilson is smart while he runs and the guy is built for his height).

I like Wilson and would love for Seattle to retain him, but I'd like to keep it around $16M a year. 5 years $80M would be perfect.

 

[night]

They should have a ballpark idea because he is somewhat of unique animal in this regard...he's been successful, but he hasn't been a dominant reason as to why SEA has gone to b-t-b SBs...he's been a big part and should be paid as such...again the key will be G$...if they can work that part out and keep some cap flexibility this will get done soon.

RW would be smart to take a little less than market value, $65 mil over 6 yrs...all guaranteed...sounds like good middle ground.

The league trend seems to be if you find your franchise QB you have to pony up. More often than not even non-elite QBs are getting the highest paid contract ever. I could be wrong but I think even Flacco's contract was the highest ever at one point. As the cap keeps expanding I doubt that trend will go away.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

IMO paying Wilson top 5 or even top 10 money is insane. He isn't asked to do as much with that offense. It's not that he can't go somewhere else and maybe carry a team, it's just that erSeattle's system is built to accommodate QBs, not build around one. That team is built around stout defense and ground pound. In addition, the pressure is taken off the QB because Pete's philosophy is don't force passes, just throw it away. Don't turn it over.

Wilson does bring one thing and that's his legs, but more and more QBs coming out of college these days have the ability to run/scramble. That even concerns me more with Wilson because injuries can sometimes happen to those QBs (although Wilson is smart while he runs and the guy is built for his height).

I like Wilson and would love for Seattle to retain him, but I'd like to keep it around $16M a year. 5 years $80M would be perfect.

Agree with almost everything you're saying. Except how much he'll likely get. One thing to keep in mind is what have you done for me lately? Back 2 back SBs I think his agent sells more than stats. If you look at going into next year under the current contract you take the chance of pissing Wilson off. So then people talk about franchise tagging him. Well that will cost between 20-22 million best guesses now. Try franchising him again 25 million plus. So why would his agent settle for 16? Beside Luck, Flacco are coming up on contracts which are going to adjust that market higher. To stay in the range of 16 I think you would need more years and a lot of guarenteed.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Agree with almost everything you're saying. Except how much he'll likely get. One thing to keep in mind is what have you done for me lately? Back 2 back SBs I think his agent sells more than stats. If you look at going into next year under the current contract you take the chance of pissing Wilson off. So then people talk about franchise tagging him. Well that will cost between 20-22 million best guesses now. Try franchising him again 25 million plus. So why would his agent settle for 16? Beside Luck, Flacco are coming up on contracts which are going to adjust that market higher. To stay in the range of 16 I think you would need more years and a lot of guarenteed.

Oh I agree completely, just saying what I would be really happy with. I think he gets 5 years $100M honestly.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Oh I agree completely, just saying what I would be really happy with. I think he gets 5 years $100M honestly.

Can't blame you. That would be getting your cake with extra frosting then eating it to.

 

[Wolverine830872]

I was under the impression that the opening offer was somewhere in the range of 4 year, 80mil. That sounds like a very reasonable deal.

 

[SonnyCID]

They should have a ballpark idea because he is somewhat of unique animal in this regard...he's been successful, but he hasn't been a dominant reason as to why SEA has gone to b-t-b SBs...he's been a big part and should be paid as such...again the key will be G$...if they can work that part out and keep some cap flexibility this will get done soon.

RW would be smart to take a little less than market value, $65 mil over 6 yrs...all guaranteed...sounds like good middle ground.

I totally disagree with the bolded. Everyone wants to talk about the other components effect on Wilson, but not the other way around. He greatly helps take pressure off Lynch, especially with all the ZR they run. And he helps the defense by sustaining drives and keeping them off the field. And that's aside from how he compensates for a bad oline and receiving corps. If they didn't have Wilson they would still probably have a top 10 running game and defense, but they wouldn't be at the top like they are now, and they would likely miss the playoffs. He makes everyone better.