Our Texas Rangers vs the dreaded Seattle Mariners 8/26 - 8/28

[Windingmywatch]

Comment above about TEX history of tough games at Safeco caused me to pull up some quick resources to compare it to RBIA.

Park factors:
RBIA -- 2011 (#1 w/1.409 factor); 2012 (#4, 1.183); 2013 (#16, 0.995)
Safeco -- 2011 (#26 w/0.885 factor); 2012 (#30, 0.687); 2013 (#22, 0.925)

Not sure how much I buy into the accuracy of park factors... especially RBIA. Seems kinda coincidental that TEX high park factor in 2011 and to an extent 2012 just happens to be when TEX had huge HR hitters in the lineup compared to 2013 and its below 1.0 factor this year. Although I do wonder in the case of RBIA just how much the new jumbotron and effect of global warming might play in the numbers.



2013 MLB Park Factors - Runs - Major League Baseball - ESPN

Additionally prior to this season SEA moved the wall in from straightaway LF through RCF. Not relevant though are that none of the three HRs hit last night (Seager, AJ) to RF or Mitch's to CF were affected by the shorter distance.

Changes to Safeco Field, Petco Park could affect prospects for Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres players - Fantasy Baseball - ESPN

 

[scotsman1948]

I'd be willing to bet Adrian isn't going to get pitched to very often down the stretch. Hopefully AJ does a good job of making guys pay for it, but he's going to have quit swinging at so much junk.

Probably true as there isn't really anyone behind him that scares pitchers

 

[Windingmywatch]

I'd be willing to bet Adrian isn't going to get pitched to very often down the stretch. Hopefully AJ does a good job of making guys pay for it, but he's going to have quit swinging at so much junk.

We commonly grouse about AJ's quality ABs. We grumble when he doesn't come through and then like last night after the IBB to Beltre he nails a hanging slider one of Saunders only mistakes ... and all is forgiven for the moment. (Murphy has these moments about every other week too).

Then I go and look at his splits ... which are nearly identical against LH starters and RH starters. So rather than hunting for a RH #5 to bat behind Beltre against LH starters ... it appears that AJ ought to be the 'ambidextrous' #5 ... if he were to just "quit swinging at so much junk".

AJ vs LH starters (132AB): .280 .314 .417 .731 3HR
AJ vs RH starters (257AB): .280 .304 .463 .767 12HR

It's perhaps too late in the season to tinker with this ... but I just wonder why TEX doesn't just settle for batting Baker #5 against LH starters (playing 1b) and drop AJ to #7 behind Rios?

Baker vs LH starters (84AB): .321 .408 .750 1.158
Baker vs RH starters -- not applicable because Moreland will be in the lineup

While dropping AJ to #7 against LHP might benefit Beltre ... it does create a jumble at the bottom of the batting order.

All of this may be just academic from Sunday on. Martin ought to be back tonight. On Sunday Berkman might be activated along with Joey Butler which relieves Profar of DH duties (hopefully batting no higher than 6th or 7th) and Murphy being the only OF left to fill a LF starter spot.

It does seem imperative for the next month to protect Beltre to the max extent. That will probably be primarily AJ's job. I don't see Berkman or Butler doing it.

Maybe Baker is the better #5 alternative still. It isn't Rios, it isn't Berkman and it isn't Butler or Geo.

Edit: Scotty I agree with your point. "there isn't really anyone behind him that scares pitchers." Against LHP that might be Baker.

 

[RevSader]

We commonly grouse about AJ's quality ABs. We grumble when he doesn't come through and then like last night after the IBB to Beltre he nails a hanging slider one of Saunders only mistakes ... and all is forgiven for the moment. (Murphy has these moments about every other week too).

Then I go and look at his splits ... which are nearly identical against LH starters and RH starters. So rather than hunting for a RH #5 to bat behind Beltre against LH starters ... it appears that AJ ought to be the 'ambidextrous' #5 ... if he were to just "quit swinging at so much junk".

AJ vs LH starters (132AB): .280 .314 .417 .731 3HR
AJ vs RH starters (257AB): .280 .304 .463 .767 12HR

It's perhaps too late in the season to tinker with this ... but I just wonder why TEX doesn't just settle for batting Baker #5 against LH starters (playing 1b) and drop AJ to #7 behind Rios?

Baker vs LH starters (84AB): .321 .408 .750 1.158
Baker vs RH starters -- not applicable because Moreland will be in the lineup

While dropping AJ to #7 against LHP might benefit Beltre ... it does create a jumble at the bottom of the batting order.

All of this may be just academic from Sunday on. Martin ought to be back tonight. On Sunday Berkman might be activated along with Joey Butler which relieves Profar of DH duties (hopefully batting no higher than 6th or 7th) and Murphy being the only OF left to fill a LF starter spot.

It does seem imperative for the next month to protect Beltre to the max extent. That will probably be primarily AJ's job. I don't see Berkman or Butler doing it.

Maybe Baker is the better #5 alternative still. It isn't Rios, it isn't Berkman and it isn't Butler or Geo.

Even if Baker is having a magical run of SSS vs LHP I wouldn't pitch to Beltre. I would make Baker beat me.

 

[romeo212000]

We commonly grouse about AJ's quality ABs. We grumble when he doesn't come through and then like last night after the IBB to Beltre he nails a hanging slider one of Saunders only mistakes ... and all is forgiven for the moment. (Murphy has these moments about every other week too).

Then I go and look at his splits ... which are nearly identical against LH starters and RH starters. So rather than hunting for a RH #5 to bat behind Beltre against LH starters ... it appears that AJ ought to be the 'ambidextrous' #5 ... if he were to just "quit swinging at so much junk".

AJ vs LH starters (132AB): .280 .314 .417 .731 3HR
AJ vs RH starters (257AB): .280 .304 .463 .767 12HR

It's perhaps too late in the season to tinker with this ... but I just wonder why TEX doesn't just settle for batting Baker #5 against LH starters (playing 1b) and drop AJ to #7 behind Rios?

Baker vs LH starters (84AB): .321 .408 .750 1.158
Baker vs RH starters -- not applicable because Moreland will be in the lineup

While dropping AJ to #7 against LHP might benefit Beltre ... it does create a jumble at the bottom of the batting order.

All of this may be just academic from Sunday on. Martin ought to be back tonight. On Sunday Berkman might be activated along with Joey Butler which relieves Profar of DH duties (hopefully batting no higher than 6th or 7th) and Murphy being the only OF left to fill a LF starter spot.

It does seem imperative for the next month to protect Beltre to the max extent. That will probably be primarily AJ's job. I don't see Berkman or Butler doing it.

Maybe Baker is the better #5 alternative still. It isn't Rios, it isn't Berkman and it isn't Butler or Geo.

Edit: Scotty I agree with your point. "there isn't really anyone behind him that scares pitchers." Against LHP that might be Baker.

Good points. Fact of the matter is, he's the best we've got. And while AJ doesn't strike fear into opposing pitchers quite the same way Cruz did he does seem to punish opposing pitchers at big moments. I guess what I'm saying is leave it alone.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Before we began the past stretch against five consecutive LH starters I figured it was a pretty good bet that Gentry and Baker would make significant contributions. With the next six now against RH starters I'm thinking that Moreland continues to heat up. Should also be a good opportunity for Martin to get back on track if he's ready to go. Anyone heard anything?

 

[Windingmywatch]

Even if Baker is having a magical run of SSS vs LHP I wouldn't pitch to Beltre. I would make Baker beat me.

Expect so. Obviously no matter who the #5 is that is the job.

I just think while AJ may be equipped to punish a RHP there is a better alternative against LH starters. Additionally ... if AJ is always #5 the opposition knows where it is going to use its LOOGY in relief. If Baker is #5 ... takes the LOOGY out of the higher leverage spot and the generic RH RP is brought in ... and TEX can then PH's Mitch for Baker if the payoff opportunity is worth it. It's like chess.

But you are right ... the pitcher has to make the #5 beat him.

 

[RevSader]

Expect so. Obviously no matter who the #5 is that is the job.

I just think while AJ may be equipped to punish a RHP there is a better alternative against LH starters. Additionally ... if AJ is always #5 the opposition knows where it is going to use its LOOGY in relief. If Baker is #5 ... takes the LOOGY out of the higher leverage spot and the generic RH RP is brought in ... and TEX can then PH's Mitch for Baker if the payoff opportunity is worth it. It's like chess.

But you are right ... the pitcher has to make the #5 beat him.

Problem with Baker is that he takes ABs away from Moreland and not Murphy. Gentry will be playing in Murphy's spot vs LHP, but whatever at this point. They need all the offense they can get.

 

[Nightcrawler]

Problem with Baker is that he takes ABs away from Moreland and not Murphy. Gentry will be playing in Murphy's spot vs LHP, but whatever at this point. They need all the offense they can get.

Murphy......

 

[WastinSomeTime]

One shaky inning by Blackley can't ask for more. 3ER not bad considering Garza has been giving more.

71 pitches in 6 innings is very efficient. The hit that drove in 2 runs was actually on a decent pitch and was just flailed out to short left. So for now I am not having a problem with Blackley as our #5 starter and keep stocking up the bullpen.

 

[DT LUNA]

71 pitches in 6 innings is very efficient. The hit that drove in 2 runs was actually on a decent pitch and was just flailed out to short left. So for now I am not having a problem with Blackley as our #5 starter and keep stocking up the bullpen.

He should stay at#5 until he shows a reason why he shouldn't be.

 

[pegasusredleg]

Good points. Fact of the matter is, he's the best we've got. And while AJ doesn't strike fear into opposing pitchers quite the same way Cruz did he does seem to punish opposing pitchers at big moments. I guess what I'm saying is leave it alone.

Profar is doing fine and getting ABs. However, I would like to see a game against a LHP with Baker as DH, Moreland in the order at 1B and Gentry in LF. This assuming Martin is back in the order at CF.

 

[Xx srs bsns xX]

Ha... there were people in this thread last night calling for his head.... (blackley)



10 pages later......

 

[pegasusredleg]

Ha... there were people in this thread last night calling for his head.... (blackley)



10 pages later......

Who? Profar? LOL. I am of the opinion that if you are going to expect more out of a young player with talent, you need to give him the opportunity to succeed.

 

[DT LUNA]

Who? Profar? LOL. I am of the opinion that if you are going to expect more out of a young player with talent, you need to give him the opportunity to succeed.

I believe he is referring to Blackiey in his post

 

[RevSader]

Ha... there were people in this thread last night calling for his head.... (blackley)



10 pages later......

I still haven't watched him pitch yet. I like the arm sleeves he has though. He looks like a cool dude.

 

[Xx srs bsns xX]

Who? Profar? LOL. I am of the opinion that if you are going to expect more out of a young player with talent, you need to give him the opportunity to succeed.

(blackley)

 

[pegasusredleg]

(blackley)

LOL yeah there were a few tense moments of posts last night

 

[Windingmywatch]

LOL yeah there were a few tense moments of posts last night

Yea ... its the standard TEX SP 'badge of dishonor' giving up a HR or two early sometimes if not often lately to some guy named Kyle Seager. Yu has done it. Holland has done it. Garza has done it. Perez has done it. And now Blackley had done it. It's the universal trademark of a TEX SP. You throw strikes then you are bound to leave one in a hitable spot.

Think its great TEX gets 6IP out of Blackley. I was impressed with him last year and how he played such a key role in OAK upending TEX for the ALW title. Was really impressed several times during the season watching Blackley pick off base runners. The head fake is devastating.

In my all my years watching baseball ... I don't ever remember any LHP with a more devastating pick off move to 1b. Holland is pretty good. Can't remember Harrison's move. Perez could be better. Wonder what it would be like to have Blackley in camp next spring to teach his teammates (if he is offered a 2014 program) his move.

If he's able to put out the performance for 6IP like he did last night five more times ... that is a very good thing.

 

[Jbear]

Murphy starting tonight and no Gentry. I do not have a warm fuzzy about that. Gentry gets hit by pitch and walks besides being a better hitter than Murphy. He also tears it up running the bases versus the Clydesdale Murphy. The lefty/righty matchup thing and the players coach/unwavering support of Murphy crap that Wash uses to justify this grows more wearisome as the season progresses. The pitcher tonight is flat out tough but does anyone on here really believe that Murphy is a better player to start tonight over Gentry? I do not give a crap if Murphy hits 5 HRs tonight this is just a pigheaded decision by Wash that is a needless waste of 4 to 5 ABs.