calsnowskier
Sarcastic F-wad
I'm down with those percentages. I actually went into 2011 thinking 80% chance. This year it's about 45% Giants, 45% Dbacks, 10% dark horse.
Phils do have Pence, Dom Brown, Victorino etc. Not all old guys.
Who's your pick for 'whoa how'd THEY get in there?' (Dbacks 2011, Reds 2010, etc)
I didn't post it, but I was not shocked by the Snakes. Their HUGE hole in '10 was their pen, and the completely rebuilt that in the 10/11 off season. I never quite understood all the 'hate' for the team going in.
I think the 'prime-est' team for '12 is the Nats, but that is not exactly a risky pick. I think the main thing against them is their division, with the Fish, Bravos and Philth there, they could finish anywhere from 1st to last, though I think the Mutts will probably be in the cellar.
The Doggies have some potential for a bounce-back as well. They have a solid pitching staff and one of the best players in the game. They also have Ethier, who is solid, Uribe, who SHOULD show SOME improvement, and JHJ just joined the team this off season. They, also, are in a tough division, though, so it is a tough road for them. The Pads are a lost cause.
In the Central, the 'Stros will be too distracted to compete, and they suck anyway. The Bucs could surprise some people, but I just don't see it. They do not know HOW to win, even though they may actually have the talent. I think it is the Crew and Legs battling for the top.
In summary, I think the Nats are the top dark horse, followed by the Dogs and Pirates, in that order.