Next year - Offseason Discussion

[filosofy29]

My bad, salo isnt homegrown, but he has been with the nucks for a while (now 6 years). nevertheless edler and bieksa are certainly 2 of their top 3 D and are homegrown.

As for ehrhoff, I still think he is vastly overrated. he still cant hit the net, and you remember all those fanned shots he flubbed earlier in the series? he is a solid #4 dman, but nothing more. The sharks were beat more by bieksa, salo, and hamhuis (and to a lesser extent, edler) than by ehrhoff. I dont think having ehrhoff would have a lick of difference. The only goof there wasnt trading him, but getting nothing in return.

So if we had Ehrhoff and Vancouver didn't it wouldn't have made a lick of difference? Interesting hypothesis.

 

[sjrules99]

Honestly, I dont think it was anywhere near the difference in the series. In fact, the two games ehrhoff was out, the nucks won. Granted, they were close and one could say the sharks outplayed them, but at the end of the day, both games had GWG's by defensemen for vancouver not named ehrhoff.

In fact, ehrhoff has a team worst -6 for vancouver including 8 minor penalties and vs. the sharks, his high sticking 4 mins cost vancouver a goal. he wasnt terrible, but he also was only the nucks 4th or 5th best defenseman. Ehrhoff is still somewhat suspect defensively and radically inconsistent in shooting as well.

Bieksa (and salo in game 4) beat the sharks. Hamhuis was also extremely effective both ways as well which really hurt. The nucks D had 8 goals in the series, zero from ehrhoff.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

OK, what dman is going to sign with us for 4 mill per and be the difference maker we need? Not bashing just wondered what UFA you have in mind.

 

[sjrules99]

OK, what dman is going to sign with us for 4 mill per and be the difference maker we need? Not bashing just wondered what UFA you have in mind.

honestly, I'm not sure yet, which is partly why I dont mind if he waits until midyear to add that one guy. For example, right now there is no way chicago would consider moving seabrook or keith, but say they get off to a terible start next year and find themselves at the bottom of the conference and lacking offense because of a season ending injury to toews. Well, suddenly certain players may become available. Same could be true for several other teams. A terrible start in nashville could release suter or weber. A bad beginning in Washington mike release mike green, or colorado could deal liles if they struggle.

It's hard to say right now and I am not sure there are UFA's available for that price that would do the trick. Greene might be an option. Pitkanen might be under 4 (though strongly doubt that). wisniewski could be a possbility, and a ton of guys might be available through trade. The picture isn't all that clear regarding who is available and for what, which is why I feel dougie really has until late january to shore up the D as long as white comes back.

personally, my preference would be for phaneuf. I know others dont like him and I will get my criticism for it, but I feel like he has never played on a really good, deeper team and would thrive in SJ where he would not be the only good player. CGY has always lacked forward depth and has lacked good coaching too. Toronto is just a joke up front and has serious coaching and other problems as well. In SJ, he would instantly add a threat from the point on the PP and would make the sharks D really scary with Boyle or Phaneuf out there 80% of the time. Tmac's job would be to solidify his defensive play, but he does skate pretty well and is pretty mobile and extremely physical and tough. laslty, the media is a whole lot easier to handle here than in calgary or toronto, so it might help his game. If a trade for him included seto, then the cap situation would work fine and he is at the right age entering his prime.

 

[Cmon_WTF]

Honestly, I dont think it was anywhere near the difference in the series. In fact, the two games ehrhoff was out, the nucks won. Granted, they were close and one could say the sharks outplayed them, but at the end of the day, both games had GWG's by defensemen for vancouver not named ehrhoff.

In fact, ehrhoff has a team worst -6 for vancouver including 8 minor penalties and vs. the sharks, his high sticking 4 mins cost vancouver a goal. he wasnt terrible, but he also was only the nucks 4th or 5th best defenseman. Ehrhoff is still somewhat suspect defensively and radically inconsistent in shooting as well.

Bieksa (and salo in game 4) beat the sharks. Hamhuis was also extremely effective both ways as well which really hurt. The nucks D had 8 goals in the series, zero from ehrhoff.

For whatever reason he still receives a lot of undue grief for his accuracy dispite the fact he was close to top 20 in shooting%. He also has a very good shots attempted to Shots on goal ratio (307 SA / 209 SOG). Ehrhoff is a huge PP producer and while his absince from the Vancouver roster may have had minimal effect his addition to the Sharks would have been tremendous. One extra goal from the PP would have made the difference in many of the games.

 

[sjrules99]

For whatever reason he still receives a lot of undue grief for his accuracy dispite the fact he was close to top 20 in shooting%. He also has a very good shots attempted to Shots on goal ratio (307 SA / 209 SOG). Ehrhoff is a huge PP producer and while his absince from the Vancouver roster may have had minimal effect his addition to the Sharks would have been tremendous. One extra goal from the PP would have made the difference in many of the games.

shooting % is not % of shots that hit the net vs. wide or blocked. it's the % of shots that hit the net that go in. Ehrhoff still does shoot wide alot and while he may have helped, I'm not convinced. it's impossible to know either way of course, but then again, since he left, the sharks have made the WCF twice in a row, when they never did while he was here. Not his fault perhaps, but then again, it is true.

 

[Cbrower91]

68% of his shots are on goal thats pretty good

 

[Cmon_WTF]

shooting % is not % of shots that hit the net vs. wide or blocked. it's the % of shots that hit the net that go in. Ehrhoff still does shoot wide alot and while he may have helped, I'm not convinced. it's impossible to know either way of course, but then again, since he left, the sharks have made the WCF twice in a row, when they never did while he was here. Not his fault perhaps, but then again, it is true.

Hence the 2nd stat I listed. # of shots attempted to # of shots on goal. Ehrhoff's sits at 68.1% (209 of 307) which is very good accruacy. Just as comparisons look at some examples of other dmen around the league: Lidstrom - 66.3% (175 of 264), Weber - 67.9% (254 of 374), Phaneuf - 66.9% (190 of 284), Bieksa - 66.9% (105 of 157), Edler - 63.4% (121 of 191).

 

[caliraftdude]

lol... I think that stat elevated drastically *after* he left the Sharks...

Don't misunderstand me, I don't think Erhoff turns the ice to frozen wine as he skates over it or anything.. he's just incredibly better than watching Wallin blow assignments and spin in circles in the crease... Its more about getting Wallin and Huskins OFF the team vice Erhoff being an uber-addition.

As far as 3rd and 4th lines.. we might not really have much of a choice there.. we have so much locked up in the Joe-Marleau-Heatley category that the cheddar gets a little thin that far down the depth chart.

I am not really that fond of Heatley, but we are stuck with him... I am sure the Senators are having a big chuckle there.

 

[Hovertical]

I think you lads are nuckin' futs when you say White can be resigned for 3.3 mil. It seems every year most of the people on the board drastically underestimate the overpayment for defensemen in free agency.

 

[Cmon_WTF]

I think you lads are nuckin' futs when you say White can be resigned for 3.3 mil. It seems every year most of the people on the board drastically underestimate the overpayment for defensemen in free agency.

There's a bit of a difference between re-signing a player and trying to sign one of the UFA open market. Often times the re-signing of a player comes much cheeper. If White is re-signed I expect it to be in the $3.5 - 3.75m range depending on the length of the contract. If he hits the open market he could possibly get as much as Paul Martin in Pitt ($5.0m).

 

[sjrules99]

There's a bit of a difference between re-signing a player and trying to sign one of the UFA open market. Often times the re-signing of a player comes much cheeper. If White is re-signed I expect it to be in the $3.5 - 3.75m range depending on the length of the contract. If he hits the open market he could possibly get as much as Paul Martin in Pitt ($5.0m).

Yeah, 3.3 might be a bit low, but I wouldnt be surprised for under 4, and I would resign him under 4. 4 yrs, 15M would be OK too though a bit lower would be nice. On the open market, I doubt he would get 5M. He's been traded a whole lot and has never played big minutes the way martin did. He had one year averaging nearly 24 mins/gm but was just 20 this year and in the PO's. Martin 23-25 mins every year and was proven top pairing guy for 5 years before signing with Pitt. I dont see white getting that kind of money even on the open market. 4 or 4.5 perhaps, but not 5. I think like you said, 3.5 or as much as 3.8 is pretty much all he is likely to get from the sharks.

What do you guys think of coburn from philly? They have some cap issues coming up, even if the cap goes up a some and they have a pretty full defense. Coburn will be a UFA after next year and philly already has a top 4 of pronger, timmonen, carle, and meszaros so coburn is probably the most expendable particularly given his salary of over 3M. Philly needs a farm big time, and I wonder if dougie could land coburn for petrecki, pretty much straight up (maybe add in a later round pick and/or forward prospect like wingels, viedensky, or varone.). Coburn had a quieter year offensively because of the depth of the flyer blueline, but he is big and pretty agile, right in his prime, reasonably priced, and could be a nice addition to round out the D. Boyle, White, Demers, Coburn, Vlasic, Murray, braun as the top 7. Not too bad?

 

[bdave]

would be nice to get bieska but no way vancouver trades him to us? I mean we'd most likely be cup favorites next year or at least major contenders.

 

[Cmon_WTF]

would be nice to get bieska but no way vancouver trades him to us? I mean we'd most likely be cup favorites next year or at least major contenders.

Bieksa is a UFA so no trade would be required. He needs a very mobile defensive dman like Hamhuis paired with him to be effective otherwise he doesn't offer much more than being a defensive liability. The Sharks currently don't have a mobile defensive dman they could pair with him.

 

[sjrules99]

Bieksa would be a good addition, but I strongly doubt it. That said, it will be tough for the nucks to keep him and ehrhoff. Both of them could easily command 5+ on the open market, particularly if the nucks win the cup. I dont think vancouver can pay that kind of money unless they unload ballard (which they may try to do). For UFA's, the sharks best bet is just resign white, and then look to add through trade, because the only UFA dmen who would potentially fit the sharks needs are going to be prohibitively expensive (pitkanen, Beiksa, possibly wisniewski) particularly with so many teams shopping for Dmen, particularly detroit and montreal. The trade market is far more fertile and it wouldnt be that bad to start the season with braun as the #6 dman. If he falters, then you know what you need, but if he plays well, then he could become a valuable piece of the future or trade chip.

 

[Cbrower91]

Yeah, 3.3 might be a bit low, but I wouldnt be surprised for under 4, and I would resign him under 4. 4 yrs, 15M would be OK too though a bit lower would be nice. On the open market, I doubt he would get 5M. He's been traded a whole lot and has never played big minutes the way martin did. He had one year averaging nearly 24 mins/gm but was just 20 this year and in the PO's. Martin 23-25 mins every year and was proven top pairing guy for 5 years before signing with Pitt. I dont see white getting that kind of money even on the open market. 4 or 4.5 perhaps, but not 5. I think like you said, 3.5 or as much as 3.8 is pretty much all he is likely to get from the sharks.

What do you guys think of coburn from philly? They have some cap issues coming up, even if the cap goes up a some and they have a pretty full defense. Coburn will be a UFA after next year and philly already has a top 4 of pronger, timmonen, carle, and meszaros so coburn is probably the most expendable particularly given his salary of over 3M. Philly needs a farm big time, and I wonder if dougie could land coburn for petrecki, pretty much straight up (maybe add in a later round pick and/or forward prospect like wingels, viedensky, or varone.). Coburn had a quieter year offensively because of the depth of the flyer blueline, but he is big and pretty agile, right in his prime, reasonably priced, and could be a nice addition to round out the D. Boyle, White, Demers, Coburn, Vlasic, Murray, braun as the top 7. Not too bad?

Couburn is would struggle in san jose, he has to many great dmen around him in philly that make him look better then he actually is.

his first step is pavelski-ish slow and he doesnt have very good agility. He is a product if his enviorment more then he is actually good. He is like a less talented Rathje and we know how that went here lol

 

[sjrules99]

really? granted, I havent watched him play that much, but I thought he was pretty agile for a big guy? His offensive numbers are down the past 2 years, but he has shows some good offensive pop in the past and he is just the right age. However, I'll take your work for it that he shouldn't be part of the solution.

Looking around the league, there really isnt going to be too much available over the summer. There are some that might come on the market when a specific team fades during the year, but it is seriously slip pickins... Makes resigning white that much more important...

 

[Cbrower91]

really? granted, I havent watched him play that much, but I thought he was pretty agile for a big guy? His offensive numbers are down the past 2 years, but he has shows some good offensive pop in the past and he is just the right age. However, I'll take your work for it that he shouldn't be part of the solution.

Looking around the league, there really isnt going to be too much available over the summer. There are some that might come on the market when a specific team fades during the year, but it is seriously slip pickins... Makes resigning white that much more important...

Mobility,non liability own end and first pass should be the primary things the sharks should look for in a dman.

I think Demers is really going to be a god send next season more so then people think, i mean he was hardly noticed in the regular season then all of sudden he was a huge force in the post season. Guys who elevate their games like that in those situation tend to take off the following season, kind of like Couture did.

I see a lot of Rob Blakes game in Demers, minus the ability to walk the blue line and probably not as good a hitter as Blake and isnt as good at controling the front of his own net like Blake. Overall he is better in his own end then Blake was so its a fair trade off.

A solid #2/#3 would be great, its just whos going to be available. Combined with Demers and Brauns curve, Brauns ability to walk the blue line is elite level good. I know the rest of his game needs some work but he isnt far off.

The sharks are very close to having top tier defense and alot of it will be home grown talent.

 

[sjrules99]

Mobility,non liability own end and first pass should be the primary things the sharks should look for in a dman.

I think Demers is really going to be a god send next season more so then people think, i mean he was hardly noticed in the regular season then all of sudden he was a huge force in the post season. Guys who elevate their games like that in those situation tend to take off the following season, kind of like Couture did.

I see a lot of Rob Blakes game in Demers, minus the ability to walk the blue line and probably not as good a hitter as Blake and isnt as good at controling the front of his own net like Blake. Overall he is better in his own end then Blake was so its a fair trade off.

A solid #2/#3 would be great, its just whos going to be available. Combined with Demers and Brauns curve, Brauns ability to walk the blue line is elite level good. I know the rest of his game needs some work but he isnt far off.

The sharks are very close to having top tier defense and alot of it will be home grown talent.

I like demers, but I dont see him at that level, at least not yet. His shot cant compare. Even in jr's, he didnt score all that many goals. He has above average skating ability, good vision and passing, and a reasonably shot, but I dont see him as a 24+ minute top pairing defenseman just yet. In a few years, but not at 22 or 23 years old.

As for Braun, I am far from convinced. He had some spurts last year, but was poor in his own end, which given his size, could be a problem. He may figure that side of the game out eventually, but it's unrealistic to expect him to be anything more than a bottom pairing defenseman and PP specialist next year.

With Boyle no longer able to be 'the' man on D, the sharks #2,3,4 dmen are going to be crucial. White, and demers can play in there, but vlasic and murray are not two-way guys and cant be counted on as threats. If boyle, demers and white are your only reliable two way threats, then they need one more, or they will suffer the same fate they have for many years: insufficient contributions from the blue line. I just dont see braun stepping into that 2-way role who can play 18-20 minutes of consistent hockey next year. In a couple years? very possible. but next year? I think that's pushing it.

Of course, if they start the season with boyle-murray, vlasic-demers, White-Braun as the Defense, then I dont think the D will be a liability anymore. It may not be SC worthy, but I dont think it will be the disaster it was the first half of last year with huskins and wallin out there.

 

[MrChangoT97]

So do you get the feeling Doug could sign either Huskins and or Wallin for another year, since the UFA d men class is so small.