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Treff's 2022 Mock Draft sure to be wrong

TREFF

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Well here's my sure to be %100 inaccurate mock draft, if for no other reason, than I don't include trades, and there's always a handful. I highly doubt day one of the draft is going to bring any real joy to dynasty leaguers or redraft guys hoping to find that electric rookie who can win their title from the mid rounds




1) Jacksonville Jaguars-
All five of the Top 5 teams have so many needs that honestly, what i think they should do, is simply draft the best player available, and that guy will fill a hole. For Jax, that has to be the hands down best prospect in this draft Aidan Hutchinson
What they will do - Aidan Hutchinson (EDGE)
2) Detroit Lions-
what they should do- again, so many holes, best player available. Here that's still the edge rush position. Either Walker of Thibodaux
What they will do- Walker (edge)
3) Houston Texans
what they should do- we've got a broken record here, Texans even more holes than the Jags and the lions combined imho- best player available, which is still EDGE
What they will do- Thibodaux (EDGE)
4) New York Jets
what they should do- Here's where some strategy finally enters. Jets need edge, edge after the big three here would be a reach. You can never go wrong with the best OL in the draft, even if its not truly a need. Evan Neal OT
What they will do- Evan Neal OT
5) New York Giants
what they should do- Giants need a ton as well. O line is at the top of the list. Luckily the best player available is OL. Ekwonu OL
What they will do- Ekwonu OL
6) Carolina Panthers
what they should do- here's where the draft will truly start. Panthers have no shortage of needs, QB being top of the list. But QB here, with this class seems to be a stretch. What they SHOULD do, is trade down. OR take that QB I guess, even though I think it's a mistake
What they will do- Kenny Pickett QB
7) New York Giants (from Chicago Bears)
what they should do- second top ten pick..lucky them? While I personally think they would be best served concentrating on the OL and DL, the best player on the board is a corner, and they have a need there too.
What they will do- Ahmed Gardner (CB)
8) Atlanta Falcons
what they should do- with no prospects whatsoever of contending this year, does it matter? Outside of MAYBE Houston, the biggest wasteland, entirely devoid of talent on either side of the ball. Best player available on my board is a safety. But no safety is going to be a building block. I say the SHOULD go with Cross (OL)
What they will do- Jameson Williams (WR) well, it's splashier, so I'll give em that, but no line, no run game, a marginal QB..sure lets start the rebuild as far away from the ball as possible and work our way in..that ALWAYS works well. Why Williams? he's the only receiver I see in this draft who is a 'complete' WR and not great at one or two things and mediocre at the rest like everyone else. He is a new Amari Cooper in my eyes, and not just because they share a college lineage. And I love Amari, but he's not the best in the league at anything, he's just really good at everything
9) Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos)
what they should do- well, sans Russel Wilson for the first time in a LONG time, what should the Seachickens do?? Again, a near complete rebuild, the best way to do it is start at the ball and work your way outward, that means OL, which is, again, Cross (OL)
What they will do- most likely something ridiculous like a DB- Hamilton (S) or Stingley (CB), (still better than a WR to start your rebuild though)
10) New York Jets (from Seattle Seahawks)
what they should do- with their 2nd top ten pick. I certianly don't expect logic to win out two times in a row, especially not from an organization like the Jets. But what they should do..agian..OL..again..Cross
What they will do- most likely a splashy WR, my guess is Garret WIlson. Who will most likely disappoint as there were simply too many superior athletes in Ohio States WR depth chart to determine who truly was the alpha who who truly could be the alpha..more often than not, neither are the alpha.
11) Washington Commanders
what they should do- Contrary to most opinions you can find out there, I do fell the 'Commanders' have a big need at OL, so again, I think they SHOULD go cross. They also SHOULD go QB, which should be Mallik WIllis
What they will do- I'm guessing whichever DB Seattle doesn't take at #9, Hamilton or Stingley
12) Minnesota Vikings
what they should do- The first team in the draft that actually has legit playoff possibilities is now on the clock. Personally I like Jordan Davis (DL) or Jermaine Johnson (EDGE)
What they will do- most likely secondary help, even though Aaron has no weapons at the moment (which is why the Vikings are the Vikings and the Packers always win the North). Booth or McDuffie (both CB's)
13) Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns)
what they should do- Texan's second pick of the draft, good, because they need about 12 more. Stick to the basics, take Cross, build that line, worry about the rest later
What they will do- Cross (OL)
14) Baltimore Ravens
what they should do- Well I think they need a couple maulers up front to open up lanes for Jackson, Dobbins, and CO. But, Baltimore also needs to re-acquire that nasty-ness on defense and assert some authority, THAT IS who they are and always have been Jermaine Johnson (EDGE)
What they will do- Jermaine Johnson (edge)
15) Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami Dolphins)
what they should do- Eagles are an interesting team, they have pieces to be exciting. Yet they really aren't. Hurts doesn't have the chops to truly threaten a defense outside of his legs, so a WR, while a big need, I don't think is the best pick. Again, more big hawgs up front to strengthen that most run happy offense in the league the second half of last season would be my pick; Tyler Lindbuam (OL)
What they will do- Chris Olave WR Because they need a WR who can take the top off. Hurts can throw deep, not for sure where it'll end up all the time, but he can throw deep, so there is that.
 

TREFF

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16) New Orleans Saints (from Indianapolis Colts through Philadelphia Eagles)
what they should do-The Ain'ts are in the unenviable position of having massive holes virtually everywhere, and not being in a draft postion indicative of that lack of talent. Just as well start with that line..whatever the best available OL happens to be is what they should do

What they will do- the massive Trevor Penning (OT)..or they royally screw up and draft Drake London (WR).

17) Los Angeles Chargers
what they should do- Chargers are set pretty much everywhere except the O and D line, so a pick anywhere in those two areas is what they should do
What they will do- Kenyon Green (OL)
18) Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans Saints)
what they should do- Since they most likely screwed up and took a WR with their previous pick, they REALLY should go OL here, and wow, Lindebuam is still available
What they will do- Karliftas (EDGE) Maintaining the flare over substance motto, they go with an Edge rusher that might get a few sacks
19) New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia Eagles)
what they should do- same as the previous pick, anything O or D line is perfect.

What they will do- Drake London. Could be a worse pick, but they have much bigger needs than finding Michael Thomas's eventual replacement or even a running mate for him this year. And I have my doubts that Drake London is anything more than a reincarnation of "Big" Mike Williams out of USC in 2005

20) Pittsburgh Steelers
what they should do-well, they NEED a QB, in addition to numerous other things, I think they should pull the trigger on Malik WIllis, luckily for them, according to my mock draft, he's still there
What they will do- Malik Willis (QB)

21) New England Patriots
what they should do- QB is good, RB is good, line is adequate but could use a piece or two, and the WR room is horrid. BB always makes lemonade out of whatever he's got on D. I'm gonna go with WR, that being Traylon Burkes or maybe Pickens
What they will do- N Dean or D Lloyd (both LB)..something tells me BB is gonna shove Harris and Stevenson (among others) down everyone's throat and rely on D D and more D to win games. Just as well take your pick as the LB green room hasn't gotten a phone call all night..pick of the litter

22) Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas Raiders)
what they should do- Well, AAron came back, and immediately has less to work with then last year..which wasn't much. Obviously the biggest need offensively is WR, although an OL would be nice as well. I'm going with the WR here. Normally I wouldn't, but A A Ron is what drives this ship, so he needs something out there, and the OL has been picked over a bit at this point in the draft. Pickens or Burks again here
What they will do- B Raiman (OL) not quite a middle finger to Rodgers, as this is his protection..but there ya have it
23) Arizona Cardinals
what they should do- ARZ really needs some pass rush to diffuse those Rams. Unfortunately I don't see an EDGE rusher left who is worthy of a #1 pick. They also need some secondary help and CB hasn't been picked over too badly yet. Whichever is sitll there between McDuffie and Booth is who I think they should take
What they will do- Pickens (WR)..they don't need one..NUK, Green and R Moore can handle the load with no problems, but good luck telling Mr Air Raid that-maybe he should get his QB extended first?
24) Dallas Cowboys
what they should do- Dallas needs a near entirely new starting 5 along the O line. what they have who are still plus players are old and brittle, or sub par stop gap options collected from league wide yard sales. Luckily Zion Johnson fits that bill quite nicely
What they will do- Zion Johnson (OL)
25) Buffalo Bills
what they should do- set offensively, imho, I would go with pass rush or secondary help, best Corner left on my board is McCreary, who may be a bit of a reach here. But anything defensive would be good. you can never have enough DB's DL's and LB's. It would be a massive mistake to take a RB/WR here. the ones available aren't worth it and the need isn't great enough to make that reach
What they will do- defense..but I'm truly stumped as to who. It could be the best defensive player available situation here, who imho, would be whichever LB NE didn't take.
26) Tennessee Titans
what they should do-tough call- offense to me is set all around, although they do need to consider a Henry backup/replacement soon. The Defense is solid most areas. Most places say OL/WR/RB are the biggest needs OL at this point is a stretch. they have no need for a WR, they'll barely use the ones they have. Best player on my board regardless of position is Daxton Hill (S), so I'm goin with that. Maybe they can find someone willing to trade back up into the first for a QB?
What they will do- Johan Dotson- not only an unnecessary WR, but a stretch for this one here to boot.
27) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
what they should do- If I'm Todd Bowles, I'm prepping for life without Tom brady, RIGHT NOW. Matt Coral learning behind Brady for one year is about the best outcome you could expect
What they will do- Best DL available--on my board that's D Wyatt. Because, you're not going to be the coach that didn't do everything you could to win right now with TB12 at QB
28) Green Bay Packers
what they should do- GB has shot #2 at getting Rodgers a weapon. Problem is the ones worthy of being selected here, already have been. Christian Watson, imho, is a longshot here. A small school guy you'd typically gamble on in the third round..but maybe?
What they will do- Christian Watson- who I believe to be a big stretch, BUT, could pan out.
29) Kansas City Chiefs (from San Francisco 49ers through Miami Dolphins)
what they should do- First of 2 back to back picks. Chiefs biggest needs, to me, are OL, DL/EDGE, LB, RB, WR. Pickings are slim at all those spots except RB. I do expect a DL here, either Mafe or Logan Hall for me
What they will do- Mafe (DE)
30) Kansas City Chiefs
what they should do- well, this is both my football sense, and my heart speaking here, but the Chiefs should take Breece Hall here and let CEH ride the pine as soon as possible
What they will do- Sky Moore (WR) raw, unproven, and virtually untapped. could be a stud, could be Darrius Heyward Bey. An absolute crap shoot, or he'd have gone much higher.
31) Cincinnati Bengals
what they should do-as was exposed in the superbowl, the Bengals need some help up front, both protecting Burrows and opening holes for Mixon. Also as exposed in teh Super Bowl, they need some serious help defensively. I'm gonna go wit the defensive side here, likely Corner as its the deepest spot left at this point. K. Elam or K Gordon
What they will do- K Gordon (DB) a little more versatility with Gordon, while not quite so refined in man coverage as Elam.
32) Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams)
what they should do- well trade Stafford to get a pick which ends up being the team who wins the SB, and still be in position to try your hand at a QB replacement? Why not right? I personally like Sam Howell, but i wouldn't argue against Ridder here
What they will do- I'd truly be shocked if they don't take a QB here, but, the draft is at times shocking so..A Ebeketie (EDGE), giving the Lions two new bookends to harass A A Ron and Cousins.

I see the Falcons taking Hall at 43, or Walker if Hall is taken by some savy team earlier.
the rest all likely end up in RB hell holes
 

TKOSpikes

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Lots of fan-media hype for Breece Hall to the Bills.

Happy to see you also find that ridiculous. I hope Beane finds it ridiculous too!
 

Clayton

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I have Mafe and Gordon as my Chiefs picks. This is really close to where I see them so I can't really nitpick. Moore is also someone I see them picking.

Chiefs needs are Edge, CB, then WR, then split safety. RB after that.

I can get behind Jameson Williams being the top receiver but I think he compares to a Steelers Mike Wallace and less like a traditional #1.
 
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TREFF

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I have Mafe and Gordon as my Chiefs picks. This is really close to where I see them so I can't really nitpick. Moore is also someone I see them picking.

Chiefs needs are Edge, CB, then WR, then split safety. RB after that.

I can get behind Jameson Williams being the top receiver but I think he compares to a Steelers Mike Wallace and less like a traditional #1.
to be honest, I don't see ANY of the WR's available in this years class to be a traditional #1, I just have Williams being the closest..but not by much. I would say Garret WIlson would be the next one, but I'm hesitant to give him the nod because of Olave, I can't decipher how much was due to themselves or how much was due to them having the other guy on the opposite side. LSU with Jefferson and Chase..they simply exploded off film, you could see it was both of them on their own, I don't see that wth these two. But, I hope I'm wrong, I'd love to have a couple more stud options to pick from.
 

Clayton

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to be honest, I don't see ANY of the WR's available in this years class to be a traditional #1, I just have Williams being the closest..but not by much. I would say Garret WIlson would be the next one, but I'm hesitant to give him the nod because of Olave, I can't decipher how much was due to themselves or how much was due to them having the other guy on the opposite side. LSU with Jefferson and Chase..they simply exploded off film, you could see it was both of them on their own, I don't see that wth these two. But, I hope I'm wrong, I'd love to have a couple more stud options to pick from.
Garrett Wilson's combine numbers are what you look for in a #1. Torry Holt mold. Wilson isn't as polished as you'd like a top 10 pick to be.

Pff NFL comparisons I've seen:

Olave - Johnny Knox
Pickens - TJ Housh
London - Courtland Sutton
Skyy Moore - Edelman
Burks - Josh Gordon

That would be a good list if none of them bust. (Some will). It's not a good list if you're looking for Chase or Jefferson.
 

averagejoe

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Olave - Johnny Knox
Hope Olave has better hands than Knox. Loved his speed, but all i remember is how wide open he was only to see balls bouncing off his hands.
 

Clayton

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Hope Olave has better hands than Knox. Loved his speed, but all i remember is how wide open he was only to see balls bouncing off his hands.
Olave is known for reliable hands so probably not the best comparison on their part. That said, I'm not as high on Olave as some are but some like him more than Wilson
 
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TREFF

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Garrett Wilson's combine numbers are what you look for in a #1. Torry Holt mold. Wilson isn't as polished as you'd like a top 10 pick to be.

Pff NFL comparisons I've seen:

Olave - Johnny Knox
Pickens - TJ Housh
London - Courtland Sutton
Skyy Moore - Edelman
Burks - Josh Gordon

That would be a good list if none of them bust. (Some will). It's not a good list if you're looking for Chase or Jefferson.
It's funny how some come up with these comparisons

NFL draft analyst Lance Zuerlien
Gave these-
Williams- Fuller
Wilson- none listed
Olave- McLaurin
London- Ed McCaffrey
Pickens- Josh Reynolds
Burks - AJ Brown
Sky Moore - Keesean Johnson

I don't see much of that happening..except maybe the Pickens and Skye Moore ones
 

Clayton

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It's funny how some come up with these comparisons

NFL draft analyst Lance Zuerlien
Gave these-
Williams- Fuller
Wilson- none listed
Olave- McLaurin
London- Ed McCaffrey
Pickens- Josh Reynolds
Burks - AJ Brown
Sky Moore - Keesean Johnson

I don't see much of that happening..except maybe the Pickens and Skye Moore ones
Scary Terry has a Vert of 37.5. Olave 32.

That's like when draft experts were comparing David Montgomery to Kareem Hunt
 

leftypower

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Well Treff, I'd say your guess as to what happens is as good as anyone of the 'experts' putting out mocks. The common theme is that most of the value in this draft is in OL and DL - with a few WR's sprinkled in. All and all, not much fanfare for any of the offensive skill position players. I imagine that all changes depending on landing spot - - but the mocks I've seen don't have them going to any great spots. I guess the exceptions are KC and GB with the WR's, but other than that, it's hard to see any high level production coming out of any.
 

tlance

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@TREFF

There is no QB worth drafting in round 1 this year, so please don’t say my team should draft one!

Willis going to bust for sure. Pickett is a stop gap or high end backup at best.

All the teams near the top of round 1 need to either trade down or take the best player available. The teams that draft QB will regret it.
 

Clayton

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My guess is Willis is going 1st round. Carolina or Seattle depending on if anyone wants Baker Mayfield.

Maybe Corral at 30-32 to Detroit or Seattle.
 

TREFF

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@TREFF

There is no QB worth drafting in round 1 this year, so please don’t say my team should draft one!

Willis going to bust for sure. Pickett is a stop gap or high end backup at best.

All the teams near the top of round 1 need to either trade down or take the best player available. The teams that draft QB will regret it.
Well, first of, lemme say I totally agree with the statement in bold. And also with the statement about trading down. Problem is finding someone willing to trade up.


But, as to the Commanders, I have 2 questions
1. Are they, or can they realistically be a legit SB team with Carson Wentz
2. Since that answer is no..is there anyone they can draft that changes the fact that Carson Wentz is the QB, other than a QB?

Maybe one of them isn't a good answer this year, but, with the right coaching, the right system, and a year to watch and learn, maybe one of them could be a good answer next year?

I mean you ain't wrong, but, given the circumstances, it's worth a shot if they identify a guy they can develop
 

TREFF

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My guess is Willis is going 1st round. Carolina or Seattle depending on if anyone wants Baker Mayfield.

Maybe Corral at 30-32 to Detroit or Seattle.
I sure don't disagree with the logic, but...

Given the desperation around the league to acquire a QB...

It's not hard to imagine a 3,4, maybe even making that reach
 

MilkSpiller22

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Well, first of, lemme say I totally agree with the statement in bold. And also with the statement about trading down. Problem is finding someone willing to trade up.


But, as to the Commanders, I have 2 questions
1. Are they, or can they realistically be a legit SB team with Carson Wentz
2. Since that answer is no..is there anyone they can draft that changes the fact that Carson Wentz is the QB, other than a QB?

Maybe one of them isn't a good answer this year, but, with the right coaching, the right system, and a year to watch and learn, maybe one of them could be a good answer next year?

I mean you ain't wrong, but, given the circumstances, it's worth a shot if they identify a guy they can develop

Washington is one of the only “bad” teams that I think should go defense in the first round. I think for them to do well is all dependent on their defense.
 

MilkSpiller22

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I’m not a bpa or a best player needed drafter. I think all teams should know their identities. And draft the best player for their identity. What I mean is if you are a defensive minded team but have no WRs you don’t need a wr. As your wr Corp is still going to suck.

I also think all rebuilding teams should only draft offensive line and skill players. Especially teams like the Jaguars and Jets who just drafted a qb last year. Give them all the talent they need to succeed. And if they do then you can build defense later.

Remember also free agents like to go to better teams. And will often take pay cuts. So make yourself appealing.
 

Trudem

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@TREFF

There is no QB worth drafting in round 1 this year, so please don’t say my team should draft one!

Willis going to bust for sure. Pickett is a stop gap or high end backup at best.

All the teams near the top of round 1 need to either trade down or take the best player available. The teams that draft QB will regret it.
That position is ALWAYS over drafted because teams HAVE to have one. I bet at least two go and as many as 3/4 go in the first
 

SmokingMonkey

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That position is ALWAYS over drafted because teams HAVE to have one. I bet at least two go and as many as 3/4 go in the first

The rest of the team gets a lot easier to build when you have a franchise QB, teams without one will always be looking to draft one.
If the QB doesn't go in the top 10 picks of the draft but they are still a "1st round" pick, buyer beware - not many from that draft position have been good in the NFL. LJax is the only one I can remember in recent years, and he's a running QB.
 

Trudem

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The rest of the team gets a lot easier to build when you have a franchise QB, teams without one will always be looking to draft one.
If the QB doesn't go in the top 10 picks of the draft but they are still a "1st round" pick, buyer beware - not many from that draft position have been good in the NFL. LJax is the only one I can remember in recent years, and he's a running QB.
Mac Jones was ok last year. Justin Fields we shall see and Davis Mills did ok for a rookie on that trash team

Watson was #12 in 2017
Dak Prescott was a 4th round pick in 2016.

Its possible but it is difficult I agree.
 
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