Kaepernick's Potential Contract Extension

[badazzk9]

It seems almost as if Kap's reps paid JLC to write such a piece.

It absolutely read that way.

 

[badazzk9]

The bold part for sure. There was rapid development? I must have missed that. I guess the bottom line is that the price for a decent QB has gone thru the roof and the elites will be making 40 mil a season in two years.

That's more true then trying to argue is Kap worth it or saying how much he has progressed.

 

[MHSL82]

Contract inflation coming soon to an NFL team near you. I'm definitely in favor of locking in locking up as many of the young core players as possible ahead of the increase. Locking up the younger marginal players could add a lot of future trade value too. Just wait and see how bad the average QB's get overpaid once with the increase...

And if the average QB takes what they are worth, they will be discussed in the media as being less than average because of their deal, as opposed to being paid what they are worth (while other average QBs no better are paid more and thus... better?).

 

[MHSL82]

"So, Kaepernick, if he signs a contract extension with the 49ers, will be doing so in the range of $20 million per season, putting him among the top five or six salaries in the history of the game. Otherwise, he'll play for his $1M in 2014 and then force the issue with the 49ers as to whether they franchise him, or sign him to what will in all likelihood be an even more massive contract come 2015 if this kid continues to develop as rapidly as he has to this point. And you can go ahead and ask the Ravens if they would have preferred to have Flacco signed at around $16.6M annually, as they could have in 2011, or Flacco at $20.1M annually, as was the case when he put pen to paper after winning the Super Bowl following the 2012 season."

I read the whole thing and hated reading it.

I hate that Flacco's deal keeps being pushed out there as if there's some imperative to sign now because since Flacco did it, it's not a gamble. How about Matt Ryan? They upped him and he looked good and/or ascending. I believe in Kaepernick more than Ryan (and Flacco for that matter), but come on. There is that risk and that goes along with the idea that you always want to pay your QB as little as you can. Denver wanted to pay Manning less, too, but they didn't because they couldn't. The Niners, right now, can. Later, they could or could not, but it would be harder perhaps.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Let me begin by saying that if the Niners view Kap as the future, they should make every effort to sign him this offseason, before other QBs start signing big contracts and driving the rate up even higher. That said, if Kap is looking for something in the area of $20 million, then let him earn it next year. Sure, there's a chance the Niners get caught in the Flacco conundrum. But what're the odds of that? And even if they do, the $19 million they save this season should mitigate that.

It's hard to find a comparison point for Kap here. Flacco was on a big rookie contract, as was Matt Ryan. They weren't making nearly what they are now, but they were taking up a big chunk of cap space. Kaepernick is not, so there is far less pressure on the organization to get a deal done this offseason. Similarly, Romo and Cutler were approaching FA. If the organization has any doubts about Kap at all, and I don't see how they couldn't have at least some, they should not offer him premium QB money at this time.

 

[imac_21]

Show me a team with a 20 mill/year QB that has a deep, talented roster like ours....especially on D. Kap, IMO is not good enough to carry this team by himself. with no talent, he would suck ass.

Show me a team that has a 20M/year QB with a $133M salary cap.

 

[imac_21]

So you're saying that that money is just purely extra money and the result of the increase in the cap over the next few years isn't that salaries across the board will increase?

Come on Ray, you're better than that. You know that more money to be spent means that in effect all players will get paid more when they sign new contracts.

The 49ers can't just say "Aw sweet, $10 million more than we expected! Fuck it, lets just throw it at our mediocre QB!"

No, they can't just throw it at their mediocre QB. Fortunately, we're not talking about giving Alex Smith 20M per year. He's not here anymore. We have a good QB.


But with the 123M cap last year, a 20M/year contract was approximately 16% of the cap. A 20M/year contract in two years is projected to be 13% of the cap. 16% of the cap at that point would be 24M. Would you like to wait and sign him to that deal? Maybe we can lose a quality QB over a few million dollars again and go through the Tim Rattay/Cody Pickett/Ken Dorsey/Alex Smith/Troy Smith/Shaun Hill/JT O'Sullivan experience again.

And who the fuck is suggesting Kaepernick isn't worth Cutler and Stafford money?

 

[numone9er]

Let me begin by saying that if the Niners view Kap as the future, they should make every effort to sign him this offseason, before other QBs start signing big contracts and driving the rate up even higher. That said, if Kap is looking for something in the area of $20 million, then let him earn it next year. Sure, there's a chance the Niners get caught in the Flacco conundrum. But what're the odds of that? And even if they do, the $19 million they save this season should mitigate that.

It's hard to find a comparison point for Kap here. Flacco was on a big rookie contract, as was Matt Ryan. They weren't making nearly what they are now, but they were taking up a big chunk of cap space. Kaepernick is not, so there is far less pressure on the organization to get a deal done this offseason. Similarly, Romo and Cutler were approaching FA. If the organization has any doubts about Kap at all, and I don't see how they couldn't have at least some, they should not offer him premium QB money at this time.

That pretty much sums up how I feel as well. We actually have him for 2 years anyways don't we?

 

[imac_21]

Let me begin by saying that if the Niners view Kap as the future, they should make every effort to sign him this offseason, before other QBs start signing big contracts and driving the rate up even higher. That said, if Kap is looking for something in the area of $20 million, then let him earn it next year. Sure, there's a chance the Niners get caught in the Flacco conundrum. But what're the odds of that? And even if they do, the $19 million they save this season should mitigate that.

It's hard to find a comparison point for Kap here. Flacco was on a big rookie contract, as was Matt Ryan. They weren't making nearly what they are now, but they were taking up a big chunk of cap space. Kaepernick is not, so there is far less pressure on the organization to get a deal done this offseason. Similarly, Romo and Cutler were approaching FA. If the organization has any doubts about Kap at all, and I don't see how they couldn't have at least some, they should not offer him premium QB money at this time.

Kaepernick signing an extension would not cost us 20M in cap space this year, so not signing him doesn't save us 19M.

 

[imac_21]

I think it's silly to talk about a contract that averages 20M per season as having a cap number of 20M per season. I believe we have all been following this league long enough and closely enough to know that the per year average has virtually nothing to do with the cap number. A logical extension could be 100M over 5 years for an average of 20M per year (signed through 2019), but structured along the lines of. . .

2014: no change to base salary, 8M roster bonus (counts against the cap all in 2014 = cap number of about 9.5M
2015: 5M base salary, signing bonus of 15M paid (counts 3M per year) = cap number of 8M (in the year we'd be looking to sign Aldon and Crabtree)
2016: 9M base, 8M roster bonus = cap number of 20M.
2017: 11M base, 14M roster bonus = cap number of 28M
2018: 13M base = cap number of 16M
2019: 15M base = cap number of 18M

That amounts to 98M, we can fit 2M in workout bonuses over the length of the contract which would adjust the cap number by a few hundred grand each year, but that's negligible.

This gives us three years to continue his audition at a reasonable price. If he's playing well and we like what we see after 2016, we can easily restructure going into 2017, convert that 14M roster bonus to signing bonus or future money and lower that cap number as well as tack on a few years. If he's not playing well enough to stick around after 2016 and we want to cut ties, we have 9M in dead money, but it would amount to a savings of 19M against on the cap.

We now have a situation where he's getting 45M over the first 3 years (including 2014 where he already is signed, in terms of the first 3 years in the new contract, he'd get 62M in the first 3 years. It's a 5 year, 100M extension with 47M guaranteed in the first 3 years of the new contract, we have outs if it doesn't work out, there's a cap "hole" in 2015 that allows a front loaded contract to Aldon and/or Crabtree due to a small cap number for Kap.

If we were to sign him to that contract (which is much simpler than it would actually be, but consider this an outline), cutting him each year would cost (net vs the cap):

2015 - 8M cap hit on the roster vs $0.00 if cut. Net savings of 8M
2016 - 20M cap hit on the roster vs $21M if cut. Net loss of 1M in cap space
2017 - 28M cap hit on the roster vs 9M if cut. Net savings of 19M
2018 - 16M cap hit on the roster vs 6M if cut. Net savings of 10M
2019 - 18M cap hi on the roster vs 3M if cut. Net savings of 15M

So under this structure, he gets paid if he earns it, if he doesn't, there is only one year where cutting him doesn't save us money, and it only costs us $1M dollars. If he shits the bed next year, we can cut him with absolutely 0 cap hit.

Note that the cap numbers would change based on workout bonuses, but those would each be 250k to 500k per year and wouldn't be significant factors.


This is all potential, I don't know if Kap and his agent would agree to it. They might insist on a signing bonus in 2014 which would affect things a bit, but not necessarily significantly. I can outline a structure with a signing bonus in 2014 if anyone would like.

 

[maniax]

Maybe now is the time to sign him, because this might actually be the buy low opportunity.

Suppose we draft another WR, let's say its Cooks and he becomes a real weapon at slot receiver.
Then Kap has a full healthy season with Crabs - Boldin - Cook and Vernon. Maybe Lattimore also comes in and gives us a nice 1-2 punch at RB. The offense could be better next year. Plus if he actually wins it all next year then he'll pull a Flacco on us.

If Kap was a free agent right now, many teams would be banging on his agent's door offering $20M/year. Every team with a question mark at QB would be doing it. (Vikings, Browns, Bucs, Texans, Raiders, Jags).

 

[whysies]

No, they can't just throw it at their mediocre QB. Fortunately, we're not talking about giving Alex Smith 20M per year. He's not here anymore. We have a good QB.


But with the 123M cap last year, a 20M/year contract was approximately 16% of the cap. A 20M/year contract in two years is projected to be 13% of the cap. 16% of the cap at that point would be 24M. Would you like to wait and sign him to that deal? Maybe we can lose a quality QB over a few million dollars again and go through the Tim Rattay/Cody Pickett/Ken Dorsey/Alex Smith/Troy Smith/Shaun Hill/JT O'Sullivan experience again.

And who the fuck is suggesting Kaepernick isn't worth Cutler and Stafford money?

I guess it depends on your definition of "good." Here's a list of QBs I think are better than Kap:

Brady
Roethlisberger
Luck
Manning
Manning
Rivers
Romo
Stafford
Rodgers
Ryan
Brees

And I think it's debatable who is better amongst Newton, Wilson, and Kap. I'm not convinced he's better than Cutler or Foles. At best he's the 12th best QB, and he could be somewhere between the 15th-17th.

I don't want to pay a guy like that 20 million a year unless he greatly improves, and I don't think he gave any indication this season that he is going to improve. At best, he stagnated. Great athlete and a lot of potential no doubt but I wouldn't say he's a "good" QB at this point.

I'm so glad you're posting again. I think I speak for all of us when I say that we missed your salty, bitter ass imac. How you been brother? And where have you been? Did you get buried under a snowdrift or attacked by a moose or something? This board is worse without you, please post more!

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Kaepernick signing an extension would not cost us 20M in cap space this year, so not signing him doesn't save us 19M.

The savings comment was at least somewhat hyperbolic.

 

[imac_21]

I guess it depends on your definition of "good." Here's a list of QBs I think are better than Kap:

Brady
Roethlisberger
Luck
Manning
Manning
Rivers
Romo
Stafford
Rodgers
Ryan
Brees

And I think it's debatable who is better amongst Newton, Wilson, and Kap. I'm not convinced he's better than Cutler or Foles. At best he's the 12th best QB, and he could be somewhere between the 15th-17th.

I don't want to pay a guy like that 20 million a year unless he greatly improves, and I don't think he gave any indication this season that he is going to improve. At best, he stagnated. Great athlete and a lot of potential no doubt but I wouldn't say he's a "good" QB at this point.

I'm so glad you're posting again. I think I speak for all of us when I say that we missed your salty, bitter ass imac. How you been brother? And where have you been? Did you get buried under a snowdrift or attacked by a moose or something? This board is worse without you, please post more!

I'd take Kap over quite a few of those guys. Rodgers, Brees, Peyton, Brady and Luck are the only ones I would definitely take over him (Rodgers and Luck are the only ones I'd want long term, just for age reasons)

I don't think 20M is all that unreasonable.

I didn't really go anywhere, I just didn't have anything to say for awhile. I got tired of reading the same discussions about Kaepernick over and over and over and over and over. Definitely didn't have any issues with snow. I think I have had snow on the ground here this winter for about 8 total days.

I didn't really make a conscious effort to stop posting, or to start posting again. It's kind of organic, and I imagine I'll be posting more regularly again for awhile, particularly as FA starts.

 

[AngryNiner]

First I want to say that I dont believe Kaep will get signed to an extension this offseason.
This cap being risen business is being way over blown and so is the Flacco contract, imo. I think that it is absurd to seriously expect every decent qb that comes along to get 16 to 18 to 20 mil per just because there is more cap space. For instance take the new rookie pay scale. That was brought about because teams were tired of paying HUGE contracts that took up all of their cap. The same thing is going to happen with these HUGE QB contracts. Not a QB pay scale, but teams will stop giving these guys money they just havent earned.
Take a look at guys that got these big deals. Throw away the Flacco and Cutler deals those were just plain retarded and made no sense to everybody. Rodgers, Ryan, Brees, P. Manning, Romo, Stafford, and E. Manning. All of them have a body of work in on field stats to back up why they are Franchise QBs and why the deserve to be paid like it. Guys like Kaep, RGIII, Wilson, Newton, ext. do no not have that body of work. There will always be head scratchers like the Cutler deal but those, especially with a good front office, will be the exception.

If the 49ers dont sign him this offseason and they go on to win the Superbowl, unless Kaep really does improve dramatically into a Rodgers like passer next year, they in no way have to sign him to 20 plus per. The 49ers are not the Ravens it is a totally different situation. Teams will not continue to bow and roll over on these qb contracts.
Look at how the 49ers have done business in the past. They spread the wealth through the team and have gone deep in the playoffs with two different qbs. This is leverage for why they dont need to sign Kaep to a huge contract and even an excuse to move away from him completely if they choose to, which they might.
Many, including Harbaugh, believe Harbaugh to be a qb whisper that can groom another young qb or stop gap vet. This formula for the 49ers has been pretty successful so far, no?

If they can, I do believe that they should try to resign him to a more realistic and deserving contract, something like 11-13 mil per. I still think that is more then he is worth now but i think all things considered (even the cap increase) that is a fair and realistic contract of an up and coming player.
And if he is the real deal like Kaep believes that he is, then he will be around for another contract. One where he may actually have earned the type of money he is asking for.

 

[imac_21]

The savings comment was at least somewhat hyperbolic.

I know. But there have been quite a few people talking as if a 20M per year contract means 20M in cap space. Your post seemed like a good opportunity to point that out to all.

Originally my post immediately following the one you quoted (with the hypothetical contract structure) was a part of the post you quoted. I separated them because I didn't want to come across as if I were lecturing you on salary structure.

 

[whysies]

I'd take Kap over quite a few of those guys. Rodgers, Brees, Peyton, Brady and Luck are the only ones I would definitely take over him (Rodgers and Luck are the only ones I'd want long term, just for age reasons)

I don't think 20M is all that unreasonable.

I didn't really go anywhere, I just didn't have anything to say for awhile. I got tired of reading the same discussions about Kaepernick over and over and over and over and over. Definitely didn't have any issues with snow. I think I have had snow on the ground here this winter for about 8 total days.

I didn't really make a conscious effort to stop posting, or to start posting again. It's kind of organic, and I imagine I'll be posting more regularly again for awhile, particularly as FA starts.

When you start including potential into the mix things get murkier. He's a great athlete and still has a lot of potential. But it's not like he's 21 years old or anything, and if he doesn't start showing some improvement on the basics (like clock management, running away from ghosts, etc.) I'm going to believe less and less in his potential.

If we are just talking about purely playing the quarterback position, there's a lot of guys I think do it better than him.

I think it's all moot (for now) anyway because I don't really see him getting an extension this year. I'm excited to see what he can do as our QB next year, although my excitement is greatly tempered as compared to last year given his body of work last year.

 

[imac_21]

First I want to say that I dont believe Kaep will get signed to an extension this offseason.
This cap being risen business is being way over blown and so is the Flacco contract, imo. I think that it is absurd to seriously expect every decent qb that comes along to get 16 to 18 to 20 mil per just because there is more cap space. For instance take the new rookie pay scale. That was brought about because teams were tired of paying HUGE contracts that took up all of their cap.

You forgot a key part of this. They were tired of paying huge contracts to players who hadn't taken a snap in the NFL

The same thing is going to happen with these HUGE QB contracts. Not a QB pay scale, but teams will stop giving these guys money they just havent earned.
Take a look at guys that got these big deals. Throw away the Flacco and Cutler deals those were just plain retarded and made no sense to everybody. Rodgers, Ryan, Brees, P. Manning, Romo, Stafford, and E. Manning.

Some of these guys you list are on their 3rd or 4th contract. It's also important to consider the change in salary cap. Of course Peyton Manning wasn't making 18M per year in 2004. Manning's 04 contract averaged 14M per year (98M for 7 years), but the salary cap that year was $80.582M. If Kap were to get 18M per year on a $133M cap he takes up 13.5%. 14M with an 80M cap is 17.5%.

Simply put, you can't compare contracts from 10 years ago to contracts today. The most Montana ever made in a year was 3.25M. We can't use that as a standard to judge today's QB salaries.

All of them have a body of work in on field stats to back up why they are Franchise QBs and why the deserve to be paid like it. Guys like Kaep, RGIII, Wilson, Newton, ext. do no not have that body of work. There will always be head scratchers like the Cutler deal but those, especially with a good front office, will be the exception.

If the 49ers dont sign him this offseason and they go on to win the Superbowl, unless Kaep really does improve dramatically into a Rodgers like passer next year, they in no way have to sign him to 20 plus per. The 49ers are not the Ravens it is a totally different situation. Teams will not continue to bow and roll over on these qb contracts.

They will. They have to. Unless you want to role out Tim Rattay 2.0 in 2015.

Look at how the 49ers have done business in the past. They spread the wealth through the team and have gone deep in the playoffs with two different qbs. This is leverage for why they dont need to sign Kaep to a huge contract and even an excuse to move away from him completely if they choose to, which they might.

They spread the wealth when they got rid of Jeff Garcia too. They went 8 straight years without making the playoffs, and earned them the first overall pick, the 6th overall pick, the 11th, the 7th, the 10th, the 13th, and the 7th pick overall. That's 7 straight years with a top 15 pick because we chose not to pay a QB.

Many, including Harbaugh, believe Harbaugh to be a qb whisper that can groom another young qb or stop gap vet. This formula for the 49ers has been pretty successful so far, no?

No, it hasn't.

If they can, I do believe that they should try to resign him to a more realistic and deserving contract, something like 11-13 mil per. I still think that is more then he is worth now but i think all things considered (even the cap increase) that is a fair and realistic contract of an up and coming player.
And if he is the real deal like Kaep believes that he is, then he will be around for another contract. One where he may actually have earned the type of money he is asking for.

That contract is an insult to Kaepernick and shows a significant lack of understanding of NFL economics on your part. If you managed to coerce him into that contract, you'd be dealing with a QB holdout in the very near future.

After reading your last paragraph, I really regret taking the time to type of the responses I did.

 

[-AC-]

Eli Manning Stats - New York Giants - ESPN
Ben Roethlisberger Stats - Pittsburgh Steelers - ESPN
Matthew Stafford Stats - Detroit Lions - ESPN
Matt Ryan Stats - Atlanta Falcons - ESPN
Jay Cutler Stats - Chicago Bears - ESPN
Andrew Luck Stats - Indianapolis Colts - ESPN
Russell Wilson Stats - Seattle Seahawks - ESPN
Colin Kaepernick Stats - San Francisco 49ers - ESPN

Body of work right? You can go through each of the above links and pick apart each body of work. You can also make the argument that most of the player links above have had far better weapons to assist their bodies of work (minus Wilson and Luck). Even Romo and Rivers who have had great regular seasons under their belts have had very average post season performances. Rivers had his first good playoff run performance just this season, and it only took him 11 seasons to accomplish that. And both Romo and Rivers have had very good weapons during their careers...

The bottom line is, its all debatable. But if you look at body of work, there is very little in the above links to distinguish why these players are so much better than Kaepernick. Amazing to think that a one read QB could be on par with such elite company, wouldn't you agree?

 

[imac_21]

When you start including potential into the mix things get murkier. He's a great athlete and still has a lot of potential. But it's not like he's 21 years old or anything, and if he doesn't start showing some improvement on the basics (like clock management, running away from ghosts, etc.) I'm going to believe less and less in his potential.

If we are just talking about purely playing the quarterback position, there's a lot of guys I think do it better than him.

I think it's all moot (for now) anyway because I don't really see him getting an extension this year. I'm excited to see what he can do as our QB next year, although my excitement is greatly tempered as compared to last year given his body of work last year.

Potential is always a consideration. He's not 21, but he's not 35 either. He's played 3 years. In those three years he has shown significant improvement. If, as AngryNiner says, Harbaugh is this QB whisper, why should we believe Kaepernick will stop developing? Do we question his commitment to improving? It isn't as if he's fucking around and wasting time trying to play for the Texas Rangers. He's working to get better.

I also think saying something like "playing the quarterback position" is dangerous. The QB position in the NFL is going through a fairly significant change right now. Kaep doesn't throw the ball as well as Peyton or Rodgers, but he does bring things to the position that those guys don't. That's now part of playing the quarterback position.

Everyone wants to bad mouth Kap right now because of his performance against Seattle in the NFCC game, but how did Brees do against that defense? How about Manning? Kap's legs gave us a chance to win that game. That's a new dimension.

It was revealed by Kap after the season that he didn't run as much in the regular season because he was told not to, due to concerns about him getting injured. One of the proposals before the competition committee this year is to give more protection to option QBs. If that happens, Kap's value goes up even more. It may not happen in 2014, but if they're talking about it, it will happen eventually.