Kaepernick's Potential Contract Extension

[Ray_Dogg]

Good to know reporters in Boston have their finger on the pulse of all the latast San francisco 49ers news...

Actually our own Matt Barrows was the first to report that Kap's agent would be asking for $18M.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

If Kaepernick gets the 18 million they were talking about on ESPN this morning, the team is sunk. Hopefully they are not stupid enough to go back into salary cap hell for Kaepernick.

We wouldn't be going in to salary cap hell. We also wouldn't be giving him that much this year. The cap is rocketing up the next two years and there is more than enough space to fit a QB deal in. We already have shitloads of space the next two years. We can also roll forward whatever is unused from the $15M in space we would have by cutting Rogers.

 

[-AC-]

Actually our own Matt Barrows was the first to report that Kap's agent would be asking for $18M.

Thanks Ray, I was busy all day yesterday and missed a ton of news... Boston wouldn't be my first choice for realiable 49er news...

 

[purguy12]

We wouldn't be going in to salary cap hell. We also wouldn't be giving him that much this year. The cap is rocketing up the next two years and there is more than enough space to fit a QB deal in. We already have shitloads of space the next two years. We can also roll forward whatever is unused from the $15M in space we would have by cutting Rogers.

I agree we will be fine even if we gave this much out. Also Baalke has been very creative with big contracts. I trust him.

 

[Dodub]

I wouldn't give him $18 million per right now, if he shows improvement next season then I would consider it but he hasn't earned that type if contract yet. I say see what he does next year and make him earn it, if we have to tag him then we tag him but right now if he wants a contract it has to be what he's earned and he hasn't earned that yet.

I will also go on the record of saying that I believe Romo, Cutler and Flacco are also vastly overpaid.

 

[MHSL82]

Here's a conversation I had with someone on the NFL General Board. Make sense?

If one team will pay Revis 16MM, then the market for Revis is 16MM. If one team will pay anybody anything, then THAT's the market.

I hope we get Wilson for 18MM. He surely won't get paid any less than that.

That's true, but not the whole thing. I don't know much about antiques, but if I had money and I felt somebody was going to take it for $100,000 when the next guy bidding would give actually only pay $25,000; if I give $110,000, I paid over market value. For everyone else, if they wanted it, they'd have to pay $110,001 or more.

The way I see it is, market value is what anybody else besides you would pay. So it depends on who you are. For someone other than Tampa Bay who wants Revis, 16 million is the market, as you say, because they'd have to outbid the Buccaneers. But for Tampa Bay, the team who just traded for him and the only team who could negotiate with him, who knows what the market was? 12 million? Could they have paid 13? If you say he would leave for less than 16 and sign with a contender for 10 but Tampa Bay for 16, that's not the market, that's the player.

 

[purguy12]

I wouldn't give him $18 million per right now, if he shows improvement next season then I would consider it but he hasn't earned that type if contract yet. I say see what he does next year and make him earn it, if we have to tag him then we tag him but right now if he wants a contract it has to be what he's earned and he hasn't earned that yet.

I will also go on the record of saying that I believe Romo, Cutler and Flacco are also vastly overpaid.

I understand what you are saying but sometimes waiting isn't good. What If we win the Superbowl and he wins MVP of the Superbowl. Now he goes from 18 mill to 20-22 million.

Fair amount right now would be 16 million. Good news Romo just redid his contract so he cant go by that anymore.

 

[purguy12]

Someone would pay 18 mill for Kap. That is the issue. Kap and his agent is looking for fair value and they have great examples.

 

[MHSL82]

I understand what you are saying but sometimes waiting isn't good. What If we win the Superbowl and he wins MVP of the Superbowl. Now he goes from 18 mill to 20-22 million.

Fair amount right now would be 16 million. Good news Romo just redid his contract so he cant go by that anymore.

Someone would pay 18 mill for Kap. That is the issue. Kap and his agent is looking for fair value and they have great examples.

Him leaving would be the risk, not the pay. If you ask me whether I should pay 18 now when he could prove to be worth 12 (or less) vs. not pay 16-18 but he could demand 20-22 later, I'd say the 6M overpay risk is more than the 2-4 increased price.

But if he would leave, that's a different matter. If he won a SB and we offered 22 and he left, then the waiting cost us. We wouldn't offer him 16 or 18 if he won, we'd offer the 20-22, so why would he leave?

 

[darken65]

I understand what you are saying but sometimes waiting isn't good. What If we win the Superbowl and he wins MVP of the Superbowl. Now he goes from 18 mill to 20-22 million.

Fair amount right now would be 16 million. Good news Romo just redid his contract so he cant go by that anymore.

It is a gamble really. I guess the real question the 9ers need to ask is 'is Kap our guy for the long term'. IMO a season and half can't answer that. He needs to play out his contract and then we will see. Locking him up with a long term contract might backfire if he performs badly next season and/or he never progresses beyond what he is now. I hope he does well...this has been my team since 1976....of course I want them to get the Lombardi....just my 2 cents.

 

[MHSL82]

It is a gamble really. I guess the real question the 9ers need to ask is 'is Kap our guy for the long term'. IMO a season and half can't answer that. He needs to play out his contract and then we will see. Locking him up with a long term contract might backfire if he performs badly next season and/or he never progresses beyond what he is now. I hope he does well...this has been my team since 1976....of course I want them to get the Lombardi....just my 2 cents.

What people forget is that we are a pretty damn good team in a great market and a good place to live and that whatever money we'd offer later is probably in the ballpark of what he'd be asking if we win the SB. Sure, winning a SB would give him leverage, but we got some, too. Plus, he has to buy in somewhat to the team concept and have some interest in building a legacy.

Leaving because we offer him 18-20 after a SB victory when he could demand 22-24 elsewhere should not be the deal breaker. Call his bluff, use the leverage. The question at that point is, "can you do it again?" They're not going to purely pay for past accomplishments. Plus, what's the big deal? Money is often filler back-loaded and the cap is going up, we'd probably at least make it publicly look like the 22-24 range.

 

[maniax]

We have a window here to win a Superbowl that I think is open for 2+ years more (longer if we draft well, keep Harbaugh).

I don't really see any other QB option other than Kap for this window.

Who are you going to replace him with? There isn't even a free agent QB that will come close.

So I don't really see any other options other than to re-sign Kap.


What will most likely end up happening is we'll sign Kap to an extension, probably have a window of opportunity with him through that next contract, and we'll either win it or not with him. If Kap cannot win it in the next 4-5 years then it's time to move on.


So like it or not, it will probably be on Kap to win it in the next 4-5 years. I like it, he's a very dynamic QB.
I personally think out of all the QBs that faced the Seahawks in the playoffs this past year, he performed the best. Brees came close, Peyton sucked shit.

 

[whysies]

We have a window here to win a Superbowl that I think is open for 2+ years more (longer if we draft well, keep Harbaugh).

I don't really see any other QB option other than Kap for this window.

Who are you going to replace him with? There isn't even a free agent QB that will come close.

So I don't really see any other options other than to re-sign Kap.


What will most likely end up happening is we'll sign Kap to an extension, probably have a window of opportunity with him through that next contract, and we'll either win it or not with him. If Kap cannot win it in the next 4-5 years then it's time to move on.


So like it or not, it will probably be on Kap to win it in the next 4-5 years. I like it, he's a very dynamic QB.
I personally think out of all the QBs that faced the Seahawks in the playoffs this past year, he performed the best. Brees came close, Peyton sucked shit.

Problem is if you give him that money it can't go to someone else.

Assuming Kap doesn't improve, I would rather have, say, McCown+Jimmy Graham vs Kap. Kap has played at an average level all things considered. I would rather have a journeyman stop gap plus other good players than just Kap. You would give up some QB running production but I think if you have a guy that is a proficient caretaker/game manager the team would be better served with that type of QB plus other players than Kap as he is right now.

If Kap takes a big leap, I'd rather Kap. Will he take a big leap? No one knows. But he hasn't shown anything to suggest he will improve IMO. Again, not going to call him a big dumb drooling retard but if anything he regressed this year.

At least Romo has proved that he is a good NFL QB. You pay Kap as much as Romo and that's largely based on potential. That's scary to me.

 

[AngryNiner]

Someone would pay 18 mill for Kap. That is the issue. Kap and his agent is looking for fair value and they have great examples.

I honestly doubt that, unless we are talking about the likes of the Jags, who would be looking for more then just a Franchise qb but for ticket and Jersey sales. If thats the case then call his bluff! If the money means that much to him let him walk and see how he does with Jags like talent around him.
We keep forgetting that we have leverage too. More then then Kaep! If we win the Superbowl next season, its the same thing. Call his bluff. The market has to correct itself on these QBs. Aside from Peyton, Rodgers, Brady and Brees these guys getting these deals just are not worth what they are marking. Baalke is a very smart guy and doesnt just bow in these contract situations.
If all they are looking for is fair value they wouldnt be looking for 18 mil per for a guy with 1.5 years worth of production under his belt.
At some point, especially with the kind of money that is being talked about, Common sense will prevail.

 

[MHSL82]

Extend at the Bye? That could give him the off-season and half of a season, it would still involve the gamble of winning/not winning a SB, and give us a longer look. He starts the season running (by good passing) and it can be looked at as a "you better sign me now" type of thing.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Someone would pay 18 mill for Kap. That is the issue. Kap and his agent is looking for fair value and they have great examples.

Someone else can't pay Kap $18 million a year right now. The benchmark this year is not what he'd net as a FA. It's what is fair to both the team and him realizing that he is a low-paid vet right now. If he wants to play out his contract, then his reps can come back to us and say, "Well, we could get this on the open market right now." He's not on the open market.

 

[imac_21]

This started as one post (the rest is below), but I felt this part was the most important and wanted to give it its post. The other stuff will come in the next post...

I also want to preface these two posts by apologizing if any of this has already been brought up. I haven't read the whole thread, just the last few pages.

Despite all the talk about 18M being a lot of money for Kap, it could turn into a real bargain. (this is based on the idea that he continues to play at his current level, I'm not saying it's a bargain if he takes the next step or two, in that case it clearly would be a bargain)

It could be a bargain in the sense that we get him locked up long term (say 5 years) before the cap really starts to explode upwards. They're already projecting another huge jump in the cap for 2015, and I believe the TV contracts are up soon, and that will only bring in more revenue. We can get him extended extended in the current economic climate, right before a significant change that will lead to bigger contracts. The current $16-20M contracts QBs are signing are albatrosses because of the economic climate. . .

Remember, following the lockout in 2011 the cap dropped significantly, and stagnated. 2014 will be the first year the cap is higher than the pre-lockout cap. An 18M per year contract in 2015 or 2016, with a cap of about $150M is a much different situation than that contract with a cap of $120M.

 

[imac_21]

There's a lot out there on this issue, and some things need to be addressed.

First, if we choose to let him play out his contract and then tag him (possibly multiple times) we take a few risks:

First, we have no idea what the tag value will be in 2015, 16 or beyond. But tags are fully guaranteed. This year the tag cost is 15M, but with projected increases in total cap we can project fairly significant increases in the tag value. Particularly with Newton, Luck Wilson and RG3 (assuming he bounces back next year) all eligible for extensions in the next 12 months.

The second thing to consider is how the tag is calculated. It's based on the top 5 CAP NUMBERS at the position, not the top 5 base salaries. So if teams choose to take advantage of the significant increases in cap space the next two years and front throw roster bonuses at their QBs, that will drive the tag value up.

Thirdly, using the franchise tag makes signing the player to an extension very difficult. If we were to tag Kap we would have until July 15 (that used to be the date, it may have changed in the new CBA) to sign him to an extension. If we were to sing him to an extension after that date and before the season ended, we would forfeit the use of the tag until Kap's contract expired. We would have a very small window to negotiate an extension with him before we would have to tag him again (assuming we continue deep playoff runs, we'd have about a month, that includes the combine).


Lastly, we risk having one tag and at least two very worth players as FA at the same time (Aldon, Kap and possibly Crabtree depending on your feelings on him).

 

[-AC-]

This started as one post (the rest is below), but I felt this part was the most important and wanted to give it its post. The other stuff will come in the next post...

I also want to preface these two posts by apologizing if any of this has already been brought up. I haven't read the whole thread, just the last few pages.

Despite all the talk about 18M being a lot of money for Kap, it could turn into a real bargain. (this is based on the idea that he continues to play at his current level, I'm not saying it's a bargain if he takes the next step or two, in that case it clearly would be a bargain)

It could be a bargain in the sense that we get him locked up long term (say 5 years) before the cap really starts to explode upwards. They're already projecting another huge jump in the cap for 2015, and I believe the TV contracts are up soon, and that will only bring in more revenue. We can get him extended extended in the current economic climate, right before a significant change that will lead to bigger contracts. The current $16-20M contracts QBs are signing are albatrosses because of the economic climate. . .

Remember, following the lockout in 2011 the cap dropped significantly, and stagnated. 2014 will be the first year the cap is higher than the pre-lockout cap. An 18M per year contract in 2015 or 2016, with a cap of about $150M is a much different situation than that contract with a cap of $120M.

The increasing cap numbers have been brought up... For some posting in this thread, it does not matter that Kaepernick's potential contract could be average half way through or a bargain at its end, they simply can't get over the fact that Kaepernick would be at the same level of pay as Cutler, Romo and Stafford...

The cap dictates the numbers, and the numbers will obviously go up from here... The rumored asking price of 18 million can easily become an asking price of 20 million next season if Kaepernick were to improve or if he were to make another deep run in the playoffs, in which both scenarios are very possible... I think York, Baalke and Harbaugh recognize this and will try to get a deal in place this off-season for slightly less than the current asking price...

I understand the skepticism, but at the same time I also see his potential high salary as a temporary burden that will average out over the length of the contract... Just like any other large contract, it is some what of a gamble... But I don't think it is as big of a gamble as others are making it out to be...

 

[purguy12]

If Kap was a FA he would find a team to give him 18 million. U know how many teams are looking for a Starting QB. With out Doubt he finds a couple teams to give that much or more. We are talking about a starting QB that made it to the super bowl and back to back NFC Championship games. Also has a good playoff record.