Kaepernick's Potential Contract Extension

[MHSL82]

Sigining Kap to $20 million/year isn't going to cripple the team, but it will undoubtedly weaken the team. He will have to be successful without the same caliber of talent around him. I sure as hell hope he can do it.

This. Those who say that it'll break the bank and defensive guys will leave need to look at structuring and increasing cap. Those who say it isn't a concern because of the increasing cap need to look at the Niners not wanting to extend Gore a year, signing bonus to save this year because that would just cost money next year. If Gore is a cap concern this year and next year (if we tried to spread the cap hit out) beyond just the roster spot, it means something if we jumped in pay.

 

[badazzk9]

The Niners will almost certainly lose either Iupati or Crabtree, and very possibly both. Presumably they will hold onto Aldon, but that will cost them at other positions as well.

As for Kap's play, I think he is mediocre as a passer. Frankly, I think Stafford is overpaid. He's a mediocre QB; a physically talented guy who plays with a transcendent player but hasn't come close to getting it down. Eli has defined inconsistent throughout his career, but he's proven he can come through in the clutch. Without his SB victories, no one would view him as an elite QB.

I'm not saying we shouldn't pay Kap, but I'd negotiate the hell out of a deal that's either in the area of $15-16 million/year, or make damn sure we can get out of it in two or three years.

Kap is under contact for a year and can be franchised the next two. Negotiations are about leverage, the 9ers have all the leverage right now and should low ball him. Why should the 9ers drop their shorts and hand him a huge contract? Most answer this as "IF the 9ers win a Superbowl the price goes up" The price wont go up much more then 20 mil per year. I'd also take those odd as we weren't even 1st in our division this year and I wouldn't sleep on Arizona or St Louis next year. Its hard to win a Superbowl and that good for long.

 

[-AC-]

Posting up stats like that deserve that response. Stats are for baseball use the eyeball test for football.

It was warranted after reading all of the stats on how great Stafford is based on his "stats"... Do I think that Kap could put up gaudy numbers in the Detroit offense throwing 634 wild passes to the likes of Calvin Johnson? Um, ya... I pretty much do...

 

[AngryNiner]

I don't know how you can make any passing stat comparison of a player who throws 220 passes more then the next guy without using averages. Then you throw out higher completion %. You do realize Stafford had a 58.5 completion %. That's a whopping difference of .1%. Perhaps Kap's passing numbers would be a lot better throwing to that Calvin guy.

As for the money Kap's stats are better then Cutler's last 2 healthy seasons.

Stats aren't everything but if these are the stats for Kap's ceiling then that's still very good. I guess you think Kap can't improve.

What do all of those guys have in common? all of them have had 4000 yard seasons. Eli nearly made 5000 in one year. Hence they have a body of work Kaep doesnt. I believe kaep simply doesnt have the skills to put up the kind of passing numbers those guys put up in their offenses. The only argument Kaep has is deep playoff runs on a loaded team. The other guys like Manning have big numbers and two Superbowl wins. So Manning has a case for that contract Kaep doesnt.
Until he puts up the passing stats and the deep playoff runs I dont believe you can give him the contract he wants. I dont think the 49ers give it to him either.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

What exactly is wrong with the ypa stat?

 

[Xponentialchaos]

What do all of those guys have in common? all of them have had 4000 yard seasons. Eli nearly made 5000 in one year. Hence they have a body of work Kaep doesnt. I believe kaep simply doesnt have the skills to put up the kind of passing numbers those guys put up in their offenses. The only argument Kaep has is deep playoff runs on a loaded team. The other guys like Manning have big numbers and two Superbowl wins. So Manning has a case for that contract Kaep doesnt.
Until he puts up the passing stats and the deep playoff runs I dont believe you can give him the contract he wants. I dont think the 49ers give it to him either.

What exactly are you basing that on? Stafford had over 4000 yards last year and Kap didn't. But Stafford had 634 attempts compared to Kap's 416.

I don't see how you can use yardage as a measuring stick while ignoring the factor in the number of attempts. If Jamarcus Russell was with the Lions and launched the ball 50 times a game to Calvin Johnson, I bet he'd have a high yardage as well.

 

[MHSL82]

What exactly is wrong with the ypa stat?

It goes against his qualms over total yards passing. That is the end all, be all, damnit!

 

[MHSL82]

What exactly are you basing that on? Stafford had over 4000 yards last year and Kap didn't. But Stafford had 634 attempts compared to Kap's 416.

I don't see how you can use yardage as a measuring stick while ignoring the factor in the number of attempts. If Jamarcus Russell was with the Lions and launched the ball 50 times a game to Calvin Johnson, I bet he'd have a high yardage as well.

He said earlier in the thread that Stafford got all those passes due to trust in him, not because of no tunning game or defense (though never running makes the running totals go down).

 

[imac_21]

Before Crabtree came back he had Bolden and Davis. Yep, just a couple of slouches. If he cant get it done as a passer with those two weapons how is he deserving of top money? The argument we are having, taking into context the thread we are in, Is Kaep worth franchise qb money? Is he worth 16 - 20 million per year? The answer should be pretty obvious given the stats he put up. Kaeps stats this year: 58.4 cmp% 3,197 yards 21TDs 8INTs. 18 mil per year? Really?
You bring ypa like it is the god stat. Sorry, its not. Kaep cant even check the ball down, but you're right, all things equal his play stands up to theirs. If you really believe that you are blind.

The point that I was making, Not that it matters you will just avoid it again, It takes Kaepernick a season and a half to do something it took Stafford to do in one. Kaep had 8 whopping yards more. While Stafford had 10 more TDs and a higher cmp%
Everything equal do you really believe that Kaep puts up the same numbers as Stafford? 91 yards dude. 91 yards. How is that even possible? A high school qb could do as much. Lets give him 18 mil per.
The pass first league thing i was alluding to is the fact that league rules favor the passing game yet he still only put up 91 yards.

Running stats for a qb? please.

Still waiting on those stats to show how he has improved. Still not coming are they? Because there are none to be had. However, you claim he has improved. I guess stats aren't everything.

I want to end the argument because I am worn out on the topic. Not because your ypa stats have blown my mind. But if it makes you feel better to believe this, have at it.

So, is it Boldin (not Bolden, he was a DB with the Falcons) or Davis that is the equivalent of Calvin Johnson?

You say YPA is a nothing stat, but talk up yards like it's something wonderful. The more times a QB throws, the more yards they will accrue. Do you dismiss yards per catch and yards per carry so easily as well?

It took Kaepernick a season and a half to throw as many passes as Stafford did in one season too. He had 8 more yards in roughly 30 less passes. When you factor in running (which is a big part of Kap's game) he has 1 less TD (41-40). He also had less interceptions. But you go ahead and ignore that. He had his 91 yard game without Crabtree and Davis.

But continue to ignore context.

And yes, running stats for a QB. You may not have noticed, but it's no longer the 1980s (you know, when Dan Marino deserved to be paid way more than Joe Montana). But arguing QB runs don't matter will certainly make Carolina happy. They get to ignore 2000 yards and 28 TDs from Cam Newton when they negotiate his extension.

What stats do you want that show he sees the field better?

I hope ypa hasn't blown your mind. I believe you're tired of the argument because you recognize that Stafford and Manning are not worth a significantly bigger contract than Kaepernick.

It was also a damn shame to see how badly the Giants were crippled financially by Manning's extension. All they did was win a Super Bowl a few years later while losing super-vital cogs like Brandon Jacobs and Mario Manningham.

As for the idea that signing your QB to a big contract cripples your cap space that many have presented in this thread:

Baltimore has about 26M in cap space this year.
Atlanta has about 17M
Detroit has almost 10M, that's with Suh counting for 22.4M
GB has 24M
New Orleans has 8M (with Graham franchised)
NYG has 16M

2014 NFL salary cap: Where each team stands as free agency looms - CBSSports.com

All of those teams have QBs with those big fat cap killing contracts. However will they deal?

 

[imac_21]

All these QBs started on sub .500 teams, turned their teams around and brought home a Superbowl ring. Also showed significant improvement under contract.

I must have missed Drew Brees winning a Super Bowl in San Diego. What year was that?

Roethlisberger had one statistically good season when he signed his extension. He signed his second contract in March of 2008. He led the NFL in interception in 2006.

Peyton signed his second contract in 2004. He was drafted in 1998. Anyone else want to see what happens if the Niners wait until Kap has been in the league for 6 seasons before they offer him his second contract?

Also, how many Super Bowls had Peyton won in 2004?

 

[imac_21]

To secure an extension a year earlier than he otherwise would. He could bank $30 million this year with a hefty signing bonus and salary increase, or he can play on a one-year contract that pays him $1 million and risk losing everything - granted a career-ending injury is highly unlikely.

That's the reason that's thrown out for every player that is going to be franchised: He should take less to sign long term in case he gets injured. How many players have been negatively impacted in their earnings by not signing a low ball extension?

Furthermore, if the Niners low ball him and he signs a deal that averages 14M per (hypothetically), how's everyone going to feel if he continues to lead us to NFCC and beyond, and we watch Newton, Wilson, Luck and Griffin (assuming he recovers) sign 18-22M per year contracts, and then Kap holds out?

I'm not vehemently opposed to paying Kap big money. He is likely to get it at some point unless he falls apart next year. But the other QBs who have signed huge extensions recently were either high first round picks or going into FA. As such, they either had considerable leverage, or the extensions didn't signify a dramatic increase from what was already allotted to the QB position.

Sigining Kap to $20 million/year isn't going to cripple the team, but it will undoubtedly weaken the team. He will have to be successful without the same caliber of talent around him. I sure as hell hope he can do it.

It won't weaken the team nearly as much as losing a great QB if he leaves next year. If losing surrounding talent is a(n unjustified) concern, then draft well. If you're concerned about losing Crabtree, draft a replacement.

Also, let's not all pretend as though the team hasn't been preparing to give him a lucrative extension since he came onto the scene last year. Contract structures can easily be manipulated with option and roster bonuses so everyone can get paid in different years without falling into cap hell.

For example,

Willis' contract number in 2012 was 17M, in 2013 it was 2.3. Next year it will be 6.3 (without any adjustments).

Staley's cap hit in 09 was over 13M. The rest of the contract it is never over 7M.

We can sign Kap to a big extension this year and leave a "hole" in his cap number next year to get Crabtree and Aldon dealt with (I was unimpressed with Iupati this year and think he'll want more than he's worth, but we could work it to keep him too).

 

[imac_21]

The Niners will almost certainly lose either Iupati or Crabtree, and very possibly both. Presumably they will hold onto Aldon, but that will cost them at other positions as well.

As for Kap's play, I think he is mediocre as a passer. Frankly, I think Stafford is overpaid. He's a mediocre QB; a physically talented guy who plays with a transcendent player but hasn't come close to getting it down. Eli has defined inconsistent throughout his career, but he's proven he can come through in the clutch. Without his SB victories, no one would view him as an elite QB.

I'm not saying we shouldn't pay Kap, but I'd negotiate the hell out of a deal that's either in the area of $15-16 million/year, or make damn sure we can get out of it in two or three years.

If they lose Iupati and/or Crabtree it isn't because they can't afford to keep them. It's because the team felt the asking price was too much.

Just about every QB in the NFL is overpaid. The only ones that aren't are Rodgers, Peyton, and possibly Brady (though he seems to be slipping in his age). The market is what the market is. We can think that Ryan, Flacco, Cutler, Stafford, Eli, and Romo are all overpaid, but that's the market. If you're house hunting, and dead set on a certain neighbourhood, just because you think everyone else there overpaid doesn't mean you'll get a house there cheaper. The market is set.

If you negotiate a deal that is only 15 or 16M you'll only have him for 2 years on it, or you better be afraid of the upcoming hold out.

 

[imac_21]

Re: the Stafford comparison, it must be noted that he faces a lot more seven-man boxes. Every D he faces defends the pass first. It's the opposite for the Niners. Not saying he's better than Kap, but just comparing YPA isn't really fair when the Niners face a lot more passing-friendly defensive schemes and can run play action very effectively given the success/persistence of the run.

When trying to build a case for Stafford, citing the defenses he plays against probably isn't the best way to go about it. 6 of Kaepernick's 16 games this year came against 4 teams that finished in the top 7 in scoring defense this year (Seattle (1st), Seattle, Carolina (2nd), New Orleans (4th), Arizona (7th) and Arizona).

All 4 of those teams were in the top 6 in yards allowed as well. Houston was 7th.

The Packers were 25th in yards allowed and 24th in points
The Bears were 30th in yards allowed and 30th in points
The Vikings were 31st in yards allowed and 32nd in points

 

[imac_21]

This. Those who say that it'll break the bank and defensive guys will leave need to look at structuring and increasing cap. Those who say it isn't a concern because of the increasing cap need to look at the Niners not wanting to extend Gore a year, signing bonus to save this year because that would just cost money next year. If Gore is a cap concern this year and next year (if we tried to spread the cap hit out) beyond just the roster spot, it means something if we jumped in pay.

I just think it's common sense to avoid that situation if possible. The Gore situation makes more sense arguing the opposite of what you're trying to say. They don't want to extend Gore to create space this year because they don't need to.

I think we all recognize there is a good chance that a year from now there will not be a spot on the roster for Gore. If we sign him to an extension, and then cut him next year, he still counts against the cap next year. Since we are in very good cap shape, we don't have to create a situation where Frank Gore is not a San Francisco 49er in 2015, but his contract is.

If we were extending Gore it would be a sign of an unhealthy cap (see Polamalu, Troy; Miller, Heath)

 

[imac_21]

Kap is under contact for a year and can be franchised the next two. Negotiations are about leverage, the 9ers have all the leverage right now and should low ball him. Why should the 9ers drop their shorts and hand him a huge contract? Most answer this as "IF the 9ers win a Superbowl the price goes up" The price wont go up much more then 20 mil per year. I'd also take those odd as we weren't even 1st in our division this year and I wouldn't sleep on Arizona or St Louis next year. Its hard to win a Superbowl and that good for long.

He can be franchised next year, where he will take up 18+M against the cap EVEN WHEN HE ISN'T SIGNED.

When we tag him, he can also sign with another team. Sure, we get two first round picks out of it, but we don't have a QB.

So, who's excited about the prospect of going into 2015 or 2016 with a rookie QB?

But there has to be some kind of benefit from franchising Kap? I mean, once we tag him he takes up all that cap space even if he doesn't sign the tender. And since the franchise tag is a one year contract, we can't manipulate the structure to keep his cap hit low in 2015. What can we gain from that?

Oh yeah, 2015 is when Crabtree and Iupati are UFAs. I really like the idea of tying to re-sign Crabtree and Iupati with 18M or so tied up in Kaepernick. Oh well, at least we'll still have Kaepernick when Crabtree and Iupati leave (assuming no other team decides having a QB that earned the franchise tag is worth giving up 2 first round picks for. Especially a team with a great defense that just needs a QB to put them over the hump, like say St Louis). Then we can tag him again in 2016.

That's perfect, that's when Aldon's a FA. Assuming we exercise the option and agree to pay him about 11M in 2015 (and can somehow fit that in the cap with Kaepernick being tagged).

So, the worst case scenario being painted by the "don't sign Kaepernick" crowd is that we sign him to a big deal and he turns into Mark Sanchez.

My worst case scenario is that we don't sign him, he plays well, earns the franchise tag and costs us Iupati, Crabtree and Aldon because of the restrictions of the tag. And maybe we end up losing him as well.

At least we can get 2 first round picks for Kaepernick, and maybe 3rd round picks for Aldon, Iupati and Crabtree.

That's how you build a winner folks! Draft players, coach them up to being great NFLers, and then create a situation where you can't keep them.

 

[imac_21]

What do all of those guys have in common? all of them have had 4000 yard seasons. Eli nearly made 5000 in one year. Hence they have a body of work Kaep doesnt. I believe kaep simply doesnt have the skills to put up the kind of passing numbers those guys put up in their offenses. The only argument Kaep has is deep playoff runs on a loaded team. The other guys like Manning have big numbers and two Superbowl wins. So Manning has a case for that contract Kaep doesnt.
Until he puts up the passing stats and the deep playoff runs I dont believe you can give him the contract he wants. I dont think the 49ers give it to him either.

Well, since Kap has better YPA than those guys, I'm going to say that if he got to throw 600 times a season, he could put up a 4000 yard season.

And now you're saying you need the big stats and a deep playoff run for the big contract. When was Stafford's deep playoff run? How about Romo?

 

[MHSL82]

I just think it's common sense to avoid that situation if possible. The Gore situation makes more sense arguing the opposite of what you're trying to say. They don't want to extend Gore to create space this year because they don't need to.

I think we all recognize there is a good chance that a year from now there will not be a spot on the roster for Gore. If we sign him to an extension, and then cut him next year, he still counts against the cap next year. Since we are in very good cap shape, we don't have to create a situation where Frank Gore is not a San Francisco 49er in 2015, but his contract is.

If we were extending Gore it would be a sign of an unhealthy cap (see Polamalu, Troy; Miller, Heath)

My fault. I read Ray Dogg's post in the Cut Gore Thread:

I wish they would approach him about a pay cut but his response would probably be convert it to signing bonus and add another year to my deal. No thanks.

and thought that he was saying somehow we were trying to have him take a pay cut this year, not only because he wasn't worth the money but also because we needed cap this year - thus, the temptation to spread the cap hit with a signing bonus and extension, in which the Niners aren't doing - despite the increased cap next year. I was saying that if they wouldn't make a move to save money this year (which I assumed they needed to) because it would cost them cap next year, that next year was a cap-strapped year with Crabtree, Aldon, etc. coming due and thus a big extension versus a little extension, however small (Gore's hit would be small) was a concern.

Phew. That was a lot of explaining for reading too much to another's posts.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

It goes against his qualms over total yards passing. That is the end all, be all, damnit!

Heh, loved the video you added.

Maybe someone should mention that Joe Montana never had more than 4000 yards passing. Oops, I just did.

/thread

 

[MHSL82]

Heh, loved the video you added.

Maybe someone should mention that Joe Montana never had more than 4000 yards passing. Oops, I just did.

/thread

First off, I know you're joking. But it reminded me:

I think someone should add NinerSickness's list of quarterbacks compared to the average of that year chart. He once did a chart that compared every quarterback within each year or period of time to each other and then he added that together. Joe Montana was one of, if not, the best. I forgot who it was, but there was a prominent quarterback who is pretty low compared to what he's believed to be. I think I might've been Elway or Marino or something.

 

[erckm510]

Posting up stats like that deserve that response. Stats are for baseball use the eyeball test for football.

Yeah I don't think Big Ben/Brees/Eli/Romo were those QB's after 1.5 seasons of starting.