Kaepernick's Potential Contract Extension

[imac_21]

AngryNiner,

You want to pay Kaepernick less than Mark Sanchez makes. Kap has had two years where he has started and produced a passer rating of 90+ both times. Sanchez has never surpassed 80.

Kap's "bad year" saw him average 7.69 ypa. Sanchez's best year in ypa was 6.71.

Kap had a 5:2 TD:INT ratio this year. Sanchez's best was 13:9. Sanchez started for 4 seasons. Twice he had more INT than TDs.

Kap's "down year" saw him complete 58.4% of this passes. Sanchez's best completion percentage is 56.7.

Kaepernick's down year would have been far and away the best year Sanchez ever produced. But Kap deserves less money than Sanchez gets.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I hesitate to speak for him, but I think the point that AngryNiner is making is that Sanchez was grossly overpaid. He doesn't want the Niners to repeat that mistake.

This all depends upon how you view Kap. If you think he's a franchise guy, you give him $18 million and think you got off lucky. If you don't think he's a franchise guy, or aren't sure, then you run the risk of handcuffing the franchise to mediocrity.

I don't question Kap's work ethic, but I do wonder if he's working on the right things. Last offseason he (seemingly) spent a lot of time working on his strength and speed. That's not what he needs to improve. He's already in the top two or three QBs in the league in those areas. He just needs to more or less maintain his current level. He needs to improve his footwork, throwing motion, vision, pocket presence, etc. Those are the areas where we'll need to see some pretty serious strides to justify the contract he's looking for. And those are the areas where he did not show much growth last season.

 

[MHSL82]

If we are going by yards, TD/INT ratio, passes per touchdown, wins, rushing, etc., both Kaepernick and Smith in this offense than Stafford, Sanchez, and Manning. Both of our QBs have been throwing much less often than Stafford and Manning. Kaepernick has more upside and physical talent than all of them. This is not to build up either QB, but rather to show what these QBs produce is not what their contract suggests.

 

[AngryNiner]

I hesitate to speak for him, but I think the point that AngryNiner is making is that Sanchez was grossly overpaid. He doesn't want the Niners to repeat that mistake.

This all depends upon how you view Kap. If you think he's a franchise guy, you give him $18 million and think you got off lucky. If you don't think he's a franchise guy, or aren't sure, then you run the risk of handcuffing the franchise to mediocrity.

I don't question Kap's work ethic, but I do wonder if he's working on the right things. Last offseason he (seemingly) spent a lot of time working on his strength and speed. That's not what he needs to improve. He's already in the top two or three QBs in the league in those areas. He just needs to more or less maintain his current level. He needs to improve his footwork, throwing motion, vision, pocket presence, etc. Those are the areas where we'll need to see some pretty serious strides to justify the contract he's looking for. And those are the areas where he did not show much growth last season.

I think he knows but chooses to ignore this.

Thanks to ray and imac for posting those articles. I did read them and its is good to hear that he makes an effort to be the first one there. I dont question his drive or work ethic, never have, but again as Crimson is saying, I think he might be focusing on the wrong stuff. Strength and conditioning is in my opinion not as important, in Kaeps case, as foot work and throwing motion and getting better at those things. There is plenty of things said about him being a gym rat but not a lot about the nuances of being an NFL QB that you pay franchise money to.

Sure, Stafford throws the ball more but that should tell you that the team is trusting Stafford with more responsibility. The offense in detroit goes through the air, Largely because Stafford is is capable of much more then Kaep in the passing game. While Stafford has Megatron, he really doesnt have anybody else. This Kaep has no weapons around him is crazy talk, he has more to work with then Stafford. yet the 49ers coaching staff would rather run the offense through gore and ball control.

Kaep had 10 games with under 200 yards passing. One of those games he had a whopping total of 91 yards. In a pass first league!
Stafford had only one game under 200 yards passing. You want to say that its because Stafford passes the ball more, but how can you justify giving 18 mil per to a guy that more often then not throws sub 200 yards per game.

Eli had an awful year Im not gunna argue but he has a body of work Kaep simply doesnt.

I have been critical of Stafford in the general boards so I am well aware his game has flaws but I can certainly see the argument that he could deserve top money giving the type of stats he has put up. You know i am talking about the 2011 season when he put up 5,038 yards 41 TDs 16 INTs
Put Kaeps career stats up against that season and tell me how Kaep is better deserving of that money.
And i'm not trying to poopoo your stats but that ypa. stat is a crapshoot. At least when I called for stats you delivered, tip my hat to you on that.

Pretty clear we will agree to disagree, or at least I will.

 

[imac_21]

I think he knows but chooses to ignore this.

Thanks to ray and imac for posting those articles. I did read them and its is good to hear that he makes an effort to be the first one there. I dont question his drive or work ethic, never have, but again as Crimson is saying, I think he might be focusing on the wrong stuff. Strength and conditioning is in my opinion not as important, in Kaeps case, as foot work and throwing motion and getting better at those things. There is plenty of things said about him being a gym rat but not a lot about the nuances of being an NFL QB that you pay franchise money to.

Sure, Stafford throws the ball more but that should tell you that the team is trusting Stafford with more responsibility. The offense in detroit goes through the air, Largely because Stafford is is capable of much more then Kaep in the passing game. While Stafford has Megatron, he really doesnt have anybody else. This Kaep has no weapons around him is crazy talk, he has more to work with then Stafford. yet the 49ers coaching staff would rather run the offense through gore and ball control.

Kaep had 10 games with under 200 yards passing. One of those games he had a whopping total of 91 yards. In a pass first league!
Stafford had only one game under 200 yards passing. You want to say that its because Stafford passes the ball more, but how can you justify giving 18 mil per to a guy that more often then not throws sub 200 yards per game.

Eli had an awful year Im not gunna argue but he has a body of work Kaep simply doesnt.

I have been critical of Stafford in the general boards so I am well aware his game has flaws but I can certainly see the argument that he could deserve top money giving the type of stats he has put up. You know i am talking about the 2011 season when he put up 5,038 yards 41 TDs 16 INTs
Put Kaeps career stats up against that season and tell me how Kaep is better deserving of that money.
And i'm not trying to poopoo your stats but that ypa. stat is a crapshoot. At least when I called for stats you delivered, tip my hat to you on that.

Pretty clear we will agree to disagree, or at least I will.

Staford throwing more means he's trusted more? Maybe it means he doesn't have Frank Gore and the best run blocking OL in the league? Maybe it means he has Calvin Johnson and can just throw the ball in the direction of 81. Stafford's 5000 yard season still saw less ypa than Kaepernick had this year. He also had a higher int% in 2011 than Kap had last year. But that was 2011 for Stafford, He signed the extension in 2013. You're arguing here that Kap doesn't deserve to be paid because he regressed last year. Stafford regressed in nearly every year from 2011 to 2012 and got his fat extension. Stafford got paid off of 2011 and nothing else. You say he deserves it. You say Kap doesn't deserve it for a season that is on par with Stafford on a per-play basis.

Putting Kap's career stats against Stafford's 2011 season I see a better ypa for Kap (7.9 vs 7.6), I see a better INT% for Kap (1.7 vs 2.4% for Stafford) more yards (5046 for Kap vs 5038 for Stafford) on LESS attempts (639 for Kap vs 663 for Stafford) and a better QBR (75.6 vs 64.4). Stafford has more completions, a better comp%, more TDs and a better passer rating.


When including running the football, Kaepernick has 40 total TDs in his career vs 41 for Stafford in 2011.

This is a pass first league, but we aren't a pass first team. In the games Kap threw for less than 200 yards last year he threw the ball more than 30 times once. In 2011 Stafford threw the ball less than 30 times twice. Stafford threw the ball 40+ times in 8 games, 50+ in 4 and threw it 63 times once. His 91 yard passing game had now Crabtree and no Vernon Davis. Against one of the best defenses in the league.

Once Crabtree came back Kaepernick threw for less than 200 yards twice. Once against Seattle, once against Atlanta (where he had 9.03 ypa). Against Seattle he threw for 175 yards. They gave up 172 yards passing per game last season.

Maybe you should have compared Kaepernick's career to Stafford's 2011 first. It kind of indicates Kapernick deserves Stafford money.

What if we compare Stafford's career running the ball to Kap's 2013? Stafford has 118 carries for 392 yards (3.3 ypc), 9 TDs 36 first downs and 14 fumbles.Kap had 92 carries for 524 yards (5.7 ypc), 4 TDs, 28 first downs and 3 fumbles.

I understand you don't want to continue this. You're put yourself in a situation where you're arguing Stafford and Manning deserve huge contracts, but a QB who has been statistically similar does not. I wouldn't want to compare Eli statistically to Kap if I were arguing against Kaepernick either. Context can be a bitch.

 

[whysies]

Kap had a statisticslly similar year to Stafford's?

Talk about lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Look, stats schmats. Wins schmins. Fuck that. Just look at the guy's QB play. The stuff Crimson alluded to. He struggles to (or refuses to) read a defense and locks on to receivers. His pocket awareness is terrible. He doesn't have much awareness of the game/play clock either. He frequently lacks touch on his throws.

On the flip side he does a pretty good job of ball security (although I think he got pretty lucky with dropped INTs, especially in the playoffs). He has great physical tools and can make plays most other humans can't. He has very good running ability which helps supplement some of his deficiencies as a QB. He still has a lot of room to grow.

I don't think he's awful. To me, if you look at the total package he's an average QB. I don't think he deserves to be paid like an elite QB which seems to be what he's going to get. IMO if you pay him that much that's largely based on potential and I hope he takes more than a few steps up to reach that potential. It's really scary to me to throw a bunch of money and tie the franchise's future to a guy who hasn't even proven that he can consistently go through his progressions or read an NFL defense. Hopefully it all works out.

 

[imac_21]

Kap had a statisticslly similar year to Stafford's?

Talk about lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Look, stats schmats. Wins schmins. Fuck that. Just look at the guy's QB play. The stuff Crimson alluded to. He struggles to (or refuses to) read a defense and locks on to receivers. His pocket awareness is terrible. He doesn't have much awareness of the game/play clock either. He frequently lacks touch on his throws.

On the flip side he does a pretty good job of ball security (although I think he got pretty lucky with dropped INTs, especially in the playoffs). He has great physical tools and can make plays most other humans can't. He has very good running ability which helps supplement some of his deficiencies as a QB. He still has a lot of room to grow.

I don't think he's awful. To me, if you look at the total package he's an average QB. I don't think he deserves to be paid like an elite QB which seems to be what he's going to get. IMO if you pay him that much that's largely based on potential and I hope he takes more than a few steps up to reach that potential. It's really scary to me to throw a bunch of money and tie the franchise's future to a guy who hasn't even proven that he can consistently go through his progressions or read an NFL defense. Hopefully it all works out.

Actually, I was asked to compare Kaep's career to Stafford's 2011. It turns out that in his career Kap has thrown almost the exact same number of passes Stafford threw that year.

However, if you look at a per-pass basis, the numbers favour Kap in a lot of categories.

Stafford also has a problem with locking onto 1 target. He just has the advantage of Calvin Johnson being the target.

It's been said repeatedly that the clock issues are as much or more on the coaching staff than the QB. I think that's a credible statement given that Alex Smith didn't have issues with getting plays off under Nolan or Singletary, but then it became a big issue with Harbaugh.

Here's the problem with deciding not to give him the money this year, which has been created by the new CBA (this will be a problem for all teams using QBs not drafted in the top 15 picks):
These guys can only be signed for 4 years. If they don't start as rookies, you have to make your decision based on 2 seasons as a starter or risk losing him in FA. Why would Kap agree to an extension that underpays him (and regardless of how you feel about him, NFL economics dictate 15 or 16M per year is underpaid. The Niners are not in a situation where they can make up their own market for their QB. Sure we can franchise him next year if he takes the step you guys apparently require from him (turning into the best of Randall Cunningham, Joe Montana and Dan Marino), but that doesn't mean anything because if he gets franchised, we still risk losing him. I wonder how the other players on the team would respond to the front office failing to take care of the QB?

I've also outlined, in this thread, a contract that would pay Kap 20M per year that is very manageable for the team. I could probably do another one that was even more manageable if I felt like it. But at this point I don't think it's worth it. It seems like the posters here have decided that since Kaepernick isn't Aaron Rodgers he's not worth any sort of extension in line with what quality QBs are getting in the current economic climate of the NFL.

I would greatly appreciate it if anyone could show me how signing Kaep to a long term extension would cause the rest of the team to fall apart. At least I've gone through the steps of showing how he could sign a 5 year/100M contract without crippling the team.

 

[whysies]

I'm not talking about just playclock issues but gameclock issues too. Not knowing when you just CAN'T take a delay of game penalty/timeout, running out of bounds when you should stay in and vice versa, etc.

I think one way it could cripple the team is we get saddled to a mediocre QB who gets paid like a top 5 QB. If we are going to have a mediocre QB I would much rather have a mediocre QB+ extra defensive help (or whatever) than a mediocre QB who is vastly overpaid. In the latter situation, the team would be hurting.

 

[imac_21]

I'm not talking about just playclock issues but gameclock issues too. Not knowing when you just CAN'T take a delay of game penalty/timeout, running out of bounds when you should stay in and vice versa, etc.

I think one way it could cripple the team is we get saddled to a mediocre QB who gets paid like a top 5 QB. If we are going to have a mediocre QB I would much rather have a mediocre QB+ extra defensive help (or whatever) than a mediocre QB who is vastly overpaid. In the latter situation, the team would be hurting.

But what FAs are we not going to be able to sign? Most of our main guys are already under contract for awhile.

And nothing about Kaepernick's play has suggested "mediocre." As I said in an earlier post, on a per play basis Kap's 2013 is a top 3 season for Stafford or Eli. Somehow those guys are worth the big contracts, but Kap isn't?

It's also not as if teams aren't constantly structuring contracts so that they're easy to get out of as well. If Kap doesn't play well, he can be replaced. I'd rather cut him and know we have to start over than lose him to FA and be surprised at the prospect of starting over. I'd hate to have this defense waste away with Ken Dorsey at QB.

 

[-AC-]

San Francisco 49ers: Grading Colin Kaepernick's First Full Season

I thought this thread would be the most appropriate place for this article...

 

[AngryNiner]

Staford throwing more means he's trusted more? Maybe it means he doesn't have Frank Gore and the best run blocking OL in the league? Maybe it means he has Calvin Johnson and can just throw the ball in the direction of 81. Stafford's 5000 yard season still saw less ypa than Kaepernick had this year. He also had a higher int% in 2011 than Kap had last year. But that was 2011 for Stafford, He signed the extension in 2013. You're arguing here that Kap doesn't deserve to be paid because he regressed last year. Stafford regressed in nearly every year from 2011 to 2012 and got his fat extension. Stafford got paid off of 2011 and nothing else. You say he deserves it. You say Kap doesn't deserve it for a season that is on par with Stafford on a per-play basis.

Putting Kap's career stats against Stafford's 2011 season I see a better ypa for Kap (7.9 vs 7.6), I see a better INT% for Kap (1.7 vs 2.4% for Stafford) more yards (5046 for Kap vs 5038 for Stafford) on LESS attempts (639 for Kap vs 663 for Stafford) and a better QBR (75.6 vs 64.4). Stafford has more completions, a better comp%, more TDs and a better passer rating.


When including running the football, Kaepernick has 40 total TDs in his career vs 41 for Stafford in 2011.

This is a pass first league, but we aren't a pass first team. In the games Kap threw for less than 200 yards last year he threw the ball more than 30 times once. In 2011 Stafford threw the ball less than 30 times twice. Stafford threw the ball 40+ times in 8 games, 50+ in 4 and threw it 63 times once. His 91 yard passing game had now Crabtree and no Vernon Davis. Against one of the best defenses in the league.

Once Crabtree came back Kaepernick threw for less than 200 yards twice. Once against Seattle, once against Atlanta (where he had 9.03 ypa). Against Seattle he threw for 175 yards. They gave up 172 yards passing per game last season.

Maybe you should have compared Kaepernick's career to Stafford's 2011 first. It kind of indicates Kapernick deserves Stafford money.

What if we compare Stafford's career running the ball to Kap's 2013? Stafford has 118 carries for 392 yards (3.3 ypc), 9 TDs 36 first downs and 14 fumbles.Kap had 92 carries for 524 yards (5.7 ypc), 4 TDs, 28 first downs and 3 fumbles.

I understand you don't want to continue this. You're put yourself in a situation where you're arguing Stafford and Manning deserve huge contracts, but a QB who has been statistically similar does not. I wouldn't want to compare Eli statistically to Kap if I were arguing against Kaepernick either. Context can be a bitch.

Before Crabtree came back he had Bolden and Davis. Yep, just a couple of slouches. If he cant get it done as a passer with those two weapons how is he deserving of top money? The argument we are having, taking into context the thread we are in, Is Kaep worth franchise qb money? Is he worth 16 - 20 million per year? The answer should be pretty obvious given the stats he put up. Kaeps stats this year: 58.4 cmp% 3,197 yards 21TDs 8INTs. 18 mil per year? Really?
You bring ypa like it is the god stat. Sorry, its not. Kaep cant even check the ball down, but you're right, all things equal his play stands up to theirs. If you really believe that you are blind.

The point that I was making, Not that it matters you will just avoid it again, It takes Kaepernick a season and a half to do something it took Stafford to do in one. Kaep had 8 whopping yards more. While Stafford had 10 more TDs and a higher cmp%
Everything equal do you really believe that Kaep puts up the same numbers as Stafford? 91 yards dude. 91 yards. How is that even possible? A high school qb could do as much. Lets give him 18 mil per.
The pass first league thing i was alluding to is the fact that league rules favor the passing game yet he still only put up 91 yards.

Running stats for a qb? please.

Still waiting on those stats to show how he has improved. Still not coming are they? Because there are none to be had. However, you claim he has improved. I guess stats aren't everything.

I want to end the argument because I am worn out on the topic. Not because your ypa stats have blown my mind. But if it makes you feel better to believe this, have at it.

 

[-AC-]

Speaking of stats,

Tom Brady didn't have over a 90 passer rating until his 4th full season and didn't go over 4000 yards passing for a season until his 5th full season...

Peyton Manning threw 43 Int's his first two seasons...

Drew Brees' first 28 starts yeilded a 58% comp percent and a 28/31 TD/Int ratio...

Ben Roethlesberger averaged less than 3000 passing yards his first five seasons, and didn't hit the 4000 mark until his sixth season...

 

[badazzk9]

Speaking of stats,

Tom Brady didn't have over a 90 passer rating until his 4th full season and didn't go over 4000 yards passing for a season until his 5th full season...

Peyton Manning threw 43 Int's his first two seasons...

Drew Brees' first 28 starts yeilded a 58% comp percent and a 28/31 TD/Int ratio...

Ben Roethlesberger averaged less than 3000 passing yards his first five seasons, and didn't hit the 4000 mark until his sixth season...

All these QBs started on sub .500 teams, turned their teams around and brought home a Superbowl ring. Also showed significant improvement under contract.

 

[erckm510]

Before Crabtree came back he had Bolden and Davis. Yep, just a couple of slouches. If he cant get it done as a passer with those two weapons how is he deserving of top money? The argument we are having, taking into context the thread we are in, Is Kaep worth franchise qb money? Is he worth 16 - 20 million per year? The answer should be pretty obvious given the stats he put up. Kaeps stats this year: 58.4 cmp% 3,197 yards 21TDs 8INTs. 18 mil per year? Really?
You bring ypa like it is the god stat. Sorry, its not. Kaep cant even check the ball down, but you're right, all things equal his play stands up to theirs. If you really believe that you are blind.

The point that I was making, Not that it matters you will just avoid it again, It takes Kaepernick a season and a half to do something it took Stafford to do in one. Kaep had 8 whopping yards more. While Stafford had 10 more TDs and a higher cmp%
Everything equal do you really believe that Kaep puts up the same numbers as Stafford? 91 yards dude. 91 yards. How is that even possible? A high school qb could do as much. Lets give him 18 mil per.
The pass first league thing i was alluding to is the fact that league rules favor the passing game yet he still only put up 91 yards.

Running stats for a qb? please.

Still waiting on those stats to show how he has improved. Still not coming are they? Because there are none to be had. However, you claim he has improved. I guess stats aren't everything.

I want to end the argument because I am worn out on the topic. Not because your ypa stats have blown my mind. But if it makes you feel better to believe this, have at it.

I don't know how you can make any passing stat comparison of a player who throws 220 passes more then the next guy without using averages. Then you throw out higher completion %. You do realize Stafford had a 58.5 completion %. That's a whopping difference of .1%. Perhaps Kap's passing numbers would be a lot better throwing to that Calvin guy.

As for the money Kap's stats are better then Cutler's last 2 healthy seasons.

Stats aren't everything but if these are the stats for Kap's ceiling then that's still very good. I guess you think Kap can't improve.

 

[erckm510]

All these QBs started on sub .500 teams, turned their teams around and brought home a Superbowl ring. Also showed significant improvement under contract.

Talk about a super simplistic view.

 

[MHSL82]

What's with all these stats? Just look at abilities, physical talent, mental aptitude, work ethic, decision-making, clutch factor, coachability, etc.

My point? Alex Smith had a better passer rating in 2012 that Kaepernick ever has. His YPA in 2012 was higher than Kaepernick in 2013 (Crabtree in a Boldin-less offense, Boldin in a Crabtree-less offense). His TD/INT ratio was better in two years cumulative. His passes per TD was better. His passes per INT was better in two years of starting. Wins are in Smith's favor in the regular season.

But is anyone saying Alex Smith is better than Kaepernick? No. That's because people are looking at skills, experience, etc. over stats. Was anyone suggesting franchise money for Smith? No. because people were looking at beyond these stats.

There are some stats that support Kaepernick, like presumably third down conversions, maybe red zone (maybe not) etc., but that's not the point (because these weren't mentioned in this thread in comparing Stafford/Sanchez with Kaepernick). Stats aren't as important as abilities, of which Kaepernick shows, with the need of consistency and some work, but is there.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Actually, I was asked to compare Kaep's career to Stafford's 2011. It turns out that in his career Kap has thrown almost the exact same number of passes Stafford threw that year.

However, if you look at a per-pass basis, the numbers favour Kap in a lot of categories.

Stafford also has a problem with locking onto 1 target. He just has the advantage of Calvin Johnson being the target.

It's been said repeatedly that the clock issues are as much or more on the coaching staff than the QB. I think that's a credible statement given that Alex Smith didn't have issues with getting plays off under Nolan or Singletary, but then it became a big issue with Harbaugh.

Here's the problem with deciding not to give him the money this year, which has been created by the new CBA (this will be a problem for all teams using QBs not drafted in the top 15 picks):
These guys can only be signed for 4 years. If they don't start as rookies, you have to make your decision based on 2 seasons as a starter or risk losing him in FA. Why would Kap agree to an extension that underpays him (and regardless of how you feel about him, NFL economics dictate 15 or 16M per year is underpaid. The Niners are not in a situation where they can make up their own market for their QB. Sure we can franchise him next year if he takes the step you guys apparently require from him (turning into the best of Randall Cunningham, Joe Montana and Dan Marino), but that doesn't mean anything because if he gets franchised, we still risk losing him. I wonder how the other players on the team would respond to the front office failing to take care of the QB?

I've also outlined, in this thread, a contract that would pay Kap 20M per year that is very manageable for the team. I could probably do another one that was even more manageable if I felt like it. But at this point I don't think it's worth it. It seems like the posters here have decided that since Kaepernick isn't Aaron Rodgers he's not worth any sort of extension in line with what quality QBs are getting in the current economic climate of the NFL.

I would greatly appreciate it if anyone could show me how signing Kaep to a long term extension would cause the rest of the team to fall apart. At least I've gone through the steps of showing how he could sign a 5 year/100M contract without crippling the team.

To secure an extension a year earlier than he otherwise would. He could bank $30 million this year with a hefty signing bonus and salary increase, or he can play on a one-year contract that pays him $1 million and risk losing everything - granted a career-ending injury is highly unlikely.

I'm not vehemently opposed to paying Kap big money. He is likely to get it at some point unless he falls apart next year. But the other QBs who have signed huge extensions recently were either high first round picks or going into FA. As such, they either had considerable leverage, or the extensions didn't signify a dramatic increase from what was already allotted to the QB position.

Sigining Kap to $20 million/year isn't going to cripple the team, but it will undoubtedly weaken the team. He will have to be successful without the same caliber of talent around him. I sure as hell hope he can do it.

 

[badazzk9]

Talk about a super simplistic view.

Posting up stats like that deserve that response. Stats are for baseball use the eyeball test for football.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

But what FAs are we not going to be able to sign? Most of our main guys are already under contract for awhile.

And nothing about Kaepernick's play has suggested "mediocre." As I said in an earlier post, on a per play basis Kap's 2013 is a top 3 season for Stafford or Eli. Somehow those guys are worth the big contracts, but Kap isn't?

It's also not as if teams aren't constantly structuring contracts so that they're easy to get out of as well. If Kap doesn't play well, he can be replaced. I'd rather cut him and know we have to start over than lose him to FA and be surprised at the prospect of starting over. I'd hate to have this defense waste away with Ken Dorsey at QB.

The Niners will almost certainly lose either Iupati or Crabtree, and very possibly both. Presumably they will hold onto Aldon, but that will cost them at other positions as well.

As for Kap's play, I think he is mediocre as a passer. Frankly, I think Stafford is overpaid. He's a mediocre QB; a physically talented guy who plays with a transcendent player but hasn't come close to getting it down. Eli has defined inconsistent throughout his career, but he's proven he can come through in the clutch. Without his SB victories, no one would view him as an elite QB.

I'm not saying we shouldn't pay Kap, but I'd negotiate the hell out of a deal that's either in the area of $15-16 million/year, or make damn sure we can get out of it in two or three years.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Re: the Stafford comparison, it must be noted that he faces a lot more seven-man boxes. Every D he faces defends the pass first. It's the opposite for the Niners. Not saying he's better than Kap, but just comparing YPA isn't really fair when the Niners face a lot more passing-friendly defensive schemes and can run play action very effectively given the success/persistence of the run.