Geno Staying put

[flyerhawk]

I went on record as saying 20 million plus incentives so not sure why you bring up 10 million and incentives. What I propose gives the Seahawks some protection if Geno plays badly while allowing Geno to be paid well if he preforms. Seems like a win win to me. No need to follow failed contracts for medicare QBs given out around the league. 20 million and incentives that is where I would draw the line.

I was saying you think that they would offer a contract that had 10 million+ in incentives beyond whatever was guaranteed.

The problem is that the incentives will count against the cap either way assuming they are likely to be achieved incentives. So even if the entire contract was incentive based for 2023 it would ALL count against the cap and can't be amortized over the life of the contract.

He's getting more than 20 million AAV.

 

[flyerhawk]

TBH I don't care how other teams value Geno, I care about the Seahawks being smart here and not over paying for Geno and I certainly feel giving Geno a 45 million signing bonus is over paying.

Signing bonuses are more cap friendly. Giving Geno 45 million up front on a 4 year contract means a 11 million dollar cap hit for 2023. Furthermore, more upfront money means a lower AAV contract.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I was saying you think that they would offer a contract that had 10 million+ in incentives beyond whatever was guaranteed.

The problem is that the incentives will count against the cap either way assuming they are likely to be achieved incentives. So even if the entire contract was incentive based for 2023 it would ALL count against the cap and can't be amortized over the life of the contract.

He's getting more than 20 million AAV.

If he earns the incentives than fine, I say that assuming earning the incentives would benefit the Seahawks.

 

[flyerhawk]

If he earns the incentives than fine, I say that assuming earning the incentives would benefit the Seahawks.

But those incentives don't actually help improve the Seahawks. In fact, they HURT the Seahawks because they have to commit those incentives to the cap for THIS season.

 

[JMR]

But those incentives don't actually help improve the Seahawks. In fact, they HURT the Seahawks because they have to commit those incentives to the cap for THIS season.

You are wasting your time.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Signing bonuses are more cap friendly. Giving Geno 45 million up front on a 4 year contract means a 11 million dollar cap hit for 2023. Furthermore, more upfront money means a lower AAV contract.

Yes I'm aware that signing bonuses are more cap friendly, it also means if he's cut after two years the Seahawks end up with a large amount of dead money and best to avoid that.

 

[flyerhawk]

Yes I'm aware that signing bonuses are more cap friendly, it also means if he's cut after two years the Seahawks end up with a large amount of dead money and best to avoid that.

Teams deal with this sort of thing ALL THE TIME.

Seems like you are just being stubborn about this at this point. You'd rather the team hurt itself cap wise this year just to not give Geno the contract is almost certainly going to get.

Is it because you want to draft a QB that badly?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

But those incentives don't actually help improve the Seahawks. In fact, they HURT the Seahawks because they have to commit those incentives to the cap for THIS season.

Think your mistaken. See this:

Geno Smith Contract, Salary, Bonuses, and Net Worth

What is the situation with Geno Smith's contract and salary, what could he earn this offseason, and what is his net worth?

www.profootballnetwork.com

Combined, the incentives in Smith’s contract totaled another $3.50 million, and Smith hit all of them in 2022, meaning his final contract value was $7 million for the season. Only $3.50 million counted against the Seahawks’ salary cap in 2022, as none of the incentives were considered likely to be earned. Therefore, the Seahawks will have Smith count $3.5 million against their salary cap next season, whether he is on the team or not.

 

[flyerhawk]

Think your mistaken. See this:

Geno Smith Contract, Salary, Bonuses, and Net Worth

What is the situation with Geno Smith's contract and salary, what could he earn this offseason, and what is his net worth?

www.profootballnetwork.com

Combined, the incentives in Smith’s contract totaled another $3.50 million, and Smith hit all of them in 2022, meaning his final contract value was $7 million for the season. Only $3.50 million counted against the Seahawks’ salary cap in 2022, as none of the incentives were considered likely to be earned. Therefore, the Seahawks will have Smith count $3.5 million against their salary cap next season, whether he is on the team or not.

Yes. For lower priced contracts there are incentives. Well there incentives in all contracts. But the incentives for starting QBs are closer to rounding numbers than meaningful. Given that Geno had no history of achieving any of his incentives they were all considered unlikely to be earned. So that cap hit got pushed to this year.

Geno was in an open competition for a starting gig. He took a pretty low contract with good incentives based on an assumption he would get the job. Now he's done it.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Yes. For lower priced contracts there are incentives. Well there incentives in all contracts. But the incentives for starting QBs are closer to rounding numbers than meaningful. Given that Geno had no history of achieving any of his incentives they were all considered unlikely to be earned. So that cap hit got pushed to this year.

Geno was in an open competition for a starting gig. He took a pretty low contract with good incentives based on an assumption he would get the job. Now he's done it.

20 million and the same incentives only they'll have a larger dollar amount. That should be the line.

 

[wilwhite]

Non-rookie-deal QBs contract AAV (only guys who started the season):
Rodgers $50M
Wilson $49M
Murray $46M
Watson $46M
Mahomes $45M
Allen $43M
Carr $40M
Prescott $40M
Stafford $40M
Cousins $35M
Goff $34M
Wentz $32M
Ryan $30M
Tannehill $30M
Brady $15M
Winston $14M
Mariota $9M
Trubisky $7M
Brissett $5M

I'd say Geno is less highly valued now than (at the time the contract was signed) everyone except those below Brady... and Wentz (wtf, wft).

That vast stretch between Winston's $14M AAV and Tannehill's $30M AAV is where Geno should land. (Anyone getting close to the high end of that range is getting a bad deal IMO.)

 

[JMR]

Non-rookie-deal QBs contract AAV (only guys who started the season):
Rodgers $50M
Wilson $49M
Murray $46M
Watson $46M
Mahomes $45M
Allen $43M
Carr $40M
Prescott $40M
Stafford $40M
Cousins $35M
Goff $34M
Wentz $32M
Ryan $30M
Tannehill $30M
Brady $15M
Winston $14M
Mariota $9M
Trubisky $7M
Brissett $5M

I'd say Geno is less highly valued now than (at the time the contract was signed) everyone except those below Brady... and Wentz (wtf, wft).

That vast stretch between Winston's $14M AAV and Tannehill's $30M AAV is where Geno should land. (Anyone getting close to the high end of that range is getting a bad deal IMO.)

But recency matters. Fresher contracts tend to be more expensive, even for players of similar ability/age/etc. The QB market resets every time one of the top guys gets a new deal. And AAV is one thing, but the structure of the deal is way important when trying to understand the true cap ramifications.

 

[VikingFan2k2]

Perhaps I can help.

If you think that bringing your team to a one-and-done is the best that Geno can do. You let him walk and take the 24' comp pick.

This is a bit like the Vikings constantly kicking the can down the road on Kirk Cousins. He keeps getting extended and keeps having us over a barrel with his cap number. Always pretty good, but never good enough to get the team over the top.

I don't think I'm stretching when I say Kirk is better than Geno. Yet at least half of the Vikings fan base has a problem with him. Not because of him, more because of his anchor of a contract that won't let us improve the defense.

If you think Geno can take you further than Kirk has taken us, you should pay him.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Perhaps I can help.

If you think that bringing your team to a one-and-done is the best that Geno can do. You let him walk and take the 24' comp pick.

This is a bit like the Vikings constantly kicking the can down the road on Kirk Cousins. He keeps getting extended and keeps having us over a barrel with his cap number. Always pretty good, but never good enough to get the team over the top.

I don't think I'm stretching when I say Kirk is better than Geno. Yet at least half of the Vikings fan base has a problem with him. Not because of him, more because of his anchor of a contract that won't let us improve the defense.

If you think Geno can take you further than Kirk has taken us, you should pay him.

Geno surprised us this year, he did well, but he’s kinda fools gold and while he’s decent when he’s on schedule, when things break down he makes mistakes… That’s my fear to be locked into some huge contract with an average QB, it hurts the team overall..

 

[VikingFan2k2]

@boogiewithstu2007 You got me. I don't even remember that first post. I must have been drinking. My point stands though.

 

[blstoker]

You would say the same thing if I said a 30 million dollar signing bonus. Probably 20 million. You don't want Geno. You want to roll the dice with the draft.

Deshaun Watson got 230,000,000 guaranteed.
Kyler Murray got 103,000,000 guaranteed
Josh Allen got 100,000,000 guaranteed
Ryan Tannehill got 62,000,000 guaranteed

The notion that 45 million "crazy talk" completely ignores the reality of the NFL.

Watson - 26
Murray - 25
Allen - 25

Really, only Tannehill is even slightly comparable - and that isn't a contract I would want to give Geno. Not only do I hate teams putting dead money on the back of contracts where they are taking cap room without providing value but in exchange for 1 or 2 cheap years there's at least one really expensive year that the team can't afford to be rid of him - no matter how he performs.

 

[JMR]

Perhaps I can help.

If you think that bringing your team to a one-and-done is the best that Geno can do. You let him walk and take the 24' comp pick.

This is a bit like the Vikings constantly kicking the can down the road on Kirk Cousins. He keeps getting extended and keeps having us over a barrel with his cap number. Always pretty good, but never good enough to get the team over the top.

I don't think I'm stretching when I say Kirk is better than Geno. Yet at least half of the Vikings fan base has a problem with him. Not because of him, more because of his anchor of a contract that won't let us improve the defense.

If you think Geno can take you further than Kirk has taken us, you should pay him.

Yeah, I don't know. How far a QB will take a team largely depends on how good the team around him is. I've seen oodles of less than top quality QBs play in a SB because their team was great. It is tougher to build a high quality roster around a QB that is making top dollar, but I don't think there is much danger of paying Geno like a top 5 QB and I certainly wouldn't advocate for that. But I also feel it shouldn't be too hard to give Geno a decent payday with some up front money that he hasn't seen yet in his career while also not crippling the cap situation. What I also don't want to see is quibbling at the negotiating table over a couple million bucks, letting Geno walk, and then creating another problem that needs to be addressed this offseason. The team has a golden opportunity with the 1.5 to send big help to the weakest area of the team (front 7), but fixing the D matters quite a bit less if we have no QB. Maybe someone like Jacoby Brissett can come in and play just as good as Geno did, but that's a gamble. We already have a guy who the coaches were confident would play well, then he did, and holding that continuity might have some value in the eyes of the front office. A bird in the hand and whatnot. I guess we'll find out.

 

[Screamin12th]

Issue is there are no real journey men QB's out there making say 18-25mill per year most are 30+ or on their first contracts or trying to stay in the NFL.

 

[wilwhite]

Issue is there are no real journey men QB's out there making say 18-25mill per year most are 30+ or on their first contracts or trying to stay in the NFL.

Well, at the end of a rookie contract most QBs either worked out and got big money or the team tried to move on. Almost nobody's value skyrockets in their third contract or later. Geno is such a rare case that it's hard to find a comparison.

Maybe Fitzpatrick's one-year contract with the Jets for 2016.

Jacoby Brissett's QBR is only a shade below Geno's (he's #8 at 59.9 and Geno was tied for #6 with Daniel Jones at 60.8). Brissett is 30 and also a UFA, but won't draw anywhere near the same attention as Geno.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Read this article that discuss Geno and his contract.

Seahawks Draft Blog – Rob Staton

seahawksdraftblog.com

How has this become our reality? How have we gone from the Russell Wilson trade, embracing an opportunity to draft a replacement and potentially benefit from years of cost-effective quarterback play, to having a serious debate about paying Geno Smith a similar salary to the one they shipped to Denver 12 months ago?

Smith had one good season in a journeyman career. It wasn’t even a full season of quality play either. You can make the arguments about why his form tailed off and some are valid points to raise. Yet the truth is he still made errors and could easily have had more turnovers — as noted in a previous article:

I only post that little bit it goes on and makes the concerns I feel we all should have about signing Geno to a big contract.