Geno Staying put

[flyerhawk]

But why and when did Russ decide he wanted out? I think that matters. I think he was bought in until he got the idea that he was going to continue playing in a relatively conservative offense that he didn't particularly care for, even when they brought Waldron on board. It is not too hard to make a case for your A & C not being around until after Russ got the idea that the team was interested in moving him. And why was the team interested in moving him? Well, I think I can argue that they wanted to move him because they felt their system could get "good enough" QB play for a lot less money and also bring back a haul of picks that they needed to remake a deteriorated roster. For PC, I think it's pretty clear that the QB isn't the singular center of gravity for the success of the team.

I honestly don't know why Russ wanted to leave. It's possible that Russ had convinced himself that he was on the same level as Mahomes and was being held back by Pete.

I really don't think the team wanted to move Russ. They tried to do what they could to keep him the year before, including getting him the OC he wanted. But it would seem he still wanted out.

I agree that Pete's system is not as QB focused as, say, the Chiefs. But I don't care what system you are running you either need exceptional talent everywhere or exceptional talent at QB to be a contender.

FTR, I was one of the people saying that the Hawks would probably win 7 or 8 games this past season because I think Pete can make that happen. But I don't think he could win Super Bowls without the aforementioned talent.

I don't think that the QB is a plug and play position, but I think there is also some hubris involved on the part of PC. They undoubtedly place some value on the continuity that Geno would represent, but I also think PC believes he can get more out of players who might not have had their best success somewhere else.

Maybe. Hard to say. Nothing I've heard from him or JS suggests anything other than they plan to bring back Geno.

Are you sure that's why? I mean we knew that at the time -- that he hadn't played much. We knew that and still thought for sure he would be bad. We didn't say, "Well, he hasn't played much so we just don't know." I think we were wrong because we saw him play poorly in other locations where he got half a chance, and we assumed that is also what he would be as a starter here. Maybe we were wrong because we under rated how PC can work with QBs.

But we also saw him play pretty good the year before when Russ was hurt. Not great. But good. He did show that he still isn't the guy to put a team on his back and I think we all agree that is still the case. He still makes a lot of head scratching plays, especially in crunch time. But he's also shown that he is an accurate passer.

I'm ok with re-signing Geno, but I want the team to hold firm on their price. And if Geno won't play ball, then I think there's a path to success with a much cheaper QB who doesn't have a great track record of success, just like Geno didn't a year ago.

I think we all agree with this. The question is, what is the price. I don't think anyone wants him at 40 mill AAV. Some people, otoh, only want him at 10 mill AAV which isn't going to happen. So what is the right number? That 3 year 90 million in the ESPN article is fine by me. Others may disagree.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

The value of a rookie QB is their contract structure. If you sign a player for 30 million per and then tack on 7-8 mill for the rookie that defeats the purpose.

The actual purpose of drafting a rookie QB is to find your QB of the future (hopefully). The contract structure is the frosting , not the cake. Also the contract suggested is for 27.5 per in reality, which is workable, but not ideal. It seems to me that Geno or no Geno your going to need an alternative fairly quickly. I'd be fine with allowing Geno to walk, but to sooth those who are worried about the rookie QBs Geno could be some insurance short term until the Seahawks learn what they have in the rookie.

 

[JMR]

Here is an interesting article on the new salary cap and how 30-35 million per year for a QB doesn't seem as expensive...

New salary cap makes Seahawks' decisions for QB and draft easy

Interesting read but myself personally, I still wouldn't want to pay Geno that kind of money...

We really need to look at contracts in terms of cap % for each individual year. AAV isn't the best mark, and just having the salary amount doesn't tell the whole story either. If we can sign Geno for a ~9% 2023 cap hit and then no greater than 12% for any other year that we actually think he will see, then I think I would be ok with that.

 

[JMR]

I honestly don't know why Russ wanted to leave. It's possible that Russ had convinced himself that he was on the same level as Mahomes and was being held back by Pete.

I think this is pretty close. Russ wanted it to be early 2020 or late 2015 all the time (my theory), and Pete just isn't having that. I bet the 2nd half of 2020 when we turtled on offense almost the whole time was the beginning of the end for Russ wanting to stay for another contract.

I really don't think the team wanted to move Russ. They tried to do what they could to keep him the year before, including getting him the OC he wanted. But it would seem he still wanted out.

I don't know. It's hard not to see this as a chicken and egg situation. Did the team decide to trade Russ because he wanted out, or did Russ decide he wanted out because he thought the team was no longer committed to his talent? They brought in Waldron but the O still seemed to be pretty reserved most of the time.

I agree that Pete's system is not as QB focused as, say, the Chiefs. But I don't care what system you are running you either need exceptional talent everywhere or exceptional talent at QB to be a contender.

I more or less agree. Both are pretty hard to do. It's also quite a paradox -- the exceptional QB part. If they are exceptional enough then you have to pay them a truckload of money that ultimately makes it way more difficult to have enough talent elsewhere to contend. I am probably off a little bit, but the historical QB cap threshold is something like 15%? No team has won a SB with a QB getting more than that. Mahomes is at 17% right now, so maybe he's about to be the 1st.

FTR, I was one of the people saying that the Hawks would probably win 7 or 8 games this past season because I think Pete can make that happen. But I don't think he could win Super Bowls without the aforementioned talent.

Yeah, we need more talent on defense, as most of us recognize. I think it's quite possible to make a SB with the level of QB play we got from Geno this year. I've seen Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Neil O'Donnell, Nick Foles, and Rex Grossman make it.

Maybe. Hard to say. Nothing I've heard from him or JS suggests anything other than they plan to bring back Geno.

I have to think that is their preferred outcome. But I have also heard Pete say things that clearly communicate the confidence he has in their overall approach, implying that QB is just one part of it. I also have to think that Pete believes if it's not with Geno, then he'll find a way to compete just as hard with someone else. This speaks to your point above about Pete being a good enough coach to make it happen.

But we also saw him play pretty good the year before when Russ was hurt. Not great. But good. He did show that he still isn't the guy to put a team on his back and I think we all agree that is still the case. He still makes a lot of head scratching plays, especially in crunch time. But he's also shown that he is an accurate passer.

Did Geno play good in that stretch? Hmmm, I dunno. I think he was "ok" for most of it, but it wasn't good enough to make us think he would do very well as the starter this year. The thing I remember most about Geno's 3 or 4 game stretch was that he made a critical mistake at the end of every close game that we lost. It is a pretty small sample size I guess, but it wasn't until like the latter part of this season when he finally came through at the end of a game for the win.

I think we all agree with this. The question is, what is the price. I don't think anyone wants him at 40 mill AAV. Some people, otoh, only want him at 10 mill AAV which isn't going to happen. So what is the right number? That 3 year 90 million in the ESPN article is fine by me. Others may disagree.

Yeah, I have no clue! I just hope we find out soon, one way or the other.

 

[flyerhawk]

The actual purpose of drafting a rookie QB is to find your QB of the future (hopefully). The contract structure is the frosting , not the cake. Also the contract suggested is for 27.5 per in reality, which is workable, but not ideal. It seems to me that Geno or no Geno your going to need an alternative fairly quickly. I'd be fine with allowing Geno to walk, but to sooth those who are worried about the rookie QBs Geno could be some insurance short term until the Seahawks learn what they have in the rookie.

If you draft a QB in the top 5 they are getting paid about 8 million/year. If you have them sitting on the bench for 3 years that is 24 million of lost cap space. Furthermore, that would mean you only have 2 years to determine if he is a franchise QB or not.

Which is why every top 10 QB becomes a starter as a rookie, unless they get hurt.

 

[flyerhawk]

Possibly... I feel like we're underestimating the QB salary a bit for a starting QB that was selected to the probowl with limited wear and tear on his body compared to other starting QB's his age...

... or, I could be overestimated the QB salary a bit... I personally will be surprised if Geno doesn't land at least 30 million a year from someone...

The Seahawks can offer him a contract where he is guaranteed 3 times more than his lifetime earnings at age 32. Having 50 million in the bank after next year will be a pretty enticing option.

Of he can wait and test the market. Or he could get tagged and only have about 60% of that same amount of money next year.

Taking that 90 million contract, assuming the Hawks offer something like that, seems pretty enticing for Geno.

 

[flyerhawk]

I don't know. It's hard not to see this as a chicken and egg situation. Did the team decide to trade Russ because he wanted out, or did Russ decide he wanted out because he thought the team was no longer committed to his talent? They brought in Waldron but the O still seemed to be pretty reserved most of the time.

There is a certain amount of navel gazing with this as we really don't know the truth and likely won't for many years, if ever.

I more or less agree. Both are pretty hard to do. It's also quite a paradox -- the exceptional QB part. If they are exceptional enough then you have to pay them a truckload of money that ultimately makes it way more difficult to have enough talent elsewhere to contend. I am probably off a little bit, but the historical QB cap threshold is something like 15%? No team has won a SB with a QB getting more than that. Mahomes is at 17% right now, so maybe he's about to be the 1st.

Winning a SB is hard. Mahomes has been in 4 straight AFC championship games and getting paid a ton for 2 of those seasons. Tom Brady always being willing to take a discounted deal kinda screwed all of this up, given he's won 30% of all Super Bowls in the last 20 years.

Yeah, we need more talent on defense, as most of us recognize. I think it's quite possible to make a SB with the level of QB play we got from Geno this year. I've seen Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Neil O'Donnell, Nick Foles, and Rex Grossman make it.

If they could recreate that 2013 Seahawks defense, Geno could win a Super Bowl especially with the talent on O. Of course, easier said than done.

I have to think that is their preferred outcome. But I have also heard Pete say things that clearly communicate the confidence he has in their overall approach, implying that QB is just one part of it. I also have to think that Pete believes if it's not with Geno, then he'll find a way to compete just as hard with someone else. This speaks to your point above about Pete being a good enough coach to make it happen.

Pete won't back the Brinks truck up for Geno. But I think he will give him a pretty good contract, that they can get out of in a couple of years if necessary.

Did Geno play good in that stretch? Hmmm, I dunno. I think he was "ok" for most of it, but it wasn't good enough to make us think he would do very well as the starter this year. The thing I remember most about Geno's 3 or 4 game stretch was that he made a critical mistake at the end of every close game that we lost. It is a pretty small sample size I guess, but it wasn't until like the latter part of this season when he finally came through at the end of a game for the win.

Geno made mistakes. Our defense was mostly atrocious. Our running game disappeared.

Yeah, I have no clue! I just hope we find out soon, one way or the other.

Should be interesting.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

If you draft a QB in the top 5 they are getting paid about 8 million/year. If you have them sitting on the bench for 3 years

First off that contract only keeps Geno here for 2 years. Secondly the rookie could start from day one or midseason or the start of the second season or midseason year 2.

Which is why every top 10 QB becomes a starter as a rookie, unless they get hurt.

Trey Lance, Patrick Mahomes didn't, rather the exception then the rule but not every top 10 QB becomes the starter as a rookie.


I'm not in favor of giving Geno that contract. I'm just arguing that contract doesn't preclude drafting a QB early this draft. Geno is just a bridge QB, Seahawks still need their QB of the future

 

[Anointed One]

We really need to look at contracts in terms of cap % for each individual year. AAV isn't the best mark, and just having the salary amount doesn't tell the whole story either. If we can sign Geno for a ~9% 2023 cap hit and then no greater than 12% for any other year that we actually think he will see, then I think I would be ok with that.

I see that scenerio but the question I now have, is Geno better than Drew Lock? It's hard not to overlook his last 4 or 5 games of the season... At first I thought, it was against divisional rivals and good defenses... But then I wonder, was it also due to the fact that DC's had tape on Geno throughout the year where they were running coverages that were confusing him, etc... Because he was throwing some very stupid INT's during that stretch... Seemed like he was getting sacked more as well or having to throw the ball away more....

 

[flyerhawk]

First off that contract only keeps Geno here for 2 years. Secondly the rookie could start from day one or midseason or the start of the second season or midseason year 2.

Sure. Anything could happen. But you don't usually give someone a 90 million contract unless you except them to start for a couple of seasons.

Trey Lance, Patrick Mahomes didn't, rather the exception then the rule but not every top 10 QB becomes the starter as a rookie.

Mahomes was an exception. Didn't Lance get hurt as a rookie as well?

I'm not in favor of giving Geno that contract. I'm just arguing that contract doesn't preclude drafting a QB early this draft. Geno is just a bridge QB, Seahawks still need their QB of the future

Yes. You prefer we roll the dice at whatever QB lands to us. That is the WORST option, IMO. But to each their own.

 

[flyerhawk]

I see that scenerio but the question I now have, is Geno better than Drew Lock? It's hard not to overlook his last 4 or 5 games of the season... At first I thought, it was against divisional rivals and good defenses... But then I wonder, was it also due to the fact that DC's had tape on Geno throughout the year where they were running coverages that were confusing him, etc... Because he was throwing some very stupid INT's during that stretch... Seemed like he was getting sacked more as well or having to throw the ball away more....

We played better defenses. Our run game disappeared and our OL definitely was very shaky against those defenses.

 

[PolarVortex]

Just saw an interview where Lynch/Shanahan was asked if Garapollo was coming back. Shanahan said no, there is no scenario in which he is returning. So what we all assumed is now unofficially official.

I think the question was asked by Captain Obvious.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

watch the notre dame and michigan games. he was not elite at all, looked totally pedestrian. in the michigan game he tossed an INT to seal the deal, something geno has the tendency to do also.

focusing on one game, his last game, is how teams get fooled into taking players like joey harrington top 5.

I did mention QBs do have clunkers. No QB is perfect and if there is please find me one of those.

 

[JMR]

I see that scenerio but the question I now have, is Geno better than Drew Lock? It's hard not to overlook his last 4 or 5 games of the season... At first I thought, it was against divisional rivals and good defenses... But then I wonder, was it also due to the fact that DC's had tape on Geno throughout the year where they were running coverages that were confusing him, etc... Because he was throwing some very stupid INT's during that stretch... Seemed like he was getting sacked more as well or having to throw the ball away more....

Uh, I think there might be some recency bias going on. Seemed to be 1 bad play in some of those games down the stretch that maybe soured the overall numbers to a degree, but in these games where Geno has been accused of poor play, he still posted passer ratings that were fully acceptable. Also played SF & KC a total of 3 times in the last 5 games. That has to be considered if a fair assessment is the goal. He sucked vs Carolina though, no argument there. If DCs had the formula to make him play poorly, I don't think he would have had such a good 1st half vs SF in the playoffs. His worst game against them was the 1st time they faced him, and there was next to no new film to study then. To me, Geno's mistakes tend to come when we get close or to desperation mode and the O becomes 1 dimensional. Only a handful of QBs in the league aren't described by that, and of course those guys are making tons of money.

 

[JMR]

Just saw an interview where Lynch/Shanahan was asked if Garapollo was coming back. Shanahan said no, there is no scenario in which he is returning. So what we all assumed is now unofficially official.

I think the question was asked by Captain Obvious.

Yeah, that's a foregone conclusion when he's a UFA and you have 2 other QBs under contract: 1 you spent a #3 overall pick on 2 drafts ago, and the other being a rookie who helped you get to the NFCC. The 49ers have some decisions to make at QB, but they don't involve Jimmy G.

 

[MrS]

The ravens are interviewing our QB coach again, seems like its a real possibility he gets the job. If they let jackson walk or trade him, maybe they go after geno

 

[Anointed One]

With Tom Brady retiring, that is one less FA QB off the market...

 

[MrS]

With Tom Brady retiring, that is one less FA QB off the market...

bucs could be a trade target for geno?

 

[Screamin12th]

bucs could be a trade target for geno?

I thought the same thing when i saw Brady retire and i wouldn't say a trade partner at all, they will try to sign him as a Free Agent. Hawks will have to be the Highest bidder as Geno will not sign until he has offers from other teams. It would be extremely STUPID for Geno to sign a contract with out testing the market because a team like the Buc will over pay for him.

I don't think the Hawks will even think about tagging Geno so he will either leave with no return at all for the Seahawks or the Hawks will over pay for him. Lets hope he just leaves because this team can't afford to over pay for a one year wonder on a stacked offense.

 

[MrS]

I thought the same thing when i saw Brady retire and i wouldn't say a trade partner at all, they will try to sign him as a Free Agent. Hawks will have to be the Highest bidder as Geno will not sign until he has offers from other teams. It would be extremely STUPID for Geno to sign a contract with out testing the market because a team like the Buc will over pay for him.

I don't think the Hawks will even think about tagging Geno so he will either leave with no return at all for the Seahawks or the Hawks will over pay for him. Lets hope he just leaves because this team can't afford to over pay for a one year wonder on a stacked offense.

Theyll tag and trade before they let him walk

Is dave canales a "minority"?