A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[SlinkyRedfoot]

True- I was more implying they'd still give out the contract out today

Maybe so, maybe not.

 

[ChiSoxFan]

For comparison, here's Fangraphs' projected standings:

Depth Charts » Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball

78 wins is a pretty generous forecast for the White Sox.

 

[dougplayer]

PECOTA doesnt measure heart, grit, hustle and IQ

thats why the Royals are always predicted to suck

Never heard royals mention in same sentence as heart,grit hustle,and IQ. Maybe that's why they are predicted to suck every year

 

[dougplayer]

How's does LeBron look Kevin love in the face?? After tring to trade him for camelleo?? He will lie and say no way bro. What a liar LeBron is.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Never heard royals mention in same sentence as heart,grit hustle,and IQ. Maybe that's why they are predicted to suck every year

lol

 

[broncosmitty]

I'm not a big fan of WAR, but I'm not sure how else to weigh this. Perez ranked 5th of 8 qualified catchers last year.

Even without WAR, his OPS was 125 points behind Lucroy and Ramos. About 70 points behind Posey and Molina. I'm not sure his defense makes up that large of an offensive disparity.



Also, he's never been anywhere close to being a free agent, so comparing his contract to catchers who either reached free agency or damn close isn't an apples to apples comparison. Perez, with both of his contracts, opted for security rather than top dollar and there's a cost for that.

His contract's AAV ranks 10th all time for catchers.

I'd take Perez over Lucroy without concerning myself with any offensive numbers. Right now and for several years running my opinion has been the same. Unless Perez can't squat or throw, it'll be the same next year too.

Lucroy isn't a good enough hitter to swing a lineup from good to great or bad to good. And he's 30.

Perez should be heading into his big money season right now. But he isn't. (Maybe someone held a gun to his head in some other season, no player should be signing a new deal at 25 to cancel out their old deal. When was that previous deal set to end?)And most likely never will.

Can't see justifying him as a first baseman in the future. He'll be done (as any type of commodity)before he hits the market, for the first time.

 

[broncosmitty]

Never heard royals mention in same sentence as heart,grit hustle,and IQ. Maybe that's why they are predicted to suck every year

Occum's razor.

 

[broncosmitty]

78 wins is a pretty generous forecast for the White Sox.

Thats cuz those are last years standings. Lol

They pegged ya to dip four. Same as Detroit and KC. Stinktown takes a three game hit. Minny, the offseason darlings of the ALC evidently, take all 15 of those Ws for themselves.

ALW gains 8 wins as a group to our net zero.


ALE takes it in the ass. Down 11. (The Rays are on the upswing.)

That's 3 more interleague losses for better of the Leagues. (If my math holds up. I'm doing this from the john.)

 

[ChiSoxFan]

Thats cuz those are last years standings. Lol

They pegged ya to dip four. Same as Detroit and KC. Stinktown takes a three game hit. Minny, the offseason darlings of the ALC evidently, take all 15 of those Ws for themselves.

ALW gains 8 wins as a group to our net zero.


ALE takes it in the ass. Down 11. (The Rays are on the upswing.)

That's 3 more interleague losses for better of the Leagues. (If my math holds up. I'm doing this from the john.)

How embarrassing maybe.

 

[broncosmitty]

How embarrassing maybe.

Maybe si, maybe no?

(That's my go to line at work.)

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I'd take Perez over Lucroy without concerning myself with any offensive numbers. Right now and for several years running my opinion has been the same. Unless Perez can't squat or throw, it'll be the same next year too.

There were three other guys I mentioned in addition to Lucroy. I don't think you're crazy for preferring Perez over Lucroy, but I also don't think Perez is unequivocally the best catcher in the bigs.

Lucroy isn't a good enough hitter to swing a lineup from good to great or bad to good. And he's 30.

Measured by OPS, Lucroy was the 33rd best hitter in MLB last year. MLB average slash line from C in 2016 was .243/.311/.393/.704. Lucroy's was .276/.345/.539/.885. That bat, particularly plugged in at C, is a difference maker.

Perez should be heading into his big money season right now. But he isn't. (Maybe someone held a gun to his head in some other season, no player should be signing a new deal at 25 to cancel out their old deal. When was that previous deal set to end?)And most likely never will.

He signed his first MLB contract for $7MM (w/ escalators) as a 21-year-old Mexican with 39 games under his belt. He assumed as little risk as a major league player can, which is why he's not making top dollar. Evaluating his contract(s) now without considering that doesn't make sense.

Can't see justifying him as a first baseman in the future. He'll be done (as any type of commodity)before he hits the market, for the first time.

Had he not signed his contracts, he'd be an unrestricted FA after this coming season. Had he gone for full risk and top dollar (like Bryce Harper), he'd likely be looking at a much larger contract. On the other hand, he could have blown out his knee and made a fraction of what he's actually made.

Perez and Harper are about the most extreme examples of the security/top dollar approach to player contracts that I can think of. I'm not saying that one is better than the other, just that you have to consider how risk averse Perez' strategy was before you bemoan his contract value.

 

[broncosmitty]

There were three other guys I mentioned in addition to Lucroy. I don't think you're crazy for preferring Perez over Lucroy, but I also don't think Perez is unequivocally the best catcher in the bigs.



Measured by OPS, Lucroy was the 33rd best hitter in MLB last year. MLB average slash line from C in 2016 was .243/.311/.393/.704. Lucroy's was .276/.345/.539/.885. That bat, particularly plugged in at C, is a difference maker.



He signed his first MLB contract for $7MM (w/ escalators) as a 21-year-old Mexican with 39 games under his belt. He assumed as little risk as a major league player can, which is why he's not making top dollar. Evaluating his contract(s) now without considering that doesn't make sense.



Had he not signed his contracts, he'd be an unrestricted FA after this coming season. Had he gone for full risk and top dollar (like Bryce Harper), he'd likely be looking at a much larger contract. On the other hand, he could have blown out his knee and made a fraction of what he's actually made.

Perez and Harper are about the most extreme examples of the security/top dollar approach to player contracts that I can think of. I'm not saying that one is better than the other, just that you have to consider how risk averse Perez' strategy was before you bemoan his contract value.

Evan Longoria did something similar didn't he?

I love the move by the Royals.

Lucroy is no difference maker. He made the playoffs on a team with Brain still juicin and Prince still able to turn his neck. And went 1-12 in the playoffs on a team that was just as good without him last year. Your Indians are lucky he didn't want to be on a much better team.

 

[broncosmitty]

Wilson Ramos isn't worth me mentioning being not in Perez class.

I forget who the third guy was.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Evan Longoria did something similar didn't he?

Yep, a bunch of guys have, just not usually to the extreme that Perez did.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Wilson Ramos isn't worth me mentioning being not in Perez class.

I forget who the third guy was.

Generally speaking, I don't disagree about Ramos. He did have a hell of a season at the plate last year, though.

Posey and Molina.

 

[navamind]

I'd take Perez over Lucroy without concerning myself with any offensive numbers. Right now and for several years running my opinion has been the same. Unless Perez can't squat or throw, it'll be the same next year too.

Lucroy isn't a good enough hitter to swing a lineup from good to great or bad to good. And he's 30.

Perez should be heading into his big money season right now. But he isn't. (Maybe someone held a gun to his head in some other season, no player should be signing a new deal at 25 to cancel out their old deal. When was that previous deal set to end?)And most likely never will.

Can't see justifying him as a first baseman in the future. He'll be done (as any type of commodity)before he hits the market, for the first time.

But that's the thing... few catchers are, and those few rank among the greatest at the position.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Lucroy is no difference maker. He made the playoffs on a team with Brain still juicin and Prince still able to turn his neck. And went 1-12 in the playoffs on a team that was just as good without him last year. Your Indians are lucky he didn't want to be on a much better team.

I'm fine with the fact that the Indians didn't get him, but I'm not one to discredit the fact that in his last three seasons he's slashed .288/.355/.461/.816 just because he's had 44 poor postseason ABs. That's a small sample and sometimes those go bad.

Miguel Cabrera -- who is a much better hitter than Lucroy and has done significant postseason damage -- had a 39 AB postseason stretch where he slashed .179/.289/.333/.622.

I think you'd be hard pressed to find a MLB GM who would agree with you that out of the C slot, Lucroy's bat isn't a difference maker.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

But that's the thing... few catchers are, and those few rank among the greatest at the position.

Right. Contract statuses (stati?) notwithstanding, I think if 30 teams got to pick their catcher for 2017, I think way more would pick Lucroy than Perez. Frankly, with Posey, Lucroy, Molina and others out there, I'm not convinced any would pick Perez.

Obviously, the following articles aren't written by MLB FO personnel, but still worth considering:

CBS ranks Perez 6th
Fox ranks Perez 7th
Game Haus ranks Perez 3rd
A very comprehensive article from Bleacher Report ranks Perez 9th

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Also, pitchers and catchers start reporting in five days. After this post, we need 201 posts to hit 15k. That's an average of 40 posts a day.

Put your work boots on, muthafuckas. Let's put this one to bed, so @dougplayer can smash the proverbial bottle on the hull of our 2017 AL Central thread.

@navamind
@broncosmitty
@ChiSoxFan
@Iffster
@Erie Warrior
@Omar 382
@black francis
@VikingFan2k2
@Voltaire26
@Wamu
@Nosferatu
@BigRedMoe
@There is A Moose at 3rd
@Howie115
@WiggyRuss
@mr.hockey4242
@Across The Field
@craigk217

 

[Nosferatu]