A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[Erie Warrior]

That game sucked. I fell asleep in the 3rd and woke up in OT.

 

[Iffster]

I admit, I give doug a lot of crap about his awful percentage of incorrect predictions. I don't think anyone can deny, however, that he is probably the worst prognosticator that this board has. SO....let's give credit to him getting his Super Bowl pick correct (barely)......

 

[Fountain City Blues]

That game sucked. I fell asleep in the 3rd and woke up in OT.

Yeah, the shitty thing about chokes like that one is it sucks for 90% of the game and leaves you cringing afterwards. The game is such where I can't enjoy the game just because anymore. Still works with baseball for me.

 

[dougplayer]

Chokes? Any other excuses to take away from brady gre as tness??? He is the G.O.A.T.
and still maybe 3 or 4 years left in the tank.

 

[dougplayer]

Still. Nut sack er says. CF is key to whole team. He won't explain why. Just says it is key.

 

[Howie115]

Still. Nut sack er says. CF is key to whole team. He won't explain why. Just says it is key.

Iffy isn't wrong about CF being a concern. But the Tigers can survive a mediocre CF. I'm more concerned about throwing the same crappy bullpen out there that we had in 2016.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

PECOTA giving the Royals a cool and easy 70 wins.

 

[Omar 382]

PECOTA giving the Royals a cool and easy 70 wins.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Through it all I'll still be a Matt Strahm truther

 

[broncosmitty]

I don't know what PECOTA is, but I'd say 72-75.

Depending on when Moose and Hosmer are traded.

Who held a gun to Sal Perez' had last year?

His deal sucks balls.

 

[navamind]

PECOTA giving the Royals a cool and easy 70 wins.

I'm not high on the Royals by any means, but I'm not buying the Twins being better at all, much less the 2nd best team in the division. 77 wins for the ChiSox seems awfully high as well. Even that 72-90 for the O's and 77-85 for the Cards seem kind of absurd.

 

[navamind]

For comparison, here's Fangraphs' projected standings:

Depth Charts » Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I'm not high on the Royals by any means, but I'm not buying the Twins being better at all, much less the 2nd best team in the division. 77 wins for the ChiSox seems awfully high as well. Even that 72-90 for the O's and 77-85 for the Cards seem kind of absurd.

Yeah, PECOTA has a few real headscratchers every year. Last year the Rays (IIRC) were going to win over 90 games and that had all kinds of alarm bells in my view of things. A .500 team seems to be a much more reasonable projection. Like all projections those have room to move of course as trades, breakthroughs, injuries, and breakdowns occur, but .500 is a pretty solid bet.

 

[navamind]

Yeah, PECOTA has a few real headscratchers every year. Last year the Rays (IIRC) were going to win over 90 games and that had all kinds of alarm bells in my view of things. A .500 team seems to be a much more reasonable projection. Like all projections those have room to move of course as trades, breakthroughs, injuries, and breakdowns occur, but .500 is a pretty solid bet.

Also not buying the Cubs being only 2 games better than the Mets.

 

[black francis]

PECOTA giving the Royals a cool and easy 70 wins.

PECOTA has never predicted a winning season for the Royals

 

[Fountain City Blues]

PECOTA has never predicted a winning season for the Royals

Bill PECOTA somewhere weeps

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I don't know what PECOTA is, but I'd say 72-75.

Depending on when Moose and Hosmer are traded.

Who held a gun to Sal Perez' had last year?

His deal sucks balls.

I don't agree.

Prior to this contract, he was already signed through 2019 at $14.8MM. He was coming off two straight below-average seasons and folks were barking about his workload. With three more years on his contract, he'd have been 30-years old when he became a free agent.

His new contract contract gets him at least $52.5MM, that's an increase of $37.7MM in guaranteed money and it eliminates a shit ton of risk.

Sure, he could have gotten more as an unrestricted FA, but he was far from being one of those. Further, he had his third below-average season at the dish last year, so I don't think he'd be able to get that deal from the Royals now.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

PECOTA has never predicted a winning season for the Royals

So they get that right way more often than not.

 

[black francis]

So they get that right way more often than not.

Yep, they do

They haven't been very accurate lately

Was there a 2nd place parade in October this year?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Yep, they do

They haven't been very accurate lately

Was there a 2nd place parade in October this year?

They were right on it last year.

"we've had four winning seasons in the last quarter century. Show us some damn respect!"

lolz.