A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[black francis]

I don't agree.

Prior to this contract, he was already signed through 2019 at $14.8MM. He was coming off two straight below-average seasons and folks were barking about his workload. With three more years on his contract, he'd have been 30-years old when he became a free agent.

His new contract contract gets him at least $52.5MM, that's an increase of $37.7MM in guaranteed money and it eliminates a shit ton of risk.

Sure, he could have gotten more as an unrestricted FA, but he was far from being one of those. Further, he had his third below-average season at the dish last year, so I don't think he'd be able to get that deal from the Royals now.

You're right

He was getting raped until his renegotiation.

His offensive numbers have gotten worse every year of his career. He is basically being paid to be a great defensive catcher and emotional leader.

Once he is forced to move to 1b, he will be horribly overpaid.

 

[black francis]

They were right on it last year.

"we've had four winning seasons in the last quarter century. Show us some damn respect!"

lolz.

also had a winning record in 2013, 2003 and 1994.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

also had a winning record in 2013, 2003 and 1994.

Yeah, that's four.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

What projections were measured?

 

[black francis]

Yeah, that's four.

and 2014, 2015

6 in the last 23 years

one every 4 years.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

What projections were measured?

Fair question- I just wanted to share. Id imagine it's in the corresponding 538 article

 

[black francis]

forgot 1993

 

[black francis]

Fair question- I just wanted to share. Id imagine it's in the corresponding 538 article

PECOTA doesnt measure heart, grit, hustle and IQ

thats why the Royals are always predicted to suck

 

[Fountain City Blues]

PECOTA doesnt measure heart, grit, hustle and IQ

thats why the Royals are always predicted to suck

I think it had more to do with some Hokie projections defensively than anything. Corey Toups is projected to be more valuable than Salvador Perez.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

and 2014, 2015

6 in the last 23 years

one every 4 years.

5 in the last 23 years. Gotta go back 24 years to get that sixth in there.

Regardless, I don't disagree with your point that PECOTA was embarrassingly inaccurate with the Royals during their run. It was just funny to see a Royals fan being all "they never predict a winning season for the Royals" when the Royals rarely have winning seasons. You can understand that, no?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

PECOTA doesnt measure heart, grit, hustle and IQ

thats why the Royals are always predicted to suck

There's clearly something they were missing on the Royals those years. I imagine they've looked into it, trying to figure out what went wrong. It'd be interesting to get BP's take on it.

 

[black francis]

5 in the last 23 years. Gotta go back 24 years to get that sixth in there.

Regardless, I don't disagree with your point that PECOTA was embarrassingly inaccurate with the Royals during their run. It was just funny to see a Royals fan being all "they never predict a winning season for the Royals" when the Royals rarely have winning seasons. You can understand that, no?

Yeah, I get it.

I was thinking it when I typed it, but didnt give enough fucks to change it.

 

[Iffster]

"Someone" asked why I thought that Detroit's shaky CF situation was important. Fair enough.
Detroit cut loose a player with a 2.0 WAR when they declined to pick up Maybin's option. (Fourth highest of Tiger's position players) As the opening salvo of what I thought was a plan for the team to reduce salary and get younger, I did not have qualms about the move, at the time, figuring subsequent moves would find a player to take Maybin's spot. Someone capable of filling at least a good portion of that 2.0 WAR. However there was no plan....so that didn't happen. Now Detroit is left with a "plethora" of bench players and AAA subjects - who won't project positive WARs - to take over in CF. I suppose the offensive-minded Tigers can still overcome the loss of Maybin...afterall he missed almost half the season...and still win about 83-84 games.
However...I've seen potential batting orders for 2017 that have James McCann, Tyler Collins, and "Shins" Iglesias batting in the 7-9 spots. Not exactly something to worry most pitchers.

 

[broncosmitty]

I don't agree.

Prior to this contract, he was already signed through 2019 at $14.8MM. He was coming off two straight below-average seasons and folks were barking about his workload. With three more years on his contract, he'd have been 30-years old when he became a free agent.

His new contract contract gets him at least $52.5MM, that's an increase of $37.7MM in guaranteed money and it eliminates a shit ton of risk.

Sure, he could have gotten more as an unrestricted FA, but he was far from being one of those. Further, he had his third below-average season at the dish last year, so I don't think he'd be able to get that deal from the Royals now.

I guess he got more than originally. But the best catcher in baseball(Posey is the best hitting one, no disrespect intended) is locked up at 25 on a crazy deal, for the Royals. (He's 26 now, 25 when he signed the thing.)

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

But the best catcher in baseball

I'm not a big fan of WAR, but I'm not sure how else to weigh this. Perez ranked 5th of 8 qualified catchers last year.

Even without WAR, his OPS was 125 points behind Lucroy and Ramos. About 70 points behind Posey and Molina. I'm not sure his defense makes up that large of an offensive disparity.

But the best catcher in baseball(Posey is the best hitting one, no disrespect intended) is locked up at 25 on a crazy deal, for the Royals.

Also, he's never been anywhere close to being a free agent, so comparing his contract to catchers who either reached free agency or damn close isn't an apples to apples comparison. Perez, with both of his contracts, opted for security rather than top dollar and there's a cost for that.

His contract's AAV ranks 10th all time for catchers.

 

[Howie115]

Now Detroit is left with a "plethora" of bench players and AAA subjects - who won't project positive WARs - to take over in CF. I suppose the offensive-minded Tigers can still overcome the loss of Maybin...afterall he missed almost half the season...and still win about 83-84 games.
However...I've seen potential batting orders for 2017 that have James McCann, Tyler Collins, and "Shins" Iglesias batting in the 7-9 spots. Not exactly something to worry most pitchers.

Again, no arguments about CF being a weakness. But the 7-9 spots in the batting order are far less of a concern than what we will get for defense in CF, and not as much of a problem as the 1-7 spots in the bullpen.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I'm not a big fan of WAR, but I'm not sure how else to weigh this. Perez ranked 5th of 8 qualified catchers last year.

Even without WAR, his OPS was 125 points behind Lucroy and Ramos. About 70 points behind Posey and Molina. I'm not sure his defense makes up that large of an offensive disparity.



Also, he's never been anywhere close to being a free agent, so comparing his contract to catchers who either reached free agency or damn close isn't an apples to apples comparison. Perez, with both of his contracts, opted for security rather than top dollar and there's a cost for that.

His contract's AAV ranks 10th all time for catchers.

If you start expanding the field for PA's I tend to think it's more clear why the Royals may have rationalized doing a deal: The position is just weak at the MLB level right now. If you go to 300 PA's for instance on fangraphs he is 8th out of 24 in fWAR; and supposedly the Royals think his framing can and will be improved upon. That combined with there being no obvious replacement within the system (Vallot looks good offensively but defensively is eh; Viloria like Vallot is too far down the rabbit hole) and they may have just done it to secure C until further notice. Just an educated guess on why they did it.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

If you start expanding the field for PA's I tend to think it's more clear why the Royals may have rationalized doing a deal: The position is just weak at the MLB level right now. If you go to 300 PA's for instance on fangraphs he is 8th out of 24 in fWAR; and supposedly the Royals think his framing can and will be improved upon. That combined with there being no obvious replacement within the system (Vallot looks good offensively but defensively is eh; Viloria like Vallot is too far down the rabbit hole) and they may have just done it to secure C until further notice. Just an educated guess on why they did it.

I think it's a reasonable deal. I was taking the position that Perez wasn't getting fucked.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I think it's a reasonable deal. I was taking the position that Perez wasn't getting fucked.

True- I was more implying they'd still give out the contract out today