A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[MiamiVice]

Yeah I can't argue w/ that. He's missed alotta games during his career. 2 of the previous 4 years he's only played in double digit games.

The Rockies get fans in their stadium when they are good... If they could build a team it would be fun to watch. i went to a game out there in 2007 when they were making their run. Great stadium. Cool brewery inside of it.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

And one of the pivotal plays in Game 7 of the last World Series went the Giants' way specifically because of their use of defensive analytics.

Well then, that's a bummer. A more typical alignment and the Royals could be going for a 3-peat this year instead.

 

[MiamiVice]

Well then, that's a bummer. A more typical alignment and the Royals could be going for a 3-peat this year instead.

I will say this.. use of shifts has changed the game. Hitters either need to learn to beat it.. or its going to continue.. how minor league hitting instructors don't work on this more is beyond me... No player should get up to the majors and not be able to beat a shift if they are going to give a huge amount of field up.

 

[Wamu]

The Rockies get fans in their stadium when they are good... If they could build a team it would be fun to watch. i went to a game out there in 2007 when they were making their run. Great stadium. Cool brewery inside of it.

Coors Field is a great ballpark I think, not a bad seat in the house. I go to about a dozen or so games each year.

 

[MiamiVice]

Coors Field is a great ballpark I think, not a bad seat in the house. I go to about a dozen or so games each year.

only went once... was out there for business. very cool park.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I will say this.. use of shifts has changed the game. Hitters either need to learn to beat it.. or its going to continue.. how minor league hitting instructors don't work on this more is beyond me... No player should get up to the majors and not be able to beat a shift if they are going to give a huge amount of field up.

The Astro's shift during the ALDS in Kauffman I found to be pretty baffling. Such a shallow shift in the largest outfield in the AL? I have a tough time believing the risk outweighs the rewards in such a park. There were a few flyouts that went for triples instead because of it.

 

[Wamu]

only went once... was out there for business. very cool park.

Traffic is a damn nightmare in downtown Denver. I have never driven to Coors Field, I always bus it down there. Trying to find parking on game day is a pain in the ass.

 

[MiamiVice]

The Astro's shift during the ALDS in Kauffman I found to be pretty baffling. Such a shallow shift in the largest outfield in the AL? I have a tough time believing the risk outweighs the rewards in such a park. There were a few flyouts that went for triples instead because of it.

Wasn't able to watch the game.. but I think it was game 4 when the Astro's were up like 6-2 and ended up losing.. did their use of the shift have anything to do with it?

 

[MiamiVice]

Traffic is a damn nightmare in downtown Denver. I have never driven to Coors Field, I always bus it down there. Trying to find parking on game day is a pain in the ass.

I was staying in a hotel downtown so I just walked.. Was in town for the GABF back in 2007.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Wasn't able to watch the game.. but I think it was game 4 when the Astro's were up like 6-2 and ended up losing.. did their use of the shift have anything to do with it?

Not really. Just pitches that were in the wrong place at the wrong time to hard contact team. Correa's error (and make no mistake, it's on him) broke the whole dam though. Truth be told, I was at an optometrist and the mood changed rather quickly. Thankfully, I recorded it. Games 2 and 5 proved more troublesome shift wise.

 

[MiamiVice]

Not really. Just pitches that were in the wrong place at the wrong time to hard contact team. Correa's error (and make no mistake, it's on him) broke the whole dam though. Truth be told, I was at an optometrist and the mood changed rather quickly.

I thought the series was over.. not going to lie.. I was giddy about the prospect to badger bums about it.. then I look it up later only to see they came back and won again... two years in a row they pulled a miracle. Destiny.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I thought the series was over.. not going to lie.. I was giddy about the prospect to badger bums about it.. then I look it up later only to see they came back and won again... two years in a row they pulled a miracle. Destiny.

So did everyone. Math was at 99.9% Astros series victory at that point I believe. Spooky kind of stuff in hindsight.

 

[MiamiVice]

So did everyone. Math was at 99.9% Astros series victory at that point I believe. Spooky kind of stuff in hindsight.

Its crazy how many times they defied the odds and came back to win a game in the playoffs the last 2 years.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Its crazy how many times they defied the odds and came back to win a game in the playoffs the last 2 years.

Yeah, the odds of sweeping the WS in 2014 had to be exceptionally low for instance. The A's WC game at it's low point was at around 97% A's victory, iirc.

 

[MiamiVice]

Game 1 of the WS against the Mets was another one off the top of my head

 

[MiamiVice]

they just were not going to be stopped.. you have to admire that.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Game 1 of the WS against the Mets was another one off the top of my head

That may have been the most plausible of the unlikely comebacks is the funny part. Some of the other stuff that happened in the WS can be chalked up to simply bad defense on the Mets' part and aggressive scouting.

 

[MiamiVice]

That may have been the most plausible of the unlikely comebacks is the funny part. Some of the other stuff that happened in the WS can be chalked up to simply bad defense on the Mets' part and aggressive scouting.

I don't see the mets getting back to the WS for just that reason... They are not going to be that great of a defensive team...

I really wouldn't be surprised if the Marlins end up with more wins than the Mets this year. If Fernandez and Stanton stay healthy they have a really good team. Possibly the best outfield in baseball.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

The Astro's shift during the ALDS in Kauffman I found to be pretty baffling. Such a shallow shift in the largest outfield in the AL? I have a tough time believing the risk outweighs the rewards in such a park. There were a few flyouts that went for triples instead because of it.

It's playing the averages, and obviously, if an extreme shift allows triples and/or runs to score, that's going to be more memorable to us fans than instances of shifts robbing hitters, which does happen quite a bit. It's like someone playing blackjack by "the book" - he's increasing his chances of winning if he's playing thousands of hands, but view one hand in a vacuum, and those averages don't do shit.

Of course, when a team plays "by the book" in an important game and it ends badly, people who are afraid to know things cry, "see, moneyball doesn't work!" I think Vice mentioned "moneyball not working" for the A's, which is clearly not the case.

Playing the averages can have disastrous or remarkable results when looking at one specific situation. For example, stolen bases. It's been pretty widely proven that, over the course of a season, if your team is not stealing bases at a 75% success rate or better, they're better off not trying to steal. As such, the 2004 Red Sox had very few SB attempts, but when they needed it, they went against the averages and sent Dave Roberts out to swipe 2nd. It paid off and everyone remembers it.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I don't see the mets getting back to the WS for just that reason... They are not going to be that great of a defensive team...

I really wouldn't be surprised if the Marlins end up with more wins than the Mets this year. If Fernandez and Stanton stay healthy they have a really good team. Possibly the best outfield in baseball.

The Mets seem to be the favorites to win the NL Central, and if they do that, they've got as good a chance as any of the other teams to make the WS. The playoffs, with their short series (in the context of a 162-game season, even a seven-game series is short), are rife with crapshootidity.

It's my opinion that the Mets weren't that good of a team in 2015. They had a ridiculously (perhaps even historically) weak strength of schedule that they took full advantage of. It didn't make me popular with Mets fans, but I suggested that had the Mets been in any other division, they'd have fought to be much over .500.