A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[Fountain City Blues]

It's playing the averages, and obviously, if an extreme shift allows triples and/or runs to score, that's going to be more memorable to us fans than instances of shifts robbing hitters, which does happen quite a bit. It's like someone playing blackjack by "the book" - he's increasing his chances of winning if he's playing thousands of hands, but view one hand in a vacuum, and those averages don't do shit.

Of course, when a team plays "by the book" in an important game and it ends badly, people who are afraid to know things cry, "see, moneyball doesn't work!" I think Vice mentioned "moneyball not working" for the A's, which is clearly not the case.

Playing the averages can have disastrous or remarkable results when looking at one specific situation. For example, stolen bases. It's been pretty widely proven that, over the course of a season, if your team is not stealing bases at a 75% success rate or better, they're better off not trying to steal. As such, the 2004 Red Sox had very few SB attempts, but when they needed it, they went against the averages and sent Dave Roberts out to swipe 2nd. It paid off and everyone remembers it.

True, I am just wondering out loud what said average actually is in a park such as Kauffman or Coors versus say Minute Maid. If there is a data set I can look at to be able to tease the answer out in a more refined way, that'd be lovely.

 

[Erie Warrior]

Vegas picks the Tribe to win the Central. Only 80.5 wins for the Tigers? They must not be factoring the amount of heart that is generated from putting on the old English D.

The oddsmakers foresee a closely contested battle in the division. The Superbook set the over/under for the Indians' win total at 85.5. The Royals follow at 83.5, with the Tigers and White Sox (80.5) and Twins (79.5) trailing behind. The Cubs lead all teams at 93.5 wins, while the Phillies are supplied an estimate of 64.5.



Las Vegas oddsmakers peg Cleveland Indians as AL Central favorites

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Vegas picks the Tribe to win the Central. Only 80.5 wins for the Tigers? They must not be factoring the amount of heart that is generated from putting on the old English D.

The oddsmakers foresee a closely contested battle in the division. The Superbook set the over/under for the Indians' win total at 85.5. The Royals follow at 83.5, with the Tigers and White Sox (80.5) and Twins (79.5) trailing behind. The Cubs lead all teams at 93.5 wins, while the Phillies are supplied an estimate of 64.5.



Las Vegas oddsmakers peg Cleveland Indians as AL Central favorites

God damnit. Mother fuckers.

Would everyone just please say the Indians are going to suck out loud? Cleveland teams historically do not do well with expectations.

 

[Howie115]

The Mets seem to be the favorites to win the NL Central, and if they do that, they've got as good a chance as any of the other teams to make the WS. The playoffs, with their short series (in the context of a 162-game season, even a seven-game series is short), are rife with crapshootidity.

When did the Mets move into the Central?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

When did the Mets move into the Central?

Last week. You didn't hear?

Major shakeup. Cards, Cubs & Bucs moved to the AL West.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Cleveland teams historically do not do well with expectations.

Upon further consideration, it's apparent that Cleveland teams historically do not do well with or without expectations, so fuck it.

 

[handicappers]

I was staying in a hotel downtown so I just walked.. Was in town for the GABF back in 2007.

No you weren't.

 

[Wamu]

No you weren't.

Zing!

 

[Iffster]

No you weren't.

C'mon. Vice probably got free tickets from his pals with the Marlins. Or maybe the Tigers were playing the Rockies and his fellow UM grad, Bill Freehan, got Vice a couple of free passes? Or it was Marine day............

 

[handicappers]

C'mon. Vice probably got free tickets from his pals with the Marlins. Or maybe the Tigers were playing the Rockies and his fellow UM grad, Bill Freehan, got Vice a couple of free passes? Or it was Marine day............

Is there anyone he doesn't know or anything he hasn't done? Dude is more full of shit than the outhouse

 

[Iffster]

A Detroit Tiger question for Vice. Why did the Tigers sign Mike Aviles for $2mil and then turn around and resign Romine for another season? Especially since they have a decent prospect in middle infielder Dixon Machado just about ready to go?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Mike Aviles

His young daughter, maybe 5 years old or so, fought cancer last year and the Indians told him they would not trade him so that he could stay put with his daughter and focus on her well being while being treated at Cleveland Clinic. Today she's cancer free. It's an awesome story all the way around that touches me. God bless Mike Aviles and his family.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

God bless Mike Aviles and his family.

Even if they are Mexican.

 

[MiamiVice]

Is there anyone he doesn't know or anything he hasn't done? Dude is more full of shit than the outhouse

this coming from a guy that lies about being dr phil...

 

[MiamiVice]

hey @handicappers ... i am about 30 mins from jason's deli in pembroke pines... want to dance?

 

[MiamiVice]

i am going to post a pic from jason's deli with you know showing up...

 

[MiamiVice]

A Detroit Tiger question for Vice. Why did the Tigers sign Mike Aviles for $2mil and then turn around and resign Romine for another season? Especially since they have a decent prospect in middle infielder Dixon Machado just about ready to go?

I have no idea iffy... Aviles sucks cock... I have no idea.

 

[Wamu]

i am going to post a pic from jason's deli with you know showing up...

Who's gonna be @ Jason's Deli, Batman?

 

[Iffster]

His young daughter, maybe 5 years old or so, fought cancer last year and the Indians told him they would not trade him so that he could stay put with his daughter and focus on her well being while being treated at Cleveland Clinic. Today she's cancer free. It's an awesome story all the way around that touches me. God bless Mike Aviles and his family.

So....maybe Detroit signing him was a way to keep him close to home? Kudos to Detroit, if so

 

[MiamiVice]

Who's @ Jason's Deli, Batman?

i will be there in 30 min... hopefully @handicappers doesn't puss out.