A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[Howie115]

Of course, I'm assuming Castellanos hits 6th. There is a possibility that Upton hits there, but with Upton's OBP being considerably higher than Kinsler, Gose or Maybin, plus his good speed, I'm seeing him in the #2 spot right now.

 

[Howie115]

Castellanos has the potential to hit for average and power. Nothing has changed there. He is still a kid in baseball terms. The day the light goes on and he is able to really understand what pitchers are trying to do to him he is going to catch fire. He has no real hole in his swing. Can hit the ball to all parts of the park.. its more just a mental thing with him not swinging at pitches outside of the zone and understanding how pitchers are working him and adjusting. The tools are there... more so than most hitters in the AL Central.

The second half of the season last year you could see signs of him figuring it out. Out of all the young 3rd basemen in the MLB... NOBODY had as highly regarded bat as Castellanos did by scouts.

The two biggest differences I saw with Casty in the second half of last season were: (1) laying off outside pitches more, (2) starting to turn more on inside-corner pitches and hit them to left, instead of fisting them to right.

 

[MiamiVice]

Of course, I'm assuming Castellanos hits 6th. There is a possibility that Upton hits there, but with Upton's OBP being considerably higher than Kinsler, Gose or Maybin, plus his good speed, I'm seeing him in the #2 spot right now.

I would bet on Upton hitting second... I would rather see Upton bat in the leadoff position than #6 to be honest. You don't sign people to 130mil contracts for them to bat #6.

 

[MiamiVice]

The two biggest differences I saw with Casty in the second half of last season were: (1) laying off outside pitches more, (2) starting to turn more on inside-corner pitches and hit them to left, instead of fisting them to right.

His OBP and OPS went through the roof in the second half.

Odd stat on Castellanos. He hit nearly 25 points higher at home than away. Never really seen that at Comerica. Its a pretty neutral park... if not a pitchers park with its dimensions.

 

[MiamiVice]

I am surprised that Fowler, Austin Jackson, and Marlon Byrd are still free agents... Why the hell haven't the Indians picked up the phone and called one of these guys? Seriously. All three could be had with a two year deal... Byrd and Jackson might even take a one year deal.

 

[MiamiVice]

Side note.. why would anyone sign Fowler over Austin Jackson when Austin Jackson will not cost a draft pick or be as expensive.. yet offers a pretty comparable skill set?

 

[Howie115]

Odd stat on Castellanos. He hit nearly 25 points higher at home than away. Never really seen that at Comerica. Its a pretty neutral park... if not a pitchers park with its dimensions.

A good park for doubles and triples. Not so much for home runs.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Aberrations like that do happen, and certainly happened to the Tigers last season. Two main reasons: poor BA with RISP and lack of home runs. Their best hitter with RISP (Cabrera) missed almost two months, and he hit only 18 HR when he did play. So the runs scored make sense in that context.

Of course BA with RISP, and BABIP with RISP play into run scoring. That's the "sequencing" that I mentioned to my wind up toy yesterday.

That is likely a big part of the +40 run projection that BP has for the Indians in 2016. In 2015, their BABIP w/ RISP was significantly below league average:

2015 Indians BABIP
bases empty - .305
men on - .292
RISP - .278

2015 League Average 2015
bases empty - .294
men on - .306
RISP - .298

But back to the run differential between the 2015 Royals and Tigers, obviously, a significant part of the difference would be the base running, as I pointed out. The Royals were very good on the bases while the Tigers were poor.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Aberrations like that do happen, and certainly happened to the Tigers last season. Two main reasons: poor BA with RISP and lack of home runs. Their best hitter with RISP (Cabrera) missed almost two months, and he hit only 18 HR when he did play. So the runs scored make sense in that context.

Should be interesting to see what happens with Cabrera these next couple of years, because sluggers tend to age very poorly in their 30s (whether due to injuries, loss of skills or some combination) compared to the average player.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Should be interesting to see what happens with Cabrera these next couple of years, because sluggers tend to age very poorly in their 30s (whether due to injuries, loss of skills or some combination).

No worries. Cabrera sports an English D on his cap, so he's immune from such things.

 

[Howie115]

But back to the run differential between the 2015 Royals and Tigers, obviously, a significant part of the difference would be the base running, as I pointed out. The Royals were very good on the bases while the Tigers were poor.

The Royals do score more from second on singles, I'm dead certain. As a whole, the Tigers baserunning isn't too bad, the problem is their best OBP guys (Cabrera, Vmart) are also their slowest runners.

 

[Howie115]

The Tigers were atrocious hitting with RISP last season, and much of it was due to one player -- Victor Martinez. He once led the league in BA with RISP, but last year's knee injury made him pretty much an automatic out as a LH batter. He really shouldn't have played at all once the Tigers had their fire sale and punted the season.

 

[MiamiVice]

Of course BA with RISP, and BABIP with RISP play into run scoring. That's the "sequencing" that I mention to my wind up toy yesterday.

That is likely a big part of the +40 run projection that BP has for the Indians in 2016. In 2015, their BABIP w/ RISP was significantly below league average:

2015 Indians BABIP
bases empty - .305
men on - .292
RISP - .278

2015 League Average 2015
bases empty - .294
men on - .306
RISP - .298

But back to the run differential between the 2015 Royals and Tigers, obviously, a significant part of the difference would be the base running, as I pointed out. The Royals were very good on the bases while the Tigers were poor.

And the Indians were just as shitty. The Indians are NOT a good base running team. Their DH/1st/3rd are just as slow as the Tigers. The Tigers catcher is actually 10 times faster than Yan Gomes... as proof with his inside the park HR and 5 triples. James McCann had the same amount of triples last year as Yan Gomes has had in his entire career.

Stop bringing this shit up. Its done. The projection is fucking retarded. Much like the majority of people in Ohio.

 

[MiamiVice]

Is there one position that the Indians actually have more speed?

By position

SS - Tigers
1st - par
2nd - Kinsler
3rd - par
catcher - Tigers
LF - Tigers
Cf - Tigers
Rf - par
Dh - par

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

The Royals do score more from second on singles, I'm dead certain. As a whole, the Tigers baserunning isn't too bad, the problem is their best OBP guys (Cabrera, Vmart) are also their slowest runners.

In 2015, the Tigers were below league average on RS% (% of baserunners that score), SB% (% of successful steals / attempts), and XB% (% runners take more than a base on a single, and more that two on a double). They were a below average running team. Depending on your definition of not "too bad," that might fit.

Here are the comparisons (RS% - SB% - XB%)

DET - 28% - 62% - 34%
KCR - 32% - 75% - 44%
AVE - 30% - 69% - 38%

That's significant, and certainly part of why the Royals scored more runs despite sporting lower rate stats.

 

[MiamiVice]

Should be interesting to see what happens with Cabrera these next couple of years, because sluggers tend to age very poorly in their 30s (whether due to injuries, loss of skills or some combination) compared to the average player.

Elite level hitters tend to age very well. How old is Arod? Ortiz? How did Thome do in his later years? Frank Thomas? All these guys produced into their late 30's at a very high level.

Comparing an elite hitter that may be the greatest hitter of the last 60 years (maybe ever) to anything is impossible.. so just stop.

 

[Howie115]

The Tigers catcher is actually 10 times faster than Yan Gomes... as proof with his inside the park HR and 5 triples. James McCann had the same amount of triples last year as Yan Gomes has had in his entire career.

The CoPa is a much better triples park than Progressive Field, as indicated previously. But point taken.

 

[MiamiVice]

No worries. Cabrera sports an English D on his cap, so he's immune from such things.

You are a moron. Jim Thome was immune because he was an Indian? or was it just because he was an all time great hitter?

All time greats tend to age well.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

And the Indians were just as shitty

You are such a child.

We're having a conversation about the run differential between the Royals and the Tigers, part of which is explained by the Tigers' questionable running game. You can't handle that so it's, "but the Indians suck."

Grow up, you silly twat.

 

[MiamiVice]

In 2015, the Tigers were below league average on RS% (% of baserunners that score), SB% (% of successful steals / attempts), and XB% (% runners take more than a base on a single, and more that two on a double). They were a below average running team. Depending on your definition of not "too bad," that might fit.

Here are the comparisons (RS% - SB% - XB%)

DET - 28% - 62% - 34%
KCR - 32% - 75% - 44%
AVE - 30% - 69% - 38%

That's significant, and certainly part of why the Royals scored more runs despite sporting lower rate stats.

Why are we even talking about this. The thing started with Indians / Tigers.. The Indians are shit on the bases.. move the fuck on.