2025 Rosterbation

[tzill]

What changed between the end of the season and now for you? I thought you were pretty excited about him around September.
I do expect some regression but not enough that I think he needs to be utility.

I think his BABIP is unsustainable and the league will adjust. He'll need to adjust back.

What will NOT regress is his speed; that's elite.

 

[tzill]

This must be determined now for game threads.

Well, game to game is different from what I am saying. To be clear, I don't expect 20 decent individual starts, but rather a total of 20 starts which overall is "decent."

 

[tzill]

No we don't!!

Shut up, all of us!

 

[msgkings322]

Fair question.

How about 20 starts, 100 innings, 3.75 ERA, 110 ERA+, 1.8 WAR?

Might be a tad optimistic but
a. I'm not Sandis
b. It's January

Just a tad lol

 

[calsnowskier]

Fair question.

How about 20 starts, 100 innings, 3.75 ERA, 110 ERA+, 1.8 WAR?

Might be a tad optimistic but
a. I'm not Sandis
b. It's January

That is SUPER optimistic. In a generic conceptual OU on THAT, I am putting a sizable bet on the under.

 

[tzill]

That is SUPER optimistic. In a generic conceptual OU on THAT, I am putting a sizable bet on the under.

 

[SF11704]

While I think the predictions around Verlander are interesting ... for me personally a real interesting situation will be Ray. We all know what he was capable of providing during a solid year but this will be his first full season back since surgery. It's also the last year on his contract. Will he have a great year like Snelk ... and then walk ... like Snelk ...

 

[calsnowskier]

While I think the predictions around Verlander are interesting ... for me personally a real interesting situation will be Ray. We all know what he was capable of providing during a solid year but this will be his first full season back since surgery. It's also the last year on his contract. Will he have a great year like Snelk ... and then walk ... like Snelk ...

I have little concern around Ray. TJ is pretty standard at this point, so I think it is fair to assume he will be back to a solid #2 starter this season. I don’t expect him to be an ace, but I expect 170-180 IP with a 4.00 ERA. That is sub-all star, but a solid member of a slightly above average rotation.

I think the REAL focus of the rotation this year is Harrison. He needs to step up this year and start to put together what he has learned over the last couple years. I expect/hope he will be a true co-ace with Webb starting in ‘26. If he doesn’t make those jumps this year, than we are in trouble moving forward.

 

[tzill]

While I think the predictions around Verlander are interesting ... for me personally a real interesting situation will be Ray. We all know what he was capable of providing during a solid year but this will be his first full season back since surgery. It's also the last year on his contract. Will he have a great year like Snelk ... and then walk ... like Snelk ...

I was just thinking about this earlier today. I'd expect Ray to have a really good year in 2025. Post TJ guys seem to get better a year after surgery. I think he's going to have a solid, maybe all-star year.

 

[tzill]

I have little concern around Ray. TJ is pretty standard at this point, so I think it is fair to assume he will be back to a solid #2 starter this season. I don’t expect him to be an ace, but I expect 170-180 IP with a 4.00 ERA. That is sub-all star, but a solid member of a slightly above average rotation.

I think the REAL focus of the rotation this year is Harrison. He needs to step up this year and start to put together what he has learned over the last couple years. I expect/hope he will be a true co-ace with Webb starting in ‘26. If he doesn’t make those jumps this year, than we are in trouble moving forward.

Yes and no. I do think Ray could be a co-ace. He was a CY guy when fully healthy remember. I also am not worried if Harry doesn't make the leap to ace. You never know what will happen - Whiz may turn out to be the next MadBum, e.g. We may trade for an ace. Two years out is just too far. I'm hoping for ace level from Webb and Ray, solid middle rotation work from JV and Harry, and improvement from Hicks and Bird.

We shall see.

 

[LHG]

I was just thinking about this earlier today. I'd expect Ray to have a really good year in 2025. Post TJ guys seem to get better a year after surgery. I think he's going to have a solid, maybe all-star year.

I was thinking the opposite. I thought its a gamble on how guys bounce back from TJ surgery. Ray could be great, he could be rather mediocre. I haven't looked into the success rates of TJ pitchers to see how they do afterward, compared to pre surgery.

 

[calsnowskier]

Yes and no. I do think Ray could be a co-ace. He was a CY guy when fully healthy remember. I also am not worried if Harry doesn't make the leap to ace. You never know what will happen - Whiz may turn out to be the next MadBum, e.g. We may trade for an ace. Two years out is just too far. I'm hoping for ace level from Webb and Ray, solid middle rotation work from JV and Harry, and improvement from Hicks and Bird.

We shall see.

He has had 2 exceptional seasons.

And that’s about it. He CAN be good, but he is going into his age 33 season and recovering from TJ. I think my posted expectations are a fair, OPTIMISTIC prediction. “Expecting” ace or CY production from him is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

[msgkings322]

He has had 2 exceptional seasons.

And that’s about it. He CAN be good, but he is going into his age 33 season and recovering from TJ. I think my posted expectations are a fair, OPTIMISTIC prediction. “Expecting” ace or CY production from him is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

Tzill saves his pessimism for game day threads