2023 Rosterbation

[LHG]

While I don’t blame the Giants, sounds like they did “try” to land Judge, and the Correa thing seems to be significant, it’s hard to say they have had a “solid” off-season. I’d say we have had a decent at best offseason. I didn’t hear much of us going after Xander or Dansby, and if money was no object, we should have been right there. We also lost Rodon and who knows how much he will play or how effective Conforto will be? At this point, seems like we more just rearranged musical chairs than anything of significance. But who knows, I never thought that 107 win team would win even 90 games, so who knows?

Compare Rodon's 2022 numbers with Stripling and Manaea. Assuming all look about the same in 2023, that's a drop off. Haniger and Conforto have question marks with health and both didn't look that good in their last seasons of play. I'm with you on "decent at best" offseason. Only Stripling had a good year in 2022. All others had down years or didn't even play and so the Giants are rolling the dice that they will all rebound to some degree (or, in Stripling's case, build off a possible career year). That worked wonderfully in 2021, not so much in 2022.

 

[LHG]

The Giants have signed OF/C Clint Coulter and 1B/C Brett Cumberland to minor league contracts.

Seems like multi-positional catchers are FZ's new middle infielders.

 

[tzill]

Compare Rodon's 2022 numbers with Stripling and Manaea. Assuming all look about the same in 2023, that's a drop off. Haniger and Conforto have question marks with health and both didn't look that good in their last seasons of play. I'm with you on "decent at best" offseason. Only Stripling had a good year in 2022. All others had down years or didn't even play and so the Giants are rolling the dice that they will all rebound to some degree (or, in Stripling's case, build off a possible career year). That worked wonderfully in 2021, not so much in 2022.

Context though.

1. It wouldn't be Rodon vs. Stripling and Manaea. It would be Rodon and Brebbia vs. Strip and Manny.
2. Look at the cost: $27M for Rodon, $12.5 for Strip, $12.5 for Manaea in 2023. Brebbia is a wash since he's still ours. That seems equivalent, but the $162M total commitment to a guy unlikely to stay healthy would have been a poor move. Worst case, Strip and Manny are off the books in 2025. Best case, we get comp picks for both. AND, we get a comp pick for Rodo.

 

[LHG]

Context though.

1. It wouldn't be Rodon vs. Stripling and Manaea. It would be Rodon and Brebbia vs. Strip and Manny.
2. Look at the cost: $27M for Rodon, $12.5 for Strip, $12.5 for Manaea in 2023. Brebbia is a wash since he's still ours. That seems equivalent, but the $162M total commitment to a guy unlikely to stay healthy would have been a poor move. Worst case, Strip and Manny are off the books in 2025. Best case, we get comp picks for both. AND, we get a comp pick for Rodo.

I'm thinking purely about performance and how the changes affect the starting rotation. And since we are bringing in Brebbia to compare, then we'd also need to look at the next 1 to 2 pitchers (depending on the game) to compare. I'll go back to WAR to at least compare Rodon vs. Stripling (since Stripling had the better season in 2022):
Rodon - 5.4 (31 starts)
Stripling - 2.7 (24 starts, 8 relief)
Since Stripling started in the bullpen, maybe his WAR could be bumped up a bit to compare straight to Rodon. I'm going to guess that maybe he could have earned another .5 on his WAR and would have had a 3.2 if he started the whole season. That is still 2.2 fewer wins right there.

Now, comparing Manaea with Brebbia (et al) is a bit harder. How does one take WAR for an opener and figure out only the portion that was earned as an opener? Brebbia posted a 1.6 WAR in 76 appearances, 11 of which were openers. Brebbia only exceeded 1 inning of work in 5 games, none of which were as an opener. So, for simplicity, let's take 1.6 and divide by 76 (.02 per game) and then multiply it by the number of opening appearances. That comes out to a 0.2 WAR for those 11 games.
Manaea, by comparison, averaged 5 innings pitched in his 30 games. However, he pitched in relief for 2 of them, putting his average at 5.1 IP. So, to compare, we may need to look at the 11 games Brebbia was an opener and see who pitched behind him for the last 4.1 IP. Here are his 11 openers:
June 3rd, followed by Hjelle (3) and Littell (2).
July 3rd, followed by Garcia (1), Hjelle (2) and Long (3).
July 13th, followed by Long (1.2) and Rogers (2.1)
Sept 6th, followed by Garcia (1.2) and Rogers (2.1)
Sept 11th, followed by Rogers (2) and Marte (2)
Sept 17th, followed by Hjelle (1), Young (2) and Garcia (3)
Sept 20th, followed by Rogers (2) and Hjelle (4)
Sept 22nd, followed by Rogers (1), Garcia (2.1) and Cotton (2.2)
Sept 28th, followed by Hjelle (4)
Oct 3rd, followed by Hjelle (5)
Oct 5th, followed by Marte (2), Young (1.2) and Waites (0.1)
How do we take WAR from this? Hjelle is the easiest, as he pitched 19 of his 25 IP in these games. We'll take -0.3 of his -0.4 WAR. The rest a bit more difficult. Let's just put the rest of the squad at a 0.0 WAR as the work was very uneven in these games. That leaves a total of -0.1 WAR for Brebbia's 11 openers.
So what about the remaining 17 starts that Manaea put in. Well, looking at the Giants, Long had 6 openers, Alexander had 4 openers and Young and Llovera had 1 openers apiece. That accounts for another 12 of the remaining 17 starts. The last 5? Easy, DeSclafani made those 5 starts. Except he'll be in the rotation, so it may be easier to just take Junis' 17 starts instead of these guys.
Junis also pitched in relief for 6 games. His total WAR was 1.6. 4 of his 6 relief appearances were good but the other 2 were awful. So I'll assign 1.5 of his 1.6 WAR to his starts.
How does this all look?
Brebbia and crew; Junis - 1.4
Manaea - (-0.9)

Even if I'm being too generous, let's say Brebbia and Junis equal 1.0 WAR, that is still a loss of almost 2 full wins with Manaea's 2022 season.

The way I see it, if everything goes right (Manaea gets back to 3.0 WAR, Stripling can repeat his 3.2 and Rodon drops off with the Yankees, to a 4.0) then the 2023 rotation will be about the same as 2022. If 2023 repeats itself, then the rotation brings 4 fewer wins than the 2022 rotation. If Stripling regresses, the gap gets wider.

 

[calsnowskier]

I am lost.

Why is Brebbia involved in this conversation at all?

 

[LHG]

I am lost.

Why is Brebbia involved in this conversation at all?

tzill suggested that he be a comparable as the guy who gets bumped out of the "rotation" since he was an opener for 11 games.
The 2023 rotation looks something like this:
Webb
Cobb
Stripling
DeSclafani
Manaea

Since Wood is bumped, maybe it should be Wood versus Manaea. In that case, Wood's 0.2 WAR would mean a less extreme difference with Manaea than the scenario I played out. Its still a drop off.

 

[calsnowskier]

tzill suggested that he be a comparable as the guy who gets bumped out of the "rotation" since he was an opener for 11 games.
The 2023 rotation looks something like this:
Webb
Cobb
Stripling
DeSclafani
Manaea

Since Wood is bumped, maybe it should be Wood versus Manaea. In that case, Wood's 0.2 WAR would mean a less extreme difference with Manaea than the scenario I played out. Its still a drop off.

But Wood will still be a swing man, and he is still on the roster, so he will (supposedly) improve the bully.

Like I mentioned, we lose the stud arm taking up a single roster spot, but replace it with 2 decent arms taking up 2 roster spots. That hurts in that it removes some flexibility (1 roster spot vs 2 roster spots), but it extends our depth, which is pretty big in today’s game.

 

[LHG]

But Wood will still be a swing man, and he is still on the roster, so he will (supposedly) improve the bully.

Like I mentioned, we lose the stud arm taking up a single roster spot, but replace it with 2 decent arms taking up 2 roster spots. That hurts in that it removes some flexibility (1 roster spot vs 2 roster spots), but it extends our depth, which is pretty big in today’s game.

But that is with the assumption that Manaea looks more like his 2021 version than his 2022 version. It is certainly possible but questionable. If he pitches like 2022 again then it doesn't build depth, it weakens the rotation.

 

[calsnowskier]

But that is with the assumption that Manaea looks more like his 2021 version than his 2022 version. It is certainly possible but questionable. If he pitches like 2022 again then it doesn't build depth, it weakens the rotation.

Of course. Anything can happen. The current administration, though, has a track record of getting good production out of the few targeted FA pitchers that they target each year, so I am giving them that benefit of the doubt.

 

[filosofy29]

I think by “upgrading” (in depth at least) from Rodon to Manaea/Stripling is an average at best off-season. And yes, I’m talking about on field performance not contracts (I don’t like Rodon’s contract). But who knows, if they can turn Man back into a stud and stripling can be close to last year it’s a huge win. I just think we have far too many question marks (Conforto, Haniger, Manaea) etc to call it a “solid” off-season. Like said, if money was zero object, we seemed to only be in on two big free agents, that seems like a lack of planning or execution. I think my favorite target was Philly bound no matter what in Turner (just because it hurt the dodgers too), but Dansby and Xander I didn’t hear a peep about us even kicking the tires. But I will remain optimistic for our guys.

 

[LHG]

Of course. Anything can happen. The current administration, though, has a track record of getting good production out of the few targeted FA pitchers that they target each year, so I am giving them that benefit of the doubt.

They do have a good reputation for bringing good starting pitchers from the scrap heap but I think that reputation is a bit overstated. Consider who they've picked up and put in the starting rotation:
2019
Drew Pomeranz - Starts 17 games before being moved to the bullpen for 4 games and then flipped to the Brewers for Dubon. Posted a 5.68 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in 77.2 IP. This was a gamble signing after a horrible year with Boston in 2018. He put together two good years as a starter before 2018.
2020
Kevin Gausman - I won't put much time in this one. He was good. And after a poor 2019. This gamble paid off much better than Pomeranz and he actually pitched even better in 2021.
Tyler Anderson - Another gamble signing after a rough 2019 with the Rockies (in 5 starts). While his ERA was okay (4.37, slightly better than 2018 and 2017), his WHIP was mediocre (1.391) in 11 starts (and 2 relief appearances). It wasn't until 2022, with the Dodgers, that he finally seemed to put everything together.
Drew Smyly - I'll stop referring to them as gamble signings as just about all of them are signed after a down year. Smyly's 2019 season was absolutely awful. However, he bounced back nicely with the Giants, albeit in just 5 starts (3.42 ERA, 1.105 WHIP). I'd rate him higher if he stayed healthy all year.
Trevor Cahill - 2020 bookend two horrible seasons for him with a good season as the other half of the Smyly platoon. In 11 games (6 starts), he posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.200 WHIP.
2021
Anthony DeSclafani - Yet another nice bounceback year for the new guy. Posted a 3.17 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. Only the 2nd pitcher on this list to be with the Giants for a 2nd year and it was an absolute disaster. We'll see what happens in 2023.
Alex Wood - He had poor seasons in 2020 and 2019 but the bigger issue was his injuries that stole most of both seasons. He stayed healthy and pitched well (3.83, 1.183). However, 2022 was an entirely different story.
Aaron Sanchez - After missing most of 2019 and all of 2020, it was questionable he would even make the team. He ended up in 9 games (7 starts) and, while his ERA was good (3.06), his WHIP (1.330) was rather mediocre. He got injured and released when he was ready to return, reportedly because he didn't want to pitch out of the bullpen.
2022
Carlos Rodon - Closer to a Stripling signing than any other guys, Rodon's issue wasn't a poor 2021, it was the question of whether 2021 was a mirage, due to a late season meltdown and some health concerns. He proved that it was no fluke.
Alex Cobb - I'd say his 2022 was a bit overrated but it was still decent (3.73 ERA, 1.303 WHIP) and better than 2021.
Jakob Junis - He was horrible with KC in 2021 but provided some early heroics in 2022 before hitting a wall, posting a mediocre season (4.42, 1.295).

In total, FZ has brought in 11 pitchers, across 4 seasons, to fill out the starting rotation. The results are more mixed than I think people realize. According to my very subjective score, I'd say 5 were good to great. Another 3 were decent. The other 3 were bombs, either from performance or injuries. Keep in mind, though, that of the 5 in the top tier, only 4 stuck around past one season. Of those 4, 2 took huge steps back and another 1 will be tested in 2023.
I think that means that it is not unreasonable for Manaea to bounce back somewhat in 2023 but it may be short term.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think by “upgrading” (in depth at least) from Rodon to Manaea/Stripling is an average at best off-season. And yes, I’m talking about on field performance not contracts (I don’t like Rodon’s contract). But who knows, if they can turn Man back into a stud and stripling can be close to last year it’s a huge win. I just think we have far too many question marks (Conforto, Haniger, Manaea) etc to call it a “solid” off-season. Like said, if money was zero object, we seemed to only be in on two big free agents, that seems like a lack of planning or execution. I think my favorite target was Philly bound no matter what in Turner (just because it hurt the dodgers too), but Dansby and Xander I didn’t hear a peep about us even kicking the tires. But I will remain optimistic for our guys.

I think if we never got in bed with Correa, we would have focused on Swanson. But because we already “signed” Correa, Dansby was not needed, so they never pursued him after that. Then, when Correa fell through, they were fucked because Swanson and Bogearts were off the table.

I suspect we kicked the tires on Turner, but he wasn’t interested in staying on the west coast, so we really weren’t ever in the running.

 

[filosofy29]

I think if we never got in bed with Correa, we would have focused on Swanson. But because we already “signed” Correa, Dansby was not needed, so they never pursued him after that. Then, when Correa fell through, they were fucked because Swanson and Bogearts were off the table.

I suspect we kicked the tires on Turner, but he wasn’t interested in staying on the west coast, so we really weren’t ever in the running.

Swanson was off the board by the time Correa fell apart, but if I recall correctly (which is a big if lol), Bogey signed prior to Correa.

 

[Sandisfan]

Updated for Conforto and Rogers…

—————————

Old quoted post!

They do have a good reputation for bringing good starting pitchers from the scrap heap but I think that reputation is a bit overstated. Consider who they've picked up and put in the starting rotation:
2019
Drew Pomeranz - Starts 17 games before being moved to the bullpen for 4 games and then flipped to the Brewers for Dubon. Posted a 5.68 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in 77.2 IP. This was a gamble signing after a horrible year with Boston in 2018. He put together two good years as a starter before 2018.
2020
Kevin Gausman - I won't put much time in this one. He was good. And after a poor 2019. This gamble paid off much better than Pomeranz and he actually pitched even better in 2021.
Tyler Anderson - Another gamble signing after a rough 2019 with the Rockies (in 5 starts). While his ERA was okay (4.37, slightly better than 2018 and 2017), his WHIP was mediocre (1.391) in 11 starts (and 2 relief appearances). It wasn't until 2022, with the Dodgers, that he finally seemed to put everything together.
Drew Smyly - I'll stop referring to them as gamble signings as just about all of them are signed after a down year. Smyly's 2019 season was absolutely awful. However, he bounced back nicely with the Giants, albeit in just 5 starts (3.42 ERA, 1.105 WHIP). I'd rate him higher if he stayed healthy all year.
Trevor Cahill - 2020 bookend two horrible seasons for him with a good season as the other half of the Smyly platoon. In 11 games (6 starts), he posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.200 WHIP.
2021
Anthony DeSclafani - Yet another nice bounceback year for the new guy. Posted a 3.17 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. Only the 2nd pitcher on this list to be with the Giants for a 2nd year and it was an absolute disaster. We'll see what happens in 2023.
Alex Wood - He had poor seasons in 2020 and 2019 but the bigger issue was his injuries that stole most of both seasons. He stayed healthy and pitched well (3.83, 1.183). However, 2022 was an entirely different story.
Aaron Sanchez - After missing most of 2019 and all of 2020, it was questionable he would even make the team. He ended up in 9 games (7 starts) and, while his ERA was good (3.06), his WHIP (1.330) was rather mediocre. He got injured and released when he was ready to return, reportedly because he didn't want to pitch out of the bullpen.
2022
Carlos Rodon - Closer to a Stripling signing than any other guys, Rodon's issue wasn't a poor 2021, it was the question of whether 2021 was a mirage, due to a late season meltdown and some health concerns. He proved that it was no fluke.
Alex Cobb - I'd say his 2022 was a bit overrated but it was still decent (3.73 ERA, 1.303 WHIP) and better than 2021.
Jakob Junis - He was horrible with KC in 2021 but provided some early heroics in 2022 before hitting a wall, posting a mediocre season (4.42, 1.295).

In total, FZ has brought in 11 pitchers, across 4 seasons, to fill out the starting rotation. The results are more mixed than I think people realize. According to my very subjective score, I'd say 5 were good to great. Another 3 were decent. The other 3 were bombs, either from performance or injuries. Keep in mind, though, that of the 5 in the top tier, only 4 stuck around past one season. Of those 4, 2 took huge steps back and another 1 will be tested in 2023.
I think that means that it is not unreasonable for Manaea to bounce back somewhat in 2023 but it may be short term.

On thing to consider is that generally those that pitched well got more innings and those who were injured or bad got fewer innings. So quantitatively the bad signings hurt less than the good signings helped.

UGH Had an old quoted post that I should have not added at the top. OH Well

 

[calsnowskier]

Swanson was off the board by the time Correa fell apart, but if I recall correctly (which is a big if lol), Bogey signed prior to Correa.

I suspect they were deep in conversations w Correa before he “signed”, so Bogaerts going elsewhere wasnt a huge deal.

Swanson signing during the window where Correa was a Giant is exactly my point.

 

[filosofy29]

I suspect they were deep in conversations w Correa before he “signed”, so Bogaerts going elsewhere wasnt a huge deal.

Swanson signing during the window where Correa was a Giant is exactly my point.

Putting all your eggs in one basket when money isn’t an object…just seems like a wrong play. Not like the giants have been known for landing huge free agents recently. And I mean, they just saw what could happen with Judge.

Right, I was agreeing with you on him.

But if you want to call this off-season solid instead of average, we can agree to disagree.

 

[calsnowskier]

Putting all your eggs in one basket when money isn’t an object…just seems like a wrong play. Not like the giants have been known for landing huge free agents recently. And I mean, they just saw what could happen with Judge.

Right, I was agreeing with you on him.

But if you want to call this off-season solid instead of average, we can agree to disagree.

I am absolutely NOT calling this a successful off-season.

Closer to a disaster than a home run. If you look up “treading water” in the dictionary, under examples, it lists “2022/2023 San Francisco Giants off-season”.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I am absolutely NOT calling this a successful off-season.

Closer to a disaster than a home run. If you look up “treading water” in the dictionary, under examples, it lists “2022/2023 San Francisco Giants off-season”.

Per Spotrac, we expanded the payroll from $172mm in 2022 to $213mm in 2023. Yes, we lost Rodon, Judge, and Correaberg, but we shored up the SP, and improved the BP and the OF. Sure, the new guys could flop, but we have to trust that if the FO spent $40mm more for 2023, it was for the net improvement of the team.

We did considerably better than "treading water". We will noticeably improve in 2023. Life is too short to bitch about things over which we have no control.

 

[tzill]

Per Spotrac, we expanded the payroll from $172mm in 2022 to $213mm in 2023. Yes, we lost Rodon, Judge, and Correaberg, but we shored up the SP, and improved the BP and the OF. Sure, the new guys could flop, but we have to trust that if the FO spent $40mm more for 2023, it was for the net improvement of the team.

We did considerably better than "treading water". We will noticeably improve in 2023. Life is too short to bitch about things over which we have no control.

 

[Mays-Fan]

View attachment 318295

Can I come over and #### your sister?