2023 Rosterbation

[tzill]

Wow, 13 years. That seems incredibly long for a contract. I get the feeling that it will be fun for the first half of the deal.

It will be fun. It will also probably justify itself in the first seven years.

another sneaky value play by FZ.

dude is truly playing 5D chess

 

[Mays-Fan]

We need to get 35-40 WAR out of this contract.

We need to get at least 2 WCs out of this contract.

 

[calsnowskier]

...and another quality reliever. Do not underestimate the value of FYWW. Esp since we will playing in so many more critical games now.

Gonna be a fun ride here.

Oh, I just ASSUME we will still sign AT LEAST 3 more bully arms. That is a requirement.

 

[Mays-Fan]

It will be interesting to see what we do with Crawford now.

On a separate note, hopefully this will provide incentive to everyone to raise their games. The FO is in it to win it, so everyone else should be, too.

And we still have $20mm or so to fill some holes.

 

[calsnowskier]

We need to get at least 2 WCs out of this contract.

Just to match the bar set by Zito.

 

[calsnowskier]

It will be interesting to see what we do with Crawford now.

I think Schmitt might have something to say about that. If he has a strong spring, that might put Craw/Correa at 2B. Kinda the same with Villar. If they don’t, that Craw/Correa will take 3B.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Just to match the bar set by Zito.

Somehow, I don't see CC sitting out his first one.

His performance in the NLCS against the Cards in 2012 made up for a hell of a lot, though.

 

[calsnowskier]

Somehow, I don't see CC sitting out his first one.

His performance in the NLCS against the Cards in 2012 made up for a hell of a lot, though.

Rent earned his contract in game 5.

Zito earned his in game 1.

 

[msgkings322]

Carlos Correa contract…is…woof. But it may be fun for a couple years.

FZ had to overpay or risk getting lynched for not bringing in anyone major. So he overpaid. So what, they have the money and they say they want to compete. This is part of that.

Massive overpay though my goodness.

OK, skipping past the money, they brought in some real talent this offseason. Like always, if we get some luck and things like Bart continuing to develop and Harrison being useful and so on, maybe it's a playoff team.

 

[msgkings322]

It will be fun. It will also probably justify itself in the first seven years.

another sneaky value play by FZ.

dude is truly playing 5D chess

It's so long that by year 10 $35 mil won't be that big a number LOL

 

[calsnowskier]

It's so long that by year 10 $35 mil won't be that big a number LOL

Bonds made about 6M a year and he was the highest paid in the game. Sports inflation ain’t no joke.

 

[pachyderm]

Interesting development.

 

[Hangman]

13 years? he will be 42 when he is done with it. And no opt outs? So just plain stuck with it? It seems to be way too much to me and looks of desperation

 

[tzill]

FZ had to overpay or risk getting lynched for not bringing in anyone major. So he overpaid. So what, they have the money and they say they want to compete. This is part of that.

Massive overpay though my goodness.

OK, skipping past the money, they brought in some real talent this offseason. Like always, if we get some luck and things like Bart continuing to develop and Harrison being useful and so on, maybe it's a playoff team.

I don't think it was an overpay. The fact that a player is worth whatever he can get aside, at $9M/WAR we need about 38-40 WAR over the length of the contract. He's a 5-7 WAR player when healthy and he's in his prime. Say we get 30 WAR over the next five years (not unreasonable). That leaves 8 years starting with his age 33 season to get 8-10 WAR.

Now factor in inflation (WAR likely to be $10M or $11M per year at that point) and its actually LIKELY to be a net positive contract. More so if he has an MVP type season or two (8-10 WAR).

Two big assumptions: he will continue to be an elite player for the next five years and he won't suffer a big injury.

Bottom line: it was a sneaky smart deal likely to produce more value than we paid for. Well done, FZ.

NOW, BRING ME CONFORTO

 

[tzill]

It's so long that by year 10 $35 mil won't be that big a number LOL

Sure, that's a concern. Two things though:
1. How much value did he provide in years 1-9? 45 WAR? 50 WAR? If so, anything else is gravy.
2. Inflation will make this contract look less massive in 5 years. Even more so in 10 years.

I'm so glad I paid attention in Econ when we discussed Net Present Value.

 

[tzill]

13 years? he will be 42 when he is done with it. And no opt outs? So just plain stuck with it? It seems to be way too much to me and looks of desperation

He'll be paid through his age 40 season. Again, looking at the production over the last couple of years is missing the point. If it goes as it should, he'll have earned that money by the time he's 36. Add in the additional butts in seats, jerseys, beers, etc. The only downside I can see at the end of the contract is the opportunity cost of the roster spot. He'd REALLY have to regress/get injured for that to be much of a factor considering we have the DH in the NL now.

 

[tzill]

One note:

It is a minor detail but there was no QO attached to Carlos Correa, so we do not lose a compensatory pick in signing him.

 

[LHG]

I don't think it was an overpay. The fact that a player is worth whatever he can get aside, at $9M/WAR we need about 38-40 WAR over the length of the contract. He's a 5-7 WAR player when healthy and he's in his prime. Say we get 30 WAR over the next five years (not unreasonable). That leaves 8 years starting with his age 33 season to get 8-10 WAR.

Now factor in inflation (WAR likely to be $10M or $11M per year at that point) and its actually LIKELY to be a net positive contract. More so if he has an MVP type season or two (8-10 WAR).

Two big assumptions: he will continue to be an elite player for the next five years and he won't suffer a big injury.

Bottom line: it was a sneaky smart deal likely to produce more value than we paid for. Well done, FZ.

NOW, BRING ME CONFORTO

Dude, you tend to over value players' WAR capabilities. Correa has only hit or exceeded 6 WAR in 3 seasons - 2016 (7.0), 2017 (6.7) and 2021 (7.2). He is certainly capable of a season of 6 WAR or higher but its more the exception than the norm. In 8 seasons, his career WAR is 39.5. That comes out to an average of 4.9 per season. Based upon his average, he'll hit 30 WAR in his 6th season.
I think his contract will still pay for itself but it will take longer than you think. And it will probably be an albatross to the team toward the end of the deal. Hopefully, there will be a couple of trophies in those 1st 6 seasons so it won't be a frustrating albatross.

 

[tzill]

Dude, you tend to over value players' WAR capabilities. Correa has only hit or exceeded 6 WAR in 3 seasons - 2016 (7.0), 2017 (6.7) and 2021 (7.2). He is certainly capable of a season of 6 WAR or higher but its more the exception than the norm. In 8 seasons, his career WAR is 39.5. That comes out to an average of 4.9 per season. Based upon his average, he'll hit 30 WAR in his 6th season.
I think his contract will still pay for itself but it will take longer than you think. And it will probably be an albatross to the team toward the end of the deal. Hopefully, there will be a couple of trophies in those 1st 6 seasons so it won't be a frustrating albatross.

I think that's a fair POV. But let me disagree a bit. Looking at years he was below 6 WAR:

2015 - rookie year, 20 years old, still produced 4.8
2018 - only played in 110 games, HBP damaged his hand, only 3.1
2019 - only 75 games, Covid x2, 3.7
2020 - short season, projects to about 5
2022 - missed 25 games, 5.4

So if we throw out his rookie year and project 2020, hes got an average of 5.7. I used 6 as a round number but let's go with 5.5

7 years to justify the contract. 6 years of gravy. It's only an albatross if you:
1. forget the previous production and/or
2. focus on the opportunity cost of the roster spot.

I'm not very worried.

 

[LHG]

I think that's a fair POV. But let me disagree a bit. Looking at years he was below 6 WAR:

2015 - rookie year, 20 years old, still produced 4.8
2018 - only played in 110 games, HBP damaged his hand, only 3.1
2019 - only 75 games, Covid x2, 3.7
2020 - short season, projects to about 5
2022 - missed 25 games, 5.4

So if we throw out his rookie year and project 2020, hes got an average of 5.7. I used 6 as a round number but let's go with 5.5

7 years to justify the contract. 6 years of gravy. It's only an albatross if you:
1. forget the previous production and/or
2. focus on the opportunity cost of the roster spot.

I'm not very worried.

Yes, most of those years were due to issues outside of his control, but your model assumes that won't happen (i.e. injuries or other issues that will reduce playing time) in the next 6 years.

I do disagree about the two reasons it would be an albatross. If there are no WS trophies in those 1st 6 to 8 seasons, his production declines, and his deal is preventing the team from properly rebuilding/building a competitive team, then previous production won't matter at that point. But I do concede I'm getting way ahead of this whole thing. He's a very good player. We should all be excited that he is now a Giant.