2023 Rosterbation

[LHG]

From Grant Brisbee today:

Locks for the 26 man

C — Joey Bart

INF — Wilmer Flores
INF — Thairo Estrada
INF — Brandon Crawford
INF — J.D. Davis

OF — Mike Yastrzemski
OF — Austin Slater

SP — Logan Webb
SP — Alex Cobb
SP — Alex Wood
SP — Anthony DeSclafani

RP — Camilo Doval
RP — John Brebbia
RP — Tyler Rogers
RP — Jarlin García


Locks for the 40 man

SP/RP — Sean Hjelle
SP/RP — Jakob Junis
RP — Randy Rodríguez
RP — Cole Waites
INF — David Villar
OF — Heliot Ramos

Probable for the 40 man
RP — Gregory Santos
RP — Scott Alexander
RP — Thomas Szapucki
SP/RP — Sam Long
OF — Luis González
OF — LaMonte Wade, Jr

Maybe the 40 man

RP — Shelby Miller
INF — Donovan Walton
INF — Tommy La Stella

Cuttable

RP — Zack Littell
RP — Mauricio Llovera
RP — Sam Delaplane
RP — Yunior Marte
RP — Luis Ortíz
RP — Andrew Vasquez
RP — Alex Young
C — Ford Proctor
C — Austin Wynns
INF/OF — Taylor Jones
INF — Jason Vosler
INF — Colton Welker
OF — Austin Dean
OF — Bryce Johnson

15 active locks, 6 forty man locks. Thats 21
Luciano makes 22 (he'll be added), Matos likely to be added, thats 23.
Add the six probables and you have 29.

Eleven likely open spots.

2023 Estimated payroll per MLBTR

Brandon Crawford	$16M
Alex Wood	$12.5M
Anthony DeSclafani	$12M
Tommy La Stella	$11.5M
Alex Cobb	$9M
Wilmer Flores	$6.5M
Mike Yastrzemski	$5.7M
Evan Longoria	$5M
Logan Webb	$4.8M
J.D. Davis	$3.8M
Jakob Junis	$3.3M
Austin Slater	$2.7M
Thairo Estrada	$2.4M
Jarlin García	$2.4M
John Brebbia	$1.9M
Tyler Rogers	$1.8M
Joey Bart	$800K
Camilo Doval	$800K
Total	$102.9M

$103 in commitments with 11 spots to fill. A couple will be MLM (Waites? Villar?). A couple might be low cost (LWJ?). Call it five spots filled this way. $110M with six open spots.

Assume about $180M budget (pre COVID). One position player FA and a Rodon replacement (or Rodon!!).

If we go to $200M, 2 position players plus an ace, maybe a reliever.

A boy can dream.

Some surprises. I would expect Alexander to be at least a 40 man roster lock. I would also think that Llovera and Vosler would be 40 man roster locks. Weird that Walton would be higher than those two.
And why is Shelby Miller even on the list? No other free agents are listed.

 

[calsnowskier]

I don’t think Alexander has any options, so he is a 26 or nothing. I also think Villar is a lock. He will get a LOT of play between 3B and 1B (maybe the rare 2B start?). If his D becomes too much of an issue, Adam Duvall his ass and put him in left. His bat is too big not to have SOMEWHERE.

I also don’t think Yaz is a lock. “Probable”, maybe. But my surprise level after it is announced he was not tendered a contracts is right up there with the news reporting another crime against humanity by Trump. (Meaning I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Yaz were non-tendered)

 

[tzill]

The Giants 40-man roster now stands at 37 with 4 players becoming free agents today. That’ll change with the opt-out/option decisions on Carlos Rodón/Evan Longoria. They currently have 8 players on the 60-day IL.

 

[LHG]

The Giants 40-man roster now stands at 37 with 4 players becoming free agents today. That’ll change with the opt-out/option decisions on Carlos Rodón/Evan Longoria. They currently have 8 players on the 60-day IL.

Shouldn't it be 35 with Cotton already dfa'd and the 40 man roster was at 40 at the end of the season (since you are not counting 60 day IL guys yet)?

 

[tzill]

Shouldn't it be 35 with Cotton already dfa'd and the 40 man roster was at 40 at the end of the season (since you are not counting 60 day IL guys yet)?

No, outrighting Cotton brought them down to 39. Álvarez/Belt were on the 60-day IL, so they weren't officially on the 40-man at the end of the year. Pederson/Miller were.

 

[LHG]

No, outrighting Cotton brought them down to 39. Álvarez/Belt were on the 60-day IL, so they weren't officially on the 40-man at the end of the year. Pederson/Miller were.

Right. I forgot that those two were on the 60 day.

 

[tzill]

Surprising nobody, Rodon opted out. We'll give him the QO, which will net us a comp pick if he signs with another team.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Surprising nobody, Rodon opted out. We'll give him the QO, which will net us a comp pick if he signs with another team.

In the big picture, this was a good deal for us, no? We got a very good year out of Rodon, a #1 rotation guy, and, when he (presumably) leaves, we get a comp pick. All for $22.5 mm.

Am I missing something? Any downside to burning a QO on a guy who leaves?

 

[tzill]

No downside. Worst case, it offsets a comp pick we'd have to give up to sign another FA with an attached QO.

Of course, we could always just sign the guy to 5/125...

But that's not FZ's MO. I feel like Bassitt is a foregone conclusion. Probably 2/40 with an opt out.

 

[tzill]

My WAG on what we end up with:

Judge
Bassitt
Longo

We'll be in on all the SS FAs (Correa, Turner, Swanson, Bogaerts) but we won't close on one.

Nobody will care because JUDGE.

We'll also aggressively pursue Ohtani.

 

[calsnowskier]

My WAG on what we end up with:

Judge
Bassitt
Longo

We'll be in on all the SS FAs (Correa, Turner, Swanson, Bogaerts) but we won't close on one.

Nobody will care because JUDGE.

We'll also aggressively pursue Ohtani.

I doubt Ohtani will move this off-season. I think he will be moved either at the deadline in ‘23 or in the ‘23/‘24 off season.

 

[LHG]

I doubt Ohtani will move this off-season. I think he will be moved either at the deadline in ‘23 or in the ‘23/‘24 off season.

The talk from the Angels' FO is that Ohtani will not be traded. Now that could just be leveraging to get a better deal but I think that they are being honest when they say that they will not trade him this offseason. Of course, that could all change if another team makes an offer that they cannot refuse. Doubt that would be the Giants, though.

 

[calsnowskier]

The talk from the Angels' FO is that Ohtani will not be traded. Now that could just be leveraging to get a better deal but I think that they are being honest when they say that they will not trade him this offseason. Of course, that could all change if another team makes an offer that they cannot refuse. Doubt that would be the Giants, though.

To play some devil’s advocate, though…

Ohtani’s comments after the season will not endear him to the FO. Maybe they will look to move him because he has voiced his displeasure with the situation.

Just a factor to keep in mind…

 

[LHG]

To play some devil’s advocate, though…

Ohtani’s comments after the season will not endear him to the FO. Maybe they will look to move him because he has voiced his displeasure with the situation.

Just a factor to keep in mind…

Except that the FO's most recent comments came after Ohtani's. Again, they could just be bluffing to drive up the price that another team would be willing to give for him but I think he'll be an Angel come Opening Day 2023. Now, will he be one on August 1st, 2023, that is a lot more murky.

 

[LHG]

Nick Anderson is available. I wonder if the Giants will pick him up with the hope that he can fully recover from his injuries and perform at his peak levels.

Nick Anderson Clears Waivers, Elects Free Agency

November 10: Anderson has cleared waivers and elected free agency, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. November 9: The …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

 

[tzill]

I doubt Ohtani will move this off-season. I think he will be moved either at the deadline in ‘23 or in the ‘23/‘24 off season.

I think he'll be a deadline deal. And it'll hurt

 

[tzill]

Nick Anderson is available. I wonder if the Giants will pick him up with the hope that he can fully recover from his injuries and perform at his peak levels.

Nick Anderson Clears Waivers, Elects Free Agency

November 10: Anderson has cleared waivers and elected free agency, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. November 9: The …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Seems like he's one of those guys FZ would sign to a two year deal, expecting not much in the first year and a cheap bullpen piece in the second.

 

[LHG]

Seems like he's one of those guys FZ would sign to a two year deal, expecting not much in the first year and a cheap bullpen piece in the second.

He is an intriguing pitcher but he is not young.

 

[tzill]

Farhan Zaidi said LaMonte Wade Jr. will be part of group offered contracts in arbitration this month. Said underlying metrics were good and they expect him to benefit from new shift rules and being fully healthy.

MLB Trade Rumors estimates Wade will earn $1.4 million in arbitration. That’s a small price to pay for someone with as much upside as Wade showed in 2021.

With Wade rostered, the Giants have three first basemen in him, J.D. Davis and Wilmer Flores. Wade also plays outfield, where Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater are likely to return.

The other 12 arbitration-eligible Giants are Yastrzemski, Slater, Davis, Logan Webb, John Brebbia, Thairo Estrada, Tyler Rogers, Zack Littell, Jharel Cotton, Jakob Junis, Jarlin García and Scott Alexander.

 

[LHG]

Farhan Zaidi said LaMonte Wade Jr. will be part of group offered contracts in arbitration this month. Said underlying metrics were good and they expect him to benefit from new shift rules and being fully healthy.

MLB Trade Rumors estimates Wade will earn $1.4 million in arbitration. That’s a small price to pay for someone with as much upside as Wade showed in 2021.

With Wade rostered, the Giants have three first basemen in him, J.D. Davis and Wilmer Flores. Wade also plays outfield, where Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater are likely to return.

The other 12 arbitration-eligible Giants are Yastrzemski, Slater, Davis, Logan Webb, John Brebbia, Thairo Estrada, Tyler Rogers, Zack Littell, Jharel Cotton, Jakob Junis, Jarlin García and Scott Alexander.

That is a lot of arbitration eligible players but this seems to be a league wide thing. Except Littell and Cotton won't be going through arbitration since they are no longer on the 40 man roster.

With so many players in arbitration, I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of guys get non-tendered that seem like they should. Unfortunately, I wouldn't be surprised if 1 or 2 of Davis, Junis, Garcia, Alexander or Rogers get non-tendered. I'd rather Wade get non-tendered than Davis but wouldn't be surprised if it happens that way.