2023 Rosterbation

[calsnowskier]

That is a lot of arbitration eligible players but this seems to be a league wide thing. Except Littell and Cotton won't be going through arbitration since they are no longer on the 40 man roster.

With so many players in arbitration, I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of guys get non-tendered that seem like they should. Unfortunately, I wouldn't be surprised if 1 or 2 of Davis, Junis, Garcia, Alexander or Rogers get non-tendered. I'd rather Wade get non-tendered than Davis but wouldn't be surprised if it happens that way.

I don’t really understand the lack of love for Davis. Dude was nailz in his time with us last year. I think he deserves at least 30% of the 1B reps in ‘23.

 

[tzill]

HOW DARE YOU SLANDER JACOB JUNIS!!

This antisemitism will not stand.

 

[tzill]

Speaking of, the Rays declined Kevin Kiermaier's option.

GET ON IT FZ.

 

[LHG]

Speaking of, the Rays declined Kevin Kiermaier's option.

GET ON IT FZ.

Then Yaz needs to be non-tendered. Seems he would be redundant at that point.

 

[LHG]

I don’t really understand the lack of love for Davis. Dude was nailz in his time with us last year. I think he deserves at least 30% of the 1B reps in ‘23.

Let's put it this way, the same people that sat Davis a lot were also the same people that insisted Pederson was the best defensive option in left field for most of the season while LaStella was the regular DH.

 

[tzill]

Then Yaz needs to be non-tendered. Seems he would be redundant at that point.

I see your point. I could see a world where both make the team though.

If I had to choose one over the other, I'd take Yaz.

 

[calsnowskier]

Speaking of, the Rays declined Kevin Kiermaier's option.

GET ON IT FZ.

Older player whose defense has been trending badly the last few years. And he never really had a bat.

Pass.

 

[tzill]

Older player whose defense has been trending badly the last few years. And he never really had a bat.

Pass.

Yeah, I'd prefer Yaz but I still think Kier's D is elite.

 

[LHG]

Older player whose defense has been trending badly the last few years. And he never really had a bat.

Pass.

Yeah, I'd prefer Yaz but I still think Kier's D is elite.

I think cal makes a good point. Kiermaier's DWAR, per BBRef, was 0.4 in 63 games. Now we could talk about the subjectivity of defensive metrics but elite defense should warrant a larger number, regardless of how precise or non precise that number is. In 2021, when he got into 122 games, it was 1.6. He played in 49 games in the abbreviated 2020 season and had a 1.1 DWAR that year. The high water mark for him was 4.6 in 2015, when he played in 151 games. His reputation isn't current.
And let's talk about the number of games he is healthy enough to play in. The past 5 seasons has seen him play in 63, 122, 49, 129 and 88 games. He was probably the most healthy in 2020, over the last 5 seasons. Since he debuted very late in 2013, he's only appeared in 100 games in 5 seasons. Three of those 5 were at the start of his career.
Bottom line, his bat has never been that good (except in 2014 and 2017), he cannot stay healthy, his defense is slipping and he will turn 33 less than a month into the 2023 season. Probably not the best pick up the Giants could do to get younger and more athletic. Now watch him land elsewhere, stay healthy the whole season and have the best season of his career offensively.

 

[LHG]

To get an idea on how messed up the Giants are right now, consider the top 5 bats the Giants employed this year, based on OPS. I'll remove Austin Dean (whom the FO also decided to do) from this list because he only got 9 plate appearances. Here are the top 5:
1. Joc Pederson - .874 OPS in 380 plate appearances. We all know about Pederson's offensive season, but we also know of his defensive ineptitude. It was so bad that BBRef shows his overall WAR at 1.3. Now his DWAR this year (-2.1) was the worst of his career. So it may be fair to say he won't always be that bad and could be useful to keep in the field, if re-signed. However, we also need to consider that he is going to be 31 next year, so his defense won't necessarily get better and he's also pretty much said that he has no intention of getting into better shape. He also hit 70 points above his career OPS so there is a good chance that 2023 won't be as good at the plate.
2. JD Davis - .857 OPS in 137 plate appearances. Davis did nothing but hit since coming over in the Ruf trade. However, he was often on the bench, against both righties and lefties, in favor of players hitting far worse than him (see LaStella, Tommy as reference). Now Davis is no defensive stalwart either, so a team with both him and Pederson really puts the Giants back in the "collection of hitters with defensive ineptitude" mode but Davis at least kept his DWAR in 2022 under -1. He also posted an OPS close to 68 points above his career average but he's only had one year with the Mets where he got a chance to play regularly. Coincidentally, he also had a career year in OPS (.897) that year.
3. Jason Vosler - .812 OPS in 111 plate appearances. Here is the spot where Dean's .819 OPS would land but instead we get Vosler. Prior to his late season cooling off, Vosler was usually #1 or #2 on this list. It was easy to do, too, when he was stuck at AAA for extended periods of time while guys like Wade and Mercedes were getting ABs. The guy got moved back and forth between SF and Sac 5 times and yet he hit in just about every chance he got with the Giants. Yet the conversation about him isn't, "how do we get him more playing time". Instead, its, "will he be on the roster by the time Opening Day 2023 comes around". It should be noted that he is not young for a prospect (just turned 29 at the end of the season) and his DWAR was also in the negative (-0.7), which, much like Pederson, nearly negated his offensive contributions.
4. David Villar - .787 OPS in 181 plate appearances. It took the Giants their sweet time to call this guy up. And he struggled at first when he finally got the call. However, he ended the year on a strong note, slashing .269/.327/.570 in Sept/Oct. He post a positive DWAR (0.2) while playing 3 positions, so that is some good news. He will also be 26 in 2023, which makes him the youngest on this list.
5. Austin Slater - .774 OPS in 325 plate appearances. I think we finally have an idea of Slater's potential. He hits well enough to be a platoon guy in the outfield. Set to turn 30 next month, Slater has been a bit of an up and down hitter. He looked okay in 2017 and 2019, sandwiching a poor offensive season in 2018. He followed that up with a great 2020 season, poor 2021 season and good 2022 season. He is a good 4th outfielder to have around. Except, according to BBRef, his defense isn't all that great either. His DWAR in 2022 was the worst of his career (-0.7) but he's not been better than 0.0 in any year of his career and carries a negative -2.0 overall. He is hardly awful but not exactly good either with the glove.

From the way I see it, the Giants have to get younger, hit better and play better defensive. That is a tall task for the FO for 2023, especially when they want to gamble with some many of the 2022 pieces (Pederson, LaStella, Yastrzemski, Wade, etc) getting better.

 

[LHG]

Looks like the Giants offered QOs to both Rodon and Pederson.

 

[calsnowskier]

Looks like the Giants offered QOs to both Rodon and Pederson.

Offering it to Pedo is asinine. He just isn’t that good. And I suspect that guarantees he comes back.

 

[tzill]

Offering it to Pedo is asinine. He just isn’t that good. And I suspect that guarantees he comes back.

I dunno. As a DH who will get an occasion start at 1b, he makes some sense.

 

[tzill]

Ross Stripling and Jameson Taillon were not issued a QO by their respective teams. I'd guess that this makes them more appealing to the Giants than some of the lower-end pitchers with a QO.

 

[LHG]

Offering it to Pedo is asinine. He just isn’t that good. And I suspect that guarantees he comes back.

The decisions this FO makes seems to frequent the asinine category with greater frequency.
If he accepts, this will only look good if he replicates 2022 (or exceeds it) while stuck solely at the DH spot.

 

[tzill]

I think he could actually exceed his 2021 season by dint of not playing in the OF.

144 OPS+
1.3 WAR
-2.1 dWAR

reduce that dWAR to zero and you've got a 3 WAR player. Good value at $19M.

 

[LHG]

I think he could actually exceed his 2021 season by dint of not playing in the OF.

144 OPS+
1.3 WAR
-2.1 dWAR

reduce that dWAR to zero and you've got a 3 WAR player. Good value at $19M.

The thing about WAR is that its not simply removing the negative WAR (in this case, DWAR) from the positive WAR. Pederson's OWAR was 2.8, according to BBRef. In his case, though, it is still close.

 

[tzill]

The thing about WAR is that its not simply removing the negative WAR (in this case, DWAR) from the positive WAR. Pederson's OWAR was 2.8, according to BBRef. In his case, though, it is still close.

understood. Its not a linear thing. I was estimating.

 

[calsnowskier]

The decisions this FO makes seems to frequent the asinine category with greater frequency.
If he accepts, this will only look good if he replicates 2022 (or exceeds it) while stuck solely at the DH spot.

But there is zero evidence that they plan on using him in an exclusively DH role (or, as tz projects, some time at 1B). He was used in the field too many times in ‘22 that simply made no sense. To expect anything different would be lunacy.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I think he could actually exceed his 2021 season by dint of not playing in the OF.

144 OPS+
1.3 WAR
-2.1 dWAR

reduce that dWAR to zero and you've got a 3 WAR player. Good value at $19M.

Just throwing this out there - a good LHH, like Jocko, would have added value if paired with a good RHH, say, ohhh...Aaron Judge?