2018 Season Games and Confidence of games.

[Red_Alert]

Let's have a look at a previous transition.

2007 HWSNBN (5-7)
2008 Blopleeny (9-4) First year Head Coach. Gator Bowl win over Clemson.

Nebraska 5 year average recruiting ranking in 2008: 20th
The talent was there.

Starting QB 2008: Joe Ganz (a 2004 2 star recruit)
Experience: Ganz had just 3 starts in November 2007 after Sam Keller got injured.

 

[FNG]

So five of us did this so far. Two thing from this.

1. Arkon is a WILL win game.
2. @ Ohio State is a WON"T win game.

 

[Red_Alert]

So five of us did this so far. Two thing from this.

1. Arkon is a WILL win game.
2. @ Ohio State is a WON"T win game.

Yeah. Ohio St will likely be Nebraska's 2008 game against Oklahoma (28-62). OU finished the season ranked #5

The question is if there will be a Nebraska 2008 game against Missouri (17-52)? Mizzou finished the season ranked #16

If so....Michigan or Wisconsin seem like the likely choices.

 

[tometom]

Let's have a look at a previous transition.

2007 HWSNBN (5-7)
2008 Blopleeny (9-4) First year Head Coach. Gator Bowl win over Clemson.

Nebraska 5 year average recruiting ranking in 2008: 20th
The talent was there.

Starting QB 2008: Joe Ganz (a 2004 2 star recruit)
Experience: Ganz had just 3 starts in November 2007 after Sam Keller got injured.

if memory serves, TO convinced Bo to keep some of the offensive staff, which made the offense transition easier. SF has a much bigger challenge as he is transitioning everything. also, without looking, i'm going to guess Bo got a much easier schedule year 1 than what SF is getting.

also, not to agree with a hawkeye fan or anything. but the talent question comes in more when you compare that team to this year. i don't have a great recollection of who we thought might be NFL talent in that transition year (maybe one of you can), but you can look back and see who did get drafted. Would you say anyone on this team right now will be a 4th round draft pick or higher?

trying to think here:
Suh - didn't see that coming, wasn't he pretty nonexistant in 2007?
Prince - same as Suh, Bo switched him from RB to DB, right?
Helu - i don't recall him getting significant time his freshman year
Niles Paul - didn't really even play as a freshmen
Dillard - again, don't remember him being anything special

well, nevermind, i think i stand corrected. looking at the list, i honestly don't recall thinking we had anyone really draftable after the 2007 season.

 

[Red_Alert]

if memory serves, TO convinced Bo to keep some of the offensive staff, which made the offense transition easier. SF has a much bigger challenge as he is transitioning everything. also, without looking, i'm going to guess Bo got a much easier schedule year 1 than what SF is getting.

also, not to agree with a hawkeye fan or anything. but the talent question comes in more when you compare that team to this year. i don't have a great recollection of who we thought might be NFL talent in that transition year (maybe one of you can), but you can look back and see who did get drafted. Would you say anyone on this team right now will be a 4th round draft pick or higher?

trying to think here:
Suh - didn't see that coming, wasn't he pretty nonexistant in 2007?
Prince - same as Suh, Bo switched him from RB to DB, right?
Helu - i don't recall him getting significant time his freshman year
Niles Paul - didn't really even play as a freshmen
Dillard - again, don't remember him being anything special

well, nevermind, i think i stand corrected. looking at the list, i honestly don't recall thinking we had anyone really draftable after the 2007 season.

Schedule is VERY compatible. Maybe tougher in 2008

Western Mich (9-4) (MAC) W (49-22)
San Jose St (6-6) (WAC) W (35-12)
New Mex St (3-9) (WAC) W (38-7)
Virginia Tech (10-4) (ACC) L (30-35) Won Orange Bowl. Final Poll #15
Missouri (10-4) (Big 12) L (17-52) Won Alamo Bowl over Northwestern. Final Poll #19
TX Tech (11-2) (Big 12) L (31-37) Final Poll #12
Iowa St (2-10) (Big 12) W (35-7)
Baylor (4-8) (Big 12) W (32-20)
Oklahoma (12-2) (Big 12) L (28-62) Final Poll #5
Kansas (8-5) (Big 12) W (45-35) Won Insight Bowl over Minnesota
Colorado (5-7) (Big 12) W (40-31)

Within one score in losses to #15 VA Tech and #12 Texas Tech

 

[Red_Alert]

2018 Schedule/Last seasons Record and Final Ranking

Akron (7-7) NR
Colorado (5-7) NR
Troy (11-2) ARV
Michigan (8-5) NR
Purdue (7-6) NR
Wisconsin (13-1) #7
N'Western (10-3) #17
Minnesota (5-7) NR
Ohio St (12-2) #5
Illinois (2-10) NR
Mich St (10-3) #15
Iowa (8-5) NR

4 ranked teams

 

[tometom]

i don't know, i'd give 2018 over 2008. just quickly:
OOC (except VT): Akron>NM, Colorado P5>San Jose G5, Troy = western Mich
Illinois = Iowa State, Purdue > Baylor, Minnesota = Colorado
VA Tech, Missouri, Tx Tech, OK are comparable to Wiscy, Mich St, Northwestern, Ohio State. maybe N'western less than one of those other 4.
Michigan and Iowa > Kansas.
one extra game in 2018.

pretty much everything seems even or harder in 2018 to me.

 

[Red_Alert]

i don't know, i'd give 2018 over 2008. just quickly:
OOC (except VT): Akron>NM, Colorado P5>San Jose G5, Troy = western Mich
Illinois = Iowa State, Purdue > Baylor, Minnesota = Colorado
VA Tech, Missouri, Tx Tech, OK are comparable to Wiscy, Mich St, Northwestern, Ohio State. maybe N'western less than one of those other 4.
Michigan and Iowa > Kansas.
one extra game in 2018.

pretty much everything seems even or harder in 2018 to me.

I'll agree with even.

What about coaching?

Blopleeny: Previous defensive coordinator. ZERO head coaching experience (other than interim in Alamo Bowl).
Scott Frost: Previous offensive coordinator. 2 years head coaching experience.

Frost has been tasked with turning a program around before. UCF was winless (0-12) when he stepped on campus. He won 6 games as a first time head coach. I'd assume there were similar issues to Nebraska (maybe worse) as to why UCF sucked.
I also assume there were trials and errors that he learned from his first season that he can apply here at Nebraska.

If I were in Vegas I'd put $1000 on the over 6 without thought.

 

[Red_Alert]

Wins 2008 opponents vs 2017 opponents

13 Wins: NA/Wisconsin (0-1)
12 Wins: Oklahoma/Ohio St (1-1)
11 Wins: Texas Tech/Troy (1-1)
10 Wins: Va Tech, Missouri/Northwestern, Michigan St (2-2)
..............................(4-5 with 10 wins or more).....................................
9 Wins.: Western Michigan/NA (1-0)
8 Wins.: Kansas/Michigan, Iowa (1-2)
7 Wins.: Clemson/Akron, Purdue (1-2)
6 Wins.: San Jose St/NA (1-0)
.............................(4-6 with 6 to 9 wins)...............................................
5 Wins.: Colorado/Colorado, Minnesota (1-2)
4 Wins.: Baylor/NA (1-0)
3 Wins.: New Mexico St/NA (1-0)
2 Wins.: Iowa St/Illinois (1-1)
..............................(4-3) with 5 wins or less)...................................

Wisconsin did not play Penn St, Michigan St, or Ohio St in regular season.
Troy beat LSU (9-4) in Death Valley at night
I added Clemson (Nebraska Bowl win) to make each 12 teams.

I do have to give 2018 a slightly tougher SOS than 2008.
If quality of opponent in 2018 is similar to their 2017 records, then 2018 has two more mid-tier teams and one more Top tier team.

 

[tometom]

I'll agree with even.

What about coaching?

Blopleeny: Previous defensive coordinator. ZERO head coaching experience (other than interim in Alamo Bowl).
Scott Frost: Previous offensive coordinator. 2 years head coaching experience.

Frost has been tasked with turning a program around before. UCF was winless (0-12) when he stepped on campus. He won 6 games as a first time head coach. I'd assume there were similar issues to Nebraska (maybe worse) as to why UCF sucked.
I also assume there were trials and errors that he learned from his first season that he can apply here at Nebraska.

If I were in Vegas I'd put $1000 on the over 6 without thought.

oh, i completely agree with you on coaching.

 

[Red_Alert]

Also add that Frost brought his staff with him. Logistically (being on the same page) that is a bonus.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

The big difference between the 2 seasons you guys are comparing is the games played on the road.

In 2008 we had 8 home games, 4 road games. 2 of those road games were against Baylor and KState, both of which failed to reach .500 on the season.

This year we play 5 opponents on the road and all 5 fall into the decent to very good range.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

But seriously, I don’t want to spend much time comparing 2008 to 2018 because plain and simply as I can put it, we have a coach in 2018 who has spent his entire career winning.

Not just winning games........winning Championships. Competing for Championships. Playing at a high level in the spot light. Learning under some of the best coaches to ever coach football.

This coach isn’t going to keep pounding a square peg into a round hole because his ego actually fits in his head. If something isn’t working, at any point, Scott Frost will innovate. He will study and adapt, and he will win.

Frost is a competitor. Bo gave off the vibe that he was a competitor, but the reality of it was he was just a stubborn son of a bitch. Yea he wanted to win, but by God he was only going to win doing it the way that everyone said he shouldn’t do it.

 

[tometom]

do we need another thread, but I'd really like to hear other's thoughts on this question:

Would you say anyone on this team right now will be a 4th round draft pick or higher?

particularly for guys that were already here that Frost&Co are going to be coaching up. Outside of WRs of course. We know we got some talent there, Morgan, Spielman, etc.

Lamar Jackson going to make a big jump? maybe Freedom finally going to live up to what we saw like 3 years ago?
I feel like the Davis twins could get there.

on offense, i think it's o-line. i feel like Farmer, Foster, Jaimes might get it done.

 

[it'sHuskers4me]

Stat..

jimHairbawl has less wins in his first 3 years at Michigan than blopleeny did in his first 3 years at Nebraska.

jimhairbawl (28-11)
blopleeny (29-12)

That being said, Michigan 'should' be favored against Nebraska being they are at home, and a 4th year coach against a 1st year coach.

I saw an Ohio State fan said that Jim Harbaugh is changing his name to Owen Three this year.

 

[Skerpokes]

After Urban Meyer leaving and watching UCF/Memphis I’m gonna say 9-3.

We lose to Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State

I also don’t take myself to seriously and fuck Ohio State

Fuck Iowa too

 

[Red_Alert]

Don't look good for Urbs.

He's on suspension while the university investigates. He's a Title IX employee so required to report these types of incidents.
His latest contract specifically says he's required to report these types of incidents or he can be fired with cause.


There may be no proof his wife told him, but everybody knows he had to know.

Remember how bad Ohio St was the year they had an interim after Tressel stepped down? Blopleeny even beat them. That was the night he blew up on the fans for leaving early.

I move Ohio St to a "might".

 

[Red_Alert]

OK. I actually did my homework...

In the spirit of FNG's plorst.....

Akron - CANCELLED
Colorado - Might
Troy - Might
@ Michigan - Might
Purdue - Will
@ Wisconsin - Might
@ Northwestern - Will
Minnesota - Will
@ Ohio State - Won't
Illinois - Will
Michigan State - Might
@ Iowa - Might

Will 4, Should 0, Might 6, Won't 1

(2-4) on 'Mights'

(6-5) Overall

FIFM

SOOOO.....Nebraska/Iowa St on December 1st?

Assuming neither are in their CCG.

 

[Tomhusker]

I'd rather them schedule somebody on their bye week.
But I've got a wedding to officiate on that day, so it's not like I'd get to watch it anyway.

 

[tometom]

Isn't Akron St pretty much the only team u can reschedule with? Maybe an FCS? All the other teams have full schedules, right? U can't play more than the NCAA allows.