2017 Texas Rangers offseason thread

[saddles]

On that financial note, Daniels says their payroll probably won't be as big as it was this season, when, at $175 million, it was among baseball's top half-dozen. He expects to use nearly all of his available funds on pitching, the most expensive commodity in baseball.

"We're gonna have to be good," he said of the front office, "and use our resources wisely."

He'll need to be better than good if the Rangers really want to avoid the R-word next season. And if you need another label, Jon, look me up. I've got a million of 'em.

 

[DT LUNA]

It is a small number because usually the GMs do a good job of not offering QO to those free agents who they think will accept it. The percentage would no doubt be much higher if every free agent was offered a QO. The one year 2 of 10 took it and that is with GMs not offering it to those who they thought would jump at it.

True but the% is still small and that was the point. I think what you point out was the case with Cruz.

 

[saddles]

Between Thompson, Gonzalez, Leody Taveras, Miguel Aparicio, and Leuri Mejia, the center field depth on display in Surprise was exciting.

 

[True Rangers Fan]

Former Rangers great and World Series hero Mitch Moreland is right in the middle of the Boston offense today.

 

[saddles]

Jamey Newberg seems to think we will trade prospects for pitching for the 2018 rotation.

 

[DT LUNA]

Former Rangers great and World Series hero Mitch Moreland is right in the middle of the Boston offense today.

Good for Mitch. Wish him well.

 

[saddles]

This from Jamey Newberg:

If Gonzalez hasn’t been the star of camp, 18-year-old shortstop Chris Seise (rhymes with “beast”) has. He’s not quite Carlos Correa’s size (at a similar age), but he’s close, and coming off a .336/.395/.509 Arizona League run (followed by a late-season stint against college-aged Northwest Leaguers), the 2017 supplemental first-rounder (taken as compensation for the loss of Ian Desmond with the 29th overall pick, the same slot Lewis Brinson was drafted in five years earlier) has the chance to be a system-defining prospect. I won’t say I’m coming away from Surprise with 2009 Profar thoughts in my head, for a couple reasons, but I’m really fired up about Seise, whose bat looks like it might play anywhere on the field.

The Gonzalez he refers to is Pedro Gonzalez who was the return for Lucroy a few weeks back.

 

[saddles]

More from Jamey:

In pitching coordinator Danny Clark’s 12 years with the Rangers, the organization has had 67 pitchers who’d come through its Instructional League program get to the big leagues. DC pointed that out in a room of 30 pitchers — ages 18 to 23, plus James Jones (the only one of the five players in the Leonys Martin trade with Seattle who hasn’t changed teams again), a converted outfielder coming off Tommy John who will turn 30 during the 2018 season — not to pat himself and his staff of instructors on the back, but to challenge the kids in the room with the reality that most of them — do the math — won’t do enough to get to the Major Leagues.


It’s a game of failure. Effort, though it guarantees nothing, is essential.


DC singled out Alex Claudio as an example. A 27th-round pick with middling stuff who changed his arm slot but never his focus, driven to do everything asked of him so he could pitch in the big leagues.


As far as the pitchers in camp are concerned, in my three days there AJ Alexy was drawing a good bit of the buzz . . . but not as much as righthander Hans Crouse, who looks like he should have never fallen to the 66th pick — and the 30th pitcher taken — in June.

 

[True Rangers Fan]

Jamey Newberg seems to think we will trade prospects for pitching for the 2018 rotation.

I hope not. It would completely drain our system.

 

[saddles]

If we can hang onto these guys the real fun starts when Ragans, Cody, Matuella, Palumbo, Crouse, and Alexy make their way up here. Or at least if 3 or 4 of them pan out. If we can hold onto them and not take the cheese by trading them to push for a wildcard berth then maybe we can get back to the WS.

 

[DT LUNA]

I hope not. It would completely drain our system.

Don't see it happening. If we pick up Darvish or Ohtani and Cash we should be in decent shape with: Darvish/Ohtani Hamel Perez and Cashner. Somewhere we have to get some bats with avg/obp. HR or nothing want cut it. With the K's of Gallo and Odor we must do something to change our direction on offense. RISP was awful this year.

 

[Nightcrawler]

Don't see it happening. If we pick up Darvish or Ohtani and Cash we should be in decent shape with: Darvish/Ohtani Hamel Perez and Cashner. Somewhere we have to get some bats with avg/obp. HR or nothing want cut it. With the K's of Gallo and Odor we must do something to change our direction on offense. RISP was awful this year.

Odor never takes walks. Kid needs to learn that it's ok to rely on the guys behind you. Sometimes it's about running up a pitchers pitch count, wearing him down, or throwing off his rhythm and not just getting the " big hit".

I was hoping to see iapoce get the axe, but Andrus's stellar year probably saved him.

 

[saddles]

I wonder if any of the writers asked JD why the budget was taking a step back to 2016 levels for next year?

 

[Kelleyman]

I wonder if any of the writers asked JD why the budget was taking a step back to 2016 levels for next year?

I wonder if it has anything to do with Prince buyout? Or perhaps JD is lowballing. Perhaps you could ask Grant.

 

[saddles]

I wonder if it has anything to do with Prince buyout? Or perhaps JD is lowballing. Perhaps you could ask Grant.

I don't think so because whatever they have to pay out for him is included in that budget. I did ask Wilson. I think Evan would have took the opportunity to defend the budget instead of answering the question.

 

[saddles]

This article suggests Cashner will get an AAV in the $8-12 million range.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Andrew Cashner

Beyond the matters of present and projected talent, long-term durability remains something of a question given that Cashner has missed some time with arm issues in the past. He’ll turn 31 in a few days, so he isn’t old, but he’s also not particularly young for a free-agent pitcher. Notably, too, Cashner’s velocity has trended downward. This year, he’s sitting at 94 mph with his four-seamer and 92.9 mph with his sinker — around one full tick below the prior year in both cases (and yet further behind his peak levels).


So, what might the market make of all this? It’s rather difficult to say, truthfully, since it’s hard to find pitchers with anything approaching this kind of profile. While bounceback hurlers such as Rich Hill and Scott Kazmir have scored three-year, $48MM contracts in recent years after returning from rough stretches, they did so after carrying good results and peripherals for one or more prior seasons...

With or without compensation, Cashner seems more likely to receive offers in that $8MM to $12MM annual range, dependent upon the length of the term. We have seen quite a few solid but flawed arms land in that admittedly wide bucket — often scoring long-term commitments. Three-year pacts have gone to J.A. Happ ($36MM) and Ivan Nova ($26MM) — both of which have held up rather well thus far. Pitchers such as Ricky Nolasco and Brandon McCarthy have secured ~$12MM annually over four-year terms, though they had stronger free-agent cases based on their underlying metrics than Cashner. We’ve even seen some lower-AAV, longer-term deals, such as those landed by Phil Hughes (three years, $24MM) and Jason Vargas (four years, $32MM), which function as a reminder that the market can always create one-off contract scenarios.

Perhaps the most interesting analogy, all things considered, comes from Yovani Gallardo’s recent trip into free agency. At the time, he was coming off of a year in which he put up 184 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA pitching with a solid ground-ball rate but just 5.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. He was younger than Cashner by about a year, with a lengthier track record of performance and durability, though he also had shown a more significant velocity decrease before entering the market. Gallardo was initially able to secure a $35MM guarantee over three years, but he ultimately had to settle for a promise of $22MM with a third-year option after a shoulder issue came up in his physical. Hopefully, Cashner can avoid any medical complications; he may also not come with draft compensation, which surely impacted Gallardo (who didn’t sign until late February).

 

[saddles]

Jon Heyman says "The Rangers are considering issuing a qualifying offer to Andrew Cashner. This would ensure that Texas received some draft pick compensation if Cashner rejected the QO, though given the Rangers’ need for pitching, they could welcome the chance to bring back Cashner on a one-year deal. Still, since the QO carries a hefty cost of $18.1MM, it is still a little surprising that Texas is considering issuing one to Cashner, who is a decent candidate to accept."

 

[saddles]

Texas Rangers rumors: Shohei Ohtani and Miles Mikolas as possible targets

While Ohtani will be the most coveted free agent on the market, should he opt to come to the United States for the 2018 season, there’s another under-the-radar pitcher in the Japanese League who the Rangers would likely have interest in — righthander Miles Mikolas. MLB Trade Rumors reports that Mikolas, who is a free agent after finishing a two year, $5 million deal with the Yomiuri Giants.


Mikolas was acquired by the Rangers in December, 2013, for first baseman Chris McGuiness, and the Rangers converting him from relief to starting. Mikolas started 10 games for the Rangers in that forgettable 2014 season, then was sold to Japan after the season, where he has spent the last three years with the Giants. During that stretch, Mikolas put up a 2.18 ERA, with 378 Ks against 39 walks in 424.2 IP.


As MLB Trade Rumors points out, not only does this front office have a history with Mikolas, they also signed gaijin pitchers Colby Lewis and Tony Barnette from Japan after each resuscitated their respective careers in the JPL. Texas has been one of the most aggressive teams in scouting Japan, and give the need for multiple additions to the rotation, Mikolas could be a good fit with the Rangers, and potentially give them a reliable back-end starter.


So Rangers fans should keep an eye on both of these pitchers...while Ohtani is a stud and would be a legitimate #1 starter for Texas, Mikolas could be an under-the-radar option to help round out the rotation.

 

[saddles]

In the last game Mikolas started for us in 2014 he threw 8 shutout innings and gave up 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 5. That is a really good line and it was only his 10th big league start. He actually had 3 quality starts out of those 10 starts that year. Going after this guy seems to have JD's name written all over it.

 

[scotsman1948]

do we pick up Napoli's 11M option or let him walk & pay him 2.5M? do we pick up Barnett's 4M option? if we do both that ties up 102.333M of the 155M JD says will be our target budget. that leave 52.667M to cover our arbitration cases, whatever Prince will cost us and any free agents that we might sign. assuming Prince will cost us between 9-11M that leaves us between 41.667-43.667M. assuming we sign our arbitration/team controlled MLB-level players(11 by my count) to 2018 salaries of a combined 10-12M that would leave us around 39 to 42M to fill 3 starter, 2 relief and possibly 1 of postitions. if they offer Cashner the QO of 18.1M and he accepts it we are left with between 20.9 and 23.9M for the rest of our needs. JD and his team have their work cut out for them.