2015 Pirates

[pixburgher66]

Fair point DS.

I think my definition of ACE would include doing it over multiple years, looking at the leader-board, Jose Quintana and Phil Hughes aren't aces, yet, but they had ACE-like seasons. Both better statistically than Wainwright who is a no doubt ACE.

A lot of semantics, but i think the point still stands that the Pirates are weaker in general at SP than most contenders.

Hmmm...now I need to look up everyone else's rotation, although that's tough to do with Shields and Scherzer still on the market.

 

[pixburgher66]

Ranking the top 10 starting rotations - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

As I was doing this, I stumbled upon this article, which is from 2014. It cracked me up having the beauty of hindsight. Some of those are good picks, but many aren't.

 

[pixburgher66]

Projecting all 15 National League teams' starting rotations - Newsday

There's the NL rotations. Of the contenders, they're a step behind, but not a BIG step behind.

 

[Darkstone42]

Projecting all 15 National League teams' starting rotations - Newsday

There's the NL rotations. Of the contenders, they're a step behind, but not a BIG step behind.

Hm... Only the Dodgers and Nationals have really elite rotations in the NL it seems. The Cards, Cubs, and Mets have really good rotations, and then the third tier, I'd say, is the Pirates, more or less alone. After that, a few teams (Reds, Marlins, Braves, Giants, Phillies) are strong at the top by lack rotation depth, or have depth but aren't especially strong at the top (Padres, Brewers). The Rockies and Diamondbacks are going to be an adventure....

I'd probably rank them:
1. Dodgers (propelled a lot by Kershaw)
2. Nationals
--
3. Cardinals
4. Cubs
5. Mets (assuming de Grom wasn't a flash in the pan and Harvey is healthy)
--
6. Pirates
--
7. Marlins (with a healthy Jose Fernandez)
8. Phillies (with a healthy Cliff Lee)
9. Braves
10. Padres
11. Giants (it's basically just Bum)
12. Reds (it's basically just Cueto)
13. Brewers (5 good pitchers, no real top guy)
--
14. Rockies
15. Diamondbacks

The "--" separate the tiers, but within each tier I think there's a lot of mobility. I could actually see the Pirates and Marlins jumping up to the next tier if their guys are healthy. But this just kind of illustrates that the Pirates have a roughly average rotation, pretty middle of the pack in the NL. Fortunately, only four of the five rotations ahead of them belong to contenders, and one of those contenders (Cubs) we can't even be sure about yet.

 

[pixburgher66]

Hm... Only the Dodgers and Nationals have really elite rotations in the NL it seems. The Cards, Cubs, and Mets have really good rotations, and then the third tier, I'd say, is the Pirates, more or less alone. After that, a few teams (Reds, Marlins, Braves, Giants, Phillies) are strong at the top by lack rotation depth, or have depth but aren't especially strong at the top (Padres, Brewers). The Rockies and Diamondbacks are going to be an adventure....

I'd probably rank them:
1. Dodgers (propelled a lot by Kershaw)
2. Nationals
--
3. Cardinals
4. Cubs
5. Mets (assuming de Grom wasn't a flash in the pan and Harvey is healthy)
--
6. Pirates
--
7. Marlins (with a healthy Jose Fernandez)
8. Phillies (with a healthy Cliff Lee)
9. Braves
10. Padres
11. Giants (it's basically just Bum)
12. Reds (it's basically just Cueto)
13. Brewers (5 good pitchers, no real top guy)
--
14. Rockies
15. Diamondbacks

The "--" separate the tiers, but within each tier I think there's a lot of mobility. I could actually see the Pirates and Marlins jumping up to the next tier if their guys are healthy. But this just kind of illustrates that the Pirates have a roughly average rotation, pretty middle of the pack in the NL. Fortunately, only four of the five rotations ahead of them belong to contenders, and one of those contenders (Cubs) we can't even be sure about yet.

Yep, pretty much my thinking. I put LAD, and WSH ahead by a solid margin, with Cards slightly ahead. Cubs I'm just not convinced are a contender to this point. I think as long as they stay competitive with the Cards in terms of rotation they'll be fine. There's no catching the Dodgers or Nats.

 

[sychmd]

Hm... Only the Dodgers and Nationals have really elite rotations in the NL it seems. The Cards, Cubs, and Mets have really good rotations, and then the third tier, I'd say, is the Pirates, more or less alone. After that, a few teams (Reds, Marlins, Braves, Giants, Phillies) are strong at the top by lack rotation depth, or have depth but aren't especially strong at the top (Padres, Brewers). The Rockies and Diamondbacks are going to be an adventure....

I'd probably rank them:
1. Dodgers (propelled a lot by Kershaw)
2. Nationals
--
3. Cardinals
4. Cubs
5. Mets (assuming de Grom wasn't a flash in the pan and Harvey is healthy)
--
6. Pirates
--
7. Marlins (with a healthy Jose Fernandez)
8. Phillies (with a healthy Cliff Lee)
9. Braves
10. Padres
11. Giants (it's basically just Bum)
12. Reds (it's basically just Cueto)
13. Brewers (5 good pitchers, no real top guy)
--
14. Rockies
15. Diamondbacks

The "--" separate the tiers, but within each tier I think there's a lot of mobility. I could actually see the Pirates and Marlins jumping up to the next tier if their guys are healthy. But this just kind of illustrates that the Pirates have a roughly average rotation, pretty middle of the pack in the NL. Fortunately, only four of the five rotations ahead of them belong to contenders, and one of those contenders (Cubs) we can't even be sure about yet.

nice job,

Liriano, when healthy is a #1 over the last 2 years.
Cole, on the verge of #1 when healthy especially from sep to end of year (10-2 W/L).
Burnett - is he the 2 from the past yrs with bucs or a #4 as playing hurt last year.
Morton (not mentioned in the list) if we get a healthy and productive morton - he is about a consistent 2-2b when he is in the groove, as his stats over the last 4 years are impressive given the number of starts included where he was hurt.
Worley - 2b last year, if eh has found his niche with the pirate philosophy of pounding the zone with low strikes and relying on defense.
Locke - not very hopeful of anything year long but could have sot starts of brilliance for a stretch of 3-5 starts when someone is injured. seems like when he becomes a regular and starts to play and nibble is when he gets in trouble with too many BB and deep counts.

and these aren't huge reaches and mainly depend on health as opposed to finding some extra skill, velocity, or command. they have shown it in the last year at times.

this would put us in the 2nd tier you list and even rival the first tier.
If only cole or liriano can be that lock down loran was in 2013 and cole has been in sep the last 2 years.

i don't think our BP will blow many in the middle innings like we have in the past couple years, then pick up the BP win when we come back. so the starters W-L will better represent their effort.

 

[Darkstone42]

nice job,

Liriano, when healthy is a #1 over the last 2 years.
Cole, on the verge of #1 when healthy especially from sep to end of year (10-2 W/L).
Burnett - is he the 2 from the past yrs with bucs or a #4 as playing hurt last year.
Morton (not mentioned in the list) if we get a healthy and productive morton - he is about a consistent 2-2b when he is in the groove, as his stats over the last 4 years are impressive given the number of starts included where he was hurt.
Worley - 2b last year, if eh has found his niche with the pirate philosophy of pounding the zone with low strikes and relying on defense.
Locke - not very hopeful of anything year long but could have sot starts of brilliance for a stretch of 3-5 starts when someone is injured. seems like when he becomes a regular and starts to play and nibble is when he gets in trouble with too many BB and deep counts.

and these aren't huge reaches and mainly depend on health as opposed to finding some extra skill, velocity, or command. they have shown it in the last year at times.

this would put us in the 2nd tier you list and even rival the first tier.
If only cole or liriano can be that lock down loran was in 2013 and cole has been in sep the last 2 years.

i don't think our BP will blow many in the middle innings like we have in the past couple years, then pick up the BP win when we come back. so the starters W-L will better represent their effort.

Morton is average, which I consider a #3. I expect Burnett to be average, and a #3. Worley is, even with last year's performance, no better than a #3 at his best, but profiles better as a 4 or 5. All three of them have downsides of 4, 5, or 6, as well. I expect all three to pitch on the cusp between 3/4 this season, though.

Unless Morton is 2013 Morton and Burnett is 2013 Burnett and Worley is 2014 Worley, we can't get into that second tier of rotations. Due to the former two having recent injuries, I find putting our trust in them to pitch like their 2013 selves is dubious.

I also think it's unlikely they'll pitch at their floors, though, since the recent track record has been overachieving. They'll probably land somewhere in the middle, and while having two #2s and three #3/4s is a solid rotation that a good offense (like ours) can win with, I also can't consider it a "strong" rotation. I think the best way to describe it is "good enough."

Adding another #2, though, would put us in that second tier. Maybe NH still has some magic left to work to that end.

 

[sychmd]

regarding morton and worley, many were as skeptical or more of volquez last year, but the 2nd half of the year he was a #1.
morton and worley were coming off much better years than volquez was.
the chances of morton or worley success are higher and the chance of their floor is less.
also, burnett being healthy seems definite, so he should easily be our 3 which is probably a league 2b or even possibly a 2. hope he can pitch to win and not pitch to .500 as his career instincts seem to be.

 

[thecrow124]

Morton is average, which I consider a #3. I expect Burnett to be average, and a #3. Worley is, even with last year's performance, no better than a #3 at his best, but profiles better as a 4 or 5. All three of them have downsides of 4, 5, or 6, as well. I expect all three to pitch on the cusp between 3/4 this season, though.

Unless Morton is 2013 Morton and Burnett is 2013 Burnett and Worley is 2014 Worley, we can't get into that second tier of rotations. Due to the former two having recent injuries, I find putting our trust in them to pitch like their 2013 selves is dubious.

I also think it's unlikely they'll pitch at their floors, though, since the recent track record has been overachieving. They'll probably land somewhere in the middle, and while having two #2s and three #3/4s is a solid rotation that a good offense (like ours) can win with, I also can't consider it a "strong" rotation. I think the best way to describe it is "good enough."

Adding another #2, though, would put us in that second tier. Maybe NH still has some magic left to work to that end.

The other #2 you speak of will have the possibility of arriving in September in the form of Jameson Taillon.

I think where these lists are skewed is that they only account for 5 starters and the closer. When you figure that every team will use at least 2-3 depth pitchers then the rankings could change drastically. Take the Dodgers, if Kershaw goes down for any extended period, the I rotation would drop to the same tier that the Pirates are in. However, if the Pirates be in up Kingham and Taillon, replacing the back 2 in the rotation, then we should move up at least to the next tier.

It is fun to speculate in the preseason, which is what all this is about, but if you were to project out 8 starters, I think the listings would look a lot different.

 

[Darkstone42]

The other #2 you speak of will have the possibility of arriving in September in the form of Jameson Taillon.

I think where these lists are skewed is that they only account for 5 starters and the closer. When you figure that every team will use at least 2-3 depth pitchers then the rankings could change drastically. Take the Dodgers, if Kershaw goes down for any extended period, the I rotation would drop to the same tier that the Pirates are in. However, if the Pirates be in up Kingham and Taillon, replacing the back 2 in the rotation, then we should move up at least to the next tier.

It is fun to speculate in the preseason, which is what all this is about, but if you were to project out 8 starters, I think the listings would look a lot different.

True. But I certainly don't know anyone else's rotations well enough to do that.

 

[sychmd]

True. But I certainly don't know anyone else's rotations well enough to do that.

hard enough feat to keep track of and project our own rotation and system as we dissect and hyper scrutinize them over the years.

our depth is a good point, especially if we lived in a socialist system (no political commentary please) where all the teams get stricken with the same amount of injuries to the same staff hierarchy equivalents, if that makes sense. trying to multitask!

 

[Illinest]

It's got to be Pjoma. I refuse to believe that there's more than one person in the world with this degree of irrational exuberance.

 

[Darkstone42]

The Kang signing is official. Also, his name is pronounced "gong," so there go the Kang the Conqueror or King Kang nicknames.

Darn it.

 

[Darkstone42]

Kang's deal is even better than we thought. 4 years, $11 million, $1 million buyout of the option in 2019. That's probably going to be a steal. He only needs to be a competent bench player for the value to be really good.

 

[element1286]

Read some tweets that NH believes he will be a complimentary player this year, playing multiple positions to give guys days off. And that they don't expect him to spend any time in the minors.

 

[Darkstone42]

Read some tweets that NH believes he will be a complimentary player this year, playing multiple positions to give guys days off. And that they don't expect him to spend any time in the minors.

Yup, sounds about right. Between him and Rodriguez, we have a couple guys who aren't inept with the bat who can play anywhere on the infield to spell guys. Fatigue should never be a problem for this team. I expect Walker to get a day off a week or so thanks to this depth, which may help him keep his back in better shape.

 

[element1286]

My fingers are crossed Hurdle knows how to use these guys. That's a lot of moving parts.

 

[sychmd]

Yup, sounds about right. Between him and Rodriguez, we have a couple guys who aren't inept with the bat who can play anywhere on the infield to spell guys. Fatigue should never be a problem for this team. I expect Walker to get a day off a week or so thanks to this depth, which may help him keep his back in better shape.

should alleviate his struggle against LHP, and let kang hack away.

it will be interesting to see how hang hits with the cavernous LF gap. hopefully he can go the other way, or pull the breaking ball down the line.

 

[thecrow124]

should alleviate his struggle against LHP, and let kang hack away.

it will be interesting to see how hang hits with the cavernous LF gap. hopefully he can go the other way, or pull the breaking ball down the line.

What little I have seen and heard about him says he is a pull hitter. The aggressive swing would make me believe that that is the case as well. If he can get around fast enough to stay away from RCF, he should be fine.

 

[sychmd]

What little I have seen and heard about him says he is a pull hitter. The aggressive swing would make me believe that that is the case as well. If he can get around fast enough to stay away from RCF, he should be fine.

just saw a quote from NH saying one of the things they like about him was his power to all fields and intelligence as a hitter. so hopefully he can adjust like harrison and cutch and use the other half at PNC