2015 Pirates

[WVUinVegas]

 

[Darkstone42]

This gets my vote for Kang's nickname!

 

[pixburgher66]

I really like the Kang deal. And I agree with most...just feels like the team is one SP away from being not just a contender, but a favorite. That said, probably won't happen. The money is pretty much tied up, and everything that NH has said has indicated that they're going with the depth guys they have. They may not have a bonafide #1, but I'd say they have 3 #2s.

 

[thecrow124]

I really like the Kang deal. And I agree with most...just feels like the team is one SP away from being not just a contender, but a favorite. That said, probably won't happen. The money is pretty much tied up, and everything that NH has said has indicated that they're going with the depth guys they have. They may not have a bonafide #1, but I'd say they have 3 #2s.

The only reason Liriano would be considered a #2 is because of his injuries, when healthy he has put up #1 pitcher stats with us, so we should get about 150 innings of a #1 this year. I also think that after Cole came back fully healthy he pitched like a #1. That is not to say he has done so consistently, but for the second half last year he was pretty close to a #1. I think the next 5 pitchers on our depth chart would all grade out as #3 one the high end, but more than likely #4's(capable of putting up #2 outings, but also below average outings). I do believe that it would be in our best interrest to go out at some point and get a top of the rotation guy though. I don't see it happening, but I do think that it would be beneficial. Preferably a left hander, namely Cole Hamels, but it isn't my money so it isn't like I have a say. It is easy to play owner and gm from K-town.

 

[Darkstone42]

Kang thinks he can outplay Mercer and win the starting SS job. Good, I like that attitude. And if he does outplay Mercer, we have a really good problem on our hands, because Mercer is an average (maybe better) Major League shortstop based on the past two years.

I'm hoping Hurdle has to get creative to get 10 guys regular at bats (Cutch, Marte, Harrison, Walker, Alvarez, Mercer, Kang, Polanco, Snider, and Cervelli) because that kind of depth would be a huge boost. We'd be able to rest everyone regularly, cover injuries, our pinch-hitting would be solid, and when we have to use the DH, we won't be reaching for bats.

Heck, maybe Hart bounces back and makes that number 11.

I really like our depth.

 

[Darkstone42]

The only reason Liriano would be considered a #2 is because of his injuries, when healthy he has put up #1 pitcher stats with us, so we should get about 150 innings of a #1 this year. I also think that after Cole came back fully healthy he pitched like a #1. That is not to say he has done so consistently, but for the second half last year he was pretty close to a #1. I think the next 5 pitchers on our depth chart would all grade out as #3 one the high end, but more than likely #4's(capable of putting up #2 outings, but also below average outings). I do believe that it would be in our best interrest to go out at some point and get a top of the rotation guy though. I don't see it happening, but I do think that it would be beneficial. Preferably a left hander, namely Cole Hamels, but it isn't my money so it isn't like I have a say. It is easy to play owner and gm from K-town.

Yeah, I think Liriano and Cole are comfortably #2s with #1 upside, Burnett and Morton are borderline 3/4 with #2 upside (Morton in particular is wildly inconsistent, but has a good number of starts where he looks nearly untouchable), and Worley is a #5 with #3 upside. Locke, to me, is a fringe #5. It's a rotation that could play really strong with a floor of good enough.

 

[thecrow124]

Yeah, I think Liriano and Cole are comfortably #2s with #1 upside, Burnett and Morton are borderline 3/4 with #2 upside (Morton in particular is wildly inconsistent, but has a good number of starts where he looks nearly untouchable), and Worley is a #5 with #3 upside. Locke, to me, is a fringe #5. It's a rotation that could play really strong with a floor of good enough.

Morton is untouchable by RH batters at times. Not that it would ever happen, but I would like to see Hurdle put Locke on the lineup card so that a team lines up 8 RH hitters, then have him injure himself during warmups, bring in Morton and see what the opposing manager does. Maybe try it against Joe Maddon and the Cubs, that would be fun. Actually it is a stupid idea, but I have had just enough to drink to make me think it up.

 

[stillmatic32]

Morton is untouchable by RH batters at times. Not that it would ever happen, but I would like to see Hurdle put Locke on the lineup card so that a team lines up 8 RH hitters, then have him injure himself during warmups, bring in Morton and see what the opposing manager does. Maybe try it against Joe Maddon and the Cubs, that would be fun. Actually it is a stupid idea, but I have had just enough to drink to make me think it up.

I like it! Save that move for a key game down the stretch. Make it seem like Morton is away dealing with personal issues, then he comes out of nowhere and replaces the "injured" Locke.

 

[pixburgher66]

Where Josh Harrison Goes from Here | FanGraphs Baseball

Good stuff on JHay here. I'm not the best with stats, but I like what he has to say. Some regression expected, but not to the point where he's not a valuable player.

 

[pixburgher66]

Morton is untouchable by RH batters at times. Not that it would ever happen, but I would like to see Hurdle put Locke on the lineup card so that a team lines up 8 RH hitters, then have him injure himself during warmups, bring in Morton and see what the opposing manager does. Maybe try it against Joe Maddon and the Cubs, that would be fun. Actually it is a stupid idea, but I have had just enough to drink to make me think it up.

Hahhhhhahahahah

 

[pixburgher66]

The only reason Liriano would be considered a #2 is because of his injuries, when healthy he has put up #1 pitcher stats with us, so we should get about 150 innings of a #1 this year. I also think that after Cole came back fully healthy he pitched like a #1. That is not to say he has done so consistently, but for the second half last year he was pretty close to a #1. I think the next 5 pitchers on our depth chart would all grade out as #3 one the high end, but more than likely #4's(capable of putting up #2 outings, but also below average outings). I do believe that it would be in our best interrest to go out at some point and get a top of the rotation guy though. I don't see it happening, but I do think that it would be beneficial. Preferably a left hander, namely Cole Hamels, but it isn't my money so it isn't like I have a say. It is easy to play owner and gm from K-town.

I'm being conservative in saying that. No "bona fide" guy, at least at this point. If Liriano finds his stride and stays healthy, he's a bona fide #1. And Cole is incredibly close to being that guy. He has the stuff for it, and has shown the ability to put it all together, just needs some consistency. If both those things happen, then I think we have 1a. 1b. and a 2 in AJ. I call AJ a #2 mostly because he can still strike 'em out with the best of them, the reality is he's probably closer to a #3. I mean, if all our guys replicate what they've shown they could be, it's a rotation with 2 #1s in Liriano and Cole, 2 #2s in AJ and Morton, and 2 #3s in Locke/Worley. I really don't see Locke bouncing back again, though. Morton however...I see him having a solid year. He's probably my favorite pitcher to watch when he's on.

 

[element1286]

I guess it depends on your definition on #1. If you assume all 30 teams have a #1, and the top 30 pitchers are #1 starters, Liriano is probably in there.

I usually like a more narrow definition, something like averaging 5WAR for 3 seasons to be a #1.

 

[element1286]

Where Josh Harrison Goes from Here | FanGraphs Baseball

Good stuff on JHay here. I'm not the best with stats, but I like what he has to say. Some regression expected, but not to the point where he's not a valuable player.

His defense and contact ability give him a pretty high floor. Even if he regresses he'll still be valuable.

He has always been a good hitter throughout the minors, and last year's spike in HR makes me think he has just improved.

After having a good year too, pitchers respect you more the next year, wouldn't be surprised to see a bump in the walk rate.

 

[Darkstone42]

I guess it depends on your definition on #1. If you assume all 30 teams have a #1, and the top 30 pitchers are #1 starters, Liriano is probably in there.

I usually like a more narrow definition, something like averaging 5WAR for 3 seasons to be a #1.

I think 4 WAR is a better cutoff, honestly. League average is, what 2 or so? That's what I'd call a #3, #4 would be 1.5, #5 would be 1, #2 would be 3 and #1 would be 4. Last year, if you round, 22 pitchers would be #1s, only 15 of those actually had a 4+ WAR, so it's still more narrow. I'd call 5+ an ace (which I consider a step up from a #1). There were ten of those last year.

 

[element1286]

Fair point DS.

I think my definition of ACE would include doing it over multiple years, looking at the leader-board, Jose Quintana and Phil Hughes aren't aces, yet, but they had ACE-like seasons. Both better statistically than Wainwright who is a no doubt ACE.

A lot of semantics, but i think the point still stands that the Pirates are weaker in general at SP than most contenders.

 

[Darkstone42]

Fair point DS.

I think my definition of ACE would include doing it over multiple years, looking at the leader-board, Jose Quintana and Phil Hughes aren't aces, yet, but they had ACE-like seasons. Both better statistically than Wainwright who is a no doubt ACE.

A lot of semantics, but i think the point still stands that the Pirates are weaker in general at SP than most contenders.

Yeah, I just figured I would look at one season, since I guessed it would be reasonably indicative of the number of aces/#1s in the game. I figure over a few year stretch, you're probably looking at roughly 20-25 guys who qualify as #1s and about 10 who qualify as aces.

 

[Darkstone42]

Buster Olney, for whatever it's worth, thinks the Pirates have an average rotation with an upside to be in the top ten in MLB with a full season of a healthy Cole, as well as a top three lineup and bullpen in the NL. That's pretty nice.

 

[26 elroy face]

Morton is untouchable by RH batters at times. Not that it would ever happen, but I would like to see Hurdle put Locke on the lineup card so that a team lines up 8 RH hitters, then have him injure himself during warmups, bring in Morton and see what the opposing manager does. Maybe try it against Joe Maddon and the Cubs, that would be fun. Actually it is a stupid idea, but I have had just enough to drink to make me think it up.

Someone touched him, by my last count before his injury he led the majors in allowing big innings. He had 19 innings that he allowed three or more runs.

 

[Illinest]

I consider a #1 pitcher to be the same thing as an ace, and an ace is a guy that you wouldn't be afraid to match up against one of the better pitchers in the league in an important game.
Like Lester against Greinke. That kinda deal.
But Kershaw is a step above them, and Liriano is a step below those first two guys.
Liriano is a #2 pitcher when he's on top of his game. He can have stretches where he pitches at ace-level, but he doesn't do it consistently enough to call him an ace. That's my feeling.

 

[pixburgher66]

I consider a #1 and an ace different things, I guess.