2015 Pirates

[thedddd]

With both players I don't see either being useful long term.

With Alvarez even with the new approach he still can't hit lefties. His numbers were pretty much flat (actually a little lower in some cases like OBP from the year prior and his career) but his strikeout numbers did go way down so I guess there is a huge positive.

IDK...I just am not seeing becoming nothing more than a left handed side of a platoon at 1B. If that is enough value for the Pirates or a trade partner then great. Down the road I think his Pirates tenure will end with the likes of an Ike Davis or Gabby Sanchez.

Trust me if he becomes an above average 1B for the Pirates I will be pleased.

 

[thedddd]

I was talking about Alvarez. Snider needs to get on base more often before we can judge his baserunning, but I haven't seen much to suggest that he's good at that.

If anyone wants to parse smaller samples at all - Snider's numbers are greatly skewed toward a couple of half-seasons at the beginning of his career. He seems to be a pretty clear example of the young hitter who has some success until the scouts figure out which pitches he can't handle. His 2014 was solid enough that I like the idea of having him as our 4th outfielder but I think it is hugely premature to talk about him as a starter. He's a reclamation projection who might still work out.

I would hope no one would want him as a starter. The conversation (and my only assumption) in the past was an emergency starter if Polanco has issues or injuries to any starter.

 

[thecrow124]

Pedro is a better hitter than Snider, think that is pretty clear. I'll put my money on the guy who is has been an above average hitter for his entire career save one disastrous season over the guy who has been bad for 3 years and had a great 350 PAs last year.

As for value, ie replacement/defense, being below average in RF which Snider is, is about the same as being above average at first basemen, which is Pedro's likely outcome.

I'm definitely interested in year two of the new Pedro approach, I have a hard time believing he won't improve his offensive numbers assuming the new BB and K numbers are real.

Not sure what this new approach you speak of is. His walk rate really didn't change from his first four seasons in the majors. His strikeout rate did drop, but at 25% is still to high. Accompanying the reduced strikeout rate was also a 33% reduction in homeruns, which is the only offensive category he has ever been goo at, and therefore the reason I use it as an example.

 

[thecrow124]

I am not sure which sluggers of the recent past you are referring to, but the ones I point to most often that seems to encapsulate Pedro's best in my opinion are: Rob Deer, Pete Incaviglia, and Mike Pagliarulo who to this point in their careers is almost an identical twin to Pedro in every aspect. They all share the ability to have low averages, low on base ability, strike out at an alarm in rate and they all had a small stretch of time in their careers hit a lot of homeruns. Lastly, the three I mentioned all had a point in the I careers where the I ability to hit stopped altogether, and to a man it was right around their age 27 season, after which none of them were ever viable major league contributors again.

The only player to share the traits that I mentioned and still be able to sustain a productive major league career past their age 28 season was Craig Nettles, so history would tell us that Pedro will probably never be as good as he was last season ever again, and it is increasingly possible that by his last year of arbitration he will not have any trade value and he will also not be worth the money he will be awarded.

I just went and checks and I guess Rob Deer kind of disproves my theory.

 

[thedddd]

LOL...Rob Deer totally forgot about him.

But one difference was their splits and only if Pedro can improve to Rob Deer levels.
Pedro vs lefties: .196/.267/.321 Deer vs righties: .204/.303/.398

 

[Illinest]

I am not sure which sluggers of the recent past you are referring to, but the ones I point to most often that seems to encapsulate Pedro's best in my opinion are: Rob Deer, Pete Incaviglia, and Mike Pagliarulo who to this point in their careers is almost an identical twin to Pedro in every aspect. They all share the ability to have low averages, low on base ability, strike out at an alarm in rate and they all had a small stretch of time in their careers hit a lot of homeruns. Lastly, the three I mentioned all had a point in the I careers where the I ability to hit stopped altogether, and to a man it was right around their age 27 season, after which none of them were ever viable major league contributors again.

The only player to share the traits that I mentioned and still be able to sustain a productive major league career past their age 28 season was Craig Nettles, so history would tell us that Pedro will probably never be as good as he was last season ever again, and it is increasingly possible that by his last year of arbitration he will not have any trade value and he will also not be worth the money he will be awarded.

Yeah those are pretty good comps, but you don't seem to realize that you're comparing Alvarez to successful hitters. That's the problem. The recent past (steroids era) was filled with guys who had video-game numbers. The 80s and the present day has guys like Alvarez and Deer. Look again at Alvarez's stats in 2014. That's what a successful hitter looks like.
Your comps don't even tell the story you'd like to believe. Each of those guys had at least one productive season in their 30s. Pagliarulo btw hit most of his homeruns in Yankee stadium and is in no way a good comp to Alvarez, who is an actual power hitter. Incaviglia missed his age 31 season and his age 30 season was a partial due to injury. Every other year between age 28 and 32 he was an above average hitter. He and Deer both accumulated more than 200 HRs apiece.

And your main reason for hating Pedro is the strikeouts is it not? He cut 5% off of his rate last year, and boosted his walk rate. He changed his approach and it resulted in better peripherals but his ISO (isolated power) suffered. That's not surprising at all if you consider the circumstances.

Wait a while. See what develops if you give him some time to settle in and get comfortable. I'm betting that he'll start to drive the ball again, and if he can combine his old HR rates with the new K rates and BB rates then your comps will look silly.

 

[Darkstone42]

Yeah those are pretty good comps, but you don't seem to realize that you're comparing Alvarez to successful hitters. That's the problem. The recent past (steroids era) was filled with guys who had video-game numbers. The 80s and the present day has guys like Alvarez and Deer. Look again at Alvarez's stats in 2014. That's what a successful hitter looks like.
Your comps don't even tell the story you'd like to believe. Each of those guys had at least one productive season in their 30s. Pagliarulo btw hit most of his homeruns in Yankee stadium and is in no way a good comp to Alvarez, who is an actual power hitter. Incaviglia missed his age 31 season and his age 30 season was a partial due to injury. Every other year between age 28 and 32 he was an above average hitter. He and Deer both accumulated more than 200 HRs apiece.

And your main reason for hating Pedro is the strikeouts is it not? He cut 5% off of his rate last year, and boosted his walk rate. He changed his approach and it resulted in better peripherals but his ISO (isolated power) suffered. That's not surprising at all if you consider the circumstances.

Wait a while. See what develops if you give him some time to settle in and get comfortable. I'm betting that he'll start to drive the ball again, and if he can combine his old HR rates with the new K rates and BB rates then your comps will look silly.

If he does that, his bat will play reasonably well even at first base. Fingers crossed.

 

[Darkstone42]

The thing that worries me about Pedro is the lingering effects of last season and the move to first base on his confidence. He's gotten in ruts before, so hopefully he can avoid a big one brought on by last season not going well.

Also, the Pirates have started talking to Neil Walker about an extension.

 

[Darkstone42]

One more thing. I read this morning that the Pirates were in on McCarthy. I have to suspect the fourth year for a guy who's had shoulder problems was the deal-breaker for us. And honestly, it probably should have been. The salary was fine.

In any case, we're still in the starting pitching market, so that's good.

 

[element1286]

Not sure what this new approach you speak of is. His walk rate really didn't change from his first four seasons in the majors. His strikeout rate did drop, but at 25% is still to high. Accompanying the reduced strikeout rate was also a 33% reduction in homeruns, which is the only offensive category he has ever been goo at, and therefore the reason I use it as an example.

Fair enough, whacking 5% off the k-rate is significant, IMO. It puts him in a bucket in which HR's don't have to be the only part of him being a good hitter. That's about 30 more balls in play over the course of 600 PA's.

But yeah it did come with a reduced HR rate, but it doesn't have to in the future. His ratios really didn't change as far as how many FB/LD/GB etc, his HR/FB rate went down though, which can happen for many reasons.

 

[element1286]

I just went and checks and I guess Rob Deer kind of disproves my theory.

Butch Hobson (941)
Mike Pagliarulo (941)
Graig Nettles (937)
Howard Johnson (936)
Edwin Encarnacion (933)
Steve Buechele (933)
Joe Crede (932)
Jack Howell (931)
Willie Greene (929)
Darrell Evans (928)

For what it's worth, the top 10 Pedro comps through age 27 based on BR similarity scores. Not sure if that's where you are pulling your info, but it's a mixed bag.

Pedro Alvarez Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com

 

[element1286]

Looks like a Cincy firesale, Latos to Mia seems imminent, and they are working a deal with the Tigers, which many seem to believe is Cueto.

EDIT: looks like it's Alfredo Simon to DET, good time to sell high, he is very replaceable.

 

[pixburgher66]

Easily the most exciting winter meetings in a long time. Looks like the Reds are moving salary, I assume to pay Cueto. That or it's simply a fire sale...which it probably should be. They should honestly move guys like Frasier now while the value is high, I don't see them doing much of anything this season.

 

[element1286]

Masterson to Red Sox, Morales to Royals, I'm guessing since they signed this early they are getting largish deals.

 

[pixburgher66]

Phillies took Andy Oliver in the Rule 5.

 

[element1286]

Tyler Waldron to the Cards in the minor league portion.

 

[Darkstone42]

Well, that was largely uneventful.

 

[Darkstone42]

The Marlins consider Alvarez an option at first base. I wonder if we could swing an Alvarez for Alvarez swap, now that the Marlins have acquired Latos. Henderson Alvarez throws hard and gets ground balls, he fits our pitching philosophy well, and he's young and cheap still, too.

 

[element1286]

Wouldn't be against Alvarez for Alvarez.

Been thinking what it would take to get Daniel Nava, he's cheap not that the Red Sox value that as much, but they have quite a few OF/1B and he's a versatile player. It would to be a baseball trade though cause they wouldn't give him away.

 

[Darkstone42]

Rumors center on Alvarez for Eovaldi, which wouldn't be bad, but I'd definitely try to steer the talks toward Alvarez. Eovaldi did pitch much better than his ERA last season, and posted a solid ERA in 2013, but Henderson is the more talented pitcher, I think. Either would push AJ down to 4th, which would be good, though, and free up pitching depth for deals for upgrades/replacements at first base.