2014 Offseason Plans Thread Pt2

[Broseidon]

I'll raise my price on what I think Tanaka's worth to 14-15 million. I just don't see how he can succeed I guess. I don't really see any other starting pitchers with such a flat and slow(not that 90-92 is slow) fastball succeeding.

He's not a fastball pitcher. He's supposedly got a killer split finger. If the Kuroda comps are accurate, he'll have a fine career

 

[Broseidon]

Still would love to see JD talk to his agent to mess with the other teams. Jack up the price.

With the LA's, yanks and Cubs in pursuit, they won't need Texas to jack up the price.

 

[terpsfball09]

He's not a fastball pitcher. He's supposedly got a killer split finger. If the Kuroda comps are accurate, he'll have a fine career

Kuroda has a ton of movement and also throws harder, even though he's like in his late 30's or something. Tanaka throws slower and is just flat. You simply will not get away with that

 

[jta4437]

Kuroda has a ton of movement and also throws harder, even though he's like in his late 30's or something. Tanaka throws slower and is just flat. You simply will not get away with that

According to fangraphs, Kuroda's fastball averages 90-92, so average velocity is similar, actually Kuroda was around 90 on average last year

I can't speak to movement, but if experts say their fastballs are similar then I'd be inclined to believe them

One point being, Kuroda's value peaked in his age 38 at around 19.1 million but has fluctuated between 9.4 - 16.7 million the other years

So do I think the minimum for Tanaka should be 17 per? That answer is still no

If the proven ML pitcher and analog for Tanaka (Kuroda) has never made more than 16 million a season, then why would I think that's what Tanaka should make?

 

[jamesx122]

According to fangraphs, Kuroda's fastball averages 90-92, so average velocity is similar, actually Kuroda was around 90 on average last year

I can't speak to movement, but if experts say their fastballs are similar then I'd be inclined to believe them

One point being, Kuroda's value peaked in his age 38 at around 19.1 million but has fluctuated between 9.4 - 16.7 million the other years

So do I think the minimum for Tanaka should be 17 per? That answer is still no

If the proven ML pitcher and analog for Tanaka (Kuroda) has never made more than 16 million a season, then why would I think that's what Tanaka should make?

Because Tanaka is like 14 years younger than Kuroda? Also Kuroda came to the MLB when he was 33 so that might have something to do with why he was never paid more than 16 million (which he got when he's going to be 39 coming into this season mind you, so imagine what he would have been paid if he was in his twenties)

Also remember that inflation is a factor to think about. 17 million today isn't as much what with the new tv deals and rising revenue, 17 million back in 2008 however was most likely reserved for your #2 pitchers and above now it's a #3 pitcher's salary.

 

[jta4437]

Because Tanaka is like 14 years younger than Kuroda? Also Kuroda came to the MLB when he was 33 so that might have something to do with why he was never paid more than 16 million (which he got when he's going to be 39 coming into this season mind you, so imagine what he would have been paid if he was in his twenties)

Also remember that inflation is a factor to think about. 17 million today isn't as much what with the new tv deals and rising revenue, 17 million back in 2008 however was most likely reserved for your #2 pitchers and above now it's a #3 pitcher's salary.

I just don't think its a smart financial move, not an unproven for 7 years anyway, 4-5 year deal yeah, not 7

 

[terpsfball09]

According to fangraphs, Kuroda's fastball averages 90-92, so average velocity is similar, actually Kuroda was around 90 on average last year

I can't speak to movement, but if experts say their fastballs are similar then I'd be inclined to believe them

One point being, Kuroda's value peaked in his age 38 at around 19.1 million but has fluctuated between 9.4 - 16.7 million the other years

So do I think the minimum for Tanaka should be 17 per? That answer is still no

If the proven ML pitcher and analog for Tanaka (Kuroda) has never made more than 16 million a season, then why would I think that's what Tanaka should make?

He throws a natural sinker, so it probably moves more than Tanaka's. I was thinking he threw averaging 91.5-92, while tanaka looks like he's sitting around 90. Tanaka has a split going for him, but unless a major league pitching coach can give his fastball a natural sink or tail, then the kuroda comparisons are likely premature.

 

[jta4437]

He throws a natural sinker, so it probably moves more than Tanaka's. I was thinking he threw averaging 91.5-92, while tanaka looks like he's sitting around 90. Tanaka has a split going for him, but unless a major league pitching coach can give his fastball a natural sink or tail, then the kuroda comparisons are likely premature.

Well the fact is, your eyes are decieving you b/c Tanaka DOES throw faster than Kuroda

And Tanaka's fastball doesn't seem AS flat as its made out to be based on the footage that I saw

I think you're overstating his flaws to make your point work for you better

 

[jamesx122]

I just don't think its a smart financial move, not an unproven for 7 years anyway, 4-5 year deal yeah, not 7

I would be hesitant with giving any pitcher a 7 year deal due to the fact that one injury could take them out forever.

But honestly, if our Pacific Rim scouts say that he's worth it then I'm going to trust in their judgement and hope JD can get him.

 

[jta4437]

I would be hesitant with giving any pitcher a 7 year deal due to the fact that one injury could take them out forever.

Especially one with the heavy workload he's had already

 

[terpsfball09]

Okay, lets compare tanaka's salary to that of other #3 pitchers at high market organizations(which the majority of scouting reports have him listed as)

Derek Holland, who I'm considering our number 3 for the argument- 3.2 million. This is a POWER LEFTY, not a finesse righty
Ivan Nova- 575,000
Hyun Jin Ryu- 6 million
Clay Buccholz- 5.75 million
Ryan Vogelsong- 6.5 million
mark buerhle (obviously overpaid)- 11 million
brandon mccarthey- 4 million
rick porcello- 3.1 million

That's all I'll list for now. This dude, who I'll say again, still has not made one big league pitch, wants OVER 17 million. None of the people on this list touch that. That's more than darvish. Sure, the posting fee is much less, but even when added together its gonna be more than what we paid for yu, inflation or not.

 

[terpsfball09]

Well the fact is, your eyes are decieving you b/c Tanaka DOES throw faster than Kuroda

And Tanaka's fastball doesn't seem AS flat as its made out to be based on the footage that I saw

I think you're overstating his flaws to make your point work for you better

but you just said you were gonna trust the experts... and every expert says that they are very concerned about his below average flat fastball

 

[jamesx122]

Especially one with the heavy workload he's had already

Then again his workload is only 46.9 innings more than what Darvish pitched, unless the difference in size between the two somehow contributes?

 

[jamesx122]

but you just said you were gonna trust the experts... and every expert says that they are very concerned about his below average flat fastball

I haven't really seen an expert that says they're "very concerned", from what I've seen they just said that if he leaves it up in the zone it's probably going to get hit hard. So like I said earlier tell him to keep it low and use his splitter and slider to keep hitters off balance, pitch sequencing can be a big factor in getting a hitter out.

Despite this flat fastball why are most experts saying he's going to be a mid rotation starter at worst, the way you've been describing it would lead one to believe he'll be lucky to post an ERA below 4.00 once in his career.

 

[terpsfball09]

I've read one scouting report that his fastball is like greg maddux's without the movement. In other words he can control it very well but it isnt hard and, as stated earlier, doesnt move.

People are downplaying the fact that not only does it not move and is slow, its also on a flat plane due to his long stride. If it was at least on a downhill plane then it would be harder to lift the ball up, but its not.

Scouts love his control and his off speed pitches, but I have yet to hear a report that says they like his fastball. Most I've read state that as a weakness and some of them say they are concerned about how big league hitters will see this pitch

 

[terpsfball09]

I haven't really seen an expert that says they're "very concerned", from what I've seen they just said that if he leaves it up in the zone it's probably going to get hit hard. So like I said earlier tell him to keep it low and use his splitter and slider to keep hitters off balance, pitch sequencing can be a big factor in getting a hitter out.

Despite this flat fastball why are most experts saying he's going to be a mid rotation starter at worst, the way you've been describing it would lead one to believe he'll be lucky to post an ERA below 4.00 once in his career.

I've stated all long that he's gonna be a 3. The only reason I'm downplaying him is because of what he wants. No I wouldn't pay close to what he is asking. I think he would be a #4 in our rotation right now, and then move up with development. Theres nothing wrong with that, its just too much money.

 

[jamesx122]

Okay, lets compare tanaka's salary to that of other #3 pitchers at high market organizations(which the majority of scouting reports have him listed as)

Derek Holland, who I'm considering our number 3 for the argument- 3.2 million. This is a POWER LEFTY, not a finesse righty
Ivan Nova- 575,000
Hyun Jin Ryu- 6 million
Clay Buccholz- 5.75 million
Ryan Vogelsong- 6.5 million
mark buerhle (obviously overpaid)- 11 million
brandon mccarthey- 4 million
rick porcello- 3.1 million

You realize there's a difference between a pitcher being the #3 pitcher in the rotation (like he pitches on the third game) and a pitcher who is considered a mid rotation starter based purely on his stuff and numbers.

Also in what world is Holland a #3 in any likely scenario involving the Rangers' rotation?

 

[terpsfball09]

Okay, lets compare tanaka's salary to that of other #3 pitchers at high market organizations(which the majority of scouting reports have him listed as)

Derek Holland, who I'm considering our number 3 for the argument- 3.2 million. This is a POWER LEFTY, not a finesse righty
Ivan Nova- 575,000
Hyun Jin Ryu- 6 million
Clay Buccholz- 5.75 million
Ryan Vogelsong- 6.5 million
mark buerhle (obviously overpaid)- 11 million
brandon mccarthey- 4 million
rick porcello- 3.1 million

You realize there's a difference between a pitcher being the #3 pitcher in the rotation (like he pitches on the third day) and a pitcher who is considered a mid rotation starter based purely on his stuff and numbers.

Also in what world is Holland a #3 in any likely scenario involving the Rangers' rotation?

I put perez ahead of him just because I think he's gonna have a big year. But you can switch them if you like? Really doesnt make that big of a difference.

And yes, I do. You can't use his numbers to base how he'll do here because there is a different philosophy of hitting, as well as different cosmetics as far as mounds, balls, strike zone, etc. There is no way on gods green earth I would pay a pitcher over 17 mil a year when he hasn't thrown one pitch and wouldnt even be an ace for us, and probably wouldnt be our #2 either.

 

[Broseidon]

I put perez ahead of him just because I think he's gonna have a big year. But you can switch them if you like? Really doesnt make that big of a difference.

And yes, I do. You can't use his numbers to base how he'll do here because there is a different philosophy of hitting, as well as different cosmetics as far as mounds, balls, strike zone, etc. There is no way on gods green earth I would pay a pitcher over 17 mil a year when he hasn't thrown one pitch and wouldnt even be an ace for us, and probably wouldnt be our #2 either.

I don't think Texas looks at it as needing a 1, a 2, a 3 etc. If the scouts think he's got TORP ability then put your best offer forward and see if it works. You'd be getting a 25 yr old pitcher without giving up prospects or picks. Of course it's also assuming signing Tanaka wouldn't affect any potential Darvish extension. Although you gotta believe JD wouldn't handcuff himself like that.

 

[terpsfball09]

I don't think Texas looks at it as needing a 1, a 2, a 3 etc. If the scouts think he's got TORP ability then put your best offer forward and see if it works. You'd be getting a 25 yr old pitcher without giving up prospects or picks. Of course it's also assuming signing Tanaka wouldn't affect any potential Darvish extension. Although you gotta believe JD wouldn't handcuff himself like that.

That's the thing though. Regardless of what our scouts think, he is demanding over 17 mil a year, so its gonna affect a lot of future negotiations. I think he's wrth 13 mil a year with 15 as a ceiling. I just don't think its advisable to spend on a pitcher who has a ton of innings in his arm and hasn't even thrown a big league pitch. Darvish was the exception. His mechanics were easily translateable to the mlb level, and he's built like a horse. This guy isn't small, but he's not close to darvish.