2013 Rosterbation

[Heathbar012]

You think so? Never underestimate the deep pocketed owners' stupidity. He's putting up good numbers as a Yankee, they have more $ than god, they like him there...maybe he gets 6 years $100mil

In that ballpark, it might be cost-effective, but almost nowhere else. You think the Yankees are gonna out-bid themselves in this market? They'd be better off bringing Melky back.

 

[msgkings322]

In that ballpark, it might be cost-effective, but almost nowhere else. You think the Yankees are gonna out-bid themselves in this market? They'd be better off bringing Melky back.

Post-roids, and the fact they didn't like Melky before, that ain't happening.

You watch, Swisher will get hella overpaid. Probably in NY, maybe by the Dodgers.

 

[Heathbar012]

Post-roids, and the fact they didn't like Melky before, that ain't happening.

You watch, Swisher will get hella overpaid. Probably in NY, maybe by the Dodgers.

If the Dodgers give Swisher 6 years, $100 mil, I will do a little dance in my cubicle. If the Yanks give him 5/80, I will laugh at them. He should come back to the Bay Area for 3/30, play LF and be stoked.

 

[msgkings322]

If the Dodgers give Swisher 6 years, $100 mil, I will do a little dance in my cubicle. If the Yanks give him 5/80, I will laugh at them. He should come back to the Bay Area for 3/30, play LF and be stoked.

He wouldn't be very stoked watching his HR total plummet here (and in LA and SD)

 

[Mays-Fan]

Major assumptions:

FA's:
Scutaro 2/$12
Pagan 3/$30
Pence 3/$40
OF ??? $8.0 for 2013
Affeldt $4.0
Romo $3.0
Casilla $2.5

SF Giants Payroll 2013 (projected at $138mm-$140mm)

Starters (5)
Timmy $22.0 fixed
Cain $20.0 fixed
Zito $20.0 fixed
Vogey $5.0 fixed
Bum $.75 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $67.75

Bullpen (7)
Lopez $4.25 fixed
Affeldt $4.0 FA
Romo $3.0 FA
Casilla $2.5 FA
3 others $4.0 FA

# Bullpen Subtotal $17.75

C/IF (7)

Buster $2.5 Arb-1
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $0.5 Pre-Arb
Scutaro $6.0 FA (2/12?)
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $5.7 Fixed
Arias $1.0 Arb-1

# C/IF Subtotal $16.7

OF (5)

Pagan $9.0 FA (1st yr of 3/30?)
Pence $12.0 (Arb-3 or 1st yr of 3/40?)
Blanco $0.5 Pre-Arb
Other $8.0 FA
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb

# OF Subtotal $30.0

Huff buyout: $2.0

Prelim Total $134.2 (24 players)

That leaves appx $4mm-6mm for other moves: (a quality 2B/SS, a mid-season acquisition, contingency for injury replacement).

Have at it, people.

 

[msgkings322]

Marty Lurie said something interesting recently re the moves we might do or not do.

He assumed (correctly I think) that it's just too disruptive and weird to bring Melky back for the playoffs.

But if he says the right things and gets right with the team, no reason not to sign him to play LF next year (or 3). He's a legit ML hitter and decent fielder, probably not an allstar post-PEDs. We all learned from years defending Bonds, PEDs can't turn a scrub into an allstar, they just help a guy with talent maximize it. He's still got talent enough to beat out Nady or Blanco for the job.

And with that we might literally have no other moves to make. The rotation is all back, you bring back the pen pretty much as is, with a look at Wilson to see what he's got and maybe a Hembree. The lineup is set (you re-sign Pagan and Scutaro). Sabean can take the winter meetings off!

 

[tzill]

Interesting thought re: Leche. I'd be open to bringing him back, but it sounds like the FO has no interest in it. OTOH, they did bring back Billy Weed, albeit under the cover of "my daughters cough syrup." Thing is, MLB believes his story.

It's a quandry, for sure. The more interesting questions for me are: how much for Herk, Weez, Moped, Affledt, Oxy, KCya, Romo, Riot, MVP, and Shark -- assuming we want to bring them all back.

I'm assuming that we will either pay very little for or not bring back Huffer, Franchez, Weed, Hensley, X, Burris, Petit, Arias.

 

[msgkings322]

Interesting thought re: Leche. I'd be open to bringing him back, but it sounds like the FO has no interest in it. OTOH, they did bring back Billy Weed, albeit under the cover of "my daughters cough syrup." Thing is, MLB believes his story.

It's a quandry, for sure. The more interesting questions for me are: how much for Herk, Weez, Moped, Affledt, Oxy, KCya, Romo, Riot, MVP, and Shark -- assuming we want to bring them all back.

I'm assuming that we will either pay very little for or not bring back Huffer, Franchez, Weed, Hensley, X, Burris, Petit, Arias.

Agreed. But that's what's interesting, it's just how much do we spend to bring the team back, not what changes do we make. If we can bring back the team we have it feels like that's all you have to do.

And Arias to me is a must-have back.

 

[calsnowskier]

I could not care less if Shark comes back. He has not shown enough to warrant any squatters rights, so if he wants back in, he will need to come back on a minor-league deal. Competition will dictate whether he is back or not next year.

Scoots I think will be back. I do not see a 2/12, but maybe a 1/6 or 2/10. I figure 60% he returns.

Arias is kinda in the same boat as Shark, only he HAS earned a guaranteed contract. Will he want to return on a 2/4 type of deal, or will he get more elsewhere?

Weez is really showing that he is a HUGE team guy. H is also immensely marketable. He will be back. I expect a non-tender and a sign for about 3M, and if he is back, there will be some kind of agreement that he will be rewarded on the flip side. Maybe a team option at 10M with a 1M buyout? (just spitballing those numbers)

Regardless, Weez will not be ready to throw at the MLB level until the ASB at the earliest. That opens the door for Hembree and Bochey to get their foot in the door. We will see what develops there.

As for Leche, who knows. I think Boch and Sabes will have discussions with Posey, Pagan, Timmeh, Weez, Cain and Bum (basically, the team leaders) and get their 0.02. I think the players will basically decide if the team pursues him or not. The FA market for LFs is slim, but he is a bigger issue than FA alternatives.

 

[tzill]

Agreed. But that's what's interesting, it's just how much do we spend to bring the team back, not what changes do we make. If we can bring back the team we have it feels like that's all you have to do.

And Arias to me is a must-have back.

I agree re: Kobe, but I don't give him more than $1MM (arb 1). Hence, the "little money" qualifier. In other words, bringing back anybody on that list doesn't really move the payroll needle.

 

[tzill]

I could not care less if Shark comes back. He has not shown enough to warrant any squatters rights, so if he wants back in, he will need to come back on a minor-league deal. Competition will dictate whether he is back or not next year.

Scoots I think will be back. I do not see a 2/12, but maybe a 1/6 or 2/10. I figure 60% he returns.

Arias is kinda in the same boat as Shark, only he HAS earned a guaranteed contract. Will he want to return on a 2/4 type of deal, or will he get more elsewhere?

Weez is really showing that he is a HUGE team guy. H is also immensely marketable. He will be back. I expect a non-tender and a sign for about 3M, and if he is back, there will be some kind of agreement that he will be rewarded on the flip side. Maybe a team option at 10M with a 1M buyout? (just spitballing those numbers)

Regardless, Weez will not be ready to throw at the MLB level until the ASB at the earliest. That opens the door for Hembree and Bochey to get their foot in the door. We will see what develops there.

As for Leche, who knows. I think Boch and Sabes will have discussions with Posey, Pagan, Timmeh, Weez, Cain and Bum (basically, the team leaders) and get their 0.02. I think the players will basically decide if the team pursues him or not. The FA market for LFs is slim, but he is a bigger issue than FA alternatives.

Good post Cal. My thoughts:

Shark: He's a useful fourth or fifth OF. He's got two great tools (speed, defense) that you can't overlook. He's an arb2 guy, so I'm thinking $1.5 on a one year deal. He can get hot for a month at a time and is useful as a PR/defensive replacement as well. Not a "have to have," but not a "fuck him, minor league deal" type either.

Moped: I'd go 2/10...I know he'll be 37 in ST next year, but he's in good shape, handles the glove really well, and can flat out fucking HIT. He starts 2013 and gradually gives way to Panik by 2014. Perfect transition plan, and Moped mentors the young MI (Fish, Kobe, Panik) as a super sub in 2014.

Kobe: As I mentioned in another thread, he's an Arb1 guy and will likely get about $1MM to avoid arb. No multi-year deal for him...yet. We control him; he isn't going anywhere. Worst case, we go to arb and keep him on a one year $2MM deal.

Weez: Agreed. There will be a release and re-sign deal. I think the G's will match whatever he might get on the market, which won't be much given his second TJ. They could tie a lot of compensation to getting a certain number of votes in the Rolaids award, etc. Or, as you say, they could backload a two year deal with an escape team option. (nice thinking btw). I'm thinking maybe $4MM base, $2MM for CY or Rolaids votes, $2MM for playoff MVP, etc. I hadn't read about Weez being out til the ASG, but that makes sense.

Leche: I think the FO will definitely talk to the team leaders -- probably MVP, Cain, and Moped. The Cranium will decide it, though. If Leche wants back, he'd better start reaching out to Boch.

Oxy: He's the priority in the offseason, IMO. Got to lock him up to 3/25 or something close. He can play CF in 2013 and then move to left in 2014 for Brown.

 

[calsnowskier]

Good post Cal. My thoughts:

Shark: He's a useful fourth or fifth OF. He's got two great tools (speed, defense) that you can't overlook. He's an arb2 guy, so I'm thinking $1.5 on a one year deal. He can get hot for a month at a time and is useful as a PR/defensive replacement as well. Not a "have to have," but not a "fuck him, minor league deal" type either.

Moped: I'd go 2/10...I know he'll be 37 in ST next year, but he's in good shape, handles the glove really well, and can flat out fucking HIT. He starts 2013 and gradually gives way to Panik by 2014. Perfect transition plan, and Moped mentors the young MI (Fish, Kobe, Panik) as a super sub in 2014.

Kobe: As I mentioned in another thread, he's an Arb1 guy and will likely get about $1MM to avoid arb. No multi-year deal for him...yet. We control him; he isn't going anywhere. Worst case, we go to arb and keep him on a one year $2MM deal.

Weez: Agreed. There will be a release and re-sign deal. I think the G's will match whatever he might get on the market, which won't be much given his second TJ. They could tie a lot of compensation to getting a certain number of votes in the Rolaids award, etc. Or, as you say, they could backload a two year deal with an escape team option. (nice thinking btw). I'm thinking maybe $4MM base, $2MM for CY or Rolaids votes, $2MM for playoff MVP, etc. I hadn't read about Weez being out til the ASG, but that makes sense.

Leche: I think the FO will definitely talk to the team leaders -- probably MVP, Cain, and Moped. The Cranium will decide it, though. If Leche wants back, he'd better start reaching out to Boch.

Oxy: He's the priority in the offseason, IMO. Got to lock him up to 3/25 or something close. He can play CF in 2013 and then move to left in 2014 for Brown.

I did not think to take team-control into account...

With this thrown into the mix, I agree, they will both (Shark, Kobe) be back. Shark for about 1-1.5M and Kobe for about 2M.

I hadn't read anything on Weez' rehad schedule. I just know from my couch-potato expertise that TJ takes approx 14 month to rehab. That is, however, for a 1st TJ. I have no idea what a 2nd TJ runs.

My ASB estimate was just my guess. I would expect the team to FORCE him to move slowly, though. He is pretty well known to be a freak when it comes to working out, and if left to his own schedule, he would be on the post-season roster.

My mentioning of Oxy as one of the guys the FO needs to talk to indicates my agreement that he is a must-sign.

I was not trying to say that the players would have the FINAL say on Leche coming back. I was just saying that they would have a LOT of say, but Boch/SabeySabes would have say over them, then, of course, Baer would have the FINAL say...

 

[SFGRTB]

I could not care less if Shark comes back. He has not shown enough to warrant any squatters rights, so if he wants back in, he will need to come back on a minor-league deal. Competition will dictate whether he is back or not next year.

Scoots I think will be back. I do not see a 2/12, but maybe a 1/6 or 2/10. I figure 60% he returns.

Arias is kinda in the same boat as Shark, only he HAS earned a guaranteed contract. Will he want to return on a 2/4 type of deal, or will he get more elsewhere?

Weez is really showing that he is a HUGE team guy. H is also immensely marketable. He will be back. I expect a non-tender and a sign for about 3M, and if he is back, there will be some kind of agreement that he will be rewarded on the flip side. Maybe a team option at 10M with a 1M buyout? (just spitballing those numbers)

Regardless, Weez will not be ready to throw at the MLB level until the ASB at the earliest. That opens the door for Hembree and Bochey to get their foot in the door. We will see what develops there.

As for Leche, who knows. I think Boch and Sabes will have discussions with Posey, Pagan, Timmeh, Weez, Cain and Bum (basically, the team leaders) and get their 0.02. I think the players will basically decide if the team pursues him or not. The FA market for LFs is slim, but he is a bigger issue than FA alternatives.

Good post Cal. My thoughts:

Shark: He's a useful fourth or fifth OF. He's got two great tools (speed, defense) that you can't overlook. He's an arb2 guy, so I'm thinking $1.5 on a one year deal. He can get hot for a month at a time and is useful as a PR/defensive replacement as well. Not a "have to have," but not a "fuck him, minor league deal" type either.

Moped: I'd go 2/10...I know he'll be 37 in ST next year, but he's in good shape, handles the glove really well, and can flat out fucking HIT. He starts 2013 and gradually gives way to Panik by 2014. Perfect transition plan, and Moped mentors the young MI (Fish, Kobe, Panik) as a super sub in 2014.

Kobe: As I mentioned in another thread, he's an Arb1 guy and will likely get about $1MM to avoid arb. No multi-year deal for him...yet. We control him; he isn't going anywhere. Worst case, we go to arb and keep him on a one year $2MM deal.

Weez: Agreed. There will be a release and re-sign deal. I think the G's will match whatever he might get on the market, which won't be much given his second TJ. They could tie a lot of compensation to getting a certain number of votes in the Rolaids award, etc. Or, as you say, they could backload a two year deal with an escape team option. (nice thinking btw). I'm thinking maybe $4MM base, $2MM for CY or Rolaids votes, $2MM for playoff MVP, etc. I hadn't read about Weez being out til the ASG, but that makes sense.

Leche: I think the FO will definitely talk to the team leaders -- probably MVP, Cain, and Moped. The Cranium will decide it, though. If Leche wants back, he'd better start reaching out to Boch.

Oxy: He's the priority in the offseason, IMO. Got to lock him up to 3/25 or something close. He can play CF in 2013 and then move to left in 2014 for Brown.

I think both Blanco and Arias return. Peguero clearly isn't ready and Gillaspie/Noonan aren't proven and don't bring enough defensively as Arias does. And both will be very cheap.

I envision Scoot coming back too, 2/10 sounds fair though it'd be a paycut for him. Him and Pagan will be interesting to watch out for this offseason.

ASB for Weez? Seems a little pessimistic to me. Most guys start baseball activities by 8-9 months and can return by 10-12 months later, Wilson had his surgery in April. With him being on his second TJ, I guess we don't really know. But with him being a reliever I think May/June is reasonable. Not being able to throw till the ASB at the earliest? Doubt it.

Cabrera likely won't come back in the playoffs, they like what they have going and don't want to create distractions. But in the offseason, Melky might be able to catch the Giants FO drunk off celebration and ink a contract.

 

[calsnowskier]

I said Weez would not be pitching in SF until about the ASB. I figure he will have quite a bit of time rehabbing and general throwing before that time.

 

[tzill]

Major assumptions:

FA's:
Scutaro 2/$12
Pagan 3/$30
Pence 3/$40
OF ??? $8.0 for 2013
Affeldt $4.0
Romo $3.0
Casilla $2.5

SF Giants Payroll 2013 (projected at $138mm-$140mm)

Starters (5)
Timmy $22.0 fixed
Cain $20.0 fixed
Zito $20.0 fixed
Vogey $5.0 fixed
Bum $.75 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $67.75

Bullpen (7)
Lopez $4.25 fixed
Affeldt $4.0 FA
Romo $3.0 FA
Casilla $2.5 FA
3 others $4.0 FA

# Bullpen Subtotal $17.75

C/IF (7)

Buster $2.5 Arb-1
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $0.5 Pre-Arb
Scutaro $6.0 FA (2/12?)
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $5.7 Fixed
Arias $1.0 Arb-1

# C/IF Subtotal $16.7

OF (5)

Pagan $9.0 FA (1st yr of 3/30?)
Pence $12.0 (Arb-3 or 1st yr of 3/40?)
Blanco $0.5 Pre-Arb
Other $8.0 FA
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb

# OF Subtotal $30.0

Huff buyout: $2.0

Prelim Total $134.2 (24 players)

That leaves appx $4mm-6mm for other moves: (a quality 2B/SS, a mid-season acquisition, contingency for injury replacement).

Have at it, people.

I turned back to this today. I think you're very close, here's my take:

SP
Z 20 fixed
Freak 22.25 fixed
Horse 20.83 fixed
Tron 5 fixed
Bum 0.95 fixed
Total 69.28

RP
Romo 12/3 years; 3-4-5
Loogy 4.25 fixed
KCya 3 (arb 4)
Affeldt 5 (fa)
Weez 4 (arb 4, cut and re-sign)
Mijares 3 (fa)
Total22.25

C
MVP 26/4 years; 2-5-8-11
Chez3 0.5
Total 2.5

IF
Pick 0.5
Moped 12/2 years; 6-6
Panda 5.7 fixed
Fish 0.5
Kobe 1 (arb1)
Riot 2 (fa)
Pill 0.5
Total16.2

OF
Herk 36/3 years; 11-12-13
Oxy 27/3 years; 8-9-10
Melkman 12/2 years; 6-6
Shark 1 (arb2)
Peggs 0.5
Total 26.5

Dead Money: Huff 2 buyout

TOTAL PAYROLL138.73

 

[Heathbar012]

I turned back to this today. I think you're very close, here's my take:

SP
Z 20 fixed
Freak 22.25 fixed
Horse 20.83 fixed
Tron 5 fixed
Bum 0.95 fixed
Total 69.28

RP
Romo 12/3 years; 3-4-5
Loogy 4.25 fixed
KCya 3 (arb 4)
Affeldt 5 (fa)
Weez 4 (arb 4, cut and re-sign)
Mijares 3 (fa)
Total22.25

C
MVP 26/4 years; 2-5-8-11
Chez3 0.5
Total 2.5

IF
Pick 0.5
Moped 12/2 years; 6-6
Panda 5.7 fixed
Fish 0.5
Kobe 1 (arb1)
Riot 2 (fa)
Pill 0.5
Total16.2

OF
Herk 36/3 years; 11-12-13
Oxy 27/3 years; 8-9-10
Melkman 12/2 years; 6-6
Shark 1 (arb2)
Peggs 0.5
Total 26.5

Dead Money: Huff 2 buyout

TOTAL PAYROLL138.73

That's a play-off team for under $140 mil. Take note, MLB.

 

[MarcoPolo]

According to Cot's, Mijares isn't a FA; this would have been his first arb year (he was non-tendered and thus signed as a FA by the Royals) and he's currently earning 925K. If the Giants keep him, he'd be an arb2.

 

[tzill]

According to Cot's, Mijares isn't a FA; this would have been his first arb year (he was non-tendered and thus signed as a FA by the Royals) and he's currently earning 925K. If the Giants keep him, he'd be an arb2.

Interesting; thanks for the correction. How did you figure that? When I was putting together my post, I looked at the Cot's spreadsheet, but Mijares isn't on it. I assume you figured this out from the history of his contracts? How did you arrive at arb2? Is it that he was non-tendered by the Twins last December which indicates his arb1 year was 2012?

 

[MarcoPolo]

Interesting; thanks for the correction. How did you figure that? When I was putting together my post, I looked at the Cot's spreadsheet, but Mijares isn't on it. I assume you figured this out from the history of his contracts? How did you arrive at arb2? Is it that he was non-tendered by the Twins last December which indicates his arb1 year was 2012?

I looked at the spreadsheet and was surprised to see that Mijares wasn't on it. So I looked at the text (the big, long page with all the detailed info), and most specifically at : "ML service: 3.024". He had 3 years and 24 days of ML service time at the start of the season. That would have made him eligible for arbitration for the first time *this* year, but Minn had released him so he was a FA when he signed with KC. At the end of *this* season, he'll have 4.024 of service time, so it *would* have been his 2nd arb year (if he hadn't been a FA last off-season - it's really his FIRST arb year because he was a FA, but "arb2" makes more sense to write, as he'll have just one more season after 2013 {2014, "arb3"} before becoming a FA).

It could have been theoretically possible for him to have been a super-2 and then spend most of last season in the minors, but I checked via baseball-reference.com and he spend ZERO time in the minors last year, and the full season in the majors. So at the beginning of last season he had (somewhere very close to) 2.024 of service time, so he wouldn't have been arb-eligible.

That was the long-winded explanation. I guess the short one is that Cot's lists him as having 3 years and 24 days of ML service time at the beginning of this season, so next season he'll have ~ 4.024 of service time since he spent all of this year in the majors, and I decided to call it "arb2" (even though technically he wasn't arb-eligible last year because he was released by MINN so that they wouldn't have to risk an arbitration hearing).

 

[gp956]

I looked at the spreadsheet and was surprised to see that Mijares wasn't on it. So I looked at the text (the big, long page with all the detailed info), and most specifically at : "ML service: 3.024". He had 3 years and 24 days of ML service time at the start of the season. That would have made him eligible for arbitration for the first time *this* year, but Minn had released him so he was a FA when he signed with KC. At the end of *this* season, he'll have 4.024 of service time, so it *would* have been his 2nd arb year (if he hadn't been a FA last off-season - it's really his FIRST arb year because he was a FA, but "arb2" makes more sense to write, as he'll have just one more season after 2013 {2014, "arb3"} before becoming a FA).

It could have been theoretically possible for him to have been a super-2 and then spend most of last season in the minors, but I checked via baseball-reference.com and he spend ZERO time in the minors last year, and the full season in the majors. So at the beginning of last season he had (somewhere very close to) 2.024 of service time, so he wouldn't have been arb-eligible.

That was the long-winded explanation. I guess the short one is that Cot's lists him as having 3 years and 24 days of ML service time at the beginning of this season, so next season he'll have ~ 4.024 of service time since he spent all of this year in the majors, and I decided to call it "arb2" (even though technically he wasn't arb-eligible last year because he was released by MINN so that they wouldn't have to risk an arbitration hearing).

All that info is on his baseball-ref page:

Jose Manuel Mijares

Position: Pitcher 
Bats: Left, Throws: Left 
Height: 6' 0", Weight: 230 lb.

Born: October 29, 1984 in Caracas, Distrito Federal, Venezuela (Age 27) 
Signed by the Minnesota Twins as an amateur free agent in 2002. (All Transactions)
Debut: September 13, 2008 
Teams (by GP): Twins/Royals/Giants 2008-2012
2013 Contract Status: 1st-Year Arb Eligible, 1 yr/$925k (12) (details) [*]
Service Time (01/2012): 3.024, Arb Eligible: 2013, Free Agent: 2015 [*], Agents: SFX [*]