2013 Rosterbation

[Mays-Fan]

Good post. I agree, the only way the big deals truly work is if you get lucky.

I do think if you have one simple thing missing and a guy available that fixes it, you take the chance. That's where Quentin comes in. 4/40ish isn't a mega deal and we need a real thumper to bat 4th. This is the only move they need to make. That and keep Melky.

Mays, are you saying you wouldn't sign Melky? Because it looks like he will be maybe the #2 or #3 FA hitter on the market.

Our other issue if of course Tim. And no one least of all me knows how that's going to play out.

I would re-sign Melky, but I would do it now, before the bidding war starts.

I would not resign Timmy. I would try to deal him and get what we can. I certainly can't see, at this point, signing him to a Cain-like contract.

I'm not sure Quentin will be worth 4/40 to us. He may be worth more to someone else. I like speed in our park, all else being equal.

 

[SFGRTB]

This is why I strongly oppose signing star-quality free agents. There are posters here who just don't fully understand free market principles. In a free market system, asset (player) prices inflate as competitors bid against one another. Prices inflate until the asset offers only a market rate of return - there are no bargains out there. If a team thinks they see a bargain out there, they bid up the price until the bargain is gone. Further, teams with bigger markets, for example the Yankees, further inflate player prices because players are worth more to them because they get more revenues from them.

In short, it just isn't worth it for us to sign high-priced FA's. Best is to develop players from within, and sign only tactical FA's for shorter terms and lower prices than top-flight FA's.

Agreed on your points...

but isn't it just as risky to invest time and money in prospects and development, which are a complete unknown, than it is to invest much more money in something that is at least established? Look at the Orioles, or the Royals or Pirates, they've taken the wait and see approach and they are some of the biggest losers the last decade. I'm not saying we should go all Yankees style, but I'm just bringing up the point that the investment is risky both ways. I think you need a balance of both, and the Giants have been developing players very well recently, maybe it's time to take the other risk and open up the wallets just a little. Again, I'm not asking for a Yankees offseason, but I think they could afford to do something big.

 

[tzill]

I missed it.

It's good to know that it happens to others too. Not much gets past you, sir.

 

[SF11704]

This is why I strongly oppose signing star-quality free agents. There are posters here who just don't fully understand free market principles. In a free market system, asset (player) prices inflate as competitors bid against one another. Prices inflate until the asset offers only a market rate of return - there are no bargains out there. If a team thinks they see a bargain out there, they bid up the price until the bargain is gone. Further, teams with bigger markets, for example the Yankees, further inflate player prices because players are worth more to them because they get more revenues from them.

In short, it just isn't worth it for us to sign high-priced FA's. Best is to develop players from within, and sign only tactical FA's for shorter terms and lower prices than top-flight FA's.

I agree 100% .... but that is because of the type of team we are and the amount of available funds. Living in NY I see these teams with very different agendas. If you happen to be a team with cash and a very strong player roster you are generally looking for 'a piece' to complete the entire puzzle. These teams are more than willing to overpay for that piece if they feel it will bring them a tittle. Dollar for dollar they will be overpaying ... but in the end they usually get the production that they were expecting.

 

[CameronFrye]

This. Good to have you back, Cam.

Thanks. I spent the past two weeks visiting the wife's family and did so without my laptop in an area where cell phone reception is spotty at best. I felt like I was lost in the wilderness because the only news I got was local television and ESPN (which is almost worse than not getting news at all). Trying to get graphics-heavy pages to load with one bar for data is an exercise in futility. So it was easier to just not come to the boards at all.

I thought for sure Cam would rise to the "30 HR" reference, but must have been trolling too fast, or it was buried in all the verbiage. I was SURE he'd see it, though. It did not effect him in the least.

I had so many threads to read, I honestly skimmed over a lot of the posts. I just missed those references.

And I see what you did there, trying to bait me with poor grammar. I'm not falling for that one either. ;-)

 

[MarcoPolo]

Easy to say now, but did management miss the boat a little on signing Melky?

Of course, this is based without knowing how contract talks are going but I'm pretty sure the Giants fans here at the Hoop were on it regarding his impending free agency before it's become a nationally recognized topic.

Given that OF solutions from the minors are more than a year away, we were hoping to lock down him as a corner back in April/May.

I like Pagan, he's been solid but Melky is such a versatile multi-tool player that I would hate to let get away. This is not just about his hitting. It's his defense and deceptive speed that has really impressed me.

See the "How much would you pay Melky" thread.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Good post. I agree, the only way the big deals truly work is if you get lucky.

I do think if you have one simple thing missing and a guy available that fixes it, you take the chance. That's where Quentin comes in. 4/40ish isn't a mega deal and we need a real thumper to bat 4th. This is the only move they need to make. That and keep Melky.

Mays, are you saying you wouldn't sign Melky? Because it looks like he will be maybe the #2 or #3 FA hitter on the market.

Our other issue if of course Tim. And no one least of all me knows how that's going to play out.

See the "How much would you pay Melky" thread. (Specifically, the "two good months, one monster month" comment.)

 

[TKellion]

C-Posey
1B-Belt
2B-?
SS-Crawford
3B-Sandoval
RF-?
CF-?
LF-Cabrera....I can see us retaining Melky because he is under 30 not gonna guess on how much they pay him.We need right handed power bats in a big way.2B,RF/LF is our options to fill that need.IF Lincecum picks it up in second half could see an offseason trade happen but big if on that one.

 

[msgkings322]

See the "How much would you pay Melky" thread. (Specifically, the "two good months, one monster month" comment.)

You never did answer the 'how much would you pay' question, Marco.

I think I'd be willing to go 4/40 or 3/36.

 

[MarcoPolo]

You never did answer the 'how much would you pay' question, Marco.

I think I'd be willing to go 4/40 or 3/36.

I posted my replay in the "how much ..." thread.

 

[tzill]

You never did answer the 'how much would you pay' question, Marco.

I think I'd be willing to go 4/40 or 3/36.

There's no way he signs for that little. Negotiations START at $15MM per, IMO. The question is: how much more than $15MM is he going to get?

 

[SFGRTB]

There's no way he signs for that little. Negotiations START at $15MM per, IMO. The question is: how much more than $15MM is he going to get?

Don't think so IMO. Negotiations start at $10 million and I think he gets around $12-$13 million. Adam Jones is getting $14 million but he plays CF, is a year younger and had more successful years than Melky. Ethier got $17 million, because he's a "power" hitter, but probably the worst player on this list (and the Dodgers severely overpayed, most agree with that). McCutchen got 6 years $51 million ($8.5 mil per), he's 25 and he's arguably the best player on this list but it was a steal by the Pirates.

Those are just some recent comparisons, and I think Melky fits right in between all these guys. 4 years $48 million is my guess.

 

[MarcoPolo]

McCutchen isn't a good comparison - it's like comparing apples to rocking chairs. It wasn't a free agent (or very-soon-to-be FA) contract - the pirates bought out all of his arbitration years, and 2 post-arb years. The post-arb years are at 13 & 14 million, which are low (provided he continues at lease as good as his recent production level) but what McCutchen got when he signed that contract was FIFTY-ONE MILLION DOLLARS : guaranteed. Just like the contract that MadBum signed was "team friendly" : because he got a massive guaranteed bundle of cash. Maybe each of them could have gotten more (if they don't get hurt or suddenly have "Timmy problems"), but they have money security for the rest of their lives (unless they do really stupid things with their money). And that's why they signed those contracts - it's like life insurance: "piece of mind" no matter how much you end up sucking on the field later on. And both of them, if they continue to be the great players we expect them to be, will have a shot at (at least) one contract later, when they can *really* cash in. IF they continue to excel - if they don't (they got "mediocre" over the last 5 years) then it was really smart of them to get all that guaranteed cash up front, no?

The team gambled, and by guaranteeing a large # of years and a large # of millions, got a "discount price" on what that talent would have cost on the open market - but then it wasn't "open market goods" they were buying.

So McCutchen isn't a good comparison. (Just as MadBum's contract would be a bad yardstick to determine what a #1 starting pitcher should get in FA next year).

 

[MarcoPolo]

PS: Those "lock them up early, lock them up for a looong time" contracts don't always work out. Remember Noah Lowry? Thank God they didn't sign HIM all the way through his last arb year! (Or, rather, that the last year was a club option.)

Even worse : Alex Rios - OUCH!

 

[tzill]

Don't think so IMO. Negotiations start at $10 million and I think he gets around $12-$13 million. Adam Jones is getting $14 million but he plays CF, is a year younger and had more successful years than Melky. Ethier got $17 million, because he's a "power" hitter, but probably the worst player on this list (and the Dodgers severely overpayed, most agree with that). McCutchen got 6 years $51 million ($8.5 mil per), he's 25 and he's arguably the best player on this list but it was a steal by the Pirates.

Those are just some recent comparisons, and I think Melky fits right in between all these guys. 4 years $48 million is my guess.

Adam Jones is a legit comp, so let's look at him and Melky. Melky is having a much better 2012, but Jones has a better career OPS+, is a slightly better defender, and has had a better last three years.

However, you have to look at Jones' contract in context. He signed an extension starting next year for 8.5/13/13/16/16/17. That's a six year deal. You have to disregard the first year of that deal, as that's a buyout of his third arb year and Melky is IN his third arb year now. So, apples to apples, Jones' deal is a five year pact for 75MM or 15MM a year. I said 3/45, which is a lot closer to Jones' deal, IN CONTEXT, than your guess.

And again, Melky is having a much better year than Jones so far. I wouldn't go 5/75 for him, but I would go 3/45 with an option for 2016 and a $5MM buyout. That'll be close to what he gets, unless he ends up winning the batting title/MVP or completely tanking.

As for Ethier and Mac, I don't know for sure, but I suspect you've done the same thing: lumped arb eligible years of their contracts in with their FA years.

 

[tzill]

PS: Those "lock them up early, lock them up for a looong time" contracts don't always work out. Remember Noah Lowry? Thank God they didn't sign HIM all the way through his last arb year! (Or, rather, that the last year was a club option.)

Even worse : Alex Rios - OUCH!

Or, one could argue, signing Timmy last time around to 6/120.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Or, one could argue, signing Timmy last time around to 6/120.

Or how about the 7/175 that was being bandied about? Yikes!

BIG game, IMO, for Timmeh tonight. If he gets rocked again, they should probably DL-15 him.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Ethier's contract this year was a "free agent" contract, in that had he not signed it, he would have been a FA after this season (and the contract starts NEXT year, his first year of free agency).

 

[MarcoPolo]

Or how about the 7/175 that was being bandied about? Yikes!

BIG game, IMO, for Timmeh tonight. If he gets rocked again, they should probably DL-15 him.

It's a good thing for the Giants that Timmy was "more comfortable" signing short-term contracts, eh?

 

[SFGRTB]

Adam Jones is a legit comp, so let's look at him and Melky. Melky is having a much better 2012, but Jones has a better career OPS+, is a slightly better defender, and has had a better last three years.

However, you have to look at Jones' contract in context. He signed an extension starting next year for 8.5/13/13/16/16/17. That's a six year deal. You have to disregard the first year of that deal, as that's a buyout of his third arb year and Melky is IN his third arb year now. So, apples to apples, Jones' deal is a five year pact for 75MM or 15MM a year. I said 3/45, which is a lot closer to Jones' deal, IN CONTEXT, than your guess.

And again, Melky is having a much better year than Jones so far. I wouldn't go 5/75 for him, but I would go 3/45 with an option for 2016 and a $5MM buyout. That'll be close to what he gets, unless he ends up winning the batting title/MVP or completely tanking.

As for Ethier and Mac, I don't know for sure, but I suspect you've done the same thing: lumped arb eligible years of their contracts in with their FA years.

I wouldn't say Melky is having a "much better" year than Jones thus far, Jones OPS+ is dwarfed by Melky's, but Jones has better defensive numbers in CF. Still though, I don't think he'll be getting $15 million+ because he doesn't have the career numbers to back himself up. After some review and re-thought, he should be getting close to Jones, but more in the likes of 3/39 and a 4th year option with a $3 million buyout totaling him to $42 million guaranteed over 3 years, and possibly 4 years $52 million. I think that would be around the most he would get, and it still may be a stretch.