2012 College Football / 2013 NFL Draft

[NinerSickness]

Is that Keith or David's boy?

Who are Keith & David?

 

[NinerSickness]

With that set up you could take Tank in the 1st and Ertz in the second.

Well, I'd much rather take Hankins, Reid, Short, Jesse Wiliams, David Amerson, Hunter, Corey Lemonier, Bray & maybe Jamie Collins over Ertz. I like Ertz, but he's not extremely high on my list.

 

[Sox33OSU]

Who are Keith & David?

or

 

[NinerSickness]

or

lol

It could be either one. The resemblance is uncanny with both of 'em.

 

[badazzk9]

Well, I'd much rather take Hankins, Reid, Short, Jesse Wiliams, David Amerson, Hunter, Corey Lemonier, Bray & maybe Jamie Collins over Ertz. I like Ertz, but he's not extremely high on my list.

Even with the addition of Glenn Dorsey, you'd want to take Hankins?

 

[NinerSickness]

Even with the addition of Glenn Dorsey, you'd want to take Hankins?

Hell to the yes! I think Hankins is tied with Anzah & Milliner as being the best defensive player in the entire draft (It'd be 2nd best if Jarvis Jones didn't have that neck issue). He's an absolute bully, and he's only 21 years old. And with starters already in place, he wouldn't have to play more than 30%-50% of the snaps.

I don't remember the last time people overlooked a DT to this degree. Maybe Wilfork in 2004 (for whom I was also screaming that the Niners should take).

 

[badazzk9]

Hell to the yes! I think Hankins is tied with Anzah & Milliner as being the best defensive player in the entire draft (It'd be 2nd best if Jarvis Jones didn't have that neck issue). He's an absolute bully, and he's only 21 years old. And with starters already in place, he wouldn't have to play more than 30%-50% of the snaps.

I don't remember the last time people overlooked a DT to this degree. Maybe Wilfork in 2004 (for whom I was also screaming that the Niners should take).

I'm curious to find out who you would take in the 1st and 2nd rounds...

 

[NinerSickness]

I'm curious to find out who you would take in the 1st and 2nd rounds...

Well obviously it depends on who's there, but let's just say if the Niners take Tank Carradine at 31, Hankins at 34 and Tyler Bray at 63, I'll be throwing a party.

Eric Reid's another guy I love in the 31-45 range.

 

[badazzk9]

Well obviously it depends on who's there, but let's just say if the Niners take Tank Carradine at 31, Hankins at 34 and Tyler Bray at 63, I'll be throwing a party.

Eric Reid's another guy I love in the 31-45 range.

I'd dig the first two but Tyler Bray in the second for the 9ers I wouldn't excited about it. I do think he is the real deal but there would be a WR, S, or CB I'd take a flyer on. If they could get him in the 3rd I would entertain that.

 

[NinerSickness]

I'm thinking long term. I think in 2 or 3 years, Bray could show enough in the preseason and in limited time he might play that he'd garner a top 10 pick from some team. And it unlikely that the Niners can re-sign guys like Anthony Davis, Crabtree, Terrell Brown & maybe Boone, and with the eventual retirements of Gore & Justin Smith, a high pick like that could get a 5-year blue-chip replacement for one of those guys.

Good QBs are just so valuable, you almost have to take one if he's there at the end of the 2nd round IMO.

In fact, if I were the Chiefs, I would MUCH rather have Bray than Alex Smith. Maybe even Geno Smith too.

 

[badazzk9]

I'm thinking long term. I think in 2 or 3 years, Bray could show enough in the preseason and in limited time he might play that he'd garner a top 10 pick from some team. And it unlikely that the Niners can re-sign guys like Anthony Davis, Crabtree, Terrell Brown & maybe Boone, and with the eventual retirements of Gore & Justin Smith, a high pick like that could get a 5-year blue-chip replacement for one of those guys.

Good QBs are just so valuable, you almost have to take one if he's there at the end of the 2nd round IMO.

In fact, if I were the Chiefs, I would MUCH rather have Bray than Alex Smith. Maybe even Geno Smith too.

I figured that was the reasoning using him for trade bait for the future. I just think those decisions for a talented QB should be in the 3rd. Either way it is a good strategy.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I'm thinking long term. I think in 2 or 3 years, Bray could show enough in the preseason and in limited time he might play that he'd garner a top 10 pick from some team. And it unlikely that the Niners can re-sign guys like Anthony Davis, Crabtree, Terrell Brown & maybe Boone, and with the eventual retirements of Gore & Justin Smith, a high pick like that could get a 5-year blue-chip replacement for one of those guys.

Good QBs are just so valuable, you almost have to take one if he's there at the end of the 2nd round IMO.

In fact, if I were the Chiefs, I would MUCH rather have Bray than Alex Smith. Maybe even Geno Smith too.

What team would trade a top-10 pick for a player who has only played in the preseason or limited time? That's just not realistic at all. If Kap went down and he got some legit playing time, maybe. But barring that, I don't see how his value gets nearly that high.

 

[NinerSickness]

What team would trade a top-10 pick for a player who has only played in the preseason or limited time? That's just not realistic at all. If Kap went down and he got some legit playing time, maybe. But barring that, I don't see how his value gets nearly that high.

You never know. Trent Green was traded for the 12 pick overall. Granted, he played 8 games, but Green isn't half as talented as Tyler Bray.

Heck, even Matt Flynn got a 10 million dollar signing bounus after only getting 1 start. And nobody ever confused him with a top-tier talent.

Teams do some pretty desperate things to get a good QB (see Kevin Kolb).

 

[EaseUrStorm]

What team would trade a top-10 pick for a player who has only played in the preseason or limited time? That's just not realistic at all. If Kap went down and he got some legit playing time, maybe. But barring that, I don't see how his value gets nearly that high.

All I have to say about that is what team in their right mind would trade a top 2nd Rd pick and another high future conditional pick for Alex Smith?

I wouldn't be in favor of burning a 2nd Rd pick on a QB to try to swing a future trade because you probably won't get that value back, but teams do really stupid when it involves new regimes and their QB.

 

[optimist4720]

Present Value of Alex Smith trade

The #34 2nd rd=( 560 pts )+(future value 3rd/2nd=4th/3rd in Present Value) of 200pts est. so approx ~ 760pts. total value= In Present Value terms..like a #23-24 1st rder. . This means that if we traded the package KC gave us (#34+#rd conditional with possibility of #2nd) it should net us around the #23 pick in the 2013 draft. Not advocating a trade out of the package just stating the approx. value of it. Pretty good

 

[Crimsoncrew]

You never know. Trent Green was traded for the 12 pick overall. Granted, he played 8 games, but Green isn't half as talented as Tyler Bray.

Heck, even Matt Flynn got a 10 million dollar signing bounus after only getting 1 start. And nobody ever confused him with a top-tier talent.

Teams do some pretty desperate things to get a good QB (see Kevin Kolb).

A $10 million signing bonus is nothing when we're talking about QBs. The market for Flynn was actually very quiet.

Teams certainly overspend for QBs, in terms of picks and money, but I don't see a team giving up that much unless the draft is devoid of talent in that particular year and Bray actually has a chance to get some legit PT during the regular season. Preseason and garbage time will not get it done.

Ease, as far as Smith, there's little doubt the Chiefs paid a lot. But he's an established NFL starter who will be stepping into a QB-friendly system that fits his strengths pretty well. There is less reward with Smith, perhaps, but also considerably less risk than trading for a backup. And they still gave up FAR less than a top-10 pick for him in one of the weakest QB drafts in recent memory.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

The #34 2nd rd=( 560 pts )+(future value 3rd/2nd=4th/3rd in Present Value) of 200pts est. so approx ~ 760pts. total value= In Present Value terms..like a #23-24 1st rder. . This means that if we traded the package KC gave us (#34+#rd conditional with possibility of #2nd) it should net us around the #23 pick in the 2013 draft. Not advocating a trade out of the package just stating the approx. value of it. Pretty good

Yeah, but using that trade chart a top-10 pick is worth about twice as much as the 23rd.

 

[imac_21]

So 12 years ago Trent Green was traded for the 12th overall pick.

When's the last time a backup QB was traded for a top 10 pick?

How about a back-up QB with virtually no regular season playing time?

 

[optimist4720]

No doubt CC..but considering that most were hoping for a 4th or even a 5th..(I was hoping for the #34 but would have settled for their 3rd(#63) I kinda think we made out like bandits. Props to mgmt. on getting err done > . I like the "even" distribution we have in our picks in this draft..leaves a lot of room to move around either up or down or forward into next year. Right now I would use our good picks rather than trade them into the future since our time is now to win and we have some holes to fill. DE,DT, CB,S,TE(redzone),olb, OT,RB,WR. I would focus 1st pick on pass rush/DL..then CB..and try to catch a S a bit later even with the hole we have there (due to lower absolute position value). Really hope they sign Nnamdi as it gives us a bit more flexibility in the draft and buys us more time to develop someone we draft. I think we draft TE in the 3rd if we stand still (Escobar). I like Fuller or Gragg for the Walker role if we draft one later. JMHO.

 

[NinerSickness]

So 12 years ago Trent Green was traded for the 12th overall pick.

When's the last time a backup QB was traded for a top 10 pick?

How about a back-up QB with virtually no regular season playing time?

We've discussed this ad nauseum in another thread. Let's not re-hash it on this one.

I simply think Harbaugh could turn Bray into at least a top 15 QB in the NFL, if not a top 10 one. If you can get a guy like that with the 15th pick it's a steal, much less the 63rd pick. it's all about investing (I'll explain what I mean by investing in another thread).