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Now that Kawhi has finally signed, most of the offseason moves have wrapped up to the point where we can talk about everything that's transpired. What's everyone winners, losers, and any other thoughts you have?
Winners:
Clippers: Self explanatory. Got arguably the best player in the game right now in Kawhi, snagged an excellent #2 guy to pair with him in Paul George AND STILL managed to keep most of its excellent role players. To put the icing on the cake, all those role players fit perfectly with the 2 stars they brought in. Beverely, Kawhi, and George is an absolute defensive nightmare. This team should be the favorites to win the title.
Lakers: They missed on Kawhi. It sucks. But at this time a year ago, would anyone say you're a loser if you've paired Lebron and Anthony Davis on the same team? Ideally, they would have gotten some better role players to put around them but they got stuck in an impossible situation waiting on Kawhi. He was worth the risk. But the ones they did get should still fit in well enough to make this team contenders.
Sixers: By virtue of their moves and the way the East broke around them, they find themselves arguably the favorites in the East and a real threat to win the NBA Finals. On paper imo, it would have been better to keep Butler, let Harris walk and bring in Horford, but for whatever reason, that Butler/Philly marriage didn't work out. But what they brought back for him (Richardson) along with Horford makes for a very good starting 5. They'll miss JJ Redick and could still use some shooting. It would help immensely if Ben Simmons could learn to shoot any shot beyond 5 feet, but this team is good.
Nets: The rebuild from where they were after KG/Pierce disaster was already impressive, now its somehow even better. Yeah, its a concern that KD never is the same player, but even a hampered KD should still be an all star caliber player. Paired with Kyrie and a slew of good role players, they are championship contenders. They'll just have to wait a year. I will give them a knock for DeAndre Jordan though. He's a declining player and Jarrett Allen is better player than him right now imo.
Jazz: For the first time since the 90s, the Jazz have a serious chance at the championship. This team is DEEP. They got a two way PG they desperately needed in Mike Conley. Bogdanovic is like a superman role player. They are right there with every other contender.
Warriors: This is simply for making the best of a bad situation. D'Angelo Russell might not be a good fit, but he should bring a good return if its doesn't work out. They could have lost KD for nothing. To get anything, let alone a player like D'Lo, is a win. And if Klay comes back healthy sometime before the playoffs, they're still in the mix next year. We've seen how good Klay/Green/Steph can be.
Pelicans: They got an amazing haul for Davis which they then turned parts (#4 pick) into even more pieces. Then made moves to get Redick and Favors. They've got a ton of young players, assets, Zion Williamson, and it all adds up to enough to compete for a playoff spot right away
The NBA and its fans: The league is more open than ever. More teams have a chance to win and contend. Any move whether its getting a star or just a role player could be thing that launches a team to a title with how even some of these rosters are. It's an exciting time
Losers:
Celtics (for now): We know Kyrie was a bad fit. Getting Kemba is a better move. But I'm putting them here because this was a team that had championship aspirations and I can't see them there any more after losing Horford. This has to be especially frustrating since the East opens up a bit more with Toronto taking a step back. I put "for now" here for two reasons. 1) They could potentially add some front court pieces in the coming months that would launch them back up and 2) It's a temporary set back. Their immediate future takes it a hit, but long haul, they should be fine.
Knicks: James Dolan for months acted like he was getting stars and came away with nothing. They somewhat reckless shed cap space for 2 max guys without gaining any safety net assets in return. There was no reason to deal Porzingis at the time they did without knowing they could at least get a star coming there. The only way its not a total disaster is they at least managed to not sign long term deals to C tier free agents. But they did use up a lot of their space on a ton of so-so guys that aren't really attractive to anyone in trades. They appear to just be biding time to try again in 2021 (which they'll probably fail again). They would be better off doing what the Nets did and Atlanta is doing now; using their cap space as a dumping ground for bad contracts while scooping up assets in the process. But its the Knicks, they won't do the smart thing.
Suns: Their offseason moves are plenty questionable (basically gave TJ Warren away for no reason) but this mostly for the fact they have to play the Lakers, Clips, and Warriors multiple times a year as division opponents. Good luck with that.
Neutral (neither good nor bad):
Heat: They traded for Jimmy Butler. But I'm not exactly sure how much better that makes them. The Heat's roster was a mess the last couple of years due some bad contract decisions from 2016, yet the still managed to be a fringe playoff team. Most of those deals were set to expire freeing up space in the coming years (2020, 21). They rid themselves of most of those deals, but also lost a lot of draft capital as well. What I'm saying is I'm not sure netting Butler and being 5th to 7th is all that much better than being 7th to 9th and waiting for those contracts to run out. What makes this mostly neutral is their work is mostly incomplete. Getting Butler should make them more attractive to other stars come the next 2 summers, which is something they couldn't say beforehand. It's harder to lure people when your roster doesn't have any proven guys. They have one now, but there's still work to be done to make it worthwhile.
Misc Thoughts:
-Most surprising (non George trade) move to me personally was JJ Redick to the Pels. From his podcast, I knew Redick lived in Brooklyn and loved it very much. So much so that I figured he'd either remain in Philly (not far from his home) or sign with whatever NY team KD/Kyrie ended up with. Both would keep him close to home and let him chase a ring. He'd also mentioned how he loved LA in the past so I figured he could ring chase with either LA team. Instead, he took a big payday with New Orleans, a borderline playoff team. Just goes to show you not all old vets want rings.
-I'm not entirely sold on OKC's haul being as amazing as most people are saying. People see all the picks and think of the Nets/Celtics trade but that was a different situation. KG/Pierce were already past their primes. Those picks were gonna deliver and be good very soon. The picks OKC are getting have a higher risk of not being worth much. For one, the Miami picks in the early '20s could be mid round picks now that Butler is there. Those Clippers picks will be low with Kawhi/George on the team until the mid 20s when they start getting old. Potentially you're looking at '24 or '25 before you get a nice pick. By then Kawhi will be 35, and you say he could be washed up, but look at Lebron right now. He's 34. Would you say he's washed? Whose to say the Clips won't find younger pieces to pair with Old Kawhi and extend their run? Everyone thinks draft picks are gold. They aren't. They are lottery tickets. They COULD be a million bucks. They could also be garbage. I think OKC should have pushed for more players like Harrell and Shamet, something tangible that you know has value.
-I'm also somewhat uncomfortable with the fact that Kawhi outwardly recruited a player under a multi-year contract with another team. It's not technically tampering but its kinda messed up. I also don't by the fact that OKC was therefore in an impossible situation and had to trade. He was still under contract for 2 more years before he could even think about leaving. Lots can happen in two years. What's he gonna do? Not play and be mad for 2 years? Not likely. What OKC did was fine, but at some point, I think a team is gonna not back down in a situation like this. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out
Winners:
Clippers: Self explanatory. Got arguably the best player in the game right now in Kawhi, snagged an excellent #2 guy to pair with him in Paul George AND STILL managed to keep most of its excellent role players. To put the icing on the cake, all those role players fit perfectly with the 2 stars they brought in. Beverely, Kawhi, and George is an absolute defensive nightmare. This team should be the favorites to win the title.
Lakers: They missed on Kawhi. It sucks. But at this time a year ago, would anyone say you're a loser if you've paired Lebron and Anthony Davis on the same team? Ideally, they would have gotten some better role players to put around them but they got stuck in an impossible situation waiting on Kawhi. He was worth the risk. But the ones they did get should still fit in well enough to make this team contenders.
Sixers: By virtue of their moves and the way the East broke around them, they find themselves arguably the favorites in the East and a real threat to win the NBA Finals. On paper imo, it would have been better to keep Butler, let Harris walk and bring in Horford, but for whatever reason, that Butler/Philly marriage didn't work out. But what they brought back for him (Richardson) along with Horford makes for a very good starting 5. They'll miss JJ Redick and could still use some shooting. It would help immensely if Ben Simmons could learn to shoot any shot beyond 5 feet, but this team is good.
Nets: The rebuild from where they were after KG/Pierce disaster was already impressive, now its somehow even better. Yeah, its a concern that KD never is the same player, but even a hampered KD should still be an all star caliber player. Paired with Kyrie and a slew of good role players, they are championship contenders. They'll just have to wait a year. I will give them a knock for DeAndre Jordan though. He's a declining player and Jarrett Allen is better player than him right now imo.
Jazz: For the first time since the 90s, the Jazz have a serious chance at the championship. This team is DEEP. They got a two way PG they desperately needed in Mike Conley. Bogdanovic is like a superman role player. They are right there with every other contender.
Warriors: This is simply for making the best of a bad situation. D'Angelo Russell might not be a good fit, but he should bring a good return if its doesn't work out. They could have lost KD for nothing. To get anything, let alone a player like D'Lo, is a win. And if Klay comes back healthy sometime before the playoffs, they're still in the mix next year. We've seen how good Klay/Green/Steph can be.
Pelicans: They got an amazing haul for Davis which they then turned parts (#4 pick) into even more pieces. Then made moves to get Redick and Favors. They've got a ton of young players, assets, Zion Williamson, and it all adds up to enough to compete for a playoff spot right away
The NBA and its fans: The league is more open than ever. More teams have a chance to win and contend. Any move whether its getting a star or just a role player could be thing that launches a team to a title with how even some of these rosters are. It's an exciting time
Losers:
Celtics (for now): We know Kyrie was a bad fit. Getting Kemba is a better move. But I'm putting them here because this was a team that had championship aspirations and I can't see them there any more after losing Horford. This has to be especially frustrating since the East opens up a bit more with Toronto taking a step back. I put "for now" here for two reasons. 1) They could potentially add some front court pieces in the coming months that would launch them back up and 2) It's a temporary set back. Their immediate future takes it a hit, but long haul, they should be fine.
Knicks: James Dolan for months acted like he was getting stars and came away with nothing. They somewhat reckless shed cap space for 2 max guys without gaining any safety net assets in return. There was no reason to deal Porzingis at the time they did without knowing they could at least get a star coming there. The only way its not a total disaster is they at least managed to not sign long term deals to C tier free agents. But they did use up a lot of their space on a ton of so-so guys that aren't really attractive to anyone in trades. They appear to just be biding time to try again in 2021 (which they'll probably fail again). They would be better off doing what the Nets did and Atlanta is doing now; using their cap space as a dumping ground for bad contracts while scooping up assets in the process. But its the Knicks, they won't do the smart thing.
Suns: Their offseason moves are plenty questionable (basically gave TJ Warren away for no reason) but this mostly for the fact they have to play the Lakers, Clips, and Warriors multiple times a year as division opponents. Good luck with that.
Neutral (neither good nor bad):
Heat: They traded for Jimmy Butler. But I'm not exactly sure how much better that makes them. The Heat's roster was a mess the last couple of years due some bad contract decisions from 2016, yet the still managed to be a fringe playoff team. Most of those deals were set to expire freeing up space in the coming years (2020, 21). They rid themselves of most of those deals, but also lost a lot of draft capital as well. What I'm saying is I'm not sure netting Butler and being 5th to 7th is all that much better than being 7th to 9th and waiting for those contracts to run out. What makes this mostly neutral is their work is mostly incomplete. Getting Butler should make them more attractive to other stars come the next 2 summers, which is something they couldn't say beforehand. It's harder to lure people when your roster doesn't have any proven guys. They have one now, but there's still work to be done to make it worthwhile.
Misc Thoughts:
-Most surprising (non George trade) move to me personally was JJ Redick to the Pels. From his podcast, I knew Redick lived in Brooklyn and loved it very much. So much so that I figured he'd either remain in Philly (not far from his home) or sign with whatever NY team KD/Kyrie ended up with. Both would keep him close to home and let him chase a ring. He'd also mentioned how he loved LA in the past so I figured he could ring chase with either LA team. Instead, he took a big payday with New Orleans, a borderline playoff team. Just goes to show you not all old vets want rings.
-I'm not entirely sold on OKC's haul being as amazing as most people are saying. People see all the picks and think of the Nets/Celtics trade but that was a different situation. KG/Pierce were already past their primes. Those picks were gonna deliver and be good very soon. The picks OKC are getting have a higher risk of not being worth much. For one, the Miami picks in the early '20s could be mid round picks now that Butler is there. Those Clippers picks will be low with Kawhi/George on the team until the mid 20s when they start getting old. Potentially you're looking at '24 or '25 before you get a nice pick. By then Kawhi will be 35, and you say he could be washed up, but look at Lebron right now. He's 34. Would you say he's washed? Whose to say the Clips won't find younger pieces to pair with Old Kawhi and extend their run? Everyone thinks draft picks are gold. They aren't. They are lottery tickets. They COULD be a million bucks. They could also be garbage. I think OKC should have pushed for more players like Harrell and Shamet, something tangible that you know has value.
-I'm also somewhat uncomfortable with the fact that Kawhi outwardly recruited a player under a multi-year contract with another team. It's not technically tampering but its kinda messed up. I also don't by the fact that OKC was therefore in an impossible situation and had to trade. He was still under contract for 2 more years before he could even think about leaving. Lots can happen in two years. What's he gonna do? Not play and be mad for 2 years? Not likely. What OKC did was fine, but at some point, I think a team is gonna not back down in a situation like this. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out
