2024 DST Position Discussion

[TREFF]

Please share what you find.

I have this hunch that there will be some coaches who - perhaps for the risk of injury - buck the new NFL rules and take a knee, or let the ball roll into the endzone (especially since the kicking team cannot run downfield until the ball hits the ground). Think there will be a learning curve.

On the other hand, the young or innovative coaches (like what @leftypower mentioned about KC) are probably strategizing ways to get optimal field position. Imagine starting at the 40 pr 50 on a possession?!!

Bottom line, i think this has a bigger impact on the game, but also on the fantasy DST position. Think this rule change is gonna create a gap from those that embraced the rule change and those teams that dont see a difference.

Oh fer sure, I wouldn't even do it if not to share here

but yea, every single thing changed, the alignments of the kicking and receiving teams, the position of the ball, the touchback rules..how could there not be a major difference in the way you approach that aspect of the game from a coaching standpoint? Anyone that didn't spend a lot of time devising an entirely new strategy as to that aspect is going to be way far behind those who did (unless those he did also sucked at it)

 

[TREFF]

Ok

So new kickoff rules were designed based off of the XFL rules. Essentially they copied it.

Broad strokes-
XFL had a 97% kick return rate in 2023
NFl had 22%

Now, the XFL, only had ONE return for a TD.
The NFL had 4.

So just raw data, could we expect a return rate of almost 5 times as much? And if we do, could we expect roughly 20 TD's??

Probably not, and even if so, that's less than 1 per team, all year long.

Analysts that I've found predict a range between 55 and 66% of kick returns. I'm predicting much more than that, and I think the talent at the NFL level, and the rules always skewed towards scoring more points, I expect some pretty decent numbers in yardage, maybe not a ton of TD's though.


So if DST'S only score return TD'S and not return yardage, it's not exactly going to turn the tide for anyone


Personally, I have never seen the point in having the 'ST' part of DST, if you're not scoring return yardage though.


And IF that's the case in your league, quantity alone could make a difference between a defense being a 'streamer' vs your weekly starter.

If your league does not include yardage scoring, well, sucks to be you, the rule changes won't be moving any needles

 

[averagejoe]

Awesome stuff @TREFF

Did some simplistic ranking.
I looked at all 32 teams and ranked them based on how they DEFENDED kickoffs. Then did the ranking based on how they well they ran back kickoffs. (Just kickoffs. No punts.)



As you can see, a few of the more elite DST have good rankings with kickoffs and coverage. But some others like Baltimore, KC, Buffalo and Cleveland weren't very good on kickoffs on either side of the coin.

 

[averagejoe]

If your league does not include yardage scoring, well, sucks to be you, the rule changes won't be moving any needles

Probably right. Unless some fantasy site wants to create a new category to award DST points for "starting field position."

 

[Barilko]

@averagejoe always reading.... and appreaciating.... i chime in when i can add anything that i feel may carry a wee bit of signaficance...

thus i'm quiet most times...you and Treff have it well covered

Great Stuff as always....

 

[TREFF]

@averagejoe always reading.... and appreaciating.... i chime in when i can add anything that i feel may carry a wee bit of signaficance...

thus i'm quiet most times...you and Treff have it well covered

Great Stuff as always....we e

Pfft..Joe, will, Smoke, all the guys put in more than me, I just talk shit

 

[Barilko]

Pfft..Joe, will, Smoke, all the guys put in more than me, I just talk shit

@SmokingMonkey and @leftypower and these fellers as well but there is only one Treff style entertainment..

 

[TREFF]

@SmokingMonkey and @leftypower and these fellers as well but there is only one Treff style entertainment..

Well that's true enough

 

[averagejoe]

@TREFF

I cant find the discussion we had about the Cowboys DST (so i'm borrowing this thread)....

They were the 1st DST off the draft board. In just about every league i am in they are being dropped.

 

[TREFF]

@TREFF

I cant find the discussion we had about the Cowboys DST (so i'm borrowing this thread)....

They were the 1st DST off the draft board. In just about every league i am in they are being dropped.

Yep. Without Lawtence, without Parsons, and without the offense jumping out to really leads.. that defense SUCKS. They are built to play with the lead, pressure the qb and force turnovers and that's not what the reality has been.

They're also REALLY missing Quinn

 

[TKOSpikes]

@TREFF

I cant find the discussion we had about the Cowboys DST (so i'm borrowing this thread)....

They were the 1st DST off the draft board. In just about every league i am in they are being dropped.

Yep. Without Lawtence, without Parsons, and without the offense jumping out to really leads.. that defense SUCKS. They are built to play with the lead, pressure the qb and force turnovers and that's not what the reality has been.

They're also REALLY missing Quinn

And their ROS is atrocious looking

 

[TREFF]

And their ROS is atrocious looking

True.. the 2 games vs the Commanders were supposed to be plus matchups.. they are not. Gmen aren't 'as bad' as they should've been either

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Preseason: Dak is gonna have to throw all day cause their RBs suck

Reality: Dak is gonna have to throw all day cause their defense sucks

 

[wildturkey]

@TREFF

I cant find the discussion we had about the Cowboys DST (so i'm borrowing this thread)....

They were the 1st DST off the draft board. In just about every league i am in they are being dropped.

This is why I think its useless to spend a draft pick on a defense until the last couple of rounds. Dallas, like you said, was first off the board, people taking them in the lower middle rounds. They are currently near the bottom for fantasy defenses. The top defenses right now? Minny, GB and Denver. Most I'd wager went undrafted in a lot of leagues. You're wasting a pick on a defense going earlier when you there's still valuable depth pieces out there. You're better off waiting, studying the early season schedule for teams and picking a team you think has an easy schedule, and then monitor the waiver wire each week to see what teams are actually putting up numbers and pick up whoever you need to. There's just too much variance year to year

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Preseason: Dak is gonna have to throw all day cause their RBs suck

Reality: Dak is gonna have to throw all day cause their defense sucks

 

[tlance]

This is why I think its useless to spend a draft pick on a defense until the last couple of rounds. Dallas, like you said, was first off the board, people taking them in the lower middle rounds. They are currently near the bottom for fantasy defenses. The top defenses right now? Minny, GB and Denver. Most I'd wager went undrafted in a lot of leagues. You're wasting a pick on a defense going earlier when you there's still valuable depth pieces out there. You're better off waiting, studying the early season schedule for teams and picking a team you think has an easy schedule, and then monitor the waiver wire each week to see what teams are actually putting up numbers and pick up whoever you need to. There's just too much variance year to year

I disagree.

You just have to pick the right one.

I sometimes pick a defense on the early side. Made that choice in a couple leagues.

Never picked Dallas this year because it was all based off 1 or 2 dominant players. Other defenses and other teams made more sense as early picks.

 

[TREFF]

I disagree.

You just have to pick the right one.

I sometimes pick a defense on the early side. Made that choice in a couple leagues.

Never picked Dallas this year because it was all based off 1 or 2 dominant players. Other defenses and other teams made more sense as early picks.

What he said^^

I fell for the seduction of the flashy numbers.. didn't pay attention to the facts that they never really were great at stopping other teams from gaining yards or scoring, they just generated a bunch of turnovers and sacks.
Get a new DC, an injury or two- all that stops, and your left with a pile of streaming shit.

It's worth a decent pick of the defense is just solid. You know they have a great defensive coach, and they have decent group of talent. and there's always a good 6, 7, 8 of those. And sure a couple of those will have things go to shit for them. And some team or two, who on paper should be shit, will have things work out and surprise.

That doesn't mean it's not worth the draft investment. Saying that Dallas being shit is evidence as to why you shouldn't draft D's is like saying CMAC v Dobbins is evidence as to why you shouldn't draft RB's early, or that Tyreek Hill vs J. Reed is evidence as to why you shouldn't use an early pick on WR's. Sometime your picks just don't plan out, period. Typically those examples are the yearly exceptions, not the rule

 

[tlance]

What he said^^

I fell for the seduction of the flashy numbers.. didn't pay attention to the facts that they never really were great at stopping other teams from gaining yards or scoring, they just generated a bunch of turnovers and sacks.
Get a new DC, an injury or two- all that stops, and your left with a pile of streaming shit.

It's worth a decent pick of the defense is just solid. You know they have a great defensive coach, and they have decent group of talent. and there's always a good 6, 7, 8 of those. And sure a couple of those will have things go to shit for them. And some team or two, who on paper should be shit, will have things work out and surprise.

That doesn't mean it's not worth the draft investment. Saying that Dallas being shit is evidence as to why you shouldn't draft D's is like saying CMAC v Dobbins is evidence as to why you shouldn't draft RB's early, or that Tyreek Hill vs J. Reed is evidence as to why you shouldn't use an early pick on WR's. Sometime your picks just don't plan out, period. Typically those examples are the yearly exceptions, not the rule

Well said Treff.

There are busts at every position in every draft.

I am often faced with the choice of a top DST or a lotto ticket RB/WR.

If I really believe in the RB/WR, I will take them. If I don’t, I take the D.

Whatever I expect has a chance to help my team the most.

And sometimes we are going to get it wrong.

 

[wildturkey]

What he said^^

I fell for the seduction of the flashy numbers.. didn't pay attention to the facts that they never really were great at stopping other teams from gaining yards or scoring, they just generated a bunch of turnovers and sacks.
Get a new DC, an injury or two- all that stops, and your left with a pile of streaming shit.

It's worth a decent pick of the defense is just solid. You know they have a great defensive coach, and they have decent group of talent. and there's always a good 6, 7, 8 of those. And sure a couple of those will have things go to shit for them. And some team or two, who on paper should be shit, will have things work out and surprise.

That doesn't mean it's not worth the draft investment. Saying that Dallas being shit is evidence as to why you shouldn't draft D's is like saying CMAC v Dobbins is evidence as to why you shouldn't draft RB's early, or that Tyreek Hill vs J. Reed is evidence as to why you shouldn't use an early pick on WR's. Sometime your picks just don't plan out, period. Typically those examples are the yearly exceptions, not the rule

The top 3 defenses in drafts were Baltimore, Dallas and SF. Only SF is in the top 5 right now and its not like they are dominant, the other two are bottom third. Where these top defenses were typically drafted you could still get players like Jayden Daniels, Chris Godwin, Brock Bowers, Jake Ferguson, Brian Robinson, etc. Defenses currently in the top were all there if you waited until the final rounds or undrafted. And this happens routinely every year. The difference between having a top defense and a solid one is negligible. It's not going to hurt you. There's 32 teams in the NFL, typically 10 to 12 teams in most fantasy leagues. The chances of finding good defensive performance is in your favor. But what can hurt you in a draft is not having useful depth. When the core of fantasy performance is driven by RBs and pass catchers, you should give yourself the most opportunities to boost that core. The fact that you can stream a defense week to week and have it be a perfectly viable strategy points to this. But its much harder trying to find good RB/WR/TE production on the wire, especially after the first couple of weeks. That why teams that screwed themselves on depth, are top heavy or positionally unbalanced often find themselves fruitlessly chasing production that won't be there consistently.

I'm telling yall the way to get consistently good defensive production is to not put high draft stock in one but draft someone who you think will be good, doesn't have to be the best, just someone good. Then, and this part is key, go to the waivers tab every week and sort by "season avg" and "all players (NOT all available)". Keep tabs on which teams are performing well. Make pick ups accordingly. You don't have to stream week to week either. You'll likely find one that's performing week to week consistently enough to be a sit and forget player. (BTW, this strategy works very well for kickers too)

 

[redskinsfan1963]

There were only 12 TD scored on returns last year. 8 punt TD and 4 kickoff TD.

1 in seattle by the hawks last night.