2024 DST Position Discussion

[TREFF]

Please share what you find.

I have this hunch that there will be some coaches who - perhaps for the risk of injury - buck the new NFL rules and take a knee, or let the ball roll into the endzone (especially since the kicking team cannot run downfield until the ball hits the ground). Think there will be a learning curve.

On the other hand, the young or innovative coaches (like what @leftypower mentioned about KC) are probably strategizing ways to get optimal field position. Imagine starting at the 40 pr 50 on a possession?!!

Bottom line, i think this has a bigger impact on the game, but also on the fantasy DST position. Think this rule change is gonna create a gap from those that embraced the rule change and those teams that dont see a difference.

Oh fer sure, I wouldn't even do it if not to share here

but yea, every single thing changed, the alignments of the kicking and receiving teams, the position of the ball, the touchback rules..how could there not be a major difference in the way you approach that aspect of the game from a coaching standpoint? Anyone that didn't spend a lot of time devising an entirely new strategy as to that aspect is going to be way far behind those who did (unless those he did also sucked at it)

 

[TREFF]

Ok

So new kickoff rules were designed based off of the XFL rules. Essentially they copied it.

Broad strokes-
XFL had a 97% kick return rate in 2023
NFl had 22%

Now, the XFL, only had ONE return for a TD.
The NFL had 4.

So just raw data, could we expect a return rate of almost 5 times as much? And if we do, could we expect roughly 20 TD's??

Probably not, and even if so, that's less than 1 per team, all year long.

Analysts that I've found predict a range between 55 and 66% of kick returns. I'm predicting much more than that, and I think the talent at the NFL level, and the rules always skewed towards scoring more points, I expect some pretty decent numbers in yardage, maybe not a ton of TD's though.


So if DST'S only score return TD'S and not return yardage, it's not exactly going to turn the tide for anyone


Personally, I have never seen the point in having the 'ST' part of DST, if you're not scoring return yardage though.


And IF that's the case in your league, quantity alone could make a difference between a defense being a 'streamer' vs your weekly starter.

If your league does not include yardage scoring, well, sucks to be you, the rule changes won't be moving any needles

 

[averagejoe]

Awesome stuff @TREFF

Did some simplistic ranking.
I looked at all 32 teams and ranked them based on how they DEFENDED kickoffs. Then did the ranking based on how they well they ran back kickoffs. (Just kickoffs. No punts.)



As you can see, a few of the more elite DST have good rankings with kickoffs and coverage. But some others like Baltimore, KC, Buffalo and Cleveland weren't very good on kickoffs on either side of the coin.

 

[averagejoe]

If your league does not include yardage scoring, well, sucks to be you, the rule changes won't be moving any needles

Probably right. Unless some fantasy site wants to create a new category to award DST points for "starting field position."