2024 DST Position Discussion

[SmokingMonkey]

People will also cut good ones during the bye week too, much like kickers. You might find someone that's actually savvy enough to have a top performing defense on a bye and manage their roster in a way where you don't have to cut (ie say put a player ruled out that week on IR to pick up a streaming D just for that week) but its somewhat rare. Even in competitive leagues, they'll get cut.

Now that we're getting into the bye weeks and the early wave of injuries have rolled thru, my redraft rosters don't have anyone that is droppable in order to stash an extra DST. Yahoo let's you drop players that weren't in your starting lineup and it would be great to grab BUF DST for their next few games but not dropping Baker, Evans, Hunt, Juju, Engram, or Najee for a DST

 

[tlance]

No you clearly don't get it. If you draft a defense in 8 or 9 vs the later rounds, that's still 20 to 30 spots ahead. Which is why the analogy works. And you're basing "value" strictly on ADP and not what the actual point values the positions give you. Because if you actually understood what's being talked about, you'd see how drafting a defense in round 8 that miiiight give you 10 pts/week is an overdraft when there's defenses in round 12 that can give you the same or damn close to it. Like literally your own words here are making my case but you still can't see it.

And there is a RB who is undrafted that will outscore the RB you take in round 9.

This is a circular argument.

Frankly though, your tone here is wrong. Telling me that I don’t understand.

The only thing that is wrong is entering a draft with a fixed mindset.

All I said from the top is that I disagree with your assertion that it is a wasted pick. It all depends on what is out there.

And yes, there are defenses that come off the board that do just as well. But you still have to choose the right one.

I understand just fine about value based drafting and positional scarcity. DST’s are very matchup dependent and there are always solid options on the waiver wire.

But I like the security of having a top unit while still playing matchups with a second D that I can stream from the wire when needed.

Almost never roster 2 QBs or TEs unless injuries happen.

The mistake people make is reaching for a defense early, then blindly starting them every week in bad matchups. Or dropping them in a bye week. Or assuming the Dallas defense you drafted in round 10 is a must keep because they were 2nd off the board.

And I’m not doing either.

A 9th or 10th round pick is not a big investment. It is a piece for your team that can help you if managed correctly. Nothing more.

I have read it all, I have played in super competitive leagues against the best of the best and done very well using these strategies.

Don’t tell me I don’t understand.

I just disagree with your opinion.

At the end of the day, once again, it comes down to drafting the right players.

 

[wildturkey]

And there is a RB who is undrafted that will outscore the RB you take in round 9.

This is a circular argument.

Frankly though, your tone here is wrong. Telling me that I don’t understand.

The only thing that is wrong is entering a draft with a fixed mindset.

All I said from the top is that I disagree with your assertion that it is a wasted pick. It all depends on what is out there.

And yes, there are defenses that come off the board that do just as well. But you still have to choose the right one.

I understand just fine about value based drafting and positional scarcity. DST’s are very matchup dependent and there are always solid options on the waiver wire.

But I like the security of having a top unit while still playing matchups with a second D that I can stream from the wire when needed.

Almost never roster 2 QBs or TEs unless injuries happen.

The mistake people make is reaching for a defense early, then blindly starting them every week in bad matchups. Or dropping them in a bye week. Or assuming the Dallas defense you drafted in round 10 is a must keep because they were 2nd off the board.

And I’m not doing either.

A 9th or 10th round pick is not a big investment. It is a piece for your team that can help you if managed correctly. Nothing more.

I have read it all, I have played in super competitive leagues against the best of the best and done very well using these strategies.

Don’t tell me I don’t understand.

I just disagree with your opinion.

At the end of the day, once again, it comes down to drafting the right players.

You disagree, that's fine. But you responding about it shows you want to talk about it. That's the whole point the topic and boards in general. So we talked about it and I addressed specific things you brought up about seeing stuff beyond 1 season and showing you how your own words and logic aren't really working the way you think it does. But now you want to make it about tone because you got nothing else to say but empty platitudes of "just gotta draft the right players". You want to talk about it, let's talk about it. But don't start whining about tone when something doesn't go your way. You, or anyone else that wants to, talk about why its a fine strategy to draft a defense in these middle rounds as opposed to waiting until the late rounds as the experts say, which I agree with from their opinions and actual numbers I've seen. Show why its a benefit and the logic for the strategy of drafting one in the middle rounds (fwiw, I consider middle rounds 5-10, and most early reach defenses I see drafted are between 8-10). But all you've done here is say you disagree and offer empty reasoning. Just gotta draft right is meaningless. Of course you gotta draft the right players, you can say that across any position in any round but that doesn't absolve something that isn't a good strategy. If I draft RBs in the first 5 rounds, then draft 5 WRs and they perform well that season that doesn't mean I had a sound strategy. I just happened to "draft the right players".

There is one thing you just said I disagree with that I want to highlight because its probably where there disconnect is;

A 9th or 10th round pick is not a big investment. It is a piece for your team that can help you if managed correctly. Nothing more.

Depends on the definition of "big" but I do think these are significant picks. It's obviously not a 1 or 2 but these picks fill out your team. Most leagues have QB, 2 RBs, 2 or 3 WRs, Flex, TE. So 5 to 6 picks are RBs and WRs, the bulk of fantasy production. So within 6 rounds of 10, you're drafting starters in these positions. Throw in drafting a QB and TE and now you've taken up 8 of 10 rounds With of injuries, byes, and general boom/bust hit rate, you now have 2 rounds (9 and 10, maybe 8 depending on league) before moving onto the late rounds. So while draft specific, these players are slotted in your bench, realistically you're still drafting starters, people you're expecting play and not just be an upside dart throw pick. These rounds still have a lot value here.

 

[averagejoe]

This has been a good back-n-forth.

As long as I've known tlance, and the domination he has secured over the years, i can honestly say that if he said his strategy was that his pet frogs make his draft picks, with the success he has had, i would head to the nearest pond.

 

[tlance]

You disagree, that's fine. But you responding about it shows you want to talk about it. That's the whole point the topic and boards in general. So we talked about it and I addressed specific things you brought up about seeing stuff beyond 1 season and showing you how your own words and logic aren't really working the way you think it does. But now you want to make it about tone because you got nothing else to say but empty platitudes of "just gotta draft the right players". You want to talk about it, let's talk about it. But don't start whining about tone when something doesn't go your way. You, or anyone else that wants to, talk about why its a fine strategy to draft a defense in these middle rounds as opposed to waiting until the late rounds as the experts say, which I agree with from their opinions and actual numbers I've seen. Show why its a benefit and the logic for the strategy of drafting one in the middle rounds (fwiw, I consider middle rounds 5-10, and most early reach defenses I see drafted are between 8-10). But all you've done here is say you disagree and offer empty reasoning. Just gotta draft right is meaningless. Of course you gotta draft the right players, you can say that across any position in any round but that doesn't absolve something that isn't a good strategy. If I draft RBs in the first 5 rounds, then draft 5 WRs and they perform well that season that doesn't mean I had a sound strategy. I just happened to "draft the right players".

There is one thing you just said I disagree with that I want to highlight because its probably where there disconnect is;



Depends on the definition of "big" but I do think these are significant picks. It's obviously not a 1 or 2 but these picks fill out your team. Most leagues have QB, 2 RBs, 2 or 3 WRs, Flex, TE. So 5 to 6 picks are RBs and WRs, the bulk of fantasy production. So within 6 rounds of 10, you're drafting starters in these positions. Throw in drafting a QB and TE and now you've taken up 8 of 10 rounds With of injuries, byes, and general boom/bust hit rate, you now have 2 rounds (9 and 10, maybe 8 depending on league) before moving onto the late rounds. So while draft specific, these players are slotted in your bench, realistically you're still drafting starters, people you're expecting play and not just be an upside dart throw pick. These rounds still have a lot value here.

Yes, they do have value. Not saying they don’t.

And again, it all depends on what else is going on in the draft.

Probably doesn’t make sense to draft a defense early if you also take a TE and a QB early.

RB and WR depth are essential on any roster. We all know this.

I am not making this pick before I have at least 3-4 bench pieces that I like.

And yeah, I might pick a DST before a QB or a TE.

Depends on what I think I can get later and who I like in those rounds.

But I tell you what…

Let’s make this interesting. Wait a few weeks until most of the byes are done. Then I will go and analyze my competitive leagues and see what percentage of picks taken in rounds 8, 9 and 10 are still on rosters.

I think this data is pretty important to the conversation.

You have to view the likelihood of your Flex dart throw busting as part of the discussion.

 

[wildturkey]

Yes, they do have value. Not saying they don’t.

And again, it all depends on what else is going on in the draft.

Probably doesn’t make sense to draft a defense early if you also take a TE and a QB early.

RB and WR depth are essential on any roster. We all know this.

I am not making this pick before I have at least 3-4 bench pieces that I like.

And yeah, I might pick a DST before a QB or a TE.

Depends on what I think I can get later and who I like in those rounds.

But I tell you what…

Let’s make this interesting. Wait a few weeks until most of the byes are done. Then I will go and analyze my competitive leagues and see what percentage of picks taken in rounds 8, 9 and 10 are still on rosters.

I think this data is pretty important to the conversation.

You have to view the likelihood of your Flex dart throw busting as part of the discussion.

Hold up.

How are you not making this pick (a defense) until you have 3 to 4 bench pieces you like. If you fill your starters in and get 3 to 4 bench players, that means you're most likely picking a defense in like round 12.

 

[tlance]

Hold up.

How are you not making this pick (a defense) until you have 3 to 4 bench pieces you like. If you fill your starters in and get 3 to 4 bench players, that means you're most likely picking a defense in like round 12.

You aren’t hearing what I am saying. You have made assumptions about your interpretations of my words.

I’m never said I was filling all my starters.

2 starting RBs and WRs + 1 flex (5 picks)
3 bench RBs and WRs (3 picks)
1 either QB or TE or another bench RB/WR

Round 10 DST- most common time I would pick a good DST.

You the one saying round 8

I said 9 or 10 from the start.

 

[tlance]

But also, I guess the most important part of my point is this…

The difference between a 9th round and an11th round RB I don’t think is significant either.

And I think you are overplaying it.

Lots of guys getting drafted in those rounds end the season on waivers.

Some make an impact. So do many undrafted players.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Defenses all depend on league rules.. some leagues don't do points and yards, just sacks, interceptions and TDs...

others do points scored and not yards against... also how heavily the fantasy scoring is... some leagues you start with 20 points, others 10, others you start with zero...

since it is so different from league to league, different strategies need to be used...

In most 10-12 team leagues I would rather own a second defense than a second QB or TE... as defensive matchups are king...

really, high scoring defenses more depend on who a team is playing week to week than weather it is an actual good defense...

but on draft day, I don't think there really is any rhyme or reason towards defense... many owners will just take a defense just because they don't like any of the options... and why not get the defense they like??

 

[wildturkey]

You aren’t hearing what I am saying. You have made assumptions about your interpretations of my words.

I’m never said I was filling all my starters.

2 starting RBs and WRs + 1 flex (5 picks)
3 bench RBs and WRs (3 picks)
1 either QB or TE or another bench RB/WR

Round 10 DST- most common time I would pick a good DST.

You the one saying round 8

I said 9 or 10 from the start.

I said the late middle rounds the entire time, 8 thru 10. That's where the top rated defenses for that year going into the draft tend to go. We're still talking about the same rounds here. When you said you were getting bench guys (RBs/WRs and starters, I assumed you meant filling out QB/TE starters too, which would have pushed you passed that. But if you're leaving a QB or TE till later, then it I see what you were doing