2024 DST Position Discussion

[TREFF]

1 in seattle by the hawks last night.

And those f'ers still scored negative in the one league i forgot to change them out

 

[tlance]

The top 3 defenses in drafts were Baltimore, Dallas and SF. Only SF is in the top 5 right now and its not like they are dominant, the other two are bottom third. Where these top defenses were typically drafted you could still get players like Jayden Daniels, Chris Godwin, Brock Bowers, Jake Ferguson, Brian Robinson, etc. Defenses currently in the top were all there if you waited until the final rounds or undrafted. And this happens routinely every year. The difference between having a top defense and a solid one is negligible. It's not going to hurt you. There's 32 teams in the NFL, typically 10 to 12 teams in most fantasy leagues. The chances of finding good defensive performance is in your favor. But what can hurt you in a draft is not having useful depth. When the core of fantasy performance is driven by RBs and pass catchers, you should give yourself the most opportunities to boost that core. The fact that you can stream a defense week to week and have it be a perfectly viable strategy points to this. But its much harder trying to find good RB/WR/TE production on the wire, especially after the first couple of weeks. That why teams that screwed themselves on depth, are top heavy or positionally unbalanced often find themselves fruitlessly chasing production that won't be there consistently.

I'm telling yall the way to get consistently good defensive production is to not put high draft stock in one but draft someone who you think will be good, doesn't have to be the best, just someone good. Then, and this part is key, go to the waivers tab every week and sort by "season avg" and "all players (NOT all available)". Keep tabs on which teams are performing well. Make pick ups accordingly. You don't have to stream week to week either. You'll likely find one that's performing week to week consistently enough to be a sit and forget player. (BTW, this strategy works very well for kickers too)

Christian McCaffery, Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall were the top 3 RBs drafted in most leagues

Tyreke Hill and Ceedee Lamb were the top 2 WRs

Sam Laporta, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews were among the top TEs.

This happens at every position.

You just have to draft the right players.

 

[wildturkey]

Christian McCaffery, Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall were the top 3 RBs drafted in most leagues

Tyreke Hill and Ceedee Lamb were the top 2 WRs

Sam Laporta, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews were among the top TEs.

This happens at every position.

You just have to draft the right players.

So your draft advice is "just draft the right players". How helpful and insightful, lol. The fact that it happens at every position isn't the point. It's the fact that there isn't value in the defenses in spending a higher pick on them compared to others where you can get them and also relative to how fantasy teams are constructed.

 

[tlance]

So your draft advice is "just draft the right players". How helpful and insightful, lol. The fact that it happens at every position isn't the point. It's the fact that there isn't value in the defenses in spending a higher pick on them compared to others where you can get them and also relative to how fantasy teams are constructed.

You are missing the point though.

I have won many leagues by taking a top defense in the late middle rounds.

There absolutely can be value in taking a top defense.

Just hasn’t really panned out for Dallas and Baltimore this season.

Show me data from the top 3-4 defenses over like 10 seasons and then you might be able to make a case.

1 season is way too small a sample size.

The reality is that it greatly depends on league settings and other factors.

You have to factor in that the top defenses get taken when everyone else is drafting backups. And the second and third tier defenses are definitely more likely to miss.

And quite frankly, I see so many “experts” who essentially tell people to ignore the position in drafts and just wait for the last 2 rounds. That is lazy and bad advice that way too many blindly follow.

Value is value.

 

[averagejoe]

1 season is way too small a sample size.

This is pretty much the whole basis for criticizing the early reach on DST on a draft.

Of all of the fantasy positions, the DST does have statistics you can look at to see of a repeat is eminent.

For instance takeaways. Rarely does a DST repeat if they had an excedingly high takeaway rate. Ravens were tops in 2023.

Another is "time of possession." Doesnt matter how good a D is, if their offense doesnt take time off the clock and score, that will eventually tire out a D unit.

The other is personnel. Cowboys lost a few defensive players in free agency. @TREFF and i talked about this in preseason.

To me, the writing was on the wall that some of these "must have" DST were going to frustrate their fantasy owners.

 

[TREFF]

This is pretty much the whole basis for criticizing the early reach on DST on a draft.

Of all of the fantasy positions, the DST does have statistics you can look at to see of a repeat is eminent.

For instance takeaways. Rarely does a DST repeat if they had an excedingly high takeaway rate. Ravens were tops in 2023.

Another is "time of possession." Doesnt matter how good a D is, if their offense doesnt take time off the clock and score, that will eventually tire out a D unit.

The other is personnel. Cowboys lost a few defensive players in free agency. @TREFF and i talked about this in preseason.

To me, the writing was on the wall that some of these "must have" DST were going to frustrate their fantasy owners.

Yep, and I personally have cautioned people against those D's who built their previous success of high turnovers..I do believe the Daints D was a prime example of this multiple times in somewhat recent the past.. but anyways..
I fell for the Dallas D, #1 because I'm a homer, but #2, because the key players that created those turnovers were still there. The pass rush, the ball hawkers in the secondary. That part of the information was good, but I didn't look at the bad.. the new DC specifically, and yes the new interior linemen (who SUCK)- although to be fair it was a 50/50 shot on those guys- if they did pan out, we'd be having a different discussion.. but they didn't

It's not about drafting a D early or not, it's if you're going to, make an informed decision, same as you would any other position. Sometimes that works out, sometimes it doesn't, same as any other position. Sometimes you just didn't use your brain.. like me

 

[tlance]

This is pretty much the whole basis for criticizing the early reach on DST on a draft.

Of all of the fantasy positions, the DST does have statistics you can look at to see of a repeat is eminent.

For instance takeaways. Rarely does a DST repeat if they had an excedingly high takeaway rate. Ravens were tops in 2023.

Another is "time of possession." Doesnt matter how good a D is, if their offense doesnt take time off the clock and score, that will eventually tire out a D unit.

The other is personnel. Cowboys lost a few defensive players in free agency. @TREFF and i talked about this in preseason.

To me, the writing was on the wall that some of these "must have" DST were going to frustrate their fantasy owners.

I look for 2 things, simple as that.

Can you pressure the QB?

Is your team projected to win a lot of games and play with the lead?

Dallas for me had too tumultuous an off season. I ended up with Baltimore a couple times early, and Pittsburgh and KC later

 

[wildturkey]

You are missing the point though.

I have won many leagues by taking a top defense in the late middle rounds.

There absolutely can be value in taking a top defense.

Just hasn’t really panned out for Dallas and Baltimore this season.

Show me data from the top 3-4 defenses over like 10 seasons and then you might be able to make a case.

1 season is way too small a sample size.

The reality is that it greatly depends on league settings and other factors.

You have to factor in that the top defenses get taken when everyone else is drafting backups. And the second and third tier defenses are definitely more likely to miss.

And quite frankly, I see so many “experts” who essentially tell people to ignore the position in drafts and just wait for the last 2 rounds. That is lazy and bad advice that way too many blindly follow.

Value is value.

So you won your league drafting one in the middle rounds? So what? People can win blackjack hitting on 19 but that doesn't make it sound strategy. Drafts for most leagues are what, 15 to 16 rounds? If you're taking a defense before round 12, you're wasting your pick based on value, roster construction and how fantasy football actually works. It could work out for you, but it doesn't mean its smart.

 

[tlance]

So you won your league drafting one in the middle rounds? So what? People can win blackjack hitting on 19 but that doesn't make it sound strategy. Drafts for most leagues are what, 15 to 16 rounds? If you're taking a defense before round 12, you're wasting your pick based on value, roster construction and how fantasy football actually works. It could work out for you, but it doesn't mean its smart.

It is smart.

Value is all about zigging when others are zagging.

The RB and WR you are drafting in round 10 ends up on the waiver wire more often then in your starting lineup.

So taking a defense more likely to hit is actually a very sound play.

 

[broncosmitty]

It is smart.

Value is all about zigging when others are zagging.

The RB and WR you are drafting in round 10 ends up on the waiver wire more often then in your starting lineup.

So taking a defense more likely to hit is actually a very sound play.

Do you ever draft a DST in redraft assuming you’ll keep them all year?

Dynasty I do. But not redraft.

I’ll look at early matchups and for a late bye, but when a string of tough matchups comes along, so does the axe.

 

[wildturkey]

It is smart.

Value is all about zigging when others are zagging.

The RB and WR you are drafting in round 10 ends up on the waiver wire more often then in your starting lineup.

So taking a defense more likely to hit is actually a very sound play.

That's a very crude way of looking at it. Others are zigging grabbing RBs and WRs in round 1 too, better zag and grab QB. That's smart,right? You're thinking of this as taking the chance to grab the "best" while everyone else is doing something else. But what you're actually doing is overvaluing defense and what it actually brings to a fantasy team. A "great" fantasy defense will average like 10 pts each week. A "good" one will get you eight. And there's plenty of good ones out there. That two point difference will not matter round wise or over the course of the season. Then there's so much fluctuation year to year on defenses that the one you drafted as "great" might merely be good and the actual great one went undrafted and 4 other good ones went 2 rounds afer you took yours. Take SF for example. They've been a good real world defense for awhile now. Most people would draft them high as you see them go in the middle rounds in drafts. Here's what they've done recently. 2021 finished 14th (6.9 pts/week), 2022 3rd (9.6), 2023 10th (8.3), and currently 6th (9.5). Fairly consistent points wise but up and down rankings wise. If you want to look over that same span for the best team, its Dallas, finishing 1st or 2nd with around 10 pts each time (except this year obviously). Great, right? Should totally take them where people would draft them in round 8 thru 10. Or...you just take some team later that ends up finishing in 9s ranked in the top 5


Again, the bulk of your team's success comes from RBs/pass catchers. You're not just drafting for depth, you're drafting lotto tickets to pop. He might be a RB3 that you cut in week 3, or he could be a high end RB2 that's giving you solid production every week. To get guys that pop, you need more opportunities. You're much more likely get them drafting guys in the middle rounds than grabbing guy in the late rounds or off waivers later. There are people every year, but its harder. The point of the draft is to give yourself opportunity. If you draft a defense (or back up QBs or TEs whatever) in these rounds, you're denying yourself those opportunities in favor of something that has miminal upside. You're spending your draft capitol on something that doesn't contribute to winning as much as other positions. There's a reason all the actual experts, like the ones whose actual job it is or spend so much time on it like its a job, tell you to wait on defenses. This is why. They aren't just all following along because one guy said do it long ago and no one questioned it. The numbers have been crunched for years and it doesn't pan out

 

[tlance]

Do you ever draft a DST in redraft assuming you’ll keep them all year?

Dynasty I do. But not redraft.

I’ll look at early matchups and for a late bye, but when a string of tough matchups comes along, so does the axe.

We are talking 9th or 10th round.

Nobody I am taking there I am assuming that I am keeping. If they aren’t as good as I thought I am dropping them. Just as I would with a lottery ticket that wasn’t panning out.

Also, I am not blindly starting them in bad matchups. But I am not dropping them with a bad matchup. I am rostering a second D for that matchup.

DSTs can score a lot of points if used correctly. Can flip matchups.

 

[tlance]

That's a very crude way of looking at it. Others are zigging grabbing RBs and WRs in round 1 too, better zag and grab QB. That's smart,right? You're thinking of this as taking the chance to grab the "best" while everyone else is doing something else. But what you're actually doing is overvaluing defense and what it actually brings to a fantasy team. A "great" fantasy defense will average like 10 pts each week. A "good" one will get you eight. And there's plenty of good ones out there. That two point difference will not matter round wise or over the course of the season. Then there's so much fluctuation year to year on defenses that the one you drafted as "great" might merely be good and the actual great one went undrafted and 4 other good ones went 2 rounds afer you took yours. Take SF for example. They've been a good real world defense for awhile now. Most people would draft them high as you see them go in the middle rounds in drafts. Here's what they've done recently. 2021 finished 14th (6.9 pts/week), 2022 3rd (9.6), 2023 10th (8.3), and currently 6th (9.5). Fairly consistent points wise but up and down rankings wise. If you want to look over that same span for the best team, its Dallas, finishing 1st or 2nd with around 10 pts each time (except this year obviously). Great, right? Should totally take them where people would draft them in round 8 thru 10. Or...you just take some team later that ends up finishing in 9s ranked in the top 5


Again, the bulk of your team's success comes from RBs/pass catchers. You're not just drafting for depth, you're drafting lotto tickets to pop. He might be a RB3 that you cut in week 3, or he could be a high end RB2 that's giving you solid production every week. To get guys that pop, you need more opportunities. You're much more likely get them drafting guys in the middle rounds than grabbing guy in the late rounds or off waivers later. There are people every year, but its harder. The point of the draft is to give yourself opportunity. If you draft a defense (or back up QBs or TEs whatever) in these rounds, you're denying yourself those opportunities in favor of something that has miminal upside. You're spending your draft capitol on something that doesn't contribute to winning as much as other positions. There's a reason all the actual experts, like the ones whose actual job it is or spend so much time on it like its a job, tell you to wait on defenses. This is why. They aren't just all following along because one guy said do it long ago and no one questioned it. The numbers have been crunched for years and it doesn't pan out

You do you and I will do me.

I promise you that it is a strategy that can work very well.

All depends on your settings and what others are doing.

Blindly saying you are going to wait on DST is a bad strategy. It is equally bad to say that you are always taking a D early.

You have to take what the draft gives you. That is how you build the best team.

And no, I am never taking a QB in round 1 or 2.

I’m not rostering backup QB or TE aside from deep bench leagues but I actually have found that using 2 roster spots on defense and investing in that position can pay off immensely.

But only if others are treating the position as you do.

 

[tlance]

That's a very crude way of looking at it. Others are zigging grabbing RBs and WRs in round 1 too, better zag and grab QB. That's smart,right? You're thinking of this as taking the chance to grab the "best" while everyone else is doing something else. But what you're actually doing is overvaluing defense and what it actually brings to a fantasy team. A "great" fantasy defense will average like 10 pts each week. A "good" one will get you eight. And there's plenty of good ones out there. That two point difference will not matter round wise or over the course of the season. Then there's so much fluctuation year to year on defenses that the one you drafted as "great" might merely be good and the actual great one went undrafted and 4 other good ones went 2 rounds afer you took yours. Take SF for example. They've been a good real world defense for awhile now. Most people would draft them high as you see them go in the middle rounds in drafts. Here's what they've done recently. 2021 finished 14th (6.9 pts/week), 2022 3rd (9.6), 2023 10th (8.3), and currently 6th (9.5). Fairly consistent points wise but up and down rankings wise. If you want to look over that same span for the best team, its Dallas, finishing 1st or 2nd with around 10 pts each time (except this year obviously). Great, right? Should totally take them where people would draft them in round 8 thru 10. Or...you just take some team later that ends up finishing in 9s ranked in the top 5


Again, the bulk of your team's success comes from RBs/pass catchers. You're not just drafting for depth, you're drafting lotto tickets to pop. He might be a RB3 that you cut in week 3, or he could be a high end RB2 that's giving you solid production every week. To get guys that pop, you need more opportunities. You're much more likely get them drafting guys in the middle rounds than grabbing guy in the late rounds or off waivers later. There are people every year, but its harder. The point of the draft is to give yourself opportunity. If you draft a defense (or back up QBs or TEs whatever) in these rounds, you're denying yourself those opportunities in favor of something that has miminal upside. You're spending your draft capitol on something that doesn't contribute to winning as much as other positions. There's a reason all the actual experts, like the ones whose actual job it is or spend so much time on it like its a job, tell you to wait on defenses. This is why. They aren't just all following along because one guy said do it long ago and no one questioned it. The numbers have been crunched for years and it doesn't pan out

And by the way, your analogy of drafting a QB in the first round does not work.

That would be like drafting a DST in the 5th round and reaching way above ADP.

 

[averagejoe]

For me, i have always had issues with player rankings since the majority of draft rankings are based primarily on the success (or lack of success) from the previous season.

For any of us that have participated in the "None Shall Pass" game, its a given that 50% of top-ranked players wont be on top by season's end.

Acknowledging this, it still may go against your better judgement to deviate from the majority of rankings and make a rogue pick.

This is where you juggle ADP value, ignore or buy into hyped players, and weight your reaches.

 

[wildturkey]

And by the way, your analogy of drafting a QB in the first round does not work.

That would be like drafting a DST in the 5th round and reaching way above ADP.

It does work because I'm using your logic of zigging when others zag. You said you zig to grab the best defense (a singular position) ahead(middle rounds) of where others and the experts say you should (later rounds). Your words, "the value is doing something others or not." So by the same logic, you could grab the best QB (a singular position) in the early round instead of waiting until where other QBs of similar value go in the upper middle rounds. You don't think it works because once again, you're demonstrating you don't understand positional value with respect to how fantasy teams are constructed. Because if you did understand, you'd see how that logic is flawed in both scenarios. You also said you wanted more data because 1 season of Dallas sucking (or some other team) doesn't prove anything. I showed you data over a time span and you still come away with "you do you". You're holding on to the fact that you've taken a defense in these rounds and still done well as proof that it works. No, you had success in spite of it not that you found sound strategy.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I take DST late in drafts for 2 main reasons
- proven statistically to be most volatile season-to-season

The fantasy production isn't very sticky year over year. Sure, there's some Ds that you know will be good, but it doesn't always translate to FF.

- typically easier to swap in and out throughout the season

Even when good units pop early in the season, a couple bad matchups in a row and they'll get tossed back into the pile way quicker than a RB or WR that had a spike week, usually a good chunk of owners are streaming so there's a lot of options cycling weekly

 

[tlance]

It does work because I'm using your logic of zigging when others zag. You said you zig to grab the best defense (a singular position) ahead(middle rounds) of where others and the experts say you should (later rounds). Your words, "the value is doing something others or not." So by the same logic, you could grab the best QB (a singular position) in the early round instead of waiting until where other QBs of similar value go in the upper middle rounds. You don't think it works because once again, you're demonstrating you don't understand positional value with respect to how fantasy teams are constructed. Because if you did understand, you'd see how that logic is flawed in both scenarios. You also said you wanted more data because 1 season of Dallas sucking (or some other team) doesn't prove anything. I showed you data over a time span and you still come away with "you do you". You're holding on to the fact that you've taken a defense in these rounds and still done well as proof that it works. No, you had success in spite of it not that you found sound strategy.

Yes, but you are taking my analogy and misinterpreting it.

You zig when others zag but you still have to get value.

Drafting a QB 20 spots ahead of ADP is bad value. That is a losing play. And I said multiple times you should be seeking the best values, not simply being different to be different.

Not the same.

And you trying to tell me that I don’t understand something relating to fantasy football is hilarious.

 

[wildturkey]

Yes, but you are taking my analogy and misinterpreting it.

You zig when others zag but you still have to get value.

Drafting a QB 20 spots ahead of ADP is bad value. That is a losing play. And I said multiple times you should be seeking the best values, not simply being different to be different.

Not the same.

And you trying to tell me that I don’t understand something relating to fantasy football is hilarious.

No you clearly don't get it. If you draft a defense in 8 or 9 vs the later rounds, that's still 20 to 30 spots ahead. Which is why the analogy works. And you're basing "value" strictly on ADP and not what the actual point values the positions give you. Because if you actually understood what's being talked about, you'd see how drafting a defense in round 8 that miiiight give you 10 pts/week is an overdraft when there's defenses in round 12 that can give you the same or damn close to it. Like literally your own words here are making my case but you still can't see it.

 

[wildturkey]

I take DST late in drafts for 2 main reasons
- proven statistically to be most volatile season-to-season

The fantasy production isn't very sticky year over year. Sure, there's some Ds that you know will be good, but it doesn't always translate to FF.

- typically easier to swap in and out throughout the season

Even when good units pop early in the season, a couple bad matchups in a row and they'll get tossed back into the pile way quicker than a RB or WR that had a spike week, usually a good chunk of owners are streaming so there's a lot of options cycling weekly

People will also cut good ones during the bye week too, much like kickers. You might find someone that's actually savvy enough to have a top performing defense on a bye and manage their roster in a way where you don't have to cut (ie say put a player ruled out that week on IR to pick up a streaming D just for that week) but its somewhat rare. Even in competitive leagues, they'll get cut.