Yankees On Verge Of Signing Jacoby Ellsbury

[redseat]

Though he probably will have more homers since he is now at Yankee Stadium where he doesn't have to try to hit them out of the park.. Fenway he was just playing the wall.

 

[StanMarsh51]

I thought Kuroda was going back to his country and after his shitty performance in September when we had a chance to sneak in as the 2nd WC, I wouldn't care if he did

Which is kind of a silly way to look at it, because his performance the first 4.5 months of the season helped put the Yankees in position to compete in September.

And in his 5 'awful' starts down the stretch (5 games where he gave up 5+ runs), the Yankees scored more than 2 runs in just 1 of those 5 games....so if Kuroda gave up 3 runs in each of those games instead of 5+, the Yankees just win 1 of them.

In other words, it's also silly to pin everything on him....the offense wasn't scoring either.

 

[navamind]

Kuroda has a 125 ERA+ in 421 innings as a Yankee. And he's in his late 30's. He's doing just fine.

 

[PATSOX08]

Good player, but they way over paid and committed to long for his services.

 

[raptorlife4]

Horrible contract

 

[Darkstone42]

Too much money for what Ellsbury brings to the table, especially considering his injury history.

 

[LogicMan]

I think for 3 to 4 years this will be a good deal. Is this a Carl Crawford contract? Perhaps, but its not like the Yankees have options in the Farm.

Now where does Cano go?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I think for 3 to 4 years this will be a good deal. Is this a Carl Crawford contract? Perhaps, but its not like the Yankees have options in the Farm.

Now where does Cano go?

The Mariners.

 

[da55bums]

Ellsbury is young...his injuries are from defensive choices...at that kind of money he is going to let the ball drop first and be healthy his whole contract.

The team is definately building around him, mccann....and remains to be seen.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Ellsbury is young...his injuries are from defensive choices...at that kind of money he is going to let the ball drop first and be healthy his whole contract.

The team is definately building around him, mccann....and remains to be seen.

What? 29 is young? Bullcrap, he will be an albatross within 4 years when those legs give out. He won't be able to prolong his career with just hitting like Beltran has.

 

[da55bums]

What? 29 is young? Bullcrap, he will be an albatross within 4 years when those legs give out. He won't be able to prolong his career with just hitting like Beltran has.

You don't get 24 and 25 yr old guys to build around unless your a small market team...the Yanks have always signed guy after teams lose their control over them...between 27 to 29 to go with players from their minors...thats their history

Everyone says legs give out.....I say Miggy and Fielder will crash at 33 yr and 32 yr old because of bat speed and many say "no way" but Elsbury's legs are going to give out at 33 yr.....right, got it....yes Ellsbury will be washed up at 33 while Miggy and Fielder continue to hit 40 hr a year..give me a break....any player can be washed up at 33 (dale murphy, Fielder #1, Tim Rains, etc) Ellsbury could also end up like Ricky Henderson and still be swiping 50 plus bases a year at the end of his contract.

even Damon hit well there without his legs.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

You don't get 24 and 25 yr old guys to build around unless your a small market team...the Yanks have always signed guy after teams lose their control over them...between 27 to 29 to go with players from their minors...thats their history

Everyone says legs give out.....I say Miggy and Fielder will crash at 33 yr and 32 yr old because of bat speed and many say "no way" but Elsbury's legs are going to give out at 33 yr.....right, got it....yes Ellsbury will be washed up at 33 while Miggy and Fielder continue to hit 40 hr a year..give me a break....any player can be washed up at 33 (dale murphy, Fielder #1, Tim Rains, etc) Ellsbury could also end up like Ricky Henderson and still be swiping 50 plus bases a year at the end of his contract.

Bull, teams that don't have a young talent base choose not to do so, even the Red Sox have guys like Bogaerts to build around beyond next year.

 

[da55bums]

Bull, teams that don't have a young talent base choose not to do so, even the Red Sox have guys like Bogaerts to build around beyond next year.

and the Yankees have chosen not to since FA began...well since Reggie Jackson...that bastard....they always sign the youngest FREE AGENTS, lol...29 is young for a FA.

 

[StanMarsh51]

You don't get 24 and 25 yr old guys to build around unless your a small market team...the Yanks have always signed guy after teams lose their control over them...between 27 to 29 to go with players from their minors...thats their history

Everyone says legs give out.....I say Miggy and Fielder will crash at 33 yr and 32 yr old because of bat speed and many say "no way" but Elsbury's legs are going to give out at 33 yr.....right, got it....yes Ellsbury will be washed up at 33 while Miggy and Fielder continue to hit 40 hr a year..give me a break....any player can be washed up at 33 (dale murphy, Fielder #1, Tim Rains, etc) Ellsbury could also end up like Ricky Henderson and still be swiping 50 plus bases a year at the end of his contract.

even Damon hit well there without his legs.

It's probably better to look at the reduction in steals rather than the total number...it seems like many speedsters tend to see their steals be half of what it used to be, and the decline is moreso sudden than gradual.

• Rickey had only two seasons of 50+ steals after age 32, and while he was consistently stealing 35+, it was a fraction of what is used to be.
• Lofton after age 31 topped out at 32 steals, while in his prime would steal 60+
• Biggio after age had 32 only 1 season of 20+ steal

We could also go into guys like Knoblauch, DeShields, Raines, Grissim, Juan Pierre, Joe Morgan (going old school) etc....all big time stealers until they hit a point in their early 30s or earlier. The only guys I could think of/find who didn't see a sharp decline were Ichiro and Otis Nixon, and both may have benefitted from starting their major league careers late (since the Japanese and minors seasons are shorter so less games logged on those legs of theirs).

So if Ellsbury's stealing 50 now, in just a few years that could be 20 steals a year, and the loss of speed will of course hurt his defensive value....so unless he somehow re-finds his power stroke to fall back on, it's really risky.

 

[Arizona_Sting]

So they won't overpay for Cano, but they overpay for Ellsbury? uhhh

 

[Fountain City Blues]

So they won't overpay for Cano, but they overpay for Ellsbury? uhhh

Doesn't make sense to me either, but oh well.

 

[da55bums]

So they won't overpay for Cano, but they overpay for Ellsbury? uhhh

Cano is off the juice now...Ellsbury got off of it after his 30 hr season, lol, lead to a few injuries...figure Cano is now going to have injury problems....makes complete sense, lol

 

[da55bums]

It's probably better to look at the reduction in steals rather than the total number...it seems like many speedsters tend to see their steals be half of what it used to be, and the decline is moreso sudden than gradual.

• Rickey had only two seasons of 50+ steals after age 32, and while he was consistently stealing 35+, it was a fraction of what is used to be.
• Lofton after age 31 topped out at 32 steals, while in his prime would steal 60+
• Biggio after age had 32 only 1 season of 20+ steal

We could also go into guys like Knoblauch, DeShields, Raines, Grissim, Juan Pierre, Joe Morgan (going old school) etc....all big time stealers until they hit a point in their early 30s or earlier. The only guys I could think of/find who didn't see a sharp decline were Ichiro and Otis Nixon, and both may have benefitted from starting their major league careers late (since the Japanese and minors seasons are shorter so less games logged on those legs of theirs).

So if Ellsbury's stealing 50 now, in just a few years that could be 20 steals a year, and the loss of speed will of course hurt his defensive value....so unless he somehow re-finds his power stroke to fall back on, it's really risky.

Tim Raines seems similar in speed for a fair comparision...with 162 games for ellsbury 70 a season would be his average is about right on....raines last season above 20 sbs....33 yr old...so then he turns into Jonny Damon for the last years of his contract...have no idea what Ellsbury/Damon type number will be worth in 5 years...so I really have no idea if its fair.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

.with 162 games for ellsbury 70 a season would be his average is about right on.

Ellsbury 162 game average for his career is 55 steals a season. It is kind of silly to use 162 game averages though, as he has never played 162 and only played more than 145 twice in his MLB career. 70 steals was his career high in his 2nd full season, so it is definitely not the norm for him.

He is a guy I would love to have hitting leadoff for me, but man, that is a long contract and a lot of money to hope a guy can stay healthy and continue to be productive, when the guy has struggled to stay healthy most of his career.

 

[Cobiemonster]

Yankees also close to signing Kelly Johnson: