Weather will be a factor in Seattle

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"So it was a little wet today at the Seahawks game"

 

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UW game in Seattle

 

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"Somewhere, Coach Pete is like 'no one told me it rained this much in Seattle.'"

 

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[cdumler7]

You are all taking this way to literally. It could gust up to 40mph, but that won't eliminate all passing. You are still going to see the short passing featured in this game on both sides. As hard as they throw it those shorter passes shouldn't be impacted by the wind. Screens and short dump passes, quick slants, short crosses are going to still be a part of both game plans. Even down field throws will still happen, but likely less often and the QB's on both sides will be more cautious about throwing into double coverage. More likely to only see them with single coverage and thrown away from the defender.

Even if you look at tshirts stats nowhere does passing go to zero on them.

As for rain Seattle has played in several rainy games and not had an increase in turnovers. It has been fairly well covered up here that RW has freakishly large hands for his size and has abnormally high control of the ball in wet conditions because of it. They have talked about this every wet game that comes up and was part of the reason he was said to be a perfect fit in Seattle. He is abnormally adept at wet game throwing.

Both teams are likely to run more and that is true. This means an overall lower scoring game which makes it harder for Seattle to cover that 8.5pt spread. Those of you hawk fans betting the farm on this game should consider the moneyline because of it.

The problem with this theory that the weather is going to substantially increase the odds of an upset is Seattle is much better suited for playing in these conditions. The turnover chances in this weather do not equalize it in any way because the Saints are dramatically more likely to suffer turnovers in it given they don't play in these conditions while Seattle has been in both wind and rain and shown they don't suffer in it.

The criticism up here about Seattle's offense over the last couple of months is they have been way too conservative opting to let their defense control a game in exchange for a game plan on offense that favors ball control over yards and scores. This means they have been playing a style meant to prevent fumbles and interceptions for much of the year and now are in a game where that is the required play style. How on earth are they not ready for this?

Until someone posts stats showing Seattle has suffered in this type of condition I'll say you are all in wishful thinking mode. This is the type of weather Seattle is built to play in. Period.

This is where the single elimination side of things come into play though. Yes the Seahawks have done well in this kind of weather and most likely that trend will continue this weekend. I don't think anybody is arguing that side of it. What some of us are trying to point out though in a single elimination game the weather could play a factor in allowing for some fluke plays that say the Seahawks haven't had most of the season. The Broncos are a great example last year where they had given up I think 1 or 2 plays of 50 yards or more all season. Next thing you know they gave up more in 1 game than they did all season long. The same thing could happen here of say a ball bounces off a receivers hands and just so happens to be picked off by the Saints and gives them a short field. Now yes the same thing could happen to the Saints and more times than not would be the case. Like I said though in a single elimination game you just never quite know what could happen especially when you throw in crazy weather. Now having lived in Seattle I remember the wind not being a big deal most of the time so say it is 40 mph this would be something that the Seahawks haven't practiced a whole lot in. Could cause the ball to flutter a little more than expected and also could eliminate some of the crowd noise on the field that would affect the Saints.

There are just a few more variables when you throw in the weather that usually are not present in a game.

 

[WizardHawk]

We get the idea tshirt. You can find lots of pictures of rain in seattle on game day.

Those thinking this substantially improves the odds of an upset simply don't know how Seattle's team is built. You cannot discount that RW has freakishly large hands and has never increased his turnovers in rain at any level of football. Lynch almost never fumbles in any condition. This defense feasts off opportunities and knows how to create turnovers.

Seattle was among the leagues leaders in turnover margins and it's because they are well suited for this style of play. The weather will do nothing to change that. Nothing.

This is not to say that Seattle is a lock to win this game. There is always a chance at the upset. Brees is a future HOF QB and their defense is capable to of causing problems. No one is saying the game is already won, but we are saying the weather actually goes in Seattle's favor given their history in it and their play style while the Saints want to feature the pass much more and will find that more difficult. These are facts you cannot escape from.

The weather favors the Seahawks. PERIOD. However it still also does decrease the likelihood of covering the spread.

 

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beer in the rain

 

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Pete Carroll: "so, we have a forecast of rain?"

 

[WizardHawk]

cdumler7

Yes, neither side is experienced at throwing in 40mph winds. So the team that features the run more would be less affected by it right? This is what we are saying.

Could it increase the odds of the Seahawks having a turnover? Sure, but it increases the Saints odds more making the overall odds more against them doesn't it? There is a risk of a freakish turnover on every play in the NFL. When Seattle is playing a very conservative style of offense by design and has done so much of the season (and most of us fans HATE it) then how does that not favor them when the Saints need passing to be effective and are not used to playing a ground pound conservative style?

When you factor that in this weather threatens to hurt the Saints far more than the Seahawks. Yes, it threatens to hurt either/both of them, but the Saints more.

 

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[cdumler7]

cdumler7

Yes, neither side is experienced at throwing in 40mph winds. So the team that features the run more would be less affected by it right? This is what we are saying.

Could it increase the odds of the Seahawks having a turnover? Sure, but it increases the Saints odds more making the overall odds more against them doesn't it? There is a risk of a freakish turnover on every play in the NFL. When Seattle is playing a very conservative style of offense by design and has done so much of the season (and most of us fans HATE it) then how does that not favor them when the Saints need passing to be effective and are not used to playing a ground pound conservative style?

When you factor that in this weather threatens to hurt the Saints far more than the Seahawks. Yes, it threatens to hurt either/both of them, but the Saints more.

I don't know how to make this any clearer...Yes most likely this benefits the Seahawks. Most likely they win and if I was a betting man I would put money on them to win this game and of the 4 games this weekend would most likely consider this my one lock for a win (don't expect them to cover the spread though). Understand please that this weather most likely benefits the Seahawks not the Saints. We are saying the same thing. All I am saying is since this is a single elimination game the Seahawks would win 9 out of 10 times in this kind of weather but all it takes is that 1 time to be this time. The weather could lead to just a couple of uncharacteristic plays that the Seahawks haven't had all season. A player that never fumbles all of a sudden fumbles. A defensive player slips leaving a wide open receiver for a touchdowns. Things that haven't happened all year that all of a sudden do for that one time. The Saints are expected to lose and most likely will. Anything though that gets thrown in that is a Wild Card plays into the Saints favor because they are expected to lose anyway but with crazy weather a couple of turnovers swings this game their way. Now yes they are even more likely to turn the ball over but say they play that one very clean game and don't turn it over. It does happen every once in a while.

 

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"Raining At century link field for a Seattle Sounders (soccer) game"

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/WeatherNFL/status/421725308186664960[/ame]

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/CAMPcounselor24/status/421719645926592512[/ame]

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/Tuandeezy/status/421708752929058816[/ame]

 

[JDM]

cdumler7

Yes, neither side is experienced at throwing in 40mph winds. So the team that features the run more would be less affected by it right? This is what we are saying.

Could it increase the odds of the Seahawks having a turnover? Sure, but it increases the Saints odds more making the overall odds more against them doesn't it? There is a risk of a freakish turnover on every play in the NFL. When Seattle is playing a very conservative style of offense by design and has done so much of the season (and most of us fans HATE it) then how does that not favor them when the Saints need passing to be effective and are not used to playing a ground pound conservative style?

When you factor that in this weather threatens to hurt the Saints far more than the Seahawks. Yes, it threatens to hurt either/both of them, but the Saints more.

It doesn't increase the saint's odds of turning the ball over more. It increases the odds of both teams at a mostly constant rate. If anything it actually increases the Seahawks' chances of turning the ball over more relative to the saints because fluke plays are more likely and can happen to either team equally, but interceptions from being better positioned are more difficult to catch.

Randomness favors the underdog.

 

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49ers fan

[ame]http://twitter.com/Jasminesf49ers/status/421667710628409346[/ame]

 

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