Weather will be a factor in Seattle

[Pattersonca65]

has Seattle had normal rainfall this year? We've been mired in a drought.

 

[cdumler7]

The focus for both teams will be more toward the run, not just SEA

DUH! That is why it would be a closer game in running usually means less snaps per game because the clock keeps moving and turns more into a field position than high scoring game. That is why little mistakes show up even bigger in games like this such as a possible turnover. Now yes Seattle being used to this weather should help but the weather become a wild card. If Seattle wins it is expected but say they do have a couple of fumbles and inopportune times in the game and NO turns those into points then obviously the weather benefited NO. Now yes it could go the other way and NO fumbles or throws some picks but then the game would go as most expected.

This is one of those NO has nothing to lose kind of games. They lost big earlier in the year. They are the 6 seed going up against what most consider to be the best team in football. With this being a run game it will take the crowd out of it at least a little. Like I said a couple of turnovers in NO favor and this turns into a real game.

 

[tshirt]

over the last two seasons, Saints are 4-7 when playing outdoors

1-3 in 2012 (W 38-17 at a 4-12 Raiders team, L at Green Bay, Denver, and the Giants)

3-4 in 2013 (W 16-14 @Tampa, W 26-18 @Chicago on Week 5/Oct 6, W 26-24 @Eagles, L at New England, at Jets, at Seattle, at Carolina)

 

[WhiteMamba]

over the last two seasons, Saints are 4-7 when playing outdoors

1-3 in 2012 (W 38-17 at a 4-12 Raiders team, L at Green Bay, Denver, and the Giants)

3-4 in 2013 (W 16-14 @Tampa, W 26-18 @Chicago on Week 5/Oct 6, W 26-24 @Eagles, L at New England, at Jets, at Seattle, at Carolina)

so are you guaranteeing a blowout?

 

[SonnyCID]

so are you guaranteeing a blowout?

Maybe he is just using data to make a prediction, not a guarantee?

 

[tshirt]

so are you guaranteeing a blowout?

If I could guarantee the way a game would play out I would be a multibillionaire right now. Like Biff in Back to the Future when he had the book showing him the results of every future game (man I wish I had that)

 

[JDM]

No there isn't. There's an equal chance of any 2 teams having fluky turnovers in bad weather. That's why they're fluky. Again, weather doesn't distinguish between who in Vegas thinks will win.

The point is that extreme weather is an equalizer.

 

[SonnyCID]

The point is that extreme weather is an equalizer.

How does the weather having the same exact effect on both teams level the playing field? If it affected one negatively and one positively, then it could equalize the différence between the teams. But is that the case?

 

[JDM]

It affects both negatively. But it affects the better team more negatively, as they have more they can lose. So, if it was going to be, say 28-14, the weather might make it closer to 14-7. Percentage-wise the impact is the same, but the game becomes closer.

It also increases the chances of turnovers, but at a more constant rate, as all it takes is a gust of wind, or the ball a little too wet, and a good play becomes a bad one. Turnovers are also a very quick equalizer.

 

[tshirt]

DUH! That is why it would be a closer game in running usually means less snaps per game because the clock keeps moving and turns more into a field position than high scoring game. That is why little mistakes show up even bigger in games like this such as a possible turnover. Now yes Seattle being used to this weather should help but the weather become a wild card. If Seattle wins it is expected but say they do have a couple of fumbles and inopportune times in the game and NO turns those into points then obviously the weather benefited NO. Now yes it could go the other way and NO fumbles or throws some picks but then the game would go as most expected.

This is one of those NO has nothing to lose kind of games. They lost big earlier in the year. They are the 6 seed going up against what most consider to be the best team in football. With this being a run game it will take the crowd out of it at least a little. Like I said a couple of turnovers in NO favor and this turns into a real game.

If the Saints had no chance at making the playoffs, this would be a nothing to lose game. But this is the playoffs, the Saints season is over if they lose. Same with Seattle. Plus, Saints have a three chips on their shoulder...one for being told they can't win on the road and can't win outside their comfy dome, two from getting their asses kicked last time in Seattle, and three for getting upset by an inferior Seattle team last time they played a playoff game in Seattle in 2010. From the ESPN article on that game:

"The labels stuck on the seven-win Seattle Seahawks -- jokes, lightweights, laughingstocks -- no longer fit Saturday. That's when Carroll's rowdy crew sent the defending Super Bowl champions packing, pulling one of the most unlikely upsets in playoff history, a 41-36 win over the New Orleans Saints"

so all that should help the Saints normally crappy OL and run game (#25 in NFL in rushing ypc with 3.8) play with more attitude which will help against a Seattle D that is #1 among remaining playoff teams and #7 in the NFL in fewest rushing ypc allowed with 3.9

 

[cdumler7]

If the Saints had no chance at making the playoffs, this would be a nothing to lose game. But this is the playoffs, the Saints season is over if they lose. Same with Seattle. Plus, Saints have a three chips on their shoulder...one for being told they can't win on the road and can't win outside their comfy dome, two from getting their asses kicked last time in Seattle, and three for getting upset by an inferior Seattle team last time they played a playoff game in Seattle in 2010. From the ESPN article on that game:

"The labels stuck on the seven-win Seattle Seahawks -- jokes, lightweights, laughingstocks -- no longer fit Saturday. That's when Carroll's rowdy crew sent the defending Super Bowl champions packing, pulling one of the most unlikely upsets in playoff history, a 41-36 win over the New Orleans Saints"

so all that should help the Saints normally crappy OL and run game (#25 in NFL in rushing ypc with 3.8) play with more attitude which will help against a Seattle D that is #1 among remaining playoff teams and #7 in the NFL in fewest rushing ypc allowed with 3.9

I understand this is the playoffs. The Seahawks though are the most favored team in this weekends set of games. At least I don't see hardly anybody picking the Saints. Turnovers are the great equalizer in the NFL and crazy weather like that which is predicted could play into their favor. Yes it could go the opposite and see them commit the turnovers but then everybody would just be saying that was expected. If Seattle does though then obviously the Saints have a nice chance at the upset. Throw in teams coming off the bye over the last several years have come out somewhat flat and in weather like this that very much could happen. Say the Saints get a 10 point lead in the first because of some turnovers. That then forces Seattle out of their regular game plan of being able to run and use that then for play action. Crazier things have happened in the NFL.

Yes the Saints have a lot to play for as it is the playoffs but I could see them being very aggressive in this one to try and force those turnovers and see if they can 1) take the crowd out of the game and 2) get the Seahawks to go away from their game plan.

 

[Shaqdaddy11]

...and see if they can 1) take the crowd out of the game

You don't know Seahawks fans very well, do you?

 

[cdumler7]

You don't know Seahawks fans very well, do you?

I lived in Seattle for 2 years I know them plenty. Yes I understand they are one of the three best football fans in the country. For a playoff game they will definitely be going crazy. I understand that but the best counter to a good crowd is forcing turnovers and running the football. I am sure the Seattle crowd will still be going crazy throughout the game as they almost always are but even just a little damper on the crowd helps.

 

[gowazzu02]

Not sure why my fellow 12's are getting upset about people saying weather is an equalizer....

Extreme weather is an equalizer. I don't think it plays out as much in the NFL when talent really isn't that different between the haves and have nots.

But if the wind is howling at 40 plus mph, RW wont be able to pass either......

Now if its 5-10 mph and raining I would say Seattle has the advantage against the dome team. But if its monsooning out and 40 plus gusts Nobodys passing. That takes away our "advantage" of being able to play well in Normal rain and wind....

comprende?

 

[Doublejive]

Disagree gowazzu,the Hawk's practice often with wet gloves and simulated rain conditions as most teams do but the Hawks do it far more than the Saint's i have no doubt.

Also consider that the Hawks like said earlier in the thread are a run first team and the Saint's rely on Bree's far more heavily than we rely on Wilson,Wilson can ran better than Bree's by far and then lastly you have the LOB which in adverse weather it is the D that really makes the difference in games like this.

In the end we are all just speculating but during the game watch what happens and what the commentator's say and the sideline coverage i'd wager that they will be repeating what has been said here.

 

[tshirt]

Seattle fans waiting in line yesterday for a giveaway of Seahawk game towels

 

[tshirt]

hope we don't get another weather delay

 

[tshirt]

Doug Baldwin after a TD catch

 

[WizardHawk]

You are all taking this way to literally. It could gust up to 40mph, but that won't eliminate all passing. You are still going to see the short passing featured in this game on both sides. As hard as they throw it those shorter passes shouldn't be impacted by the wind. Screens and short dump passes, quick slants, short crosses are going to still be a part of both game plans. Even down field throws will still happen, but likely less often and the QB's on both sides will be more cautious about throwing into double coverage. More likely to only see them with single coverage and thrown away from the defender.

Even if you look at tshirts stats nowhere does passing go to zero on them.

As for rain Seattle has played in several rainy games and not had an increase in turnovers. It has been fairly well covered up here that RW has freakishly large hands for his size and has abnormally high control of the ball in wet conditions because of it. They have talked about this every wet game that comes up and was part of the reason he was said to be a perfect fit in Seattle. He is abnormally adept at wet game throwing.

Both teams are likely to run more and that is true. This means an overall lower scoring game which makes it harder for Seattle to cover that 8.5pt spread. Those of you hawk fans betting the farm on this game should consider the moneyline because of it.

The problem with this theory that the weather is going to substantially increase the odds of an upset is Seattle is much better suited for playing in these conditions. The turnover chances in this weather do not equalize it in any way because the Saints are dramatically more likely to suffer turnovers in it given they don't play in these conditions while Seattle has been in both wind and rain and shown they don't suffer in it.

The criticism up here about Seattle's offense over the last couple of months is they have been way too conservative opting to let their defense control a game in exchange for a game plan on offense that favors ball control over yards and scores. This means they have been playing a style meant to prevent fumbles and interceptions for much of the year and now are in a game where that is the required play style. How on earth are they not ready for this?

Until someone posts stats showing Seattle has suffered in this type of condition I'll say you are all in wishful thinking mode. This is the type of weather Seattle is built to play in. Period.

 

[tshirt]

"As they say: 'If you don't play in the rain, you don't play!' Go Hawks!"