Weather will be a factor in Seattle

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[ame]http://twitter.com/RellTooTrill/status/421348309195046912[/ame]

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/MarcusBlumberg/status/421350542946746368[/ame]

 

[Mr. Tacoma]

http://twitter.com/Tuandeezy/status/421708752929058816

Thank god you brought Tuan Vu into the conversation. That guy's word is law.https://twitter.com/Tuandeezy

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/TheRealBobbyJax/status/421133181375741952[/ame]

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/esuseboilerup/status/420927582067240962[/ame]

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/TheBrooklynLife/status/420735819885080576[/ame]

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/just_REED/status/420661377934823424[/ame]

 

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49ers fan:

[ame]http://twitter.com/westkid559/status/420659849915928576[/ame]

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/TylerSeratt1/status/419685254753173504[/ame]

 

[WizardHawk]

It doesn't increase the saint's odds of turning the ball over more. It increases the odds of both teams at a mostly constant rate. If anything it actually increases the Seahawks' chances of turning the ball over more relative to the saints because fluke plays are more likely and can happen to either team equally, but interceptions from being better positioned are more difficult to catch.

Randomness favors the underdog.

I don't know what you do for a living, but probabilities and gambling math is a part of what I do for my paycheck. I've worked in the gambling industry for years. Yes, today I'm in the IT side of it, but I had to manage the odds of various games for more than a decade.

I'm telling you point blank that any set of odds where adding a variable that is likely to hurt both sides, but hurts one side more does not EVER favor that side. If we can both accept that this is true then we are only hung up on whether or not there is an equal risk of ruin for both sides in this equation.

The Seahawks play a conservative run first style of play meant to minimize turnovers and sacrifices scoring and yardage for consistency and not allowing the other team to win on momentum changes. They also have much more experience playing in wet weather.

The Saints are a pass first team that has recently added more run, but still relies on the long ball and the skill of the QB/WR's to win games. They are now going to be forced to go away from the style that got them here and reduce their down field throws by some percentage right?

So Seattle is going to play exactly how they have been while the Saints have to modify who they are. Who does that favor?

Which side gets more out of their defense in these conditions? The side that was at the top of the league in takeaways and feasted on stopping the run? Yeah, I'd say so.

So it doesn't matter how much you put on both sides. The risk or ruin is higher for both, but not equally so. It grows higher for the Saints because they have to change who they are and do things they are not as adept at doing. If the risk of ruin goes up more for them than Seattle the overall net is an even greater chance that Seattle wins.

Yes, this weather does increase the odds of Seattle having freak turnovers, but it most certainly increases it more for the Saints. This is pure fact. It doesn't mean that the Saints will for sure have more turnovers. That's not how probabilities works. The Seahawks can still lose and do so based on turnovers, but their risk of doing so is actually less in this weather than in neutral conditions. End of story.

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/Hii__PoWeR/status/421722342293663744[/ame]

 

[gowazzu02]

LOL ok this thread has crossed that point.

EXTREME weather, equals bad news for the hawks. 40 plus mph gusts that eliminates the pass. allows NO to stack the box more then usual without the thread of us beating them over top.

Does normal seattle rain help us? yes, but extreme weather doesn't............

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/PacNorthwest74/status/421703783911915521[/ame]

 

[SonnyCID]

LOL ok this thread has crossed that point.

EXTREME weather, equals bad news for the hawks. 40 plus mph gusts that eliminates the pass. allows NO to stack the box more then usual without the thread of us beating them over top.

Does normal seattle rain help us? yes, but extreme weather doesn't............

40 mph winds dont exactly do many favors for the saints offense either.

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/eric_asher/status/420730336109015040[/ame]

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/jimk89/status/421725077013397505[/ame]

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/jbraddock1020/status/421719748746174464[/ame]

 

[WizardHawk]

40 mph winds dont exactly do many favors for the saints offense either.

People who think like they they do are the reason why our casinos hold 28% on blackjack and have substantially increased profits off games like mini baccarat and roulette after we added the history boards to them.

I'm not sure why this is so complicated, but it would appear we are wasting our time trying to explain the basics of it. Seems pretty straight forward to me that the Saints are going to have to deviate from who they are far more than Seattle will so any net gains they get in Seattle going more one dimensional are more than made up by the Saints having to do it even more.

If the Saints are simply going to stack the box and try to stop Lynch (and god we hope they do. It will leave harvin on screen/dump pass feasts ALL DAY) then wouldn't Seattle do the same thing? I mean we have mother nature taking away what the Saints do best for us and force them into running plays we specialize in stopping. How on earth does that not favor us? I really don't get how they are missing this.

 

[R.J. MacReady]

I don't know what you do for a living, but probabilities and gambling math is a part of what I do for my paycheck. I've worked in the gambling industry for years. Yes, today I'm in the IT side of it, but I had to manage the odds of various games for more than a decade.

I'm telling you point blank that any set of odds where adding a variable that is likely to hurt both sides, but hurts one side more does not EVER favor that side. If we can both accept that this is true then we are only hung up on whether or not there is an equal risk of ruin for both sides in this equation.

The Seahawks play a conservative run first style of play meant to minimize turnovers and sacrifices scoring and yardage for consistency and not allowing the other team to win on momentum changes. They also have much more experience playing in wet weather.

The Saints are a pass first team that has recently added more run, but still relies on the long ball and the skill of the QB/WR's to win games. They are now going to be forced to go away from the style that got them here and reduce their down field throws by some percentage right?

So Seattle is going to play exactly how they have been while the Saints have to modify who they are. Who does that favor?

Which side gets more out of their defense in these conditions? The side that was at the top of the league in takeaways and feasted on stopping the run? Yeah, I'd say so.

So it doesn't matter how much you put on both sides. The risk or ruin is higher for both, but not equally so. It grows higher for the Saints because they have to change who they are and do things they are not as adept at doing. If the risk of ruin goes up more for them than Seattle the overall net is an even greater chance that Seattle wins.

Yes, this weather does increase the odds of Seattle having freak turnovers, but it most certainly increases it more for the Saints. This is pure fact. It doesn't mean that the Saints will for sure have more turnovers. That's not how probabilities works. The Seahawks can still lose and do so based on turnovers, but their risk of doing so is actually less in this weather than in neutral conditions. End of story.

You are making the assumption that you will have the continued success of running the ball in a 1 dimensional offense. Can you really run the ball well all day when they know the run is coming?

You still have the advantage there to a degree ...but this is now a "slower" game. You had a better advantage in a good weather dual threat game.

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/roccomiller8/status/421700716801978370[/ame]

link is to a scouting report on Wilson that says: "He’s very accurate and he has large hands so he should have no trouble holding onto the ball in wet conditions."