Weather will be a factor in Seattle

[R.J. MacReady]

This weather = lower scoring game

Lower scoring game = closer game

Closer game = better chance for the underdog to make plays at the right time and win.



This is why severe weather always favors the underdogs. When a team that was reasonably likely to win by multiple touchdowns and have the game in hand down the stretch is now much more likely to be involved in a one score game, that favors the other team. They may or may not make the one drive they need to at the right time down the stretch, but they have a better shot at that than keeping a game close where they were significantly outmatched by their own merits.

A closer game + randomness favors the underdog.

This is what I'm saying.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Wet conditions is a good thing for Seattle all-around. Wet conditions favor run teams (Seattle), disfavor pass teams (Saints), favor teams much more used to it (Seattle) and disfavor teams much less used to it (Saints)

Let's say both teams were heavy passing teams and neither had ever played in the wind or rain in their lives. Both teams would be at the same disadvantage. It is retarded to say the better team would be at a bigger disadvantage because they are the better team.

You are missing the logical point here. You are trying to compare the 2 teams with equal chances to win in a normal game. That is not the case!

Say team A has a 90% chance to win in normal conditions because they are the better team. And say they played a game in 6 inches of mud and in 100 mph winds at the same time. The conditions would be so bad and it would be such a crap shoot that the game would be almost 50/50 even if that team was a run heavy team. The better and better the conditions get though, the more likely the better team uses actual skill to their advantage.

 

[Doublejive]

 

[Podunkparte]

I was there. It was really cool. A little tense being in one of the uncovered seats up high near the 12th Man flag when there was severe lightning immediately above us, but it was still a pretty cool experience.

 

[WizardHawk]

Couple of things Russell Wilson relies on the deeper ball more than Brees. If you look at yards in the air per attempt Wilson smokes Brees so the Saints Passing game should find more success than that of the Seahawks. Yes having Harvin back should help some but how good is he really going to be with missing essentially the whole season? Throw in how much are they going to let him play since he hasn't had a lot of game experience? I doubt much.

Look you don't seem to be getting almost everybody in here is still predicting the Seahawks to win this game. The weather being thrown in though presents a wild card to both teams. Yes the advantage looks like it favors the Seahawks as they do play in rain and are the better run team and have a good defense. All it takes though is for a few mistakes here and there which can happen in this kind of weather for the Saints to get back in this game. As someone else mentioned the Seahawks in good weather crushed the Saints...not sure you can hope for a better outcome. Now bad weather could help the Seahawks but it could help the Saints too we will just have to see. 9 times out of 10 yes I would say Seahawks win this game but with this being a pressure filled game and the Seahawks being a young inexperienced team I could see this going the way of the Saints as well.

First, Harvin is a full go. He has played in every snap of every practice this last week and all but one drill the prior week. Both he and Carroll have said there is NO RESTRICTIONS of any kind on his game play. That was one of Carroll's benchmarks for playing him at all. Either he could have him fully or not at all. Unless you think they are lying then Harvin will have full game time.

You did see the only game Harvin was in for Seatle right? He had one circus catch and a kickoff return past the 50 on only a handful of plays. He will have an impact and there is little doubt. Also he will command the defenses attention which will allow the other WR's to get open far easier and allow them better looks.

I'm not denying Seattle will be impacted in their passing game, but I still stand by the fact that they are now, and have been all season, a run first team and that sets up nicely in this weather. Brees will then either have to face those conditions more, or change their identity which both favors Seattle.

And trust me, I get that you aren't saying you now expect the Saints to win. I haven't been saying that. I already qualified my statements by saying I'm a bit of a probabilities junkie as I have worked on that in my job for many years. I'm simply looking at this in terms of overall impact to both teams risk or ruin (or risk of loss if you prefer) in this weather vs neutral weather. I see things differently than some up here and that's fine. I've made my case in a fairly detailed way and have yet to read anything that refutes any of the major points. All I'm seeing as a counter (not by you) is that lower scoring games favor the underdog by default which I haven't seen any of them post any facts to backup so I'm simply discounting that as opinion and leaving it at that. I know what they are saying, but I don't agree with it as a blanket premise. If you increase the overall chance of a team making unforced errors because they are going away from who they are more than the other team I think that overshadows whatever your feelings are about low score underdogs and that's my stance.

Now, I'm running a high fever and still have to go get ready to go fix a server that is down at work. Time to go do something more productive. Enjoy your day and let us all hope the games this weekend are exciting and none of the teams end up with any injuries.

Go Hawks.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

I don't know what you do for a living, but probabilities and gambling math is a part of what I do for my paycheck. I've worked in the gambling industry for years. Yes, today I'm in the IT side of it, but I had to manage the odds of various games for more than a decade.

I'm telling you point blank that any set of odds where adding a variable that is likely to hurt both sides, but hurts one side more does not EVER favor that side. If we can both accept that this is true then we are only hung up on whether or not there is an equal risk of ruin for both sides in this equation.

The Seahawks play a conservative run first style of play meant to minimize turnovers and sacrifices scoring and yardage for consistency and not allowing the other team to win on momentum changes. They also have much more experience playing in wet weather.

The Saints are a pass first team that has recently added more run, but still relies on the long ball and the skill of the QB/WR's to win games. They are now going to be forced to go away from the style that got them here and reduce their down field throws by some percentage right?

So Seattle is going to play exactly how they have been while the Saints have to modify who they are. Who does that favor?

Which side gets more out of their defense in these conditions? The side that was at the top of the league in takeaways and feasted on stopping the run? Yeah, I'd say so.

So it doesn't matter how much you put on both sides. The risk or ruin is higher for both, but not equally so. It grows higher for the Saints because they have to change who they are and do things they are not as adept at doing. If the risk of ruin goes up more for them than Seattle the overall net is an even greater chance that Seattle wins.

Yes, this weather does increase the odds of Seattle having freak turnovers, but it most certainly increases it more for the Saints. This is pure fact. It doesn't mean that the Saints will for sure have more turnovers. That's not how probabilities works. The Seahawks can still lose and do so based on turnovers, but their risk of doing so is actually less in this weather than in neutral conditions. End of story.

Explain why the betting line has not gone more in Seattles favor then?

 

[Podunkparte]

Couple of things Russell Wilson relies on the deeper ball more than Brees. If you look at yards in the air per attempt Wilson smokes Brees so the Saints Passing game should find more success than that of the Seahawks. Yes having Harvin back should help some but how good is he really going to be with missing essentially the whole season? Throw in how much are they going to let him play since he hasn't had a lot of game experience? I doubt much.

Look you don't seem to be getting almost everybody in here is still predicting the Seahawks to win this game. The weather being thrown in though presents a wild card to both teams. Yes the advantage looks like it favors the Seahawks as they do play in rain and are the better run team and have a good defense. All it takes though is for a few mistakes here and there which can happen in this kind of weather for the Saints to get back in this game. As someone else mentioned the Seahawks in good weather crushed the Saints...not sure you can hope for a better outcome. Now bad weather could help the Seahawks but it could help the Saints too we will just have to see. 9 times out of 10 yes I would say Seahawks win this game but with this being a pressure filled game and the Seahawks being a young inexperienced team I could see this going the way of the Saints as well.

Wilson averages 25 pass attempts per game. Brees averages 40. You don't think this has a huge effect on what looks like Seattle's reliance on the deep pass? The fact is the Saints as a team rely much more on the passing game than Seattle does and that is a big disadvantage against the best pass defense in the league in bad weather.

Also, based on what Harvin did in his very brief appearance this year against Minnesota, he's going to have a very noticeable effect on this game. He's a game changing play maker and doesn't need much to break a big play. I don't know what more I can say to convince you (probably nothing) but your assessment of these points is pretty far off IMO.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

First, Harvin is a full go. He has played in every snap of every practice this last week and all but one drill the prior week. Both he and Carroll have said there is NO RESTRICTIONS of any kind on his game play. That was one of Carroll's benchmarks for playing him at all. Either he could have him fully or not at all. Unless you think they are lying then Harvin will have full game time.

You did see the only game Harvin was in for Seatle right? He had one circus catch and a kickoff return past the 50 on only a handful of plays. He will have an impact and there is little doubt. Also he will command the defenses attention which will allow the other WR's to get open far easier and allow them better looks.

I'm not denying Seattle will be impacted in their passing game, but I still stand by the fact that they are now, and have been all season, a run first team and that sets up nicely in this weather. Brees will then either have to face those conditions more, or change their identity which both favors Seattle.

And trust me, I get that you aren't saying you now expect the Saints to win. I haven't been saying that. I already qualified my statements by saying I'm a bit of a probabilities junkie as I have worked on that in my job for many years. I'm simply looking at this in terms of overall impact to both teams risk or ruin (or risk of loss if you prefer) in this weather vs neutral weather. I see things differently than some up here and that's fine. I've made my case in a fairly detailed way and have yet to read anything that refutes any of the major points. All I'm seeing as a counter (not by you) is that lower scoring games favor the underdog by default which I haven't seen any of them post any facts to backup so I'm simply discounting that as opinion and leaving it at that. I know what they are saying, but I don't agree with it as a blanket premise. If you increase the overall chance of a team making unforced errors because they are going away from who they are more than the other team I think that overshadows whatever your feelings are about low score underdogs and that's my stance.

Now, I'm running a high fever and still have to go get ready to go fix a server that is down at work. Time to go do something more productive. Enjoy your day and let us all hope the games this weekend are exciting and none of the teams end up with any injuries.

Go Hawks.

Are you more likely to win a game in which:

A) you are trailing 37-20 at the 2 minute warning with the losing QB throwing 2 TDs and 1 INT

Or...

B) you are trailing 10-6 at the 2 minute warning with the losing QB throwing 0 TD and 3 INT?

Yeah... That's what I thought

 

[WizardHawk]

Explain why the betting line has not gone more in Seattles favor then?

Wait, you believe the betting line has anything to do with overall odds of winning? Well there's our problem right there.

That's not how vegas works man. Those lines move to keep more or less equal action on both sides so they make money no matter who wins. At best it shows bettor confidence, but is no real measure of overall odds. there are value bets all over if you look for them so that means often the odds are not in line with the spread doesn't it? I'm guessing you don't bet on sports much, or if you do it hasn't worked out so well for you?

 

[WizardHawk]

Are you more likely to win a game in which:

A) you are trailing 37-20 at the 2 minute warning with the losing QB throwing 2 TDs and 1 INT

Or...

B) you are trailing 10-6 at the 2 minute warning with the losing QB throwing 0 TD and 3 INT?

Yeah... That's what I thought

And are you more likely to win a game in which the other team has a higher chance of not being close in a low scoring game because their risk of turnovers and other unforced errors is higher?

Yeah.... That's what I thought

I'm saying I agree the overall score may be lower, but there is a much greater chance that the Saints are impacted by the weather which helps ensure the Seahawks have better momentum and a greater chance of winning. Until you refute that your points are entirely moot.

 

[Doublejive]

I was there. It was really cool. A little tense being in one of the uncovered seats up high near the 12th Man flag when there was severe lightning immediately above us, but it was still a pretty cool experience.

Me and buddy's used to say back in high school a true test of girls to party with if they would not leave if the rain and thunder started while having a kegger in the woods.

 

[tshirt]

ESPN:

the forecast for Saturday’s game between the New Orleans Saints and the Seattle Seahawks calls for gusty winds and lots of rain.

Basically, just the way the Seahawks like it at CenturyLink Field.

The temperature at kickoff is expected to be 47 degrees with a 90 percent chance of rain, and some of it could be heavy. Sustained winds are predicted to be between 20 and 25 mph, with 40-mph gusts possible.

The Seahawks, who have won 15 of their past 16 homes games, believe those types of conditions play into their hands with their power running game and aggressive defense, which allowed the fewest points in the NFL this season.

 

[cdumler7]

I understand what you are saying and agree with your premise that statistically speaking this game should favor the Seahawks even more than say a neutral weather game. All statistics though seem to have those few minor anomalies. They are not enough to throw off the numbers over a long set of testing like I said 9 times out of 10 the results end in the way that you would expect. That 1 out of 10 though that it doesn't can't completely be ignored.


Throw in there are other statistics that do support the Saints winning this game such as 6 seeds since 2005 have a 5-2 or 6-2 record (can't quite remember) against #1 seeds. This has me a little worried for the Bronco game as well but my guess is by the end of the weekend that record will be 6-4 with both 1 seeds advancing. Crazier things though have happened so we shall see.


Also on the turnovers just look at the last game between the Saints and Seahawks. When the game was still 0-0 and Lynch (that guy that never fumbles) fumbles the ball but is recovered by Seattle. What happens if say New Orleans recovers that? Throw in then Saints next series Seattle forces a turnover and takes it to the house. Then on Seattle's next possession the Saints had an interception only to see the guy hit the ground and have the ball bounce off his body. Say this week the Saints players don't drop those balls or the bounce goes their way on a fumble. Turnovers allowed the Seahawks to really open up that first game where just as easy all those turnovers could have gone the Saints way and that game is a completely different game.

 

[tshirt]

Seattle Times:

Here are a few good forecasts — ours, Weather.com, and wunderground.com, the latter of which focuses solely on the possible conditions at the CLink during the game tomorrow.

All show basically a near-certainty of rain, and relatively strong winds.

All of that would seem to favor the Seahawks, who play in those sorts of conditions more often and aren’t as reliant on being able to throw the ball as the Saints.

 

[Doublejive]

Well i have said my opinion on the freaking weather i just can't wait for the freaking GAME!

 

[cdumler7]

Wilson averages 25 pass attempts per game. Brees averages 40. You don't think this has a huge effect on what looks like Seattle's reliance on the deep pass? The fact is the Saints as a team rely much more on the passing game than Seattle does and that is a big disadvantage against the best pass defense in the league in bad weather.

Also, based on what Harvin did in his very brief appearance this year against Minnesota, he's going to have a very noticeable effect on this game. He's a game changing play maker and doesn't need much to break a big play. I don't know what more I can say to convince you (probably nothing) but your assessment of these points is pretty far off IMO.

Bad weather does help the offense in footing is not as good though. Because of this with the offensive player knowing where they are going they can make better cuts compared to a defensive player leading to defensive players falling on a more regular basis.

And yes you are right that the passing attempts would make a difference but Seattle offense is geared towards running the ball then using that for the play action which usually means deeper plays. So if anybody has to adjust in the passing game it would be Seattle for this game as they will have to change how they attack as that deep pass won't be available as often. Not saying Wilson can't adjust to that but like some have said if NO has to adjust to a more running game then shouldn't it be fair to say that seattle has to adjust their passing game?

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

And are you more likely to win a game in which the other team has a higher chance of not being close in a low scoring game because their risk of turnovers and other unforced errors is higher?

Yeah.... That's what I thought

I'm saying I agree the overall score may be lower, but there is a much greater chance that the Saints are impacted by the weather which helps ensure the Seahawks have better momentum and a greater chance of winning. Until you refute that your points are entirely moot.

It doesn't matter who is impacted more. What matters is the fucking score. If you are losing by less, you have a better chance for one fluke play and the win.

Use logic

 

[SonnyCID]

You beat the Saints 34 to 7 in perfect weather. Why would any change in that formula be good for the Hawks

OK, if we look at it like that, couldnt we say, "the saints scored 7 points on this defense in good weather, worse weather should equal less points"?

I dont think anyone would expect another 4 score blowout in any conditions, even if the weather was perfect tomorrow. But imo, inclimate weather favors the team with à great defense, rather than à weak and getting dealer D. And it favors the team that has been commited to the run for years, rather than the team that rarely ran at all this year. We'll see what happens, but this is hardly something that tilts the favor to the saints.

 

[Podunkparte]

Bad weather does help the offense in footing is not as good though. Because of this with the offensive player knowing where they are going they can make better cuts compared to a defensive player leading to defensive players falling on a more regular basis.

And yes you are right that the passing attempts would make a difference but Seattle offense is geared towards running the ball then using that for the play action which usually means deeper plays. So if anybody has to adjust in the passing game it would be Seattle for this game as they will have to change how they attack as that deep pass won't be available as often. Not saying Wilson can't adjust to that but like some have said if NO has to adjust to a more running game then shouldn't it be fair to say that seattle has to adjust their passing game?

And yet, whichever team has to adjust their offense against the better defense is again at a disadvantage. If NO has to shy away from their offensive strength and run the ball against the Seattle D, I have even more confidence Seattle wins this game by 10

 

[tshirt]

from today: "Renton Seahawks rally is on. Fans braving strong winds and rain."