Weather will be a factor in Seattle

[R.J. MacReady]

40 mph winds dont exactly do many favors for the saints offense either.

Any type of slower game does not help the Hawks. It's is still there advantage but there odds were better when they can do all the things they can do.

 

[tshirt]

talkshow host at 710 ESPN Seattle.

[ame]http://twitter.com/TheMichaelGrey/status/421695454678507521[/ame]

 

[tshirt]

pic taken yesterday in Seattle of a plane flying the 12th man flag

 

[WizardHawk]

You are making the assumption that you will have the continued success of running the ball in a 1 dimensional offense. Can you really run the ball well all day when they know the run is coming?

You still have the advantage there to a degree ...but this is now a "slower" game. You had a better advantage in a good weather dual threat game.

First of all I've already answered that by saying if any of you think that this is a run only game then you aren't a student of football. They will not pass as often, and will favor shorter passes, but the passing game is not going to be absent for either. Screens, dumps, slants, short crosses are still going to be in the game plan for both and if they cheat up the safeties and leave man on the deep routes you will still see both go down field.

Even in wind you just throw a faster ball in man coverage to the open side of your receiver and either he gets it or neither do.

You did get the memo that Harvin is back to playing for Seattle right? He will line up at RB and every WR slot on the field. He will COMMAND their defense to adjust to where he is and watch him all day no matter what the weather is. Cram the box and he will have openings on quick routes that will gash them for major yards.

But now you all keep missing what it will do to the Saints offense. If you assume it makes Seattle even more 1 dimensional than they are then what on earth is it doing to the Brees passing game? That's right, it takes EVEN MORE from them than it will from Seattle. How can that not be right? So the net favors Seattle. Period.

 

[tshirt]

Seahawks' stadium designed to punished the visiting team sideline with the wind and rain while keeping home team sideline dry. HA HA HA I love it

The Seattle Times:

"In the office he shares with meteorologists, graphic engineers and various scientists (called RWDI), he studies wind patterns, builds wind tunnels and models all to determine precisely where wind will blow and rain will fall.
...
Soligo will not talk about the specifics of his research for the Seahawks, but according to those familiar with the project, the RWDI people — using years of information from the climatic data center in North Carolina — discovered that the winds at the new stadium will carry right over the roof on the west side. This should leave the west stands, the west sideline and even part of the field on the west side relatively dry, while putting the east sideline straight in the face of a sometimes bitter wind.
Using this knowledge, the stadium was built with the Seahawks' bench on the west sideline, exposing opponents to the elements on the east side. And if you don't think this is important, just ask the Dallas Cowboys, who couldn't handle the rain that whipped in their faces last December.
"We knew all week what it was going to be like, there's just no way to prepare for it," Cowboys kick returner Reggie Swinton said after their 29-3 loss here.
"In any stadium or arena we design, we create a home-field advantage," said Ellerbe Becket's Kelly Kerns, who oversaw the building of the stadium."

note that it also says, as soon as the Seahawks moved out of their dome and start playing outdoors, "they discovered the weather brought a definite advantage. Teams that came in to play them did not adjust well to the wind and the icy rain."

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/AJHanc/status/421693890127622144[/ame]

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/elandes/status/420997547864248320[/ame]

 

[R.J. MacReady]

People who think like they they do are the reason why our casinos hold 28% on blackjack and have substantially increased profits off games like mini baccarat and roulette after we added the history boards to them.

I'm not sure why this is so complicated, but it would appear we are wasting our time trying to explain the basics of it. Seems pretty straight forward to me that the Saints are going to have to deviate from who they are far more than Seattle will so any net gains they get in Seattle going more one dimensional are more than made up by the Saints having to do it even more.

If the Saints are simply going to stack the box and try to stop Lynch (and god we hope they do. It will leave harvin on screen/dump pass feasts ALL DAY) then wouldn't Seattle do the same thing? I mean we have mother nature taking away what the Saints do best for us and force them into running plays we specialize in stopping. How on earth does that not favor us? I really don't get how they are missing this.

You beat the Saints 34 to 7 in perfect weather. Why would any change in that formula be good for the Hawks

 

[tshirt]

You beat the Saints 34 to 7 in perfect weather. Why would any change in that formula be good for the Hawks

that was in 41 degree weather. not supposed to be that cold in Seattle this time. Seattle would like the cold again, but the wind and rain do the trick even better

 

[tshirt]

[ame]http://twitter.com/JovanHeer/status/421735836481101824[/ame]

 

[WizardHawk]

You beat the Saints 34 to 7 in perfect weather. Why would any change in that formula be good for the Hawks

Probabilities math doesn't dictate what the definite outcome will be. It assesses risk of ruin and gives you the odds of it happening to both sides.

The first game had lots of things go Seattle's way, and lots of things go against the Saints. If they replayed that same game in those conditions 10 times what are the odds the result is the same in each? Pretty much zero. Maybe the Saints win 3 out of those 10? And perhaps most of the 7 others would be far closer than that outcome. That game was the perfect storm in a sense.

We all expect that if this game was played in neutral weather (but still in Seattle) that the Seahawks still win more than 50% of the time and most of the wins would be far closer in score.

Adding in the weather then does what to the equation? That depends on how you evaluate the added risk of ruin for both sides. Until someone shows me something I'm missing Seattle is built to play in this and will do nearly no adjusting to their game plan for it while the Saints absolutely will. That MUST favor Seattle if you believe both of those statements to be true.

 

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[ame]http://twitter.com/TheJayBurns/status/421716800708292608[/ame]

 

[Podunkparte]

This thread has run its course. Can we lock it down other than tshirt's cool pictures?

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

So, if the season had played out differently and Seattle was hosting this game, but as an underdog, the cold and wet weather would benefit them? But since they're the favorite it works against them?

No no no.

They would be more likely to win than they otherwise would as an underdog in normal conditions!

Do you understand?

 

[JDM]

People who think like they they do are the reason why our casinos hold 28% on blackjack and have substantially increased profits off games like mini baccarat and roulette after we added the history boards to them.

I'm not sure why this is so complicated, but it would appear we are wasting our time trying to explain the basics of it. Seems pretty straight forward to me that the Saints are going to have to deviate from who they are far more than Seattle will so any net gains they get in Seattle going more one dimensional are more than made up by the Saints having to do it even more.

If the Saints are simply going to stack the box and try to stop Lynch (and god we hope they do. It will leave harvin on screen/dump pass feasts ALL DAY) then wouldn't Seattle do the same thing? I mean we have mother nature taking away what the Saints do best for us and force them into running plays we specialize in stopping. How on earth does that not favor us? I really don't get how they are missing this.

This weather = lower scoring game

Lower scoring game = closer game

Closer game = better chance for the underdog to make plays at the right time and win.



This is why severe weather always favors the underdogs. When a team that was reasonably likely to win by multiple touchdowns and have the game in hand down the stretch is now much more likely to be involved in a one score game, that favors the other team. They may or may not make the one drive they need to at the right time down the stretch, but they have a better shot at that than keeping a game close where they were significantly outmatched by their own merits.

A closer game + randomness favors the underdog.

 

[tshirt]

Saints getting on their plane to head to the Pacific Northwest:

New Orleans Saints: "About to take off for Seattle!"

 

[cdumler7]

First of all I've already answered that by saying if any of you think that this is a run only game then you aren't a student of football. They will not pass as often, and will favor shorter passes, but the passing game is not going to be absent for either. Screens, dumps, slants, short crosses are still going to be in the game plan for both and if they cheat up the safeties and leave man on the deep routes you will still see both go down field.

Even in wind you just throw a faster ball in man coverage to the open side of your receiver and either he gets it or neither do.

You did get the memo that Harvin is back to playing for Seattle right? He will line up at RB and every WR slot on the field. He will COMMAND their defense to adjust to where he is and watch him all day no matter what the weather is. Cram the box and he will have openings on quick routes that will gash them for major yards.

But now you all keep missing what it will do to the Saints offense. If you assume it makes Seattle even more 1 dimensional than they are then what on earth is it doing to the Brees passing game? That's right, it takes EVEN MORE from them than it will from Seattle. How can that not be right? So the net favors Seattle. Period.

Couple of things Russell Wilson relies on the deeper ball more than Brees. If you look at yards in the air per attempt Wilson smokes Brees so the Saints Passing game should find more success than that of the Seahawks. Yes having Harvin back should help some but how good is he really going to be with missing essentially the whole season? Throw in how much are they going to let him play since he hasn't had a lot of game experience? I doubt much.

Look you don't seem to be getting almost everybody in here is still predicting the Seahawks to win this game. The weather being thrown in though presents a wild card to both teams. Yes the advantage looks like it favors the Seahawks as they do play in rain and are the better run team and have a good defense. All it takes though is for a few mistakes here and there which can happen in this kind of weather for the Saints to get back in this game. As someone else mentioned the Seahawks in good weather crushed the Saints...not sure you can hope for a better outcome. Now bad weather could help the Seahawks but it could help the Saints too we will just have to see. 9 times out of 10 yes I would say Seahawks win this game but with this being a pressure filled game and the Seahawks being a young inexperienced team I could see this going the way of the Saints as well.

 

[Doublejive]

I find it funny all those years watching the Hawks play in the KingDome and they go on the road and people say how the weather will affect them and it did some games,but then when the Hawks play outside and it does have rain (Which this team has played many in) it does not mean a damn thing,funny how things change.

 

[WizardHawk]

No no no.

They would be more likely to win than they otherwise would as an underdog in normal conditions!

Do you understand?

no no no, because you are missing the obvious advantages/disadvantages for both teams. Do you understand?

Look. This is really easy to get.

There is an increased risk of turnovers and other unforced errors for Seattle in these conditions than if it was neutral weather. We can all agree on that right? Check.

However there is an EVEN HIGHER risk for the Saints who are: Playing on the road in a hostile environment which compounds the weather problem, are a team that isn't used to playing in wet or windy conditions (unlike seattle that at least plays in rain often even if the wind isn't as common), and are going to force them FAR MORE than Seattle to change their identity on offense and make them be someone other than who they have been offensively all year.

If you can't dispute any of that then you are left with no other conclusion than the net effect is an even greater chance that Seattle wins. You can't come up with any other conclusion. You simply can't.