I think it also sometimes comes down to how much on the field gametime is he going to get. If he chooses the top team, does he get in over the current kid(s) or sit the bench like Seastrunk ended up doing before transferring out. On a lesser team, he might be their fulltime starter, make all the difference by helping them win more games, get more media attention, and have a higher upside.
^^^^THIS^^^^
Duck fans are a funny bunch. They think that just because a kid is "leaning" their way, they will get him because their shoes match their purse and they are "fashion forward".
During USC's run, we had top recruits de-commit and even transfer all of the time. Sometimes it's because they don't want to wait to play, sometimes they might think they will never play, sometimes they want to go someplace where they will be "the man" etc. Heck, USC had one kid choose tOSU over USC because he saw how much fun the practices were and felt that USC didn't take our football "seriously"!!
These are 17 and 18 year old kids. No one knows how they will respond to anything.