Should Detroit re-sign Goff this offseason or wait till after next season?

[belcherboy]

Big difference between fully guaranteed at signing and a guarantee that kicks in after a period of time.

Yup! Here are the contract details that I've found:

 

[belcherboy]

53M per may seem like an overpay, but let’s look at the facts.

Herbert is paid 52.5M per
Murray is paid 46M per
Watson is paid 46M per
Cousins is paid 45M per ( and is recovering from an Achilles injury and is old )

Goff has done more than all of those guys.

Would you rather have one of them?

Two of those guys have more guaranteed money in their contract as well. It probably makes sense to take less money per year, if more of it is guaranteed.

 

[fastforward]

Yup! Here are the contract details that I've found:

Presumably there are little or no guarantees in the $57M he's due in 2028, (which will be year 5 of this deal). Also he's only getting $155M over the 1st 3 years of the extension - plus the $27M he was originally due for 2024. If the deal is $182M over the 1st 4 years, (plus an option year), then the deal looks fairly sensible, subject to the Devil in the details.

 

[Old Lion]

If I’m an NFL GM navigating the cap I make the assumption of a cap rise of $10 million per year. I treat anything above that $10 million estimate to be gravy. That’s a conservative approach but still leaves someone susceptible to a once in a lifetime pandemic hitting like it did in 2020. But what long term plan isn’t going to be impacted by events like that?

Be prepared as a fan to not be able to watch it on TV any more. At some point stations will not pay for the rights as they will get too expensive. The cap can only go up if ad and tv revenues go up. At some point it will reach a point like Premier league soccer where they will have to go to 1 separate service just for that.

 

[belcherboy]

Presumably there are little or no guarantees in the $57M he's due in 2028, (which will be year 5 of this deal). Also he's only getting $155M over the 1st 3 years of the extension - plus the $27M he was originally due for 2024. If the deal is $182M over the 1st 4 years, (plus an option year), then the deal looks fairly sensible, subject to the Devil in the details.

It will be the 4th year of this deal, as he will play out the last year of his previous contract from what I understand.

 

[Packerpro 99]

Love is next.. 225 million?

 

[Old Lion]

53M per may seem like an overpay, but let’s look at the facts.

Herbert is paid 52.5M per
Murray is paid 46M per
Watson is paid 46M per
Cousins is paid 45M per ( and is recovering from an Achilles injury and is old )

Goff has done more than all of those guys.

Would you rather have one of them?

Good point. Although I am not sure Goff means as much to the Lions success as those guys do to those teams. Lions have several high level players especially on offense.

 

[belcherboy]

Be prepared as a fan to not be able to watch it on TV any more. At some point stations will not pay for the rights as they will get too expensive. The cap can only go up if ad and tv revenues go up. At some point it will reach a point like Premier league soccer where they will have to go to 1 separate service just for that.

I think there is a lot of truth to this. On top of that, Google paid a buttload to get Sunday Ticket. I have the student discount right now. It was $109 for the season last year. It's $199 this year. Prices and access to games are going to start becoming pricy and hard to find without a subscription package. Hopefully they continue to broadcast over the air with the local teams during the normal Sunday time slots. Although it doesn't help me in Georgia, it does keep people interested in the team when they can watch it for free (or with a basic cable or tv streaming package).

I hate it as I think that is how the NFL got so popular, whereas baseball is near impossible to find games....even with the local teams. I have friends with the MLB package and they still have more than a few blackout games they complain about.

 

[belcherboy]

Good point. Although I am not sure Goff means as much to the Lions success as those guys do to those teams. Lions have several high level players especially on offense.

I don't know about that. I think Goff has definitely been better the past few seasons than Watson and Murray, especially when you factor in their injuries. I'd also bet more on Goff than Cousins who is coming off a major injury and is 35 years old.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Be prepared as a fan to not be able to watch it on TV any more. At some point stations will not pay for the rights as they will get too expensive. The cap can only go up if ad and tv revenues go up. At some point it will reach a point like Premier league soccer where they will have to go to 1 separate service just for that.

And I and most others will buy the access. NFL football is one of the reasons why I have TV in the first place.

 

[belcherboy]

And I and most others will buy the access. NFL football is one of the reasons why I have TV in the first place.

I buy Sunday Ticket just about every year (except when Youtube TV allowed you to watch the local channels of whatever location the subscription was based in).

I think it is a slippery slope. If they give Netflix, Prime, Peacock, Apple Tv, etc. games each year, it may drive some people to skip a few games rather than subscribe to 4-5 streaming services and a cable/streaming tv package, along with those who have to subscribe to Sunday Ticket to get out of area games.

I don't blame them for cashing in as much as they can while the NFL is red hot though!

 

[jarntt]

And I and most others will buy the access. NFL football is one of the reasons why I have TV in the first place.

Me too, but here is my issue with the streaming services buying games: the functionality and convenience. I have pretty much every service already so the $'s are pretty much meaningless to me but if a new one pops up that has NFL football, I'll just pay for that also. However, I find the channels more laggy, I find the rewind/fast forward/pause options shitty and I hate that I can't very easily just flip around to something else during commercials or just at any point if I so choose. I hate watching streaming games for the above reasons.

 

[shopson67]

I buy Sunday Ticket just about every year (except when Youtube TV allowed you to watch the local channels of whatever location the subscription was based in).

I think it is a slippery slope. If they give Netflix, Prime, Peacock, Apple Tv, etc. games each year, it may drive some people to skip a few games rather than subscribe to 4-5 streaming services and a cable/streaming tv package, along with those who have to subscribe to Sunday Ticket to get out of area games.

I don't blame them for cashing in as much as they can while the NFL is red hot though!

I can't rationalize Sunday ticket. All those other streaming platforms have other stuff to watch all year long. Red Zone channel gets me through the Sunday games that aren't televised locally well enough.

 

[belcherboy]

I can't rationalize Sunday ticket. All those other streaming platforms have other stuff to watch all year long. Red Zone channel gets me through the Sunday games that aren't televised locally well enough.

It's my only legal option if I want to watch most the Lions games in Georgia. Fortunately, they do play 3-4 nationally televised games each year, but the other 12+ games I would need Sunday Ticket to watch them.

 

[fastforward]

It will be the 4th year of this deal, as he will play out the last year of his previous contract from what I understand.

He was under contract for 2024 at $27.3M. He should now be under contract for '24, '25, '26, '27, & '28. The 2024 contract was under market expectations when he signed it with the Rams. (Normal for the Rams who use it as a base for extensions). If the Lions had forced him to play his contract I doubt he would have re-signed with them.

 

[belcherboy]

He was under contract for 2024 at $27.3M. He should now be under contract for '24, '25, '26, '27, & '28. The 2024 contract was under market expectations when he signed it with the Rams. (Normal for the Rams who use it as a base for extensions). If the Lions had forced him to play his contract I doubt he would have re-signed with them.

You said it would be “the 5th of this deal”. This current deal is only 4 years. From my understanding he is playing out the end of the contract he signed with the Rams before the Lions contract begins in 2025.

Am I wrong here? (I wouldn’t be shocked if I’m wrong)

 

[Stakesarehigh]

I buy Sunday Ticket just about every year (except when Youtube TV allowed you to watch the local channels of whatever location the subscription was based in).

I think it is a slippery slope. If they give Netflix, Prime, Peacock, Apple Tv, etc. games each year, it may drive some people to skip a few games rather than subscribe to 4-5 streaming services and a cable/streaming tv package, along with those who have to subscribe to Sunday Ticket to get out of area games.

I don't blame them for cashing in as much as they can while the NFL is red hot though!

If you add all that together it's about 50 bucks. The trick is getting local stations.

 

[belcherboy]

If you add all that together it's about 50 bucks. The trick is getting local stations.

Oh, I have most of them now. The problem is that they are losing money trying to gain market share (although I think Netflix is finally turning a profit). Those prices have to begin rising with what they are paying for the NFL and other things. Also, they are really starting to come down on account sharing too. It will be interesting to see how things change the next few years.

Yeah, the local stations will likely cost you at least $50 a month through the cheapest cable or streaming options, unless you can get them for free with an antenna. Although I LOVE my DVR option with games.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Oh, I have most of them now. The problem is that they are losing money trying to gain market share (although I think Netflix is finally turning a profit). Those prices have to begin rising with what they are paying for the NFL and other things.

Yeah, the local stations will likely cost you at least $50 a month through the cheapest cable or streaming options, unless you can get them for free with an antenna. Although I LOVE my DVR option with games.

About a 100 bucks total. 120 on the high side. Better than most cable packages and you get a billion shows.

 

[belcherboy]

About a 100 bucks total. 120 on the high side. Better than most cable packages and you get a billion shows.

I have YouTube tv at $73, Amazon prime at $10, peacock $5, Hulu $3, Disney $3, and HBO comes with my phone right now each month (I get student discounts on some of them).