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Should Detroit re-sign Goff this offseason or wait till after next season?

belcherboy

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It's way too high for a player of Goff's talent within the structure of the NFL salary cap. The contract structure is just out of whack. The next QB up (maybe Dak if he signs) will also pretty likely be overpaid if he is not elite just like Hurts, Murray, Watson, etc are all overpaid. Until teams stop giving in and just handing the "next man up" the highest or close to highest contract because it's "their turn", even if they aren't one of the best at the position, it isn't going to stop and this isn't just for QB. The problem is that as soon as an owner tries to take a stand someone else will just give the player what they want.

nah...the NFL is no different from any other business...you spend what is in the budget.

Giving Goff that much money isn't going to hurt the Lions that much (although I agree it is on the high end right now...but not an outrageous guarantee of money). The salary cap is going up $30 million next year. Watch how quickly the top paid players move towards the $70 million a season next year or two.

Screenshot 2024-05-15 at 10.18.35 AM.png
 

belcherboy

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Just can't admit you were wrong. It's not a big deal, but it's a bad look to try and move the goal posts to guaranteed money in an attempt to keep fighting it instead of just admitting it...

How am I wrong exactly? I agree with Sportrac's assessment (posted it in here multiple times). They said he would get $168 million guaranteed. He got $170 million. Should I have been more precise in the overall amount? Sure. But all that matters is the guaranteed money, right?

If perfection is what you were looking for, I was off. If a decently close prediction is what really counts, I think I did alright. No?
 

jarntt

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How am I wrong exactly? I agree with Sportrac's assessment (posted it in here multiple times). They said he would get $168 million guaranteed. He got $170 million. Should I have been more precise in the overall amount? Sure. But all that matters is the guaranteed money, right?
Because he got $212M over 4 years and you know it and you know that was the topic.
 

belcherboy

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Because he got $212M over 4 years and you know it and you know that was the topic.

I think the prediction I gave was something like $220 million over 5 years, with $168 million guaranteed. He got $212 million over 4 years with $170 guaranteed.

I'm not sure why you're being so critical of it. That's actually pretty darn good seeing that if he makes it to that 5th year in the contract (he still has one more year on his current contract), he must have earned that last year by his performance. The Lions are only on the hook for $170 million, as far as I can tell if Goff craps the bed the next few years. He likely won't even be in the top 10 players of guaranteed money by the time the contract begins.

The fact is that all that matters is guaranteed money. Am I wrong there? I've been wrong a few times already today.
 

fightinfunbags

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nah...the NFL is no different from any other business...you spend what is in the budget.

Giving Goff that much money isn't going to hurt the Lions that much (although I agree it is on the high end right now...but not an outrageous guarantee of money). The salary cap is going up $30 million next year. Watch how quickly the top paid players move towards the $70 million a season next year or two.

View attachment 362162
On another note, that must have been a huge jump in revenue to see the cap jump 30 million dollars when they were trending at 10-11 million per year jumps until Covid. Maybe this is just catching up to the pace lost with Covid.

Or…is this the Taylor Swift bump?
 

jarntt

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I think the prediction I gave was something like $220 million over 5 years, with $168 million guaranteed. He got $212 million over 4 years with $170 guaranteed.

I'm not sure why you're being so critical of it. That's actually pretty darn good seeing that if he makes it to that 5th year in the contract (he still has one more year on his current contract), he must have earned that last year by his performance. The Lions are only on the hook for $170 million, as far as I can tell if Goff craps the bed the next few years. He likely won't even be in the top 10 players of guaranteed money by the time the contract begins.

The fact is that all that matters is guaranteed money. Am I wrong there? I've been wrong a few times already today.
Because that's off by $10M per year (220/5 = $44M) and the discussion we had was always per year.


I'm just going off what was reported. If you wanted to only use guaranteed money then you may likely need to remove the 4th year in your calculation and divide by 3 which would still put it much higher than you were saying even though everyone told you it was going to be $50M plus. No one is saying that the guaranteed money isn't the important thing, but you have to calculate your math one way or the other and it comes out at $50M plus no matter how you slice it...again, just based on what is being reported. We won't know until the details come out for sure
 

belcherboy

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On another note, that must have been a huge jump in revenue to see the cap jump 30 million dollars when they were trending at 10-11 million per year jumps until Covid. Maybe this is just catching up to the pace lost with Covid.

Or…is this the Taylor Swift bump?

Probably both. The NFL is the king of sports. That's why these contracts really don't matter right now. If something happens to the economy or they have a big falling out with the public, and revenues significantly drop, these contracts will be an HUGE weight to these teams. I think that is why teams hated what the Browns did with guaranteed money.

Fortunately, it turned out to be a TERRIBLE move to fully guarantee a contract as large at that and I don't think we'll see it again anytime soon unless Mahomes plays hardball on his next contract.
 

fightinfunbags

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Probably both. The NFL is the king of sports. That's why these contracts really don't matter right now. If something happens to the economy or they have a big falling out with the public, and revenues significantly drop, these contracts will be an HUGE weight to these teams. I think that is why teams hated what the Browns did with guaranteed money.

Fortunately, it turned out to be a TERRIBLE move to fully guarantee a contract as large at that and I don't think we'll see it again anytime soon unless Mahomes plays hardball on his next contract.
If I’m an NFL GM navigating the cap I make the assumption of a cap rise of $10 million per year. I treat anything above that $10 million estimate to be gravy. That’s a conservative approach but still leaves someone susceptible to a once in a lifetime pandemic hitting like it did in 2020. But what long term plan isn’t going to be impacted by events like that?
 

jarntt

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If I’m an NFL GM navigating the cap I make the assumption of a cap rise of $10 million per year. I treat anything above that $10 million estimate to be gravy. That’s a conservative approach but still leaves someone susceptible to a once in a lifetime pandemic hitting like it did in 2020. But what long term plan isn’t going to be impacted by events like that?
I don't think there is any doubt the cap will keep going up for at least the short run. Now a separate contract with Netflix for two Christmas Day games is coming after the Amazon and other streaming deals. All of these "little" things add up to more and more money and a higher cap. At some point it may crash and fall apart but that certainly appears to be at least a couple of contract cycles away.

 

belcherboy

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Because that's off by $10M per year (220/5 = $44M) and the discussion we had was always per year.


I'm just going off what was reported. If you wanted to only use guaranteed money then you may likely need to remove the 4th year in your calculation and divide by 3 which would still put it much higher than you were saying even though everyone told you it was going to be $50M plus.

No doubt that the price per season significantly jumps if they dump him in year 3, but once again we are talking about the total cost of the contract to the team.

2027 isn't that far away, so in order for him to get to that final year of the contract in 2028, he has to perform very well the next next 4 years. On top of that, in 2028 $57 million will be out of the top 10 salaries. It really isn't a terrible contract, in my opinion, but I am a Lion's fan and am hoping for the best.
 

belcherboy

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I don't think there is any doubt the cap will keep going up for at least the short run. Now a separate contract with Netflix for two Christmas Day games is coming after the Amazon and other streaming deals. All of these "little" things add up to more and more money and a higher cap. At some point it may crash and fall apart but that certainly appears to be at least a couple of contract cycles away.


I agree...it will take a huge economic crash to even have a possibility to derail the NFL. Even then, we've seen in many countries outside the US that even when their economy crumbles, the soccer teams aren't really affected that much. I think the NFL is like that in America.

It's budget is probably viewed a lot like the government....it's considered a loss if it doesn't grow by at least 3-4% each year.
 

jarntt

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No doubt that the price per season significantly jumps if they dump him in year 3, but once again we are talking about the total cost of the contract to the team.

2027 isn't that far away, so in order for him to get to that final year of the contract in 2028, he has to perform very well the next next 4 years. On top of that, in 2028 $57 million will be out of the top 10 salaries. It really isn't a terrible contract, in my opinion, but I am a Lion's fan and am hoping for the best.
I'm not saying it is a terrible contract. I'm saying it is just as everyone expected and was telling you and it is over $50M per no matter how you slice it - $212M over 4 is over $50M and guaranteed money/3 (because you only get out of the non-guaranteed $ by him not playing year 4) is $50M+ per.
 

belcherboy

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I'm not saying it is a terrible contract.
It's way too high for a player of Goff's talent within the structure of the NFL salary cap.
I guess I confused these two statements by you. I assumed you meant it was a terrible contract if it is "way too high".

I'm saying it is just as everyone expected and was telling you and it is over $50M per no matter how you slice it - $212M over 4 is over $50M and guaranteed money/3 (because you only get out of the non-guaranteed $ by him not playing year 4) is $50M+ per.

I think you get caught up in the price per season, kind of like a car salesmen asking you how much you want to pay per month for your car. The price per year isn't insignificant (and I thought it would be lower than $50 million per), but the true measuring stick of an NFL contract is the guaranteed money. Just my two cents.

The best question asked should be, how long is this contract going to hold you back if the player doesn't continue a high level of play? With the proven rise of contracts the last few years, and the large increase in the salary cap, this isn't a bad contract. The Lions can walk away from it in year 3. That's really nice, in my opinion.

Once again, I'm not taking credit for the prediction, it was Sportstrac that made it and I just quoted and agreed with them. I personally think they really NAILED it with their $168 million guaranteed prediction, in my opinion, even in spite of the huge rise in the salary cap.
 

jarntt

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I guess I confused these two statements by you. I assumed you meant it was a terrible contract if it is "way too high".



I think you get caught up in the price per season, kind of like a car salesmen asking you how much you want to pay per month for your car. The price per year isn't insignificant (and I thought it would be lower than $50 million per), but the true measuring stick of an NFL contract is the guaranteed money. Just my two cents.

The best question asked should be, how long is this contract going to hold you back if the player doesn't continue a high level of play? With the proven rise of contracts the last few years, and the large increase in the salary cap, this isn't a bad contract. The Lions can walk away from it in year 3. That's really nice, in my opinion.

Once again, I'm not taking credit for the prediction, it was Sportstrac that made it and I just quoted and agreed with them. I personally think they really NAILED it with their $168 million guaranteed prediction, in my opinion, even in spite of the huge rise in the salary cap.
Let me clarify. Its way too high like all non elite QBs, but it's 100% in line with what was expected all along.

You were the one talking about per year amounts. You were coming up with explanations of why you thought it would be under $50M per and I told you it will be over. Again, if you want to talk only guaranteed money you likely are going to need to divide the contract by 3 years not 4 years which will still put it over $50M per most likely. Also, unless he really shits the bed he likely will be restructured at least once and probably multiple times in the first couple of years to free up cap space, which will de facto make it pretty certain that he will get the 4th year to avoid an insane cap hit. I'll explain with numbers once the specific details are posted if I am not explaining this part as clearly as I am attempting.
 

jarntt

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I guess I confused these two statements by you. I assumed you meant it was a terrible contract if it is "way too high".



I think you get caught up in the price per season, kind of like a car salesmen asking you how much you want to pay per month for your car. The price per year isn't insignificant (and I thought it would be lower than $50 million per), but the true measuring stick of an NFL contract is the guaranteed money. Just my two cents.

The best question asked should be, how long is this contract going to hold you back if the player doesn't continue a high level of play? With the proven rise of contracts the last few years, and the large increase in the salary cap, this isn't a bad contract. The Lions can walk away from it in year 3. That's really nice, in my opinion.

Once again, I'm not taking credit for the prediction, it was Sportstrac that made it and I just quoted and agreed with them. I personally think they really NAILED it with their $168 million guaranteed prediction, in my opinion, even in spite of the huge rise in the salary cap.

Can't compare until we see the details, but on it's surface, Spotrac predicted a 4 year deal and was off by $32M (almost $10M per year) and $20M in guaranteed money

Actual 4 year $212M ($53M per); Spotrac 4 year $180M ($45M per)
Actual $170M guaranteed; Spotrac $150M guaranteed
 

belcherboy

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Just can't admit you were wrong. It's not a big deal, but it's a bad look to try and move the goal posts to guaranteed money in an attempt to keep fighting it instead of just admitting it...
I still think they can get him in the mid $40’s, but after his playoff run, his number might increase to the $50’s. Hopefully they can agree on something in the $40’s.
Yeah, a lot of what I'm reading has Goff north of $50 million, especially after Cousins got his new contract. I imagine that is why the Lions haven't got the deal done yet. They are likely in no hurry right now to take on that massive of a contract.

View attachment 357078

By the way, I think I've been fairly consistent in this thread and have pivoted a bit as market has moved significantly since it was originally posted. ( especially before the two big playoff wins)
 

ANGELAKERAMS

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ANGELAKERAMS

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53M per may seem like an overpay, but let’s look at the facts.

Herbert is paid 52.5M per
Murray is paid 46M per
Watson is paid 46M per
Cousins is paid 45M per ( and is recovering from an Achilles injury and is old )

Goff has done more than all of those guys.

Would you rather have one of them?
 

fastforward

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Do you want to bet that a year from now or even less that he won't even be in the top 5 paid QB's? Heck, he isn't even in the top 5 guaranteed contracts now.

View attachment 362160

It's a 4 year, $179 million guarantee. That is $45 million a year. Now, it could become something larger, but I imagine that will only be because he is producing good results.

It's more than I thought he would get, but I don't think he is going to be a top 5 paid QB's this time next year. He may be closer to #10 than top 5.
Big difference between fully guaranteed at signing and a guarantee that kicks in after a period of time.
 
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