Definitely the outlier. It's much more common that the first one is off the board in the top handful of picks, and top 10 the vast majority of drafts. I have no idea how strong of a class it is this year, but I think I saw today that Mayock's top OL is a G from ND...so who knows.
And I'm not even PRETENDING I'm a draft expert, I don't follow college FB at all. Just going on the 'if there's a surprise run on CB's' school of thinking where a talented guy maybe slips.